In 2023, mortgage interest rates in Canada increased for all types of mortgages. The interest rate for fixed mortgage interest rates for five years and more doubled, from 2.38 percent to 5.52 percent between December 2021 and December 2023. The higher borrowing costs led to the housing market contracting in 2022 and corrections of the property prices across the country.

This table contains data described by the following dimensions (Not all combinations are available): Geography (1 items: Canada ...).

Rates have been trending downward in Canada for the last five years. The ebbs and flows are caused by changes in Canada’s bond yields (driven by Canadians economic developments and international rate movements, particularly U.S. rate fluctuations) and the overnight rate (which is set by the Bank of Canada). As of August 2022, there has been a 225 bps increase in the prime rate, since beginning of year 2022, from 2.45% to 4.70% as of Aug 24th 2022. The following are the historical conventional mortgage rates offered by the 6 major chartered banks in Canada in the past 20 years.

The Canadian home lending market, valued at approximately $X million in 2025 (assuming a reasonable market size based on available data and comparable markets), is experiencing robust growth, projected to maintain a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) exceeding 5.00% through 2033. This expansion is fueled by several key drivers. Increasing homeownership aspirations among Canadians, particularly among millennials and Gen Z, are significantly contributing to market demand. Favorable government policies aimed at supporting affordable housing, though potentially fluctuating, also play a vital role. Furthermore, the rise of innovative financial technologies and the increasing accessibility of online lending platforms are streamlining the borrowing process and broadening market reach. Competition is intense among a diverse range of lenders, including commercial banks (like Bank of Montreal and National Bank of Canada), financial institutions, credit unions (such as PenFinancial and First Ontario), and specialized mortgage providers (like True North Mortgage and IntelliMortgage). This competitive landscape fosters innovation and drives down costs for borrowers. However, the market faces challenges. Rising interest rates represent a significant restraint, impacting affordability and potentially slowing growth. Stringent lending regulations, designed to mitigate risk, can also restrict lending volume to some extent. Furthermore, economic uncertainties and fluctuations in housing prices can influence market sentiment and borrower confidence. Market segmentation shows considerable diversity, with fixed-rate loans maintaining a significant share, alongside growing demand for home equity lines of credit. The rise of online lending is transforming the sector, though offline channels remain important, particularly for complex mortgages or those requiring personalized guidance. The forecast period (2025-2033) presents both opportunities and risks for lenders, requiring strategic adaptation to prevailing economic and regulatory conditions. The continued growth of the market depends upon careful balance between affordable housing options and sustainable financial practices. Recent developments include: On March 15, 2022, First Ontario Credit Union announced its merger with Heritage savings & Credit union to offer the best in financial products and services., On February 09, 2022, Hello safe announced a new partnership with Hard bacon, a personal finance application used by more than 35,000 Canadians, this partnership is to leverage Hard bacon's portfolio of comparison tools.. Notable trends are: A Rise in Home Prices Boosting Home Equity Lending Market.

The Canadian home lending market, valued at approximately $XX million in 2025, is experiencing robust growth, projected to maintain a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) exceeding 5% through 2033. This expansion is fueled by several key factors. Firstly, a consistently growing population and increasing urbanization are driving demand for housing, particularly in major metropolitan areas. Secondly, favorable government policies aimed at supporting homeownership, while subject to change, have historically played a crucial role. Thirdly, the prevalence of low-interest rates (though subject to fluctuations) in recent years has made mortgages more accessible to a wider range of borrowers. Finally, the diverse range of lenders, including commercial banks, financial institutions, credit unions, and online lenders, fosters competition and innovation within the market, offering consumers more choice and potentially better rates. However, the market is not without its challenges. Rising interest rates, inflation, and potential economic downturns pose significant risks to the sustained growth trajectory. Furthermore, stricter lending regulations implemented to mitigate risks within the financial system could impact affordability and accessibility for some borrowers. Market segmentation reveals a preference for fixed-rate loans and a growing adoption of online lending platforms, alongside continued reliance on traditional brick-and-mortar institutions. Key players in the market, such as HSBC Bank Canada, Tangerine Direct Bank, and others, compete aggressively to capture market share through varied product offerings and service models. The market’s long-term prospects remain positive, albeit contingent on macroeconomic stability and regulatory shifts. Continued innovation and adaptation by lenders will be crucial in navigating the evolving landscape of the Canadian home lending market. This insightful report provides a deep dive into the dynamic Canadian home lending market, analyzing key trends, growth drivers, and challenges from 2019 to 2033. With a focus on the crucial year 2025 (base and estimated year), this comprehensive study offers invaluable insights for stakeholders across the industry. We leverage data from the historical period (2019-2024) to project the market's trajectory during the forecast period (2025-2033). Keywords: Canadian mortgage market, home equity loans Canada, mortgage rates Canada, online mortgage lenders Canada, Canadian real estate finance. Recent developments include: On March 15, 2022, First Ontario Credit Union announced its merger with Heritage savings & Credit union to offer the best in financial products and services., On February 09, 2022, Hello safe announced a new partnership with Hard bacon, a personal finance application used by more than 35,000 Canadians, this partnership is to leverage Hard bacon's portfolio of comparison tools.. Notable trends are: A Rise in Home Prices Boosting Home Equity Lending Market.

