This Commentary examines the response of longer-run inflation expectations to the FOMC’s August 2020 announced switch to a flexible average inflation-targeting (FAIT) regime. The data indicate an upward shift in the lower end (below 2 percent) of the distribution of inflation expectations and a stronger anchoring of expectations around the 2 percent inflation objective following the announcement, evidence that is consistent with intended effects of the change in the monetary policy framework. To provide context, we also include a retrospective assessment of the response of inflation expectations to the FOMC’s January 2012 announcement of an inflation objective. Lessons from the 2012 announcement suggest that conclusions about the adoption of the FAIT regime should be viewed as tentative. Consequently, we also describe indicators and features of the data to monitor developments going forward.

One significant change in the US economy in the last 20 years is the trend decline in real interest rates that pushes the policy rate near the effective lower bound (ELB) and puts downward pressure on inflation. This environment leaves conventional monetary policy tools less effective in accommodating adverse shocks. To better achieve the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate at the ELB, the FOMC adopted a new framework called average inflation targeting (AIT). In this Commentary , I demonstrate that AIT is a better policy in a low-rate environment because of its ability to anchor inflation expectations, and I present possible implications of the flexible implementation of AIT.

This is the replication package for "Average Inflation Targeting and Household Expectations," accepted in 2022 by the Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics.

Globally, central banks prevented high inflation post-pandemic from becoming embedded in inflation expectations.

This folder provides the replication package for the paper “Shades of inflation targeting: insights from fractional integration”, published in 2025 in Macroeconomic Dynamics. The package includes: (i) the README file with instructions; (ii) the dataset on monthly CPI price level series for 36 inflation-targeting economies; (iii) the R code used to transform data and construct seasonally adjusted inflation rate series; and (iv) the Stata do-file used to specify and estimate ARFIMA models. These models are applied to assess the level of fractional integration of CPI inflation rates in 36 economies between 2000 and 2019, and to classify them into four groups of inflation targeting strategies: average IT, strict IT, flexible IT, and uncommitted IT. The materials reproduce the baseline results reported in the paper and provide a novel classification of IT strategies.

The Federal Reserve has raised the federal funds rate by 500 basis points since March 2022. But how tight is the current policy stance? We account for the federal funds rate, inflation expectations, and the natural rate of interest and find that monetary policy has only been restrictive since 2023:Q1. We find that to bring inflation down to 2 percent, the Federal Reserve may have to keep the federal funds rate in restrictive territory for some time.

Bank of Mexico: Inflation Target data was reported at 3.000 % in 2020. This stayed constant from the previous number of 3.000 % for 2019. Bank of Mexico: Inflation Target data is updated yearly, averaging 3.000 % from Dec 2003 (Median) to 2020, with 18 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.000 % in 2020 and a record low of 3.000 % in 2020. Bank of Mexico: Inflation Target data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bank of Mexico. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Mexico – Table MX.I001: Consumer Price Index: Inflation Target.

Armenia Inflation Target data was reported at 3.000 % in 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 4.000 % for 2024. Armenia Inflation Target data is updated yearly, averaging 4.000 % from Dec 2002 (Median) to 2025, with 24 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.000 % in 2024 and a record low of 3.000 % in 2025. Armenia Inflation Target data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Central Bank of Armenia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Armenia – Table AM.I001: Consumer Price Index: Inflation Target.

ABSTRACT In 1999 the inflation targeting regime was introduced in Brazil in an environment plenty of uncertainties and relatively high inflation rates. As a consequence, the set of rules that to this day govern the Brazilian regime still lack a strong institutional support. This paper makes some proposals for a permanent inflation targeting regime. In doing so, we discuss how can a greater institutional commitment be achieved with the inflation targeting setup. We also discuss issues on what the permanent inflation target level should be and also how much deviation from the target should be tolerated. Based on these issues, we suggest a set of rules to be adopted in Brazil.

This dataset is about books. It has 1 row and is filtered where the book is Macroeconomic stabilization : fixed exchange rates vs inflation targeting vs price level targeting. It features 7 columns including author, publication date, language, and book publisher.

Data was cleaned and prepared for a data visualization comparing the Federal Funds Rate to the 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate. The purpose of this project was to visualize a perspective of the Federal Reserve. With the Federal Reserve raising rates to control inflation, many are debating when will the Federal Reserve pause raising rates or cut rates. The 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate is still well above the Federal Reserve's FAIT (Flexible Average Inflation Targeting) of 2% for that reason the Federal Reserve still has room to play with the Funds Rate.

