In 2024, the average summer temperature in the United Kingdom was 14.37 degrees Celsius. Over the time period from 1990 through 2024, the average summer temperature in the UK fluctuated from a low of 13.39 degrees in 1993 to a high of 15.76 degrees in 2018.

The highest average temperature recorded in 2024 until November was in August, at 16.8 degrees Celsius. Since 2015, the highest average daily temperature in the UK was registered in July 2018, at 18.7 degrees Celsius. The summer of 2018 was the joint hottest since institutions began recording temperatures in 1910. One noticeable anomaly during this period was in December 2015, when the average daily temperature reached 9.5 degrees Celsius. This month also experienced the highest monthly rainfall in the UK since before 2014, with England, Wales, and Scotland suffering widespread flooding. Daily hours of sunshine Unsurprisingly, the heat wave that spread across the British Isles in 2018 was the result of particularly sunny weather. July 2018 saw an average of 8.7 daily sun hours in the United Kingdom. This was more hours of sun than was recorded in July 2024, which only saw 5.8 hours of sun. Temperatures are on the rise Since the 1960s, there has been an increase in regional temperatures across the UK. Between 1961 and 1990, temperatures in England averaged nine degrees Celsius, and from 2013 to 2022, average temperatures in the country had increased to 10.3 degrees Celsius. Due to its relatively southern location, England continues to rank as the warmest country in the UK.

[Updated 28/01/25 to fix an issue in the ‘Lower’ values, which were not fully representing the range of uncertainty. ‘Median’ and ‘Higher’ values remain unchanged. The size of the change varies by grid cell and fixed period/global warming levels but the average difference between the 'lower' values before and after this update is 0.09°C.]What does the data show? This dataset shows the change in summer average temperature for a range of global warming levels, including the recent past (2001-2020), compared to the 1981-2000 baseline period. Here, summer is defined as June-July-August. Note, as the values in this dataset are averaged over a season they do not represent possible extreme conditions.The dataset uses projections of daily average air temperature from UKCP18 which are averaged over the summer period to give values for the 1981-2000 baseline, the recent past (2001-2020) and global warming levels. The warming levels available are 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C and 4.0°C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The recent past value and global warming level values are stated as a change (in °C) relative to the 1981-2000 value. This enables users to compare summer average temperature trends for the different periods. In addition to the change values, values for the 1981-2000 baseline (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and recent past (2001-2020, corresponding to 0.87°C warming) are also provided. This is summarised in the table below.PeriodDescription1981-2000 baselineAverage temperature (°C) for the period2001-2020 (recent past)Average temperature (°C) for the period2001-2020 (recent past) changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20001.5°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20002°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20002.5°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20003°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20004°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-2000What is a global warming level?The Summer Average Temperature Change is calculated from the UKCP18 regional climate projections using the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow. Instead of considering future climate change during specific time periods (e.g. decades) for this scenario, the dataset is calculated at various levels of global warming relative to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The world has already warmed by around 1.1°C (between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020), whilst this dataset allows for the exploration of greater levels of warming. The global warming levels available in this dataset are 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C and 4°C. The data at each warming level was calculated using a 21 year period. These 21 year periods are calculated by taking 10 years either side of the first year at which the global warming level is reached. This time will be different for different model ensemble members. To calculate the value for the Summer Average Temperature Change, an average is taken across the 21 year period.We cannot provide a precise likelihood for particular emission scenarios being followed in the real world future. However, we do note that RCP8.5 corresponds to emissions considerably above those expected with current international policy agreements. The results are also expressed for several global warming levels because we do not yet know which level will be reached in the real climate as it will depend on future greenhouse emission choices and the sensitivity of the climate system, which is uncertain. Estimates based on the assumption of current international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions suggest a median warming level in the region of 2.4-2.8°C, but it could either be higher or lower than this level.What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?These data contain a field for each warming level and the 1981-2000 baseline. They are named 'tas summer change' (change in air 'temperature at surface'), the warming level or baseline, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. e.g. 'tas summer change 2.0 median' is the median value for summer for the 2.0°C warming level. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not in field names, e.g. 'tas summer change 2.0 median' is named 'tas_summer_change_20_median'. To understand how to explore the data, refer to the New Users ESRI Storymap. Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘tas summer change 2.0°C median’ values.What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future.For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, the Summer Average Temperature Change was calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location.The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘higher’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and higher fields, the greater the uncertainty.‘Lower’, ‘median’ and ‘upper’ are also given for the baseline period as these values also come from the model that was used to produce the projections. This allows a fair comparison between the model projections and recent past. Useful linksFor further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP).Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal.

