Temperature in Canada increased to -2.89 celsius in 2023 from -4.18 celsius in 2022. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for Canada Average Temperature.

In 2023, the average temperature in Canada was 2.8 degrees Celsius above the 1961 to 1990 reference value. The warmest year so far in Canadian history was 2010, when the average temperature reached three degrees Celsius above the reference value.

The data consist of homogenized daily maximum, minimum and mean surface air temperatures for more than 330 locations in Canada; adjusted daily rainfall, snowfall and total precipitation for more than 460 locations. The data are given for the entire period of observation. Please refer to the papers below for detailed information regarding the procedures for homogenization and adjustment. References: Mekis, É. and L.A. Vincent, 2011: An overview of the second generation adjusted daily precipitation dataset for trend analysis in Canada. Atmosphere-Ocean, 49(2), 163-177. Vincent, L. A., X. L. Wang, E. J. Milewska, H. Wan, F. Yang, and V. Swail, 2012. A second generation of homogenized Canadian monthly surface air temperature for climate trend analysis, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D18110, doi:10.1029/2012JD017859. Wang, X.L, Y. Feng, L. A. Vincent, 2013. Observed changes in one-in-20 year extremes of Canadian surface air temperatures. Atmosphere-Ocean. Doi:10.1080/07055900.2013.818526.

The Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators (CESI) program provides data and information to track Canada's performance on key environmental sustainability issues. Indicators of Temperature change in Canada show the yearly and seasonal surface air temperature departures for the years 1948 to 2018. As well, they present a spatial distribution of surface air temperature departures for the year 2018. An annual departure (or anomaly) is the difference between the value for a given year and a baseline value. The baseline values used in these indicators are the annual and seasonal temperature averages for the reference period of 1961 to 1990 (often referred to as the 1961–1990 normal). The Temperature change in Canada indicators help show how Canada's surface air temperature has changed since nationwide recording of consistent and comparable climate observations began in 1948. Information is provided to Canadians in a number of formats including: static and interactive maps, charts and graphs, HTML and CSV data tables and downloadable reports. See supplementary documentation for data sources and details on how those data were collected and how the indicators were calculated. Supplemental Information Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators - Home page: https://www.canada.ca/environmental-indicators

According to high emissions forecast scenario, Canada's mean temperature is estimated to change by 2.3 degrees Celsius between 2031 and 2050. Northern Canada is estimated to see the biggest temperature changes, with figures above the national average, at 1.8 degrees Celsius or 2.7 degrees Celsius, depending on a low or high emission scenario.

Departures of temperature and precipitation from 1961 to 1990 normal, by Canada and climatic regions.

Mean Temperature Difference From Normal values are computed by subtracting the normal monthly average temperature from the average monthly temperature of the month. The average monthly temperature is computed by obtaining the mean value of average daily temperatures for a month. If the month was colder than normal the value computed will be negative and if it was warmer the value will be positive.

Mean Temperature Difference From Normal values are computed by subtracting the normal monthly average temperature from the average monthly temperature of the month. The average monthly temperature is computed by obtaining the mean value of average daily temperatures for a month. If the month was colder than normal the value computed will be negative and if it was warmer the value will be positive.

The Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators (CESI) program provides data and information to track Canada's performance on key environmental sustainability issues. Indicators of Temperature change in Canada show the yearly and seasonal surface air temperature departures for the years 1948 to 2018. As well, they present a spatial distribution of surface air temperature departures for the year 2018. An annual departure (or anomaly) is the difference between the value for a given year and a baseline value. The baseline values used in these indicators are the annual and seasonal temperature averages for the reference period of 1961 to 1990 (often referred to as the 1961–1990 normal). The Temperature change in Canada indicators help show how Canada's surface air temperature has changed since nationwide recording of consistent and comparable climate observations began in 1948. Information is provided to Canadians in a number of formats including: static and interactive maps, charts and graphs, HTML and CSV data tables and downloadable reports. See supplementary documentation for data sources and details on how those data were collected and how the indicators were calculated. Supplemental Information Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators - Home page: https://www.canada.ca/environmental-indicators

This feature service includes data on common variables of climate for Canada. Layers in this map service include daylight hours in December and June (solstice months), annual min, max, and mean temperatures, total rainfall and total snowfall. Data for all layers represent mean values from 1951 to 1980.Map Service published and hosted by Esri Canada, © 2020.Content Source(s):'Land Potential DataBase', Version 1.0, National Soil DataBase, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. 1997.'Climate5180', Version 1.0, National Soil DataBase, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. 1997.Coordinate System: Web Mercator Auxiliary Sphere (WKID 102100)

30-year Average Number of Days with Minimum Daily Temperature below -30 °C is defined as the count of climate days during the month where the minimum daily temperature was below -30 °C. These values are calculated across Canada in 10x10 km cells.

Gridded monthly, seasonal and annual mean temperature anomalies derived from daily minimum, maximum and mean surface air temperatures (degrees Celsius) is available at a 50km resolution across Canada. The Canadian gridded data (CANGRD) are interpolated from homogenized temperature (i.e., AHCCD datasets). Homogenized temperatures incorporate adjustments to the original station data to account for discontinuities from non-climatic factors, such as instrument changes or station relocation. The anomalies are the difference between the temperature for a given year or season and a baseline value (defined as the average over 1961-1990 as the reference period). The yearly and seasonal temperature anomalies were computed for the years 1948 to 2017. The data will continue to be updated every year.

Average annual temperatures in Canada are projected to rise under the different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), based on the historic baseline of 2.7 degrees Celsius (°C). Under the RCP 4.5 intermediate emission scenario, it is expected that temperatures will rise to 4.2 °C in the next decades and to 4.9 °C by mid-century. Temperatures will continue to rise to reach 5.5 °C by 2099, following the same scenario.

