The average temperature in the contiguous United States reached 55.5 degrees Fahrenheit (13 degrees Celsius) in 2024, approximately 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit higher than the 20th-century average. These levels represented a record since measurements started in ****. Monthly average temperatures in the U.S. were also indicative of this trend. Temperatures and emissions are on the rise The rise in temperatures since 1975 is similar to the increase in carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S. Although CO₂ emissions in recent years were lower than when they peaked in 2007, they were still generally higher than levels recorded before 1990. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas and is the main driver of climate change. Extreme weather Scientists worldwide have found links between the rise in temperatures and changing weather patterns. Extreme weather in the U.S. has resulted in natural disasters such as hurricanes and extreme heat waves becoming more likely. Economic damage caused by extreme temperatures in the U.S. has amounted to hundreds of billions of U.S. dollars over the past few decades.

The average temperature in December 2024 was 38.25 degrees Fahrenheit in the United States, the fourth-largest country in the world. The country has extremely diverse climates across its expansive landmass. Temperatures in the United States On the continental U.S., the southern regions face warm to extremely hot temperatures all year round, the Pacific Northwest tends to deal with rainy weather, the Mid-Atlantic sees all four seasons, and New England experiences the coldest winters in the country. The North American country has experienced an increase in the daily minimum temperatures since 1970. Consequently, the average annual temperature in the United States has seen a spike in recent years. Climate Change The entire world has seen changes in its average temperature as a result of climate change. Climate change occurs due to increased levels of greenhouse gases which act to trap heat in the atmosphere, preventing it from leaving the Earth. Greenhouse gases are emitted from various sectors but most prominently from burning fossil fuels. Climate change has significantly affected the average temperature across countries worldwide. In the United States, an increasing number of people have stated that they have personally experienced the effects of climate change. Not only are there environmental consequences due to climate change, but also economic ones. In 2022, for instance, extreme temperatures in the United States caused over 5.5 million U.S. dollars in economic damage. These economic ramifications occur for several reasons, which include higher temperatures, changes in regional precipitation, and rising sea levels.

This dataset provides values for TEMPERATURE reported in several countries. The data includes current values, previous releases, historical highs and record lows, release frequency, reported unit and currency.

Temperature in the United States increased to 10.73 celsius in 2024 from 10.25 celsius in 2023. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States Average Temperature.

The monthly average temperature in the United States between 2020 and 2025 shows distinct seasonal variation, following similar patterns. For instance, in April 2025, the average temperature across the North American country stood at 12.02 degrees Celsius. Rising temperatures Globally, 2016, 2019, 2021 and 2024 were some of the warmest years ever recorded since 1880. Overall, there has been a dramatic increase in the annual temperature since 1895. Within the U.S. annual temperatures show a great deal of variation depending on region. For instance, Florida tends to record the highest maximum temperatures across the North American country, while Wyoming recorded the lowest minimum average temperature in recent years. Carbon dioxide emissions Carbon dioxide is a known driver of climate change, which impacts average temperatures. Global historical carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels have been on the rise since the industrial revolution. In recent years, carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes reached over 37 billion metric tons. Among all countries globally, China was the largest emitter of carbon dioxide in 2023.

This dataset shows the averaged current average temperature presented to sites across the UK from temperatures degrees per day, based on data collected from a 1981-2010 baseline period. The dataset shows the likelihood of a temperature hazard event distributed across 5km hexagonal grids.