Mortgage interest rates worldwide varied greatly in 2024, from less than **** percent in many European countries, to as high as ** percent in Turkey. The average mortgage rate in a country depends on the central bank's base lending rate and macroeconomic indicators such as inflation and forecast economic growth. Since 2022, inflationary pressures have led to rapid increase in mortgage interest rates. Which are the leading mortgage markets? An easy way to estimate the importance of the mortgage sector in each country is by comparing household debt depth, or the ratio of the debt held by households compared to the county's GDP. In 2023, Switzerland, Australia, and Canada had some of the highest household debt to GDP ratios worldwide. While this indicator shows the size of the sector relative to the country’s economy, the value of mortgages outstanding allows to compare the market size in different countries. In Europe, for instance, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France were the largest mortgage markets by outstanding mortgage lending. Mortgage lending trends in the U.S. In the United States, new mortgage lending soared in 2021. This was largely due to the growth of new refinance loans that allow homeowners to renegotiate their mortgage terms and replace their existing loan with a more favorable one. Following the rise in interest rates, the mortgage market cooled, and refinance loans declined.

Canada's Real Estate Asset Management and Consulting industry comprises companies that provide auxiliary real estate services. Asset managers and consultants provide transactional services like escrow and tenant representation. They also generate data and analysis on local and regional markets and provide consulting and advisory services to property owners, managers, investors and developers. This includes advice on market valuation, property taxes and property management. Through the end of 2024, the industry has witnessed significant ebbs and flows, primarily fuelled by the collision of gaining vacancy rates and fluctuating interest rates. The Bank of Canada, riding the wave propelled by inflationary concerns, steeply increased the interest rates 10 times between March 2022 and July 2023, marking a 22-year high. As soaring interest rates inflated the loan acquisition costs for property buying or development, a steep dip in real estate investment activity and related asset management and consulting services was inevitable. Through the end of 2024, revenue will climb at a CAGR of 1.7% to $5.1 billion, including a 0.7% gain in 2024 alone, when profit will reach 24.0%. Real estate asset management and consulting revenue will gain at a CAGR of 1.0% to $5.4 billion through the end of 2029. As the Canadian urban landscape evolves, the rising rate of urbanization makes a compelling case for the growing demand for sophisticated residential, commercial and retail spaces. The aging demographic presents a unique prospect for developments in accessibility-featured housing, retirement communities, and healthcare facilities. Technological advancements in AI, Machine Learning and IoT will offer unprecedented efficiency in analysis, forecasting and valuation.

The Canadian property management industry witnessed robust growth in rental apartment supply in 2024, lifting national vacancy rates to 2.2%. The expansion in apartment supply was the most significant in over three decades. However, rental market conditions remained tight in crucial markets. The average rent for two-bedroom apartment units climbed 5.4% in 2024, highlighting sustained demand for apartment rentals. Affordability issues persisted since the completion of high-priced units bolstered the supply gain. The industry remained highly competitive, requiring agile adaptation strategies from property managers in response to slower rent growth, higher vacancies, evolving tenant preferences and affordability challenges. Nonetheless, revenue has grown at a CAGR of 0.2% to $9.8 billion through the end of 2025, including a 1.3% climb in 2025. Sustained demand for apartment rental will primarily drive revenue growth in 2025, as residential property management is the industry's largest market. The high cost of housing has continued to subvert the transition from renting to homeownership. Interest rate reductions by the Bank of Canada stimulated a 10.0% climb in home sales in 2024, yet homeownership is still out of reach for most Canadians. As Canadians stay longer in rentals, demand for residential property managers is expected to strengthen. On the other hand, the demand for commercial property management is mixed because of the complexity of commercial buildings, evolving workspace needs and the emergence of hybrid work models. Higher rental rates and lower vacancy rates have led to rising profit. The industry will enjoy growth through the end of 2030, with revenue rising at a CAGR of 1.4% to reach $10.5 billion in 2030. Continuous population growth and urbanization will significantly influence the industry's performance, increasing rental housing demand in major cities. Although interest rates have dropped, home ownership will remain elusive for most Canadians, which means Canadians will rent longer, sustaining demand for residential property management services. Technological advancements will fundamentally change the industry's operations, making Artificial Intelligence, the Internet of Things and automation key drivers of efficiency, sustainability and tenant-centric innovation. The next five years will also present regulatory changes that could add compliance burdens and influence market dynamics. Canadian property management will evolve and be characterized by data-driven portfolio management, tenant retention strategies, technological adoption and compliance with stricter environmental regulations and tenant protection measures.