The annual mean temperature in the United Kingdom has fluctuated greatly since 1990. Temperatures during this period were at their highest in 2022, surpassing 10 degrees Celsius. In 2010, the mean annual temperature stood at 7.94 degrees, the lowest recorded during this time. Daily temperatures Average daily temperatures have remained stable since the turn of the century, rarely dropping below 10 degrees Celsius. In 2010, they dropped to a low of nine degrees Celsius. The peak average daily temperature was recorded in 2022 when it reached 11.2 degrees. This was an increase of one degree Celsius compared to the long-term mean, and the most positive deviation during the period of consideration. Highs and lows The maximum average temperature recorded across the UK since 2015 was in July 2018. This month saw a maximum temperature of 22.6 degrees Celsius. In comparison, the lowest monthly minimum temperature was in February of the same year, at just minus 0.6 degrees. This was an especially cold February, as the previous year the minimum temperature for this month was 2.6 degrees.

Temperature in the United Kingdom increased to 10.14 celsius in 2023 from 10.13 celsius in 2022. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United Kingdom Average Temperature.

England's highest monthly mean air temperatures are typically recorded in July and August of each year. Since 2015, the warmest mean temperature was measured in July 2018 at 18.8 degrees Celsius. On the other hand, February of that same year registered the coolest temperature, at 2.6 degrees Celsius. In April 2025, the mean air temperature was 10.3 degrees Celsius, slightly higher than the same month the previous year. The English weather England is the warmest region in the United Kingdom and the driest. In 2024, the average annual temperature in England amounted to 10.73 degrees Celsius – around 1.1 degrees above the national mean. That same year, precipitation in England stood at about 1,020 millimeters. By contrast, Scotland – the wettest region in the UK – recorded over 1,500 millimeters of rainfall in 2024. Temperatures on the rise Throughout the last decades, the average temperature in the United Kingdom has seen an upward trend, reaching a record high in 2022. Global temperatures have experienced a similar pattern over the same period. This gradual increase in the Earth's average temperature is primarily due to various human activities, such as burning fossil fuels and deforestation, which lead to the emission of greenhouse gases. This phenomenon has severe consequences, including more frequent and intense weather events, rising sea levels, and adverse effects on human health and the environment.

This data-set contains 3 fields for each fixed period (1981-2000, 2001-2020) and Global Warming Level (1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C) combination: the median, 2nd lowest and 2nd highest among the 12 ensemble members. The fields are named accordingly; e.g. the 2nd lowest at 2.5°C is tas_summer_25_lowerTo understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.

The daily average temperature in the United Kingdom (UK) has remained relatively stable since 2001, with temperatures rarely straying below 10 degrees Celsius. In 2024, the UK had an average daily temperature of 11.9 degrees Celsius. This was the highest average daily temperature recorded since the turn of the century. British summertime Britain is not known for its blisteringly hot summer months, with the average temperatures in this season varying greatly since 1990. In 1993, the average summer temperature was as low as 13.39 degrees Celsius, whilst 2018 saw a peak of 15.8 degrees Celsius. In that same year, the highest mean temperature occurred in July at 17.2 degrees Celsius. Variable weather Due to its location and the fact that it is an island, the United Kingdom experiences a diverse range of weather, sometimes in the same day. It is in an area where five air masses meet, creating a weather front. Each brings different weather conditions, such as hot, dry air from North Africa and wet and cold air from the Arctic. Temperatures across the UK tend to be warmest in England.

The average temperature across the United Kingdom presented a trend of continuous growth since 1961. During the first period, from 1961 to 1990, the country recorded an average temperature of 8.3 degrees Celsius. In the next period, from 1991 to 2020, the UK's average temperature increased by 0.8 degrees Celsius and increased further by 0.5 degrees Celsius between 2014 and 2023. In the latter year, figures remained at 10 degrees Celsius, 1.7 degrees warmer than the average recorded between 1961 and 1990, illustrating the effects of climate change. Nevertheless, 2022 was the warmest year in the United Kingdom.