Q: Was the month cooler or warmer than usual? A: Colors show where and by how much the monthly average temperature differed from the month’s long-term average temperature from 1991-2020. Red areas were warmer than the 30-year average for the month, and blue areas were cooler. White and very light areas had temperatures close to the long-term average. Q: Where do these measurements come from? A: Daily temperature readings come from weather stations in the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-D). Volunteer observers or automated instruments collect the highest and lowest temperature of the day at each station over the entire month, and submit them to the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). After scientists check the quality of the data to omit any systematic errors, they calculate each station’s monthly average of daily mean temperatures, then plot it on a 5x5 km gridded map. To fill in the grid at locations without stations, a computer program interpolates (or estimates) values, accounting for the distribution of stations and various physical relationships, such as the way temperature changes with elevation. The resulting product is the NOAA Monthly U.S. Climate Gridded Dataset (NClimGrid). To calculate the difference-from-average temperatures shown on these maps—also called temperature anomalies—NCEI scientists take the average temperature in each 5x5 km grid box for a single month and year, and subtract its 1991-2020 average for the same month. If the result is a positive number, the region was warmer than average. A negative result means the region was cooler than usual. Q: What do the colors mean? A: Shades of blue show places where average monthly temperatures were below their long-term average for the month. Areas shown in shades of pink to red had average temperatures that were warmer than usual. The darker the shade of red or blue, the larger the difference from the long-term average temperature. White and very light areas show where average monthly temperature was the same as or very close to the long-term average. Q: Why do these data matter? A: Comparing an area’s recent temperature to its long-term average can tell how warm or how cool the area is compared to usual. Temperature anomalies also give us a frame of reference to better compare locations. For example, two areas might have each had recent temperatures near 70°F, but 70°F could be above average for one location while below average for another. Knowing an area is much warmer or much cooler than usual can encourage people to pay close attention to on-the-ground conditions that affect daily life and decisions. People check maps like this to judge crop progress, estimate energy use, consider snow and lake ice melt; and to understand impacts on wildfire regimes. Q: How did you produce these snapshots? A: Data Snapshots are derivatives of existing data products: to meet the needs of a broad audience, we present the source data in a simplified visual style. This set of snapshots is based on NClimGrid climate data produced by and available from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). To produce our images, we invoke a set of scripts that access the source data and represent them according to our selected color ramps on our base maps. Q: Data Format Description A: NetCDF (Version: 4) Additional information The data used in these snapshots can be downloaded from different places and in different formats. We used these specific data sources: NClimGrid Average Temperature NClimGrid Temperature Normals References NOAA Monthly U.S. Climate Gridded Dataset (NClimGrid) NOAA Monthly U.S. Climate Divisional Database (NClimDiv) Improved Historical Temperature and Precipitation Time Series for U.S. Climate Divisions NCEI Monthly National Analysis Cl

This dataset provides values for TEMPERATURE reported in several countries. The data includes current values, previous releases, historical highs and record lows, release frequency, reported unit and currency.

The highest average temperature recorded in 2024 until November was in August, at 16.8 degrees Celsius. Since 2015, the highest average daily temperature in the UK was registered in July 2018, at 18.7 degrees Celsius. The summer of 2018 was the joint hottest since institutions began recording temperatures in 1910. One noticeable anomaly during this period was in December 2015, when the average daily temperature reached 9.5 degrees Celsius. This month also experienced the highest monthly rainfall in the UK since before 2014, with England, Wales, and Scotland suffering widespread flooding. Daily hours of sunshine Unsurprisingly, the heat wave that spread across the British Isles in 2018 was the result of particularly sunny weather. July 2018 saw an average of 8.7 daily sun hours in the United Kingdom. This was more hours of sun than was recorded in July 2024, which only saw 5.8 hours of sun. Temperatures are on the rise Since the 1960s, there has been an increase in regional temperatures across the UK. Between 1961 and 1990, temperatures in England averaged nine degrees Celsius, and from 2013 to 2022, average temperatures in the country had increased to 10.3 degrees Celsius. Due to its relatively southern location, England continues to rank as the warmest country in the UK.