Investment pouring into residential housing construction has benefited apartment and condominium construction activity in Canada in recent years. Immigration into Canada has spurred record population growth, fueling a deepening housing crisis. In major urban centres, demand for housing units has exceeded the supply for years, inciting investment in retrofits and multistory apartment dwellings. Apartment contractors have been vital in filling the gaps in housing, with a low-interest environment and chronically low vacancy rates enticing investors. The imbalance between housing supply and demand kept investors bullish on apartments through COVID-19 pandemic uncertainty, supporting growth. Still, the pandemic's disruption to global supply chains didn't spare contractors, with equipment and material costs reaching unprecedented highs. Particularly through 2021 and 2022, materials price and wage inflation pushed up contractors rates, contributing to industry revenue growth. While the year following saw slower building construction price inflation, high demand has kept the price level from falling. In all, industry-wide revenue has been rising at an expected CAGR of 4.2% over the past five years, totaling an estimated $62.3 billion in 2025, when revenue will rise an expected 2.6%. Beginning in 2022, the Bank of Canada steadily raised or maintained interest rates to combat inflation. Higher interest rates made developers more hesitant to invest in projects, driving up costs for builders and impeding profit. In 2024, however, the Bank of Canada began cutting interest rates, continuing the policy into 2025. Contractors will navigate a challenging landscape over the coming years. While interest rates will continue to fall, they will not reach pandemic lows. Labour shortages and elevated costs will also strain contractors' capacity. These challenges will face the broader construction sector, pushing federal and provincial governments to introduce infrastructure and workforce development programs. Over the next five years, apartment and condominium construction revenue is expected to expand at a CAGR of 1.9% to reach $68.4 billion in 2030.

Following the drastic increase directly after the COVID-19 pandemic, the delinquency rate started to gradually decline, falling below *** percent in the second quarter of 2023. In the second half of 2023, the delinquency rate picked up, but remained stable throughout 2024. In the first quarter of 2025, **** percent of mortgage loans were delinquent. That was significantly lower than the **** percent during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 or the peak of *** percent during the subprime mortgage crisis of 2007-2010. What does the mortgage delinquency rate tell us? The mortgage delinquency rate is the share of the total number of mortgaged home loans in the U.S. where payment is overdue by 30 days or more. Many borrowers eventually manage to service their loan, though, as indicated by the markedly lower foreclosure rates. Total home mortgage debt in the U.S. stood at almost ** trillion U.S. dollars in 2024. Not all mortgage loans are made equal ‘Subprime’ loans, being targeted at high-risk borrowers and generally coupled with higher interest rates to compensate for the risk. These loans have far higher delinquency rates than conventional loans. Defaulting on such loans was one of the triggers for the 2007-2010 financial crisis, with subprime delinquency rates reaching almost ** percent around this time. These higher delinquency rates translate into higher foreclosure rates, which peaked at just under ** percent of all subprime mortgages in 2011.

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Home Equity Lending Market Size 2025-2029

The home equity lending market size is forecast to increase by USD 48.16 billion, at a CAGR of 4.7% between 2024 and 2029.

The market is experiencing significant growth, fueled primarily by the massive increase in home prices and the resulting rise in residential properties with substantial equity. This trend presents a lucrative opportunity for lenders, as homeowners with substantial equity can borrow against their homes to fund various expenses, from home improvements to debt consolidation. However, this market also faces challenges. Lengthy procedures and complex regulatory requirements can hinder the growth of home equity lending, making it essential for lenders to streamline their processes and ensure compliance with evolving regulations.
Additionally, economic uncertainty and potential interest rate fluctuations may impact borrower demand, requiring lenders to adapt their strategies to remain competitive. To capitalize on market opportunities and navigate challenges effectively, lenders must focus on enhancing the borrower experience, leveraging technology to streamline processes, and maintaining a strong regulatory compliance framework.

What will be the Size of the Home Equity Lending Market during the forecast period?

Explore in-depth regional segment analysis with market size data - historical 2019-2023 and forecasts 2025-2029 - in the full report.
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The market continues to evolve, shaped by various economic and market dynamics. Fair lending practices remain a crucial aspect, with entities ensuring borrowers' creditworthiness through rigorous risk assessments. Economic conditions, employment history, and credit score are integral components of this evaluation. Mortgage insurance (PMIs) and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are employed to mitigate risk in the event of default. Verification of income, property value, and consumer protection are also essential elements in the home equity lending process. Housing prices, Homeowners Insurance, and property value are assessed to determine the loan-to-value ratio (LTV) and interest rate risk. Prepayment penalties, closing costs, and loan term are factors that influence borrowers' financial planning and decision-making.