For an urban heat island map during an average summer see this dataset. A heatwave refers to a prolonged period of unusually hot weather. While there is no standard definition of a heatwave in England, the Met Office uses the World Meteorological Organization definition of a heatwave, which is "when the daily maximum temperature of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5°C, the normal period being 1961-1990". They are common in the northern and southern hemisphere during summer have historically been associated with health problems and an increase in mortality. The urban heat island (UHI) is the phenomenon where temperatures are relatively higher in cities compared to surrounding rural areas due to, for example, the urban surfaces and anthropogenic heat sources. This urban heat island map was produced using LondUM, a specific set-up of the Met Office Unified Model version 6.1 for London. It uses the Met Office Reading Surface Exchange Scheme (MORUSES), as well as urban morphology data derived from Virtual London. The model was run from May until September 2006 and December 2006. This map shows average surface temperatures over the summer period of 2006 at a 1km by 1km resolution. To find out more about LondUM, see the University of Reading’s website. The hourly outputs from LondUM have been aggregated and mapped by Jonathon Taylor, UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering. Variables include: WSAVGMAX= the average of the maximum daily temperatures across the summer period (May 26th-August 31st) WSAVG=the average temperature across the summer period WSAVGMIN = the average minimum daily temperature across the summer period HWAVGMAX= the average of the maximum daily temperatures across the 2006 heatwave (July 16th-19th) HWAVG=the average temperature across the across the 2006 heatwave HWAVGMIN = the average minimum daily temperature across 2006 heatwave period The maps are also available as one combined PDF. The gif below maps the temperatures across London during the four-day period of 16-19th July, which was considered a heatwave. If you make use of the LondUM data, please use the following citation to acknowledge the data and reference the publication below for model description: LondUM (2011). Model data generated by Sylvia I. Bohnenstengel (), Department of Meteorology, University of Reading and data retrieved from http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~sws07sib/home/LondUM.html. () Now at Metoffice@Reading, Email: sylvia.bohnenstengel@metoffice.gov.uk Bohnenstengel SI, Evans S, Clark P and Belcher SeE (2011) Simulations of the London Urban Heat island. Quarterly journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 137(659). pp. 1625-1640. ISSN 1477-870X doi 10.1002/qj.855. LondUM data (2013).

[Updated 28/01/25 to fix an issue in the ‘Lower’ values, which were not fully representing the range of uncertainty. ‘Median’ and ‘Higher’ values remain unchanged. The size of the change varies by grid cell and fixed period/global warming levels but the average difference between the 'lower' values before and after this update is 0.21°C.]What does the data show? This dataset shows the change in winter average temperature for a range of global warming levels, including the recent past (2001-2020), compared to the 1981-2000 baseline period. Here, winter is defined as December-January-February. Note, as the values in this dataset are averaged over a season they do not represent possible extreme conditions.The dataset uses projections of daily average air temperature from UKCP18 which are averaged over the winter period to give values for the 1981-2000 baseline, the recent past (2001-2020) and global warming levels. The warming levels available are 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C and 4.0°C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The recent past value and global warming level values are stated as a change (in °C) relative to the 1981-2000 value. This enables users to compare winter average temperature trends for the different periods. In addition to the change values, values for the 1981-2000 baseline (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and recent past (2001-2020, corresponding to 0.87°C warming) are also provided. This is summarised in the table below.PeriodDescription1981-2000 baselineAverage temperature (°C) for the period2001-2020 (recent past)Average temperature (°C) for the period2001-2020 (recent past) changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20001.5°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20002°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20002.5°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20003°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20004°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-2000What is a global warming level?The Winter Average Temperature Change is calculated from the UKCP18 regional climate projections using the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow. Instead of considering future climate change during specific time periods (e.g. decades) for this scenario, the dataset is calculated at various levels of global warming relative to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The world has already warmed by around 1.1°C (between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020), whilst this dataset allows for the exploration of greater levels of warming.The global warming levels available in this dataset are 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C and 4°C. The data at each warming level was calculated using a 21 year period. These 21 year periods are calculated by taking 10 years either side of the first year at which the global warming level is reached. This time will be different for different model ensemble members. To calculate the value for the Winter Average Temperature Change, an average is taken across the 21 year period.We cannot provide a precise likelihood for particular emission scenarios being followed in the real world future. However, we do note that RCP8.5 corresponds to emissions considerably above those expected with current international policy agreements. The results are also expressed for several global warming levels because we do not yet know which level will be reached in the real climate as it will depend on future greenhouse emission choices and the sensitivity of the climate system, which is uncertain. Estimates based on the assumption of current international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions suggest a median warming level in the region of 2.4-2.8°C, but it could either be higher or lower than this level.What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?These data contain a field for each warming level and the 1981-2000 baseline. They are named 'tas winter change' (change in air 'temperature at surface'), the warming level or baseline, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. e.g. 'tas winter change 2.0 median' is the median value for winter for the 2.0°C warming level. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not in field names, e.g. 'tas change winter 2.0 median' is named 'tas_winter_change_20_median'. To understand how to explore the data, refer to the New Users ESRI Storymap. Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘tas winter change 2.0°C median’ values.What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future.For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, the Winter Average Temperature Change was calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location.The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘higher’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and higher fields, the greater the uncertainty.‘Lower’, ‘median’ and ‘upper’ are also given for the baseline period as these values also come from the model that was used to produce the projections. This allows a fair comparison between the model projections and recent past. Useful linksFor further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP).Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal.

