Over the past 160 years, life expectancy (from birth) in the United States has risen from 39.4 years in 1860, to 78.9 years in 2020. One of the major reasons for the overall increase of life expectancy in the last two centuries is the fact that the infant and child mortality rates have decreased by so much during this time. Medical advancements, fewer wars and improved living standards also mean that people are living longer than they did in previous centuries.

Despite this overall increase, the life expectancy dropped three times since 1860; from 1865 to 1870 during the American Civil War, from 1915 to 1920 during the First World War and following Spanish Flu epidemic, and it has dropped again between 2015 and now. The reason for the most recent drop in life expectancy is not a result of any specific event, but has been attributed to negative societal trends, such as unbalanced diets and sedentary lifestyles, high medical costs, and increasing rates of suicide and drug use.

A global phenomenon, known as the demographic transition, has seen life expectancy from birth increase rapidly over the past two centuries. In pre-industrial societies, the average life expectancy was around 24 years, and it is believed that this was the case throughout most of history, and in all regions. The demographic transition then began in the industrial societies of Europe, North America, and the West Pacific around the turn of the 19th century, and life expectancy rose accordingly. Latin America was the next region to follow, before Africa and most Asian populations saw their life expectancy rise throughout the 20th century.

Throughout most of history, average life expectancy from birth was fairly consistent across the globe, at around 24 years. A major contributor to this was high rates of infant and child mortality; those who survived into adulthood could expect to live to their 50s or 60s, yet pandemics, food instability, and conflict did cause regular spikes in mortality across the entire population. Gradually, from the 16th to 19th centuries, there was some growth in more developed societies, due to improvements in agriculture, infrastructure, and medical knowledge. However, the most significant change came with the introduction of vaccination and other medical advances in the 1800s, which saw a sharp decline in child mortality and the onset of the demographic transition. This phenomenon began in more developed countries in the 1800s, before spreading to Latin America, Asia, and (later) Africa in the 1900s. As the majority of the world's population lives in countries considered to be "less developed", this figure is much closer to the global average. However, today, there is a considerable difference in life expectancies across these countries, ranging from 84.7 years in Japan to 53 years in the Central African Republic.

This dataset of U.S. mortality trends since 1900 highlights the differences in age-adjusted death rates and life expectancy at birth by race and sex.

Age-adjusted death rates (deaths per 100,000) after 1998 are calculated based on the 2000 U.S. standard population. Populations used for computing death rates for 2011–2017 are postcensal estimates based on the 2010 census, estimated as of July 1, 2010. Rates for census years are based on populations enumerated in the corresponding censuses. Rates for noncensus years between 2000 and 2010 are revised using updated intercensal population estimates and may differ from rates previously published. Data on age-adjusted death rates prior to 1999 are taken from historical data (see References below).

Life expectancy data are available up to 2017. Due to changes in categories of race used in publications, data are not available for the black population consistently before 1968, and not at all before 1960. More information on historical data on age-adjusted death rates is available at https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/mortality/hist293.htm.

SOURCES

CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, historical data, 1900-1998 (see https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/mortality_historical_data.htm); CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, mortality data (see http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/deaths.htm); and CDC WONDER (see http://wonder.cdc.gov).

REFERENCES

1. National Center for Health Statistics, Data Warehouse. Comparability of cause-of-death between ICD revisions. 2008. Available from: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/mortality/comparability_icd.htm.

2. National Center for Health Statistics. Vital statistics data available. Mortality multiple cause files. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data_access/vitalstatsonline.htm.

3. Kochanek KD, Murphy SL, Xu JQ, Arias E. Deaths: Final data for 2017. National Vital Statistics Reports; vol 68 no 9. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2019. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_09-508.pdf.

4. Arias E, Xu JQ. United States life tables, 2017. National Vital Statistics Reports; vol 68 no 7. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2019. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_07-508.pdf.

5. National Center for Health Statistics. Historical Data, 1900-1998. 2009. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/mortality_historical_data.htm.

Global life expactancy at birth has risen significantly since the mid-1900s, from roughly 46 years in 1950 to 73.5 years in 2025. Post-COVID-19 projections There was a drop of 1.7 years during the COVID-19 pandemic, between 2019 and 2021, however figures resumed upon their previous trajectory the following year due to the implementation of vaccination campaigns and the lower severity of later strains of the virus. By the end of the century it is believed that global life expectancy from birth will reach 82 years, although growth will slow in the coming decades as many of the more-populous Asian countries reach demographic maturity. However, there is still expected to be a wide gap between various regions at the end of the 2100s, with the Europe and North America expected to have life expectancies around 90 years, whereas Sub-Saharan Africa is predicted to be in the low-70s. The Great Leap Forward While a decrease of one year during the COVID-19 pandemic may appear insignificant, this is the largest decline in life expectancy since the "Great Leap Forward" in China in 1958, which caused global life expectancy to fall by almost four years between by 1960. The "Great Leap Forward" was a series of modernizing reforms, which sought to rapidly transition China's agrarian economy into an industrial economy, but mismanagement led to tens of millions of deaths through famine and disease.

Chart and table of India life expectancy from 1950 to 2025. United Nations projections are also included through the year 2100.

Life expectancy in India was 25.4 in the year 1800, and over the course of the next 220 years, it has increased to almost 70. Between 1800 and 1920, life expectancy in India remained in the mid to low twenties, with the largest declines coming in the 1870s and 1910s; this was because of the Great Famine of 1876-1878, and the Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918-1919, both of which were responsible for the deaths of up to six and seventeen million Indians respectively; as well as the presence of other endemic diseases in the region, such as smallpox. From 1920 onwards, India's life expectancy has consistently increased, but it is still below the global average.