Q: What was the average temperature for the month? A: Colors show the average monthly temperature across the contiguous United States. White and very light areas had average temperatures near 50°F. Blue areas on the map were cooler than 50°F; the darker the blue, the cooler the average temperature. Orange to red areas were warmer than 50°F; the darker the shade, the warmer the monthly average temperature. Q: Where do these measurements come from? A: Daily temperature readings come from weather stations in the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-D). Volunteer observers or automated instruments collect the highest and lowest temperature of the day at each station over the entire month, and submit them to the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). After scientists check the quality of the data to omit any systematic errors, they calculate each station’s monthly average of daily mean temperatures, then plot it on a 5x5 km gridded map. To fill in the grid at locations without stations, a computer program interpolates (or estimates) values, accounting for the distribution of stations and various physical relationships, such as the way temperature changes with elevation. The resulting product is the NOAA Monthly U.S. Climate Gridded Dataset (NClimGrid). Q: What do the colors mean? A: Shades of blue show areas that had monthly average temperatures below 50°F. The darker the shade of blue, the lower the average temperature. Areas shown in shades of orange and red had average temperatures above 50°F. The darker the shade of orange or red, the higher the average temperature. White or very light colors show areas where the average temperature was near 50°F. Q: Why do these data matter? A: The 5x5km NClimGrid data allow scientists to report on recent temperature conditions and track long-term trends at a variety of spatial scales. The gridded cells are used to create statewide, regional and national snapshots of climate conditions. Energy companies use this information to estimate demand for heating and air conditioning. Agricultural businesses also use these data to optimize timing of planting, harvesting, and putting livestock to pasture. Q: How did you produce these snapshots? A: Data Snapshots are derivatives of existing data products; to meet the needs of a broad audience, we present the source data in a simplified visual style. This set of snapshots is based on NClimGrid climate data produced by and available from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). To produce our images, we invoke a set of scripts that access the source data and represent them according to our selected color ramps on our base maps. Additional information The data used in these snapshots can be downloaded from different places and in different formats. We used these specific data sources: NClimGrid Average Temperature References NOAA Monthly U.S. Climate Gridded Dataset (NClimGrid) NOAA Monthly U.S. Climate Divisional Database (NClimDiv) Improved Historical Temperature and Precipitation Time Series for U.S. Climate Divisions) NCEI Monthly National Analysis) Climate at a Glance - Data Information) NCEI Climate Monitoring - All Products Source: https://www.climate.gov/maps-data/data-snapshots/data-source/temperature-us-monthly-averageThis upload includes two additional files:* Temperature - US Monthly Average _NOAA Climate.gov.pdf is a screenshot of the main Climate.gov site for these snapshots.* Cimate_gov_ Data Snapshots.pdf is a screenshot of the data download page for the full-resolution files.

Temperature in Russia increased to -2.63 celsius in 2024 from -2.82 celsius in 2023. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for Russia Average Temperature.

This file contains additional resolutions of the same images as in https://www.datalumos.org/datalumos/project/233461/version/V2/view. Q: Where was the monthly temperature warmer or cooler than usual? A: Colors show where average monthly temperature was above or below its 1991-2020 average. Blue areas experienced cooler-than-usual temperatures while areas shown in red were warmer than usual. The darker the color, the larger the difference from the long-term average temperature. Q: Where do these measurements come from? A: Weather stations on every continent record temperatures over land, and ocean surface temperatures come from measurements made by ships and buoys. NOAA scientists merge the readings from land and ocean into a single dataset. To calculate difference-from-average temperatures—also called temperature anomalies—scientists calculate the average monthly temperature across hundreds of small regions, and then subtract each region’s 1991-2020 average for the same month. If the result is a positive number, the region was warmer than the long-term average. A negative result from the subtraction means the region was cooler than usual. To generate the source images, visualizers apply a mathematical filter to the results to produce a map that has smooth color transitions and no gaps. Q: What do the colors mean? A: Shades of red show where average monthly temperature was warmer than the 1991-2020 average for the same month. Shades of blue show where the monthly average was cooler than the long-term average. The darker the color, the larger the difference from average temperature. White and very light areas were close to their long-term average temperature. Gray areas near the North and South Poles show where no data are available. Q: Why do these data matter? A: Over time, these data give us a planet-wide picture of how climate varies over months and years and changes over decades. Each month, some areas are cooler than the long-term average and some areas are warmer. Though we don’t see an increase in temperature at every location every month, the long-term trend shows a growing portion of Earth’s surface is warmer than it was during the base period. Q: How did you produce these snapshots? A: Data Snapshots are derivatives of existing data products: to meet the needs of a broad audience, we present the source data in a simplified visual style. NOAA's Environmental Visualization Laboratory (NNVL) produces the source images for the Difference from Average Temperature – Monthly maps. To produce our images, we run a set of scripts that access the source images, re-project them into desired projections at various sizes, and output them with a custom color bar. Additional information Source images available through NOAA's Environmental Visualization Lab (NNVL) are interpolated from data originally provided by the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI) - Weather and Climate. NNVL images are based on NOAA Merged Land Ocean Global Surface Temperature Analysis data (NOAAGlobalTemp, formerly known as MLOST). References NCEI Monthly Global Analysis NOAA View Temperature Anomaly Merged Land Ocean Global Surface Temperature Analysis Global Surface Temperature Anomalies Climate at a Glance - Data Information Source: https://www.climate.gov/maps-data/data-snapshots/data-source/temperature-global-monthly-difference-a... This upload includes two additional files: * Temperature - Global Monthly, Difference from Average _NOAA Climate.gov.pdf is a screenshot of the main Climate.gov site for these snapshots (https://www.climate.gov/maps-data/data-snapshots/data-source/temperature-global-monthly-difference-a...) * Cimate_gov_ Data Snapshots.pdf is a screenshot of the data download page for the full-resolution files.