This paper exploits the term structure of interest rates to develop testable economic restrictions on the joint process of long-term interest rates and inflation when the latter is subject to a targeting policy by the central bank. In an empirical application to the Canadian inflation target zone, results indicate that financial markets perceive the band to be of approximately the same width as announced but asymmetrically distributed around the official target. This finding suggests that, in practice, the monetary authority might attach different weights to positive and negative inflation deviations from the target.

The inflation rate in the United States declined significantly between June 2022 and September 2025, despite rising inflationary pressures towards the end of 2024. The peak inflation rate was recorded in June 2022, at *** percent. In August 2023, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hit its highest level during the observed period, at **** percent, and remained unchanged until September 2024, when the Federal Reserve implemented its first rate cut since September 2021. By September 2025, the rate dropped to **** percent, signaling a shift in monetary policy. What is the Federal Reserve interest rate? The Federal Reserve interest rate, or the federal funds rate, is the rate at which banks and credit unions lend to and borrow from each other. It is one of the Federal Reserve's key tools for maintaining strong employment rates, stable prices, and reasonable interest rates. The rate is determined by the Federal Reserve and adjusted eight times a year, though it can be changed through emergency meetings during times of crisis. The Fed doesn't directly control the interest rate but sets a target rate. It then uses open market operations to influence rates toward this target. Ways of measuring inflation Inflation is typically measured using several methods, with the most common being the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI tracks the price of a fixed basket of goods and services over time, providing a measure of the price changes consumers face. At the end of 2023, the CPI in the United States was ****** percent, up from ****** a year earlier. A more business-focused measure is the producer price index (PPI), which represents the costs of firms.

The Median CPI is well-known as an accurate predictor of future inflation. But it’s just one of many possible trimmed-mean inflation measures. Recent research compares these types of measures to see which tracks future inflation best. Not only does the Median CPI outperform other trims in predicting CPI inflation, it also does a better job of predicting PCE inflation, the FOMC’s preferred measure, than the core PCE.

Central Bank of Argentina: Inflation Target data was reported at 5.000 % in 2020. This records a decrease from the previous number of 10.000 % for 2019. Central Bank of Argentina: Inflation Target data is updated yearly, averaging 10.000 % from Dec 2018 (Median) to 2020, with 3 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 15.000 % in 2018 and a record low of 5.000 % in 2020. Central Bank of Argentina: Inflation Target data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Central Bank of Argentina. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Argentina – Table AR.I001: Consumer Price Index: Inflation Target.

This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is recognized as a successful forecast targeting central bank. It is reasonable to expect that Norges Bank produces inflation forecasts that are on average better than other forecasts, both ‘naïve’ forecasts, and forecasts from econometric models outside the central bank. The authors find that the superiority of the Bank’s forecast cannot be asserted, when compared with genuine ex-ante real time forecasts from an independent econometric model. The 1-step Monetary Policy Report forecasts are preferable to the 1-step forecasts from the outside model, but for the policy relevant horizons (4 to 9 quarters ahead), the forecasts from the outsider model are preferred with a wider margin. An explanation in terms of too high speed of adjustment to the inflation target is supported by the evidence. Norges Bank’s forecasts are convincingly better than ‘naïve’ forecasts over the second half of our sample, but not over the whole sample, which includes a change in the mean of inflation.

This dataset tracks the policy interest rates of the world’s top 8 central banks from 1980 to 2025, offering a unique longitudinal view into global monetary trends. Central banks included are: the Federal Reserve (USA), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE), Bank of Japan (BoJ), Bank of Canada (BoC), Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Swiss National Bank (SNB), and Sveriges Riksbank (Sweden). Note: The ECB's data begins in 1999, aligning with its establishment.

Ideal for time-series analysis, forecasting, and macroeconomic research, this dataset can be used to study inflation targeting regimes, financial crises, and policy divergence/convergence across developed economies.

