In 2023, the average ratio of nonperforming real estate corporate loans of the leading Chinese banks stood at 3.89 percent, a slight increase compared to the previous year. The ongoing real estate crisis changes the dynamic of the industry, which is why banks have to engage in risk management strategies to adapt to the new reality.

A survey of bank managers working in the operation and credit risk department at different hierarchical levels of individual commercial banks in China responsible for bank credit analyses and risk evaluations covering the procedure from loan application to final decision. The objective is to understand the internal organization arrangement of Chinese commercial banks in the provision of bank credit to SMEs. The focus is on the incentives and constraints faced by branch managers in the interaction with SMEs. The enquiry reflects the notion that the branch manager who directly interacts with the SME borrower plays a critical role in the information collection and processing in the lending decision. The incentives and constraints faced by branch manager are shaped by the type of organization of the bank: the degree of decision-making centralization, modes of communication between hierarchical levels, and the adoption of statistical techniques for risk evaluation.

The Chinese financial system has served the Chinese economy well in the early stages of development in channeling domestic savings to domestic investment. But, continued financial repression, along with a growing middle class and ageing population has created pressure on savings to 'search for yield'. At the same time, the dominance of lending to state-owned-enterprises, political constraints, inefficiencies and weak risk management practice by financial institutions (FI) have pushed SMEs to alternative sources of funding. The demand for yield from savers and funds from private investment has been met by the rapid growth in shadow banking.

This study encompasses two of the identified themes of the research call. The research theme 'alternative strategies for reform and liberalization' covers the role of the Shadow Bank system in the credit intermediation process. This research is of critical importance because it informs the macroeconomic research necessary for investigating 'the role of the Chinese financial system in sustaining economic growth'. Addressing the first research theme we take a dual track approach to better understand the role of the financial system in sustaining in economic growth. The first track examines the role of bank and non-bank finance in promoting long-term economic growth at the regional level. The second track is aimed at the more short-term issue of identifying the potential frequency of macro-economic crises generated by a banking crisis.

The finance-growth nexus is a well-established area of economic development, however the China experience questions the supposition that financial development is a necessary precondition. The empirical findings are mixed. Part of the reason for this could be the failure to distinguish between the quality of financial institutions across regions, and the openness of the local environment in terms of the balance between private and public enterprises. Our research would build on the existing literature in two ways. First, it would utilise imperfect but available data on informal finance to examine direct and spill-over effects on medium term growth from contiguous provinces. Second, primary data on the geographic dimension in shadow bank lending gleaned from Theme 2 research will be used to design a weighting system to adjust financial flows for the quality of the local financial environment. The second prong will develop a small macroeconomic model of a hybrid DSGE type that incorporates a banking sector including shadow banks.

Such models have been developed for China in recent times but only a few have attempted to incorporate a banking sector. These models are mostly calibrated versions and make no attempt to test the structure against the data. Recent attempts to test a hybrid New Keynesian-RBC DSGE type model for the Chinese economy using the method of indirect inference have been successful and inclusion of a shadow banks have shown some success. The results of the Theme 2 study will inform the development of a fuller shadow banking sector in the macroeconomic model that will be used to estimate the frequency of economic crises generated by bank crises. Theme 2 research will examine the relationship between the banking system and the shadow banking system as complements or substitutes. It will aim to determine the variable interest rate on the P2P online lending platform on the basis of risk-return, the home bias in online investments, and the signaling and screening in the P2P online lending platform. Finally, it will aim to identify the impact of shadow banking on entrepreneurial activity, the industrial growth rate and regional housing investment and price differentials. These results would inform the theme 1 research on the interconnectedness of shadow banking with the mainstream and the fragility of the financial system to shocks and financial crises.

Since the 2011 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP), China’s economic growth has remained strong, although a necessary economic transformation is underway. China now has the world’s largest GDP in PPP terms, and poverty rates have fallen. However, medium-term growth prospects have moderated. The limits to the investment-driven growth strategy, combined with an aging population, waning dividends from past reforms, and a challenging external environment, have necessitated a transformation towards a more market-oriented economy that is more consumption-based, more services-driven, less credit-dependent and, especially, more efficient. This transformation has already started, as the Chinese authorities are increasingly emphasizing the quality of growth and have pushed structural reforms. The economic transformation requires a fundamental change in the role of the financial system. Historically its role was to channel China’s high savings at low cost to strategic sectors. China’s economic rebalancing is multi-dimensional, and there is a need to significantly improve the financial sector’s capital allocation to promote the rebalancing from investment to consumption; from heavy manufacturing to services; and from large to small enterprises. Looking ahead, the financial system will need to become more balanced, sustainable and inclusive, to facilitate China’s economic transformation, where markets play an increasingly dominant role in resource allocation and where consequences of risk-taking are well-understood and accepted. Maintaining financial stability would also require that remaining gaps in regulatory frameworks be addressed. The standard assessments for the banking, insurance, and securities sectors show a high degree of compliance with international standards, but also point to critical gaps. Themes that cut across China’s regulatory agencies include a lack of independence, insufficient resources for supervising a large and increasingly complex financial sector, and inadequate interagency coordination and systemic risk analysis. The remaining priorities for financial market infrastructure oversight include the adoption of full delivery-versus-payment and a stronger legal basis for settlement finality. Further enhancements to crisis management frameworks are needed to allow financial institutions to fail in a manner that minimizes the impact on financial stability and public resources. This would require amongst others greater emphasis on financial stability rather than social concerns in dealing with real and potential crisis situations, the introduction of a special resolution regime for failing banks, and a streamlining of the current system of financial safety nets.