Contained within the 2nd Edition (1915) of the Atlas of Canada is a plate that shows 9 maps. Four maps show the average possible hours of sunshine for Canada in the summer months. There is a map for the entire summer and individual maps for each of the summer months (June, July, and August. The other five maps show the number of days during the year with temperatures above 32 degrees F (0 degrees C), 40 degrees F (4.4 degrees C), 50 degrees F (10 degrees C), 60 degrees F (15.6 degrees C) and 70 degrees F (21.1 degrees C). The temperature differences are indicated with solid or dashed red lines indicating the number of days each portion of Canada will experience above temperatures indicated. In some of the maps, major railway systems are shown.

Context

Who among us doesn't talk a little about the weather now and then? Will it rain tomorrow and get so cold to shake your chin or will it make that cracking sun? Does global warming exist?

With this dataset, you can apply machine learning tools to predict the average temperature of Detroit city based on historical data collected over 5 years.

Content

The given data set was produced from the Historical Hourly Weather Data [https://www.kaggle.com/selfishgene/historical-hourly-weather-data], which consists of about 5 years of hourly measurements of various weather attributes (eg. temperature, humidity, air pressure) from 30 US and Canadian cities.

From this rich database, a cutout was made by selecting only the city of Detroit (USA), highlighting only the temperature, converting it to Celsius degrees and keeping only one value for each date (corresponding to the average daytime temperature - from 9am to 5pm).

In addition, temperature values ​​were artificially and gradually increased by a few Celsius degrees over the available period. This will simulate a small global warming (or is it local?)...

In summary, the available dataset contains the average daily temperatures (collected during the day), artificially increased by a certain value, for the city of Detroit from October 2012 to November 2017.

The purpose of this dataset is to apply forecasting models in order to predict the value of the artificially warmed average daily temperature of Detroit.

See graph in the following image: black dots refer to the actual data and the blue line represents the predictive model (including a confidence area).

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Acknowledgements

This dataset wouldn't be possible without the previous work in Historical Hourly Weather Data.

Inspiration

What are the best forecasting models to address this particular problem? TBATS, ARIMA, Prophet? You tell me!

Seasonal and annual trends of mean surface air temperature change (degrees Celsius) for 1948-2016 based on Canadian gridded data (CANGRD) are available at a 50km resolution across Canada. Temperature trends represent the departure from a mean reference period (1961-1990). CANGRD data are interpolated from adjusted and homogenized climate station data (i.e., AHCCD datasets). Homogenized climate data incorporate adjustments to the original station data to account for discontinuities from non-climatic factors, such as instrument changes or station relocation.

Contained within the 3rd Edition (1957) of the Atlas of Canada is a plate that shows four maps of the mean daily temperatures for January, April, July and October averaged over the 30 year period, circa 1921-1950. The mean temperature for any day is the average of the maximum and minimum temperatures for that day. The mean daily temperature for any month is the average of the mean temperatures for each day of that month.

The map shows the mean daily maximum temperatures for April. Below-freezing maximum temperatures in April are restricted to northern Canada and the extreme northern portions of Ontario and Quebec adjacent to Hudson Bay. Lengthening days and strengthening sunshine bring about a moderation in temperature in all parts of the country. In the high Arctic, maximum temperatures range from -15 to -30ºC, so winter is very much present despite the arrival of spring weather across southern Canada.

The map shows the mean January daily temperature based on the 30-year period 1941-1970. The lowest mean January daily temperatures are below -35 degrees Celsius and are located on Ellesmere Island and on Axel Heiberg Island and south of the Boothia Peninsula in Nunavut. The highest mean January daily temperatures are above 0 degrees Celsius and are located on the west coast of British Columbia. Generally, the mean increases from north to south, from -35 to -2.5 degrees Celsius. In Canada temperature regimes change drastically from season to season, and even within a season there are often marked changes which affect the whole nature and character of outside activities. The major factors that affect temperature are latitude and thus the length of daylight; elevation; distribution of land and water; and prevailing winds and storm tracks. Although the least direct and the least intense incoming solar radiation occurs in December, there is a lag in the cooling of the Earth’s surface. As a result, the coldest month in Canada is normally January. All temperature reporting stations in Canada are equipped with self-registering maximum and minimum thermometers, which are mounted in standard louvred instrument shelters. Ideally, the shelters are located a little more than a metre above the ground in open spaces that are considered to be representative of the area. The thermometers are read once or several times each day to obtain daily maximum and minimum temperature values. Daily values of maximum and minimum temperature are collected every month from approximately 2000 stations across Canada. From these data, various statistics, such as monthly means, are calculated. The mean daily maximum temperature for any month is the mean of all daily maximum temperatures recorded in that particular month for the period of record. The mean daily minimum temperature is calculated similarly. The mean daily temperature for the month is the average of the mean daily maximum and mean daily minimum values. For obvious socio-economic reasons, the climatological stations used in the analysis are not uniformly located across Canada. The majority are situated in populated areas along the southern fringe of the country. In the mountainous regions of western Canada, most of the stations are located in accessible valleys, and the pattern of the maps is generally indicative of valley conditions only. No attempt was made to allow for detailed topographic effects, as such a pattern would be too complicated to display on the scale used.

Monthly 30-year Average Mean Temperature represents the average monthly mean temperature calculated at a given location averaged across a 30 year period (1961-1991, 1971-2000, 1981-2010, 1991-2020). These values are calculated across Canada in 10x10 km cells.