The National Forest Climate Change Maps project was developed by the Rocky Mountain Research Station (RMRS) and the Office of Sustainability and Climate to meet the needs of national forest managers for information on projected climate changes at a scale relevant to decision making processes, including forest plans. The maps use state-of-the-art science and are available for every national forest in the contiguous United States with relevant data coverage. Currently, the map sets include variables related to precipitation, air temperature, snow (including snow residence time and April 1 snow water equivalent), and stream flow.

Historical (1975-2005) and future (2071-2090) precipitation and temperature data for the contiguous United States are ensemble mean values across 20 global climate models from the CMIP5 experiment (https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1), downscaled to a 4 km grid. For more information on the downscaling method and to access the data, please see Abatzoglou and Brown, 2012 (https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/joc.2312) and the Northwest Knowledge Network (https://climate.northwestknowledge.net/MACA/). We used the MACAv2- Metdata monthly dataset; average temperature values were calculated as the mean of monthly minimum and maximum air temperature values (degrees C), averaged over the season of interest (annual, winter, or summer). Absolute change was then calculated between the historical and future time periods.

Raster data are also available for download from RMRS site (https://www.fs.usda.gov/rm/boise/AWAE/projects/NFS-regional-climate-change-maps/categories/us-raster-layers.html), along with pdf maps and detailed metadata (https://www.fs.usda.gov/rm/boise/AWAE/projects/NFS-regional-climate-change-maps/downloads/NationalForestClimateChangeMapsMetadata.pdf).

Context

Who among us doesn't talk a little about the weather now and then? Will it rain tomorrow and get so cold to shake your chin or will it make that cracking sun? Does global warming exist?

With this dataset, you can apply machine learning tools to predict the average temperature of Detroit city based on historical data collected over 5 years.

Content

The given data set was produced from the Historical Hourly Weather Data [https://www.kaggle.com/selfishgene/historical-hourly-weather-data], which consists of about 5 years of hourly measurements of various weather attributes (eg. temperature, humidity, air pressure) from 30 US and Canadian cities.

From this rich database, a cutout was made by selecting only the city of Detroit (USA), highlighting only the temperature, converting it to Celsius degrees and keeping only one value for each date (corresponding to the average daytime temperature - from 9am to 5pm).

In addition, temperature values ​​were artificially and gradually increased by a few Celsius degrees over the available period. This will simulate a small global warming (or is it local?)...

In summary, the available dataset contains the average daily temperatures (collected during the day), artificially increased by a certain value, for the city of Detroit from October 2012 to November 2017.

The purpose of this dataset is to apply forecasting models in order to predict the value of the artificially warmed average daily temperature of Detroit.

See graph in the following image: black dots refer to the actual data and the blue line represents the predictive model (including a confidence area).

https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-user-content/o/inbox%2F3089313%2Faf9614514242dfb6164a08c013bf6e35%2Fplot-ts2.png?generation=1567827710930876&alt=media" alt="">

Acknowledgements

This dataset wouldn't be possible without the previous work in Historical Hourly Weather Data.

Inspiration

What are the best forecasting models to address this particular problem? TBATS, ARIMA, Prophet? You tell me!

Temperature in Iran decreased to 19.18 celsius in 2024 from 19.61 celsius in 2023. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for Iran Average Temperature.