Chart and table of Romania life expectancy from 1950 to 2025. United Nations projections are also included through the year 2100.

Life expectancy in Germany was below 39 in the year 1875, and over the course of the next 145 years, it is expected to have increased to above 81 years in the year 2020. Although life expectancy has generally increased throughout Germany's history, there were several times where the rate deviated from its previous trajectory. The most notable changes were because of the First and Second World Wars, in the first half of the twentieth century.

Chart and table of Taiwan life expectancy from 1950 to 2025. United Nations projections are also included through the year 2100.

Chart and table of Canada life expectancy from 1950 to 2025. United Nations projections are also included through the year 2100.

Between 1900 and 1950, Egypt’s life expectancy saw little change, hovering around 33 years, with the only decrease coming in the 1910s during the Spanish Flu epidemic and the Second World War. However, following the removal of the monarchy and establishment of the Egyptian republic in the 1952 Revolution, life expectancy saw a several decade rise, largely due to a significant expansion of the economy, health services, and other forms of social welfare; this increase then slowed between 1960 and 1975 as the economic growth in the country slowed, but it then increased to 68 years at the turn of the millennium. Since 2000, this growth has slowed, as a mixture of high population growth, high unemployment, and significant civil unrest have hit the country in the last two decades, although it has still reached 72 years in 2020, which is just one year below the global life expectancy.

Life expectancy in the United Kingdom was below 39 years in the year 1765, and over the course of the next two and a half centuries, it is expected to have increased by more than double, to 81.1 by the year 2020. Although life expectancy has generally increased throughout the UK's history, there were several times where the rate deviated from its previous trajectory. These changes were the result of smallpox epidemics in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries, new sanitary and medical advancements throughout time (such as compulsory vaccination), and the First world War and Spanish Flu epidemic in the 1910s.

Chart and table of Serbia life expectancy from 1950 to 2025. United Nations projections are also included through the year 2100.

Chart and table of Costa Rica life expectancy from 1950 to 2025. United Nations projections are also included through the year 2100.

Life expectancy in China was just 32 in the year 1850, and over the course of the next 170 years, it is expected to more than double to 76.6 years in 2020. Between 1850 and 1950, finding reliable data proved difficult for anthropologists, however some events, such as the Taiping Rebellion and Dungan Revolt in the nineteenth century did reduce life expectancy by a few years, and also the Chinese Civil War and Second World War in the first half of the twentieth century. In the second half of the 1900s, Chinese life expectancy increased greatly, as the country became more industrialized and the standard of living increased.

Chart and table of Ukraine life expectancy from 1950 to 2025. United Nations projections are also included through the year 2100.

Life expectancy in Norway was 35 years in 1765, and over the course of the next 255 years, it is expected to have increased to 82.2 years by 2020. Although life expectancy has generally increased throughout history, there were several times where the rate deviated from its previous trajectory. These changes were a result of famine and influenza epidemics between 1765 and 1865, and again in the 1910s because of the Spanish Flu epidemic that spread across Europe.

The U.S. Small-area Life Expectancy Estimates Project (USALEEP) is a partnership of NCHS, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJF)External, and the National Association for Public Health Statistics and Information Systems (NAPHSIS)External to produce a new measure of health for where you live. The USALEEP project produced estimates of life expectancy at birth—the average number of years a person can expect to live—for most of the census tracts in the United States for the period 2010-2015. These estimates were published in September, 2018."A growing body of research is recognizing the importance of measuring mortality outcomes in small geographic areas, such as U.S. census tracts, to identify health disparities within a population. The indicator most widely identified as the ideal measure of a population’s mortality experience is life expectancy at birth. The concept of life expectancy is intuitive and easily understood by both policymakers and the lay public. Life expectancy is estimated for national populations by most developed countries, including the United States, which has produced the estimate annually since 1945 and decennially since 1900. However, its calculation is relatively complex compared with that of other summary mortality measures, because it entails the calculation of six distinct functions and requires a minimum number of age groups and total population size, below\ which the estimates become unstable and unreliable." - USALEEP Methodology Summary The methodology used to calculate the U.S. censustract abridged life tables consisted of several stages. First, through a collaboration between the National Vital Statistics System registration areas and the National Center for Health Statistics, death records of U.S. residents (excluding residents of Maine and Wisconsin) for deaths occurring in 2010 through 2015 were geocoded using decedents’ residential addresses to identify and code census tracts. Second, population estimates were produced based on the 2010 decennial census and the 2011–2015 American Community Survey 5-year survey. Third, a methodology that combined standard demographic techniques and statistical modeling was developed to address challenges posed by small population sizes and small and missing age-specific death counts. Last, standard, abridged life table methods were adjusted to account for error introduced by population estimates based on sample data. To review the full methodology, please use the following link: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/series/sr_02/sr02_181.pdf

Life expectancy in Finland was 35.3 in the year 1765, and over the course of the next 255 years, it is expected to have increased by over double this, to 81.6 years by 2020. Although life expectancy has generally increased throughout Finland's history, it fluctuated greatly between 1765 and 1875, in the 1910s because of the Spanish Flu epidemic that swept across the world and the Finnish Civil War, and again during the Second World War in the 1930s and 40s.