Cap rates in the U.S. multifamily real estate sector have increased significantly since 2021, reflecting a rise in borrowing costs. In 2023, the average multifamily cap rate was 5.96 percent, up 3.82 percent in 2021, when it was at its low. By 2026, the average multifamily cap rate is forecast to decline slightly, to 5.31 percent.

Retail properties had the highest capitalization rates in the United States in 2023, followed by offices. The cap rate for office real estate was 6.54 percent in the fourth quarter of the year and was forecast to rise further to 7.39 percent in 2024. Cap rates measure the expected rate of return on investment, and show the net operating income of a property as a percentage share of the current asset value. While a higher cap rate indicates a higher rate of return, it also suggests a higher risk. Why have cap rates increased? The increase in cap rates is a consequence of a repricing in the commercial real estate sector. According to the National NCREIF Property Return Index, prices for commercial real estate declined across all property types in 2023. Rental growth was slow during the same period, resulting in a negative annual return. The increase in cap rates reflects the increased risk in the investment environment. Pricing uncertainty in the commercial real estate sector Between 2014 and 2021, commercial property prices in the U.S. enjoyed steady growth. Access to credit with low interest rates facilitated economic growth and real estate investment. As inflation surged in the following two years, lending policy tightened. That had a significant effect on the sector. First, it worsened sentiment among occupiers. Second, it led to a decline in demand for commercial spaces and commercial real estate investment volumes. Uncertainty about the future development of interest rates and occupier demand further contributed to the repricing of real estate assets.

Multifamily buildings had some of the lowest cap rates in Canada in the first quarter of 2023. For class A multifamily high rise buildings, investors could expect a capitalization rate of 4.04 percent, while for class AA downtown offices, the cap rate was 5.92 percent. The capitalization rate measures the rate of return on commercial properties and is calculated by dividing the net operating income of a property by its asset value. While a higher rate might promise higher return, it is also an indication of a riskier asset.

In 2023, the return of the national NCREIF Property Index in the United States declined for the first time since 2009. The annualized total return of the index plummeted in 2023, followed by a slight increase in 2024. Just three years ago, in 2021, the rate of return of the index hit 17.7 percent. The NCREIF Property Index reflects the change in prices of commercial real estate for investment purposes in the United States. Property types with the highest cap rates Cap rates, which measure the expected return rate of a real estate asset, were the highest for retail properties in 2023. While a higher cap rate indicates a higher rate of return, it is also associated with higher risk: The multifamily sector, which has enjoyed steady and robust growth in recent years, had the lowest cap rate of all commercial property types. Commercial property area with the best development prospects In 2025, the real estate development opportunities for single-family housing were deemed to be the best when compared with other types of commercial property. Industrial real estate includes warehouses, factories, and big box distribution centers.

As of June 2020, listed office real estate companies had a market capitalization of 66.6 billion euros, while multifamily housing companies' market cap stood at 53.9 billion euros. The third leading sector was retail with a market cap of approximately 20.5 billion euros. Market capitalization measures the equity value of a company and shows how much a public company is worth.

Which real estate asset classes have the best prospects in 2021? The forecast average annual return on investment in the real estate sector varies between different asset classes. Residential real estate in the UK is expected to have the highest average returns, more than three times higher than retail. According to industry experts, data centers and logistic facilities will have some of the best investment and development prospects in Europe in 2021.

Which are the European cities with the best investment and development prospects in Europe? There are many factors that play a role in an investment decision: a city’s economic performance, transport connectivity, forecast real estate returns, availability opportunities for new development, market size and liquidity, governance, digital connectivity, attractiveness to talent, and affordability. In 2021, Berlin, London, and Paris were named the cities with best investment and development prospects in Europe.

Prime yields increased for all property types in the commercial real estate sector in Germany between 2021 and 2023. Multifamily housing had the lowest yield as of the third quarter of 2023, at 3.6 percent. Conversely, and the highest for shopping centers, amounting to 5.5 percent.