Based on current monthly figures, on average, German climate has gotten a bit warmer. The average temperature for January 2025 was recorded at around 2 degrees Celsius, compared to 1.5 degrees a year before. In the broader context of climate change, average monthly temperatures are indicative of where the national climate is headed and whether attempts to control global warming are successful. Summer and winter Average summer temperature in Germany fluctuated in recent years, generally between 18 to 19 degrees Celsius. The season remains generally warm, and while there may not be as many hot and sunny days as in other parts of Europe, heat waves have occurred. In fact, 2023 saw 11.5 days with a temperature of at least 30 degrees, though this was a decrease compared to the year before. Meanwhile, average winter temperatures also fluctuated, but were higher in recent years, rising over four degrees on average in 2024. Figures remained in the above zero range since 2011. Numbers therefore suggest that German winters are becoming warmer, even if individual regions experiencing colder sub-zero snaps or even more snowfall may disagree. Rain, rain, go away Average monthly precipitation varied depending on the season, though sometimes figures from different times of the year were comparable. In 2024, the average monthly precipitation was highest in May and September, although rainfalls might increase in October and November with the beginning of the cold season. In the past, torrential rains have led to catastrophic flooding in Germany, with one of the most devastating being the flood of July 2021. Germany is not immune to the weather changing between two extremes, e.g. very warm spring months mostly without rain, when rain might be wished for, and then increased precipitation in other months where dry weather might be better, for example during planting and harvest seasons. Climate change remains on the agenda in all its far-reaching ways.

[Updated 28/01/25 to fix an issue in the ‘Lower’ values, which were not fully representing the range of uncertainty. ‘Median’ and ‘Higher’ values remain unchanged. The size of the change varies by grid cell and fixed period/global warming levels but the average difference between the 'lower' values before and after this update is 0.09°C.]What does the data show? This dataset shows the change in summer average temperature for a range of global warming levels, including the recent past (2001-2020), compared to the 1981-2000 baseline period. Here, summer is defined as June-July-August. Note, as the values in this dataset are averaged over a season they do not represent possible extreme conditions.The dataset uses projections of daily average air temperature from UKCP18 which are averaged over the summer period to give values for the 1981-2000 baseline, the recent past (2001-2020) and global warming levels. The warming levels available are 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C and 4.0°C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The recent past value and global warming level values are stated as a change (in °C) relative to the 1981-2000 value. This enables users to compare summer average temperature trends for the different periods. In addition to the change values, values for the 1981-2000 baseline (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and recent past (2001-2020, corresponding to 0.87°C warming) are also provided. This is summarised in the table below.PeriodDescription1981-2000 baselineAverage temperature (°C) for the period2001-2020 (recent past)Average temperature (°C) for the period2001-2020 (recent past) changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20001.5°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20002°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20002.5°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20003°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20004°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-2000What is a global warming level?The Summer Average Temperature Change is calculated from the UKCP18 regional climate projections using the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow. Instead of considering future climate change during specific time periods (e.g. decades) for this scenario, the dataset is calculated at various levels of global warming relative to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The world has already warmed by around 1.1°C (between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020), whilst this dataset allows for the exploration of greater levels of warming. The global warming levels available in this dataset are 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C and 4°C. The data at each warming level was calculated using a 21 year period. These 21 year periods are calculated by taking 10 years either side of the first year at which the global warming level is reached. This time will be different for different model ensemble members. To calculate the value for the Summer Average Temperature Change, an average is taken across the 21 year period.We cannot provide a precise likelihood for particular emission scenarios being followed in the real world future. However, we do note that RCP8.5 corresponds to emissions considerably above those expected with current international policy agreements. The results are also expressed for several global warming levels because we do not yet know which level will be reached in the real climate as it will depend on future greenhouse emission choices and the sensitivity of the climate system, which is uncertain. Estimates based on the assumption of current international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions suggest a median warming level in the region of 2.4-2.8°C, but it could either be higher or lower than this level.What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?These data contain a field for each warming level and the 1981-2000 baseline. They are named 'tas summer change' (change in air 'temperature at surface'), the warming level or baseline, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. e.g. 'tas summer change 2.0 median' is the median value for summer for the 2.0°C warming level. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not in field names, e.g. 'tas summer change 2.0 median' is named 'tas_summer_change_20_median'. To understand how to explore the data, refer to the New Users ESRI Storymap. Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘tas summer change 2.0°C median’ values.What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future.For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, the Summer Average Temperature Change was calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location.The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘higher’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and higher fields, the greater the uncertainty.‘Lower’, ‘median’ and ‘upper’ are also given for the baseline period as these values also come from the model that was used to produce the projections. This allows a fair comparison between the model projections and recent past. Useful linksFor further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP).Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal.