In 2024, China’s monetary authority, the People’s Bank of China, issued more than ** trillion yuan which was the highest amount issued in one year so far. Over the past years, the value of printed money increased steadily. The issuing of currency was one function of a central bank. Maintaining price stability One of the main policy objectives of the People’s Bank of China was to maintain price stability. Typically, countries set the desired inflation target and the central bank implements the necessary policies to achieve the said target. Usually, China keeps its inflation target at around ***** percent, but in 2021, the inflation rate dropped to under *** percent. If the inflation rate is too low, central banks can issue more currency and decrease the interest rate. In the opposite scenario, if the inflation rate is too high central banks try to reduce the amount of money in circulation by increasing the interest rate or decreasing bond prices. Managing the economy In capitalist market economies, economies usually undergo a boom and bust cycle. Central banks attempt to counteract this cyclical development to soften the impact for its citizens. For instance, the Chinese government aims to maintain an unemployment rate of around **** percent. However, crises such as the 2008 financial crisis and the outbreak of COVID-19 have an unforeseen impact on the economy. To lower the employment rate, the People’s Bank engaged specific monetary policies to stimulate the economy with the aim of increasing job creation.

The Silicon Valley Bank crisis that occurred in March 2023 highlights the importance of studying the risk transmission mechanism underlying monetary policy. To explore this mechanism in the monetary and financial services sector from the perspective of asset-liability management, the relationships between asset- and liability-side risks and the corresponding action direction of those risks were empirically studied based on the risk-taking channel theory of monetary policy using publicly available information on 176 Chinese monetary and financial services companies covering the period of 2000 to 2022. The analysis shows that asset-side risks are transmitted through monetary policy as liability-side risks in the monetary and financial service sectors. If the liability side passively takes on these risks, the action direction of monetary policy to asset-side risks is determined; when the liability side actively takes on these risks, monetary policy exerts opposite effects on both types of risks. This conclusion somewhat deepens our understanding of the risk transmission mechanism of monetary policy, which is helpful in better formulating and implementing monetary policy.

In the first quarter of 2025, TD Bank's U.S. operations distinguished itself with the highest common equity tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio among major U.S. banks by total assets. The bank's CET1 ratio of 17.56 percent significantly surpassed the regulatory minimum of 4.5 percent. By comparison, JPMorgan Chase, the largest U.S. bank, recorded a CET1 ratio of 15.42 percent during the same period. What is CET1 capital ratio? The Basel III framework, established by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, sets international standards for bank capital requirements to ensure global financial stability. Developed in response to the 2007-2009 financial crisis, these regulations require banks to maintain adequate capital to withstand unexpected losses and economic downturns. The framework mandates a total capital requirement of eight percent of risk-weighted assets, with Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) - the highest quality capital - comprising at least 4.5 percent of that total. In 2024, JPMorgan Chase had the highest Tier 1 capital among all banks in the United States. Worldwide Tier 1 capital levels of banks JPMorgan Chase, while leading U.S. banks in Tier 1 capital, ranked fifth globally in 2024. Four Chinese banks outperformed it: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Bank of China. Among these, ICBC emerged as the world's top bank in Tier 1 capital.

Revenue for the Residential Real Estate industry in China is expected to decrease at a CAGR of 9.8% over the five years through 2025. This trend includes an expected decrease of 9.6% in the current year.Since August 2020, the People's Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission have proposed three debt indicators for real estate development and management companies through which the company's financial health can be rated. This new policy has exacerbated the company's debt pressure, making it unable to repay old debts by borrowing new debt. Some real estate companies faced a liquidity crisis.In 2022, the city's lockdown and laying-off caused by COVID-19 epidemic led to the pressure of delaying the delivery of houses. The industry's newly constructed and completed areas decreased significantly throughout the year. In addition, the epidemic has impacted sales in the industry, and some sales offices have been forced to close temporarily. In 2022, the residential sales area decreased by 26.8%, and the residential sales decreased by 31.2%.Industry revenue will recover at an annualized 0.7% over the five years through 2030. Over the next five years, the industry's drag on GDP will weaken, and industry growth will stabilize. However, high housing prices have become a major social problem in China. Under the measures on the principle that residential real estate is used for living, not speculation, the financial attributes of real estate will gradually weaken, and housing prices will tend to stabilize.