Average Rainfall (mm) and average Temperature (centigrade) for the North East England and East England Met Office Climate district, which includes Lincolnshire. This dataset shows the average Rainfall in millimetres and average Temperature in centigrade, by month, meteorological season, and annual calendar year. The data is sourced from the UK Met Office website. See the Source link for more information about the data and the area it covers.

[Updated 28/01/25 to fix an issue in the ‘Lower’ values, which were not fully representing the range of uncertainty. ‘Median’ and ‘Higher’ values remain unchanged. The size of the change varies by grid cell and fixed period/global warming levels but the average difference between the 'lower' values before and after this update is 0.0.]What does the data show? The Annual Count of Extreme Summer Days is the number of days per year where the maximum daily temperature is above 35°C. It measures how many times the threshold is exceeded (not by how much) in a year. Note, the term ‘extreme summer days’ is used to refer to the threshold and temperatures above 35°C outside the summer months also contribute to the annual count. The results should be interpreted as an approximation of the projected number of days when the threshold is exceeded as there will be many factors such as natural variability and local scale processes that the climate model is unable to represent.The Annual Count of Extreme Summer Days is calculated for two baseline (historical) periods 1981-2000 (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and 2001-2020 (corresponding to 0.87°C warming) and for global warming levels of 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C, 4.0°C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. This enables users to compare the future number of extreme summer days to previous values.What are the possible societal impacts?The Annual Count of Extreme Summer Days indicates increased health risks, transport disruption and damage to infrastructure from high temperatures. It is based on exceeding a maximum daily temperature of 35°C. Impacts include:Increased heat related illnesses, hospital admissions or death affecting not just the vulnerable. Transport disruption due to overheating of road and railway infrastructure.Other metrics such as the Annual Count of Summer Days (days above 25°C), Annual Count of Hot Summer Days (days above 30°C) and the Annual Count of Tropical Nights (where the minimum temperature does not fall below 20°C) also indicate impacts from high temperatures, however they use different temperature thresholds.What is a global warming level?The Annual Count of Extreme Summer Days is calculated from the UKCP18 regional climate projections using the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow. Instead of considering future climate change during specific time periods (e.g. decades) for this scenario, the dataset is calculated at various levels of global warming relative to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The world has already warmed by around 1.1°C (between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020), whilst this dataset allows for the exploration of greater levels of warming. The global warming levels available in this dataset are 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C and 4°C. The data at each warming level was calculated using a 21 year period. These 21 year periods are calculated by taking 10 years either side of the first year at which the global warming level is reached. This time will be different for different model ensemble members. To calculate the value for the Annual Count of Extreme Summer Days, an average is taken across the 21 year period. Therefore, the Annual Count of Extreme Summer Days show the number of extreme summer days that could occur each year, for each given level of warming. We cannot provide a precise likelihood for particular emission scenarios being followed in the real world future. However, we do note that RCP8.5 corresponds to emissions considerably above those expected with current international policy agreements. The results are also expressed for several global warming levels because we do not yet know which level will be reached in the real climate as it will depend on future greenhouse emission choices and the sensitivity of the climate system, which is uncertain. Estimates based on the assumption of current international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions suggest a median warming level in the region of 2.4-2.8°C, but it could either be higher or lower than this level.What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?This data contains a field for each global warming level and two baselines. They are named ‘ESD’ (where ESD means Extreme Summer Days, the warming level or baseline, and ‘upper’ ‘median’ or ‘lower’ as per the description below. E.g. ‘Extreme Summer Days 2.5 median’ is the median value for the 2.5°C warming level. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not field names e.g. ‘Extreme Summer Days 2.5 median’ is ‘ExtremeSummerDays_25_median’. To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘ESD 2.0°C median’ values.What do the ‘median’, ‘upper’, and ‘lower’ values mean?Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future. For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, the Annual Count of Extreme Summer Days was calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location. The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘upper’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and upper fields, the greater the uncertainty.‘Lower’, ‘median’ and ‘upper’ are also given for the baseline periods as these values also come from the model that was used to produce the projections. This allows a fair comparison between the model projections and recent past. Useful linksThis dataset was calculated following the methodology in the ‘Future Changes to high impact weather in the UK’ report and uses the same temperature thresholds as the 'State of the UK Climate' report.Further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP).Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal.