Includes Average Temperature of US States from Jan 1950 - Aug 2022

Source: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/cag/statewide/mapping/110/tavg/202208/1/value

References: NOAA National Centers for Environmental information, Climate at a Glance: Statewide Mapping, Average Temperature, published September 2022, retrieved on October 8, 2022 from https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/

The North America climate data were derived from WorldClim, a set of global climate layers developed by the Museum of Vertebrate Zoology at the University of California, Berkeley, USA, in collaboration with The International Center for Tropical Agriculture and Rainforest CRC with support from NatureServe.The global climate data layers were generated through interpolation of average monthly climate data from weather stations across North America. The result is a 30-arc-second-resolution (1-Km) grid of mean temperature values. The North American data were clipped from the global data and reprojected to the standard Lambert Azimuthal Equal Area projection used for the North American Environmental Atlas. Background information on the WorldClim database is available in: Very High-Resolution Interpolated Climate Surfaces for Global Land Areas; Hijmans, R.J., S.E. Cameron, J.L. Parra, P.G. Jones and A. Jarvis; International Journal of Climatology 25: 1965-1978; 2005.Files Download

[Updated 28/01/25 to fix an issue in the ‘Lower’ values, which were not fully representing the range of uncertainty. ‘Median’ and ‘Higher’ values remain unchanged. The size of the change varies by grid cell and fixed period/global warming levels but the average difference between the 'lower' values before and after this update is 0.13°C.]What does the data show? This dataset shows the change in annual temperature for a range of global warming levels, including the recent past (2001-2020), compared to the 1981-2000 baseline period. Note, as the values in this dataset are averaged over a year they do not represent possible extreme conditions.The dataset uses projections of daily average air temperature from UKCP18 which are averaged to give values for the 1981-2000 baseline, the recent past (2001-2020) and global warming levels. The warming levels available are 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C and 4.0°C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The recent past value and global warming level values are stated as a change (in °C) relative to the 1981-2000 value. This enables users to compare annual average temperature trends for the different periods. In addition to the change values, values for the 1981-2000 baseline (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and recent past (2001-2020, corresponding to 0.87°C warming) are also provided. This is summarised in the table below.

PeriodDescription 1981-2000 baselineAverage temperature (°C) for the period 2001-2020 (recent past)Average temperature (°C) for the period 2001-2020 (recent past) changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-2000 1.5°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-2000 2°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20002.5°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-2000 3°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-2000 4°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-2000What is a global warming level?The Annual Average Temperature Change is calculated from the UKCP18 regional climate projections using the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow. Instead of considering future climate change during specific time periods (e.g. decades) for this scenario, the dataset is calculated at various levels of global warming relative to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The world has already warmed by around 1.1°C (between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020), whilst this dataset allows for the exploration of greater levels of warming. The global warming levels available in this dataset are 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C and 4°C. The data at each warming level was calculated using a 21 year period. These 21 year periods are calculated by taking 10 years either side of the first year at which the global warming level is reached. This time will be different for different model ensemble members. To calculate the value for the Annual Average Temperature Change, an average is taken across the 21 year period.We cannot provide a precise likelihood for particular emission scenarios being followed in the real world future. However, we do note that RCP8.5 corresponds to emissions considerably above those expected with current international policy agreements. The results are also expressed for several global warming levels because we do not yet know which level will be reached in the real climate as it will depend on future greenhouse emission choices and the sensitivity of the climate system, which is uncertain. Estimates based on the assumption of current international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions suggest a median warming level in the region of 2.4-2.8°C, but it could either be higher or lower than this level.What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?This data contains a field for the 1981-2000 baseline, 2001-2020 period and each warming level. They are named 'tas annual change' (change in air 'temperature at surface'), the warming level or historic time period, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. e.g. 'tas annual change 2.0 median' is the median value for the 2.0°C warming level. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not in field names, e.g. 'tas annual change 2.0 median' is named 'tas_annual_change_20_median'. To understand how to explore the data, refer to the New Users ESRI Storymap. Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘tas annual change 2.0°C median’ values.What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future.For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, the Annual Average Temperature Change was calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location.The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘higher’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and higher fields, the greater the uncertainty.‘Lower’, ‘median’ and ‘upper’ are also given for the baseline period as these values also come from the model that was used to produce the projections. This allows a fair comparison between the model projections and recent past. Useful linksFor further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP).Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal.