After to as low as low as 0.55 percent in July 2020, in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, the yield on 10-year U.S treasury bonds increased considerably. As of June 2024, it reached 4.36 percent.

In December 2024, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was 4.39 percent, forecasted to decrease to reach 3.27 percent by August 2025. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

The yield on two year U.S. treasury bonds started increasing since 2021, reaching a new peak of 5.08 percent in October 2023. This comes after the yields for two-year treasury bonds plummeted down to less than 0.2 for much of 2020 owing to the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

At the end of 2024, the yield for a 30-year U.S. Treasury bond was 4.78 percent, slightly higher than the yields for bonds with short-term maturities. Bonds of longer maturities generally have higher yields as a reward for the uncertainty about the condition of financial markets in the future.

In 2023, the yield on 10-year U.S. treasury securities increased to 3.96 percent, up from 2.95 percent in the previous year. 2020 recorded the lowest value in the period under consideration, and well below the longer-term average. In 1980 the yield was 11.43 percent. What are treasury securities? The United States government consistently has a budget deficit, and it finances this spending with debt issued by the Treasury Department. These treasury securities are attractive investments because most investors believe that the United States Treasury Department will never default. For this reason, many investors of different varieties hold these securities. Country differences The markets consider treasury securities to be low-risk, as they are secured by governments. Different countries differ in level of indebtment, value of investments, stability of currency, GDP growth, inflation, etc. These factors are the reasons why yields on government bonds differ from country to country. The yield shows how much a given government has to pay to the investors for the money that it borrows.

As of October 16, 2024, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.04 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.96 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in 2022 and 2023. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

The average market yield on the United States Treasury's 10-year bond was 2.13 percent during the second quarter of 2024. This rate was adjusted to reflect a constant maturity and also indexed to inflation, giving an idea of real returns for longer-term investments. The recent expected return was highest at the end of the end of the last quarter of 2024, and lowest in the second half of 2021, when it was negative.

At the end of 2023, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond was 3.96 percent. The highest yields could be observed in the early 1990s. What affects bond prices? The factors that play a big role in valuation and interest in government bonds are interest rate and inflation. If inflation is expected to be high, investors will demand a higher return on bonds. Country credit ratings indicate how stable the economy is and thus also influence the government bond prices. Risk and bonds Finally, when investors are worried about the bond issuer’s ability to pay at the end of the term, they demand a higher interest rate. For the U.S. Treasury, the vast majority of investors consider the investment to be perfectly safe. Ten-year government bonds from other countries show that countries seen as more risky have a higher bond return. On the other hand, countries in which investors do not expect economic growth have a lower yield.

Key information about China Long Term Interest Rate

• China Treasury Bond Yield: Interbank: Spot Yield: 10 year was reported at 1.64 % pa in Jan 2025, compared with 1.69 % pa in the previous month.
• China Long Term Interest Rate data is updated monthly, available from Jul 2008 to Jan 2025.
• The data reached an all-time high of 4.63 % pa in Dec 2013 and a record low of 1.64 % pa in Jan 2025.
• Long Term Interest Rate is reported by reported by National Interbank Funding Center.

• In the latest reports, China Short Term Interest Rate: Month End: SHIBOR: 3 Months was reported at 1.70 % pa in Jan 2025.
• The cash rate (Policy Rate: Month End: China: Rediscount Rate) was set at 2.65 % pa in Jun 2023.
• China Exchange Rate against USD averaged 7.16 (USD/RMB) in Jun 2023.

This statistic shows money market interest rates of short term government securities in the United States from 2007 to 2023. In December 2021, the average market yield of 3-month treasury bills on U.S. government securities amounted to 0.06 percent. Due to increased policy rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve, interest rates on government securities rose throughout 2022 and 2023, reaching an average of 5.44 percent for the 3-month treasury bill and 5.34 percent for the 6-month treasury bill.

The average rates for U.S. government three-month Treasury bills on the secondary marekt fluctuated significantly from 1970 to 2023 while decreasing overall. In 2023, the average rate for a three-month U.S. Treasury bill was five percent.

Geneva, Switzerland, was the most expensive city to buy an apartment in Europe in the first quarter of 2024. The square meter price in Geneva was nearly 15,650 euros in that quarter, about 2,000 euros higher than the second city in the ranking, Zurich. Cost of rent Rents across the major cities in Europe increased significantly in 2023. One of the main factors driving high rents across European cities is the same as any other consumer-driven business. If demand outweighs supply, prices will inflate. The drive for high paid professionals to be located centrally in prime locations, mixed with the low levels of available space, high land, and construction costs, all help keep rental prices increasing. Mortgage rates The average mortgage interest rates across Europe in 2023 were all under five percent, except in Czechia, Romania, Hungary, and Poland. On an individual level, a difference of one percent would most likely mean thousands of euros in interest on the mortgage a person is paying, making timing key in house purchasing. Mortgage interest rates tend to be lower in Nordic countries due to the financial stability and reliability of its borrowers. Other factors that influence the mortgage interest rates include inflation, economic growth, monetary policies, the bond market and the overall conditions of the housing market. More stable markets also tend to have higher average prices.

As of December 30, 2024, the major economy with the highest yield on 10-year government bonds was Turkey, with a yield of 27.38 percent. This is due to the risks investors take when investing in Turkey, notably due to high inflation rates potentially eradicating any profits made when using a foreign currency to investing in securities denominated in Turkish lira. Of the major developed economies, United States had one the highest yield on 10-year government bonds at this time with 4.59 percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at 0.27 percent. How does inflation influence the yields of government bonds? Inflation reduces purchasing power over time. Due to this, investors seek higher returns to offset the anticipated decrease in purchasing power resulting from rapid price rises. In countries with high inflation, government bond yields often incorporate investor expectations and risk premiums, resulting in comparatively higher rates offered by these bonds. Why are government bond rates significant? Government bond rates are an important indicator of financial markets, serving as a benchmark for borrowing costs, interest rates, and investor sentiment. They affect the cost of government borrowing, influence the price of various financial instruments, and serve as a reflection of expectations regarding inflation and economic growth. For instance, in financial analysis and investing, people often use the 10-year U.S. government bond rates as a proxy for the longer-term risk-free rate.

The United States Treasury's 10-year bond earned an average return of 1.68 percent in 2023. This rate was adjusted to reflect a constant maturity and also indexed to inflation, giving an idea of real returns for longer-term investments. This expected return averaged around two percent before the financial crisis but was negative in 2011, 2012, 2020, and 2021.

In August 2024, the average yield on ten-year government bonds in the United States was equal to 3.87 percent. This was the highest of the selected developed economies considered in this statistic. The countries with the lowest yield were Germany and Japan, with 2.24 and 0.88 percent respectively. Bonds and yields – additional information The bond yield indicates the level of return that the investor can expect from a given type of bond. The government of Italy, for instance, offered the investors 3.63 percent yield on ten-year government bonds for borrowing their money in August 2024. In the United States, government needs are also financed by selling various debt instruments such as Treasury bills, notes, bonds and savings bonds to investors. The largest holders of U.S. debt are Federal Reserve and Government accounts in the United States. The major foreign holders of the United States treasury securities are Japan, Mainland China, and the United Kingdom.

The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to decline by 0.8 percent by 2026, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by 1.6 percent. From seven percent in the third quarter of 2023, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach 5.4 percent in 2026.

In 2018, the average total volume of treasury securities traded per day was over 547 billion U.S. dollars. This means that every day the market was open, the average amount of U.S. government securities bought and sold amounted to half a trillion U.S. dollars in that year.

What are treasury securities?

Treasury securities are U.S. government debt, bonds sold to finance the United States government. Since the United States is seen as a guaranteed investment, these bonds are often used by large financial firms as collateral. The yield on a Treasury bond is minimal, but these institutions often do not hold them until maturity, instead trading them on secondary market.

Other options

The federal funds rate is the rate the Federal Reserve charges banks for overnight loans. Other assets, such as mortgaged backed securities, can also be used like treasury securities. Mortgage backed securities are bundles of home loans packaged together. Such bundling makes the overall security safer, unless there is a systemic shock to the housing market which would undermine the entire package.

The statistic represents the rates for U.S. government six-month Treasury bills from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, the average rate for a six-month U.S. Treasury bill was 2.05 percent.

The average yearly yield of French 10-year government bonds has shown a significant downward trend from 1990 to 2023. Starting at nearly ten percent in 1990, yields steadily declined, with slight fluctuations, reaching a low of -0.14 percent in 2020. After 2020, yields began to rise again, reflecting recent increases in interest rates and inflation expectations. This long-term decline indicates decreasing inflation and interest rates in Australia over the past decades, with recent economic conditions prompting a reversal in bond yields.

The 2020 recession did not follow the trend of previous recessions in the United States because only six months elapsed between the yield curve inversion and the 2020 recession. Over the last five decades, 12 months, on average, has elapsed between the initial yield curve inversion and the beginning of a recession in the United States. For instance, the yield curve inverted initially in January 2006, which was 22 months before the start of the 2008 recession. A yield curve inversion refers to the event where short-term Treasury bonds, such as one or three month bonds, have higher yields than longer term bonds, such as three or five year bonds. This is unusual, because long-term investments typically have higher yields than short-term ones in order to reward investors for taking on the extra risk of longer term investments. Monthly updates on the Treasury yield curve can be seen here.