This dataset shows the averaged current average temperature presented to sites across the UK from temperatures degrees per day, based on data collected from a 1981-2010 baseline period. The dataset shows the likelihood of a temperature hazard event distributed across 5km hexagonal grids.

About London London is the capital city of England and the United Kingdom, located in the southeast part of the country. It is a global city and a major center for finance, commerce, culture, and tourism. With a population of over 8 million people, it is the most populous city in the UK and one of the largest cities in Europe. London is famous for its iconic landmarks such as Big Ben, the Tower Bridge, Buckingham Palace, and the London Eye, as well as its world-renowned museums, art galleries, theaters, and restaurants. The city is also known for its diverse population and multicultural atmosphere, with over 300 languages spoken within its borders.

About Dataset This dataset contains daily weather observations for London, UK from January 1, 2000 to January 1, 2023. The data is collected from Meteostat. The dataset contains 10 columns with 8402 rows.

What does the data show?

This data shows the monthly averages of surface temperature (°C) for 2070-2099 using a combination of the CRU TS (v. 4.06) and UKCP18 global RCP2.6 datasets. The RCP2.6 scenario is an aggressive mitigation scenario where greenhouse gas emissions are strongly reduced.

The data combines a baseline (1981-2010) value from CRU TS (v. 4.06) with an anomaly from UKCP18 global. Where the anomaly is the change in temperature at 2070-2099 relative to 1981-2010.

The data is provided on the WGS84 grid which measures approximately 60km x 60km (latitude x longitude) at the equator.

Limitations of the data

We recommend the use of multiple grid cells or an average of grid cells around a point of interest to help users get a sense of the variability in the area. This will provide a more robust set of values for informing decisions based on the data.

What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?

This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'tas' (temperature at surface), the month and ‘upper’ ‘median’ or ‘lower’. E.g. ‘tas Mar Lower’ is the average of the daily average temperatures in March throughout 2070-2099, in the second lowest ensemble member.

To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578

Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘tas Jan Median’ values.

What do the ‘median’, ‘upper’, and ‘lower’ values mean?

Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future.

To select which ensemble members to use, the monthly averages of surface temperature for the period 2070-2099 were calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location.

The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘upper’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble.

This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and upper fields, the greater the uncertainty.

Data source

CRU TS v. 4.06 - (downloaded 12/07/22)

UKCP18 v.20200110 (downloaded 17/08/22)

Useful links

Further information on CRU TS Further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP) Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal

This dataset shows the future average temperature presented to sites across the UK from temperatures per day, based on data for a 2060-2080 projection period. The dataset shows the likelihood of a temperature hazard event distributed across 5km hexagonal grids.