The enduring discourse regarding the effectiveness of interest rate policy in mitigating inflation within developing economies is characterized by the interplay of structural and supply-side determinants. Moreover, extant academic literature fails to resolve the direction of causality between inflation and interest rates. Nevertheless, the prevalent adoption of interest rate-based monetary policies in numerous developing economies raises a fundamental inquiry: What motivates central banks in these nations to consistently espouse this strategy? To address this inquiry, our study leverages wavelet transformation to dissect interest rate and inflation data across a spectrum of frequency scales. This innovative methodology paves the way for a meticulous exploration of the intricate causal interplay between these pivotal macroeconomic variables for twenty-two developing economies using monthly data from 1992 to 2022. Traditional literature on causality tends to focus on short- and long-run timescales, yet our study posits that numerous uncharted time and frequency scales exist between these extremes. These intermediate scales may wield substantial influence over the causal relationship and its direction. Our research thus extends the boundaries of existing causality literature and presents fresh insights into the complexities of monetary policy in developing economies. Traditional wisdom suggests that central banks should raise interest rates to combat inflation. However, our study uncovers a contrasting reality in developing economies. It demonstrates a positive causal link between the policy rate and inflation, where an increase in the central bank’s interest rates leads to an upsurge in price levels. Paradoxically, in response to escalating prices, the central bank continues to heighten the policy rate, thereby perpetuating this cyclical pattern. Given this observed positive causal relationship in developing economies, central banks must explore structural and supply-side factors to break this cycle and regain control over inflation.

Bank of Canada: Inflation Target data was reported at 2.000 % in 2026. This stayed constant from the previous number of 2.000 % for 2025. Bank of Canada: Inflation Target data is updated yearly, averaging 2.000 % from Dec 1992 (Median) to 2026, with 35 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.000 % in 1993 and a record low of 2.000 % in 2026. Bank of Canada: Inflation Target data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bank of Canada. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Canada – Table CA.I: Inflation Target.

Inflation and its perception by the public are often very different. 🏷 While the Central Bank tracks inflation across a wide range of goods, people typically don't buy all of them every day. 💡 This creates a disconnect between the official inflation data and public perception. But is there a correlation between the two? 🤔

This dataset explores the relationship between inflation as reported by the Central Bank of Russia and inflation expectations as captured in surveys conducted by ВЦИОМ (All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center). 📈 By analyzing both sources of data, we can understand how Russians feel about inflation and how their perception compares with the official statistics.

🗓 Dataset Overview:

• Survey Data: 💬 Data collected from surveys asking Russian citizens about their perception of inflation. The survey categorizes inflation into three levels: "Very High," "Moderate," and "Low."

• Central Bank Data: 🏦 Official data published by the Central Bank of Russia, including year-on-year inflation rates and key interest rates.

Inflation Perception Index: 🔢 The perception index is calculated using a weighted average of survey responses:

Index = ( Very High Inflation × 0.9 + Moderate Inflation × 0.5 + Low Inflation × 0.1) / Count without "I don’t know"

📅 Data Collection:

• Survey Data Source: 📊 ВЦИОМ (All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center) conducts regular surveys on inflation perceptions among Russian citizens. The survey data captures public sentiment on inflation in the last month or two.

• Inflation Data Source: 🏛 Central Bank of Russia provides official inflation statistics (year-on-year) and the key interest rate, which are critical for evaluating economic stability. The inflation target is also included in the dataset.

🧮 Key Columns:

• Date 📅: The date corresponding to each data entry.

• Key Rate, % per year 💰: The official interest rate set by the Central Bank of Russia.

• Inflation, % year-on-year 📉: The year-on-year inflation rate reported by the Central Bank.

• Inflation Target 🎯: The official target for inflation set by the Central Bank.

• Survey Responses 🗣: Data from survey questions about inflation perceptions:

  • Very High Inflation (Survey) 🚨

  • Moderate Inflation (Survey) 📊

  • Low Inflation (Survey) 🌱

  • I do not know (Survey) 🤷‍♂️

• Perception Index 🔢: The calculated index reflecting the general perception of inflation among Russians.

📈 Potential Use Cases:

• Economic Research 📚: Analyze the correlation between official inflation rates and public sentiment regarding inflation.

• Policy Evaluation 📊: Assess the effectiveness of the Central Bank's monetary policies in influencing public perceptions of inflation.

• Forecasting 🔮: Build predictive models for inflation expectations based on public sentiment and official statistics.

• Public Sentiment Analysis 💬: Explore how perceptions of inflation impact consumer behavior and business strategies.

📚 Acknowledgments:

Data Sources: 🏦 Central Bank of Russia (CBR) | 📊 ВЦИОМ (Survey Data)