Market Size and Growth: The China luxury residential real estate market was valued at $146.25 million in 2025 and is projected to reach $170.78 million by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 6.28% during the forecast period. Strong economic growth, rising disposable incomes, and increasing urbanization are fueling the demand for luxury residential properties in major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou. Key Trends and Drivers: The market is characterized by growing demand for premium amenities, such as smart home systems, rooftop gardens, and concierge services. Government policies are also encouraging the development of luxury residential properties, with increased investment in infrastructure and incentives for foreign investors. Additionally, the rise of the high-net-worth individual (HNWI) population in China and the increasing interest in international buyers are driving the market upwards. However, factors such as strict government regulations, rising construction costs, and limited land supply may pose challenges for the industry. Recent developments include: December 2022: A joint venture led by Shui On Land has won the land-use rights to develop a residential project on a plot in Shanghai’s Yangpu district with a bid of RMB 2.38 billion (USD 340 million). The parties plan to develop the 16,993.8 square metre (182,920 square foot) parcel on Pingliang Street into a heritage preservation project incorporating a high-end, low-density residential community. A wholly owned subsidiary of Shui On holds 60% of the JV, with the remaining 40% held by state-owned developer Shanghai Yangshupu., November 2022: China’s largest lenders ready to pump over USD 162 Billion of credit into the country’s property developers, as Xi Jinping’s government retreats from tight controls on leverage in the real estate sector that had sparked a property crisis. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), China’s largest lender by assets, announced it was extending credit lines totalling RMB 655 Billion (USD 92 Billion) to 12 developers.. Key drivers for this market are: 4., Higher incomes support4.; Massive industry change. Potential restraints include: 4., High imbalance in population versus real estate index. Notable trends are: Growth of urbanization driving luxury residential real estate market.

A decade after the global financial crisis, the U.S. banking sector has not only resurrected, but also stands more resilient with an all-time high equity to assets ratio and return on average assets since 2000. In addition, the continuous decline in non-performing loans by the U.S. banks from more than *% during the financial crisis to the current level of *% is nothing but a testimony of good times. Thus, Statista’s forecast on the industry revenue surpassing the *** billion mark by 2021 comes as no surprise. Technology adoption is changing industry dynamics The global banking sector has been one of the most aggressive adopters of digital technologies, with investments in the Fintech industry having registered an almost ***% increase over the period 2013-2018. Notably, the U.S. stands next to China in terms of adopting fintech in banking and payments sector. Interestingly, banks have also begun teaming up with Fintech startups to improve and expand their service offerings. In retail banking, online lending platforms and mobile banking usage is on the rise. Robo advisors opened wealth management to mass market Fintech pioneers such as PayPal have transformed the way payments are made globally. At the same time, robo advisory services have transformed the wealth management segment and opened new business avenues to attract mass-market customers who have limited assets to invest.

From the Summer of 2007 until the end of 2009 (at least), the world was gripped by a series of economic crises commonly known as the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008) and the Great Recession (2008-2009). The financial crisis was triggered by the collapse of the U.S. housing market, which caused panic on Wall Street, the center of global finance in New York. Due to the outsized nature of the U.S. economy compared to other countries and particularly the centrality of U.S. finance for the world economy, the crisis spread quickly to other countries, affecting most regions across the globe. By 2009, global GDP growth was in negative territory, with international credit markets frozen, international trade contracting, and tens of millions of workers being made unemployed.

Global similarities, global differences

Since the 1980s, the world economy had entered a period of integration and globalization. This process particularly accelerated after the collapse of the Soviet Union ended the Cold War (1947-1991). This was the period of the 'Washington Consensus', whereby the U.S. and international institutions such as the World Bank and IMF promoted policies of economic liberalization across the globe. This increasing interdependence and openness to the global economy meant that when the crisis hit in 2007, many countries experienced the same issues. This is particularly evident in the synchronization of the recessions in the most advanced economies of the G7. Nevertheless, the aggregate global GDP number masks the important regional differences which occurred during the recession. While the more advanced economies of North America, Western Europe, and Japan were all hit hard, along with countries who are reliant on them for trade or finance, large emerging economies such as India and China bucked this trend. In particular, China's huge fiscal stimulus in 2008-2009 likely did much to prevent the global economy from sliding further into a depression. In 2009, while the United States' GDP sank to -2.6 percent, China's GDP, as reported by national authorities, was almost 10 percent.