HadUK-Grid is a collection of gridded climate variables derived from the network of UK land surface observations. The data have been interpolated from meteorological station data onto a uniform grid to provide complete and consistent coverage across the UK. These data at 1 km resolution have been averaged across a set of discrete geographies defining UK administrative regions consistent with data from UKCP18 climate projections. The dataset spans the period from 1836 to 2023 but the start time is dependent on climate variable and temporal resolution.

The gridded data are produced for daily, monthly, seasonal and annual timescales, as well as long term averages for a set of climatological reference periods. Variables include air temperature (maximum, minimum and mean), precipitation, sunshine, mean sea level pressure, wind speed, relative humidity, vapour pressure, days of snow lying, and days of ground frost.

This data set supersedes the previous versions of this dataset which also superseded UKCP09 gridded observations. Subsequent versions may be released in due course and will follow the version numbering as outlined by Hollis et al. (2019, see linked documentation).

The changes for v1.3.0.ceda HadUK-Grid datasets are as follows:

• Added data for calendar year 2023

• Added newly digitised data for daily rainfall (62 Scottish stations for 1945-1960)

• Daily rainfall data for Bolton, 1916-1919 have been corrected (previous values were corrupted and needed redigitising)

• Daily rainfall data for Buxton, 1960 have been corrected (conversion from inches to mm had been applied incorrectly)

• Rainfall data from EA and SEPA APIs are included for the last three months of the dataset (Oct-Dec 2023) (for all earlier months the rainfall data from partner agencies is obtained from the Met Office's MIDAS database)

• The number of stations used for groundfrost, sunshine and windspeed have reduced at different points in the historical series when comparing v1.3.0.ceda to the previous version v1.2.0.ceda. These reductions in station numbers have been caused by changes made in the data processing steps upstream of the gridding process.

• For groundfrost this reduction has been caused by an automated quality control process flagging the historical data which have been removed as suspect (mostly affecting data from 1961 to 1970).

• For sunshine the small reduction in the 1960s has been caused by the removal of digitized monthly sunshine data through this period where we wish to reverify the data source.

• For windspeed the reduction from 1969 to 2010 has been caused by changes to rules applied relating to data completeness when compiling daily mean windspeeds, which in turn have followed through to monthly statistics.

• We plan to carry out a review of the data which have been excluded from this version. Some of it may be reintroduced in a future release.

• Net changes to the input station data:

• Total of 126970983 observations

• 125384735 (98.75%) unchanged

• 28487 (0.02%) modified for this version

• 1557761 (1.23%) added in this version

• 188522 (0.15%) deleted from this version

The primary purpose of these data are to facilitate monitoring of UK climate and research into climate change, impacts and adaptation. The datasets have been created by the Met Office with financial support from the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) and Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) in order to support the Public Weather Service Customer Group (PWSCG), the Hadley Centre Climate Programme, and the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) project. The output from a number of data recovery activities relating to 19th and early 20th Century data have been used in the creation of this dataset, these activities were supported by: the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme; the Natural Environment Research Council project "Analysis of historic drought and water scarcity in the UK"; the UK Research & Innovation (UKRI) Strategic Priorities Fund UK Climate Resilience programme; The UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Public Engagement programme; the National Centre for Atmospheric Science; National Centre for Atmospheric Science and the NERC GloSAT project; and the contribution of many thousands of public volunteers. The dataset is provided under Open Government Licence.

The United Kingdom's hottest summer ever recorded was in 2018, with an average temperature of 15.76 degrees Celsius. Meanwhile, 2023 saw the eighth hottest summer in the UK, with an average temperature of 15.35 degrees. In the last couple of decades, five of the top 10 warmest summers in the UK were recorded. New temperature records in 2022 In summer 2022, record-breaking temperatures of more than 40 degrees Celsius were recorded at several locations across the UK. Accordingly, 2022 was also the UK's warmest year on record, with the average annual temperature rising above 10 degrees Celsius for the first time. Since temperature recording began in 1884, the hottest years documented in the country have all occurred after 2003. England: the warmest country in the UK Amongst the countries that comprise the United Kingdom, England has generally seen the highest annual mean temperatures. In 2022, England’s average temperature also reached a new record high, at nearly 11 degrees Celsius. And while it’s not a typical sight in the United Kingdom, England also registered the most hours of sunshine on average, with Scotland being the gloomiest country out of the four.