The regulatory environment plays a significant role in shaping market activities. Consumer confidence, financial literacy, and foreclosure prevention initiatives are key areas of focus. real estate market volatility and mortgage rates impact the demand for home equity loans, with cash-out refinancing and debt consolidation being popular applications. Amortization schedules, mortgage broker involvement, and escrow accounts are essential components of the loan origination process. Market volatility and housing market trends continue to unfold, requiring ongoing risk assessment and adaptation.

How is this Home Equity Lending Industry segmented?

The home equity lending industry research report provides comprehensive data (region-wise segment analysis), with forecasts and estimates in 'USD million' for the period 2025-2029, as well as historical data from 2019-2023 for the following segments.

Source

  Mortgage and credit union
  Commercial banks
  Others


Distribution Channel

  Offline
  Online


Purpose

  Home Improvement
  Debt Consolidation
  Investment


Loan Type

  Fixed-Rate
  Variable-Rate


Geography

  North America

    US
    Mexico


  Europe

    France
    Germany
    Italy
    UK


  Middle East and Africa

    UAE


  APAC

    Australia
    China
    India
    Japan
    South Korea


  South America

    Brazil


  Rest of World (ROW)

By Source Insights

The mortgage and credit union segment is estimated to witness significant growth during the forecast period.

In the realm of home equity lending, mortgage and credit unions emerge as trusted partners for consumers. These financial institutions offer various services beyond home loans, including deposit management, checking and savings accounts, and credit and debit cards. By choosing a mortgage or credit union for home equity lending, consumers gain access to human advisors who can guide them through the intricacies of finance. Mortgage and credit unions provide competitive rates on home equity loans, making them an attractive option. Consumer protection is a priority, with fair lending practices and rigorous risk assessment ensuring creditworthiness. Economic conditions, employment history, and credit score are all taken into account during the loan origination process.

Home equity loans can be used for various purposes, such as home improvement projects, debt consolidation, or cash-out refinancing. Consumer confidence plays a role in loan origination, with interest rates influenced by market volatility and economic conditions. Fixed-rate and adjustable-rate loans are available, each with its a

Homebuilders have endured considerable volatility. Immigration into Canada has translated into unprecedented population growth, driving a deepening housing crisis. New housing starts haven't kept up with the population growth, making homebuilders more critical than ever to meet housing needs. Home shortages and changes in buying behaviour supported homebuilders during the COVID-19 pandemic. Still, the pandemic's disruption to global supply chains didn't spare contractors, with equipment and material costs reaching unprecedented highs. Interest rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 slowed new relevant housing construction, spurring apartment building construction as consumers increasingly sought out renting. Also, the First Time Homebuyer Incentive, which seemed like a potential boon to homebuilders, largely lacked success and was repealed. Industry-wide revenue has been declining at a CAGR of 0.1% over the past five years – totaling an estimated $29.7 billion in 2025 – when revenue will climb an estimated 2.7%. The Bank of Canada raising rates in 2022 and 2023 led to a massive slowdown for homebuilders, even as the Canadian government tried to ramp up the number of housing units. Higher interest rates make developers cautious about new projects, drive up construction costs for builders and push potential home buyers out of the market. The Bank of Canada has decreased rates in 2024 and 2025 for the first time since 2022, potentially providing a boost to homebuilders. Labour shortages for home builders have hiked wage costs and hindered profit. Homebuilders will enjoy solid growth over the next five years. Interest rate cuts and low housing supply will spur downstream homebuying activity. Still, labour shortages and material costs will continue to strain contractors' capacity. Such challenges will be complex for the broader construction sector, allowing federal and provincial governments to introduce programs focusing on workforce development and tech adoption. Government initiatives like the First-Time Home Buyers’ Tax Credit, the First Home Savings Account (FHSA) and the Home Buyers Plan (HBP) will support homebuilding. Homebuilders' revenue is forecast to expand at a CAGR of 2.0% to $32.8 billion through the end of 2030.

Executive summary As Canada’s federal deposit insurer and resolution authority, CDIC operates in a rapidly changing and complex environment. Canada’s economy is facing global and domestic headwinds, such as tighter monetary policy, higher interest rates, geo-political tensions, and lower housing affordability. Canadian businesses continue to navigate an uncertain operating environment with elevated input and borrowing costs. People in Canada are feeling the impacts every day. Overall, CDIC members are in stable financial condition. Although the 2023 bank failures in the United States and Switzerland were contained to those countries, these events underscored the importance of continued vigilance in regulatory oversight and supervision. They also reaffirmed the value of resolution planning and testing so CDIC can respond quickly to a variety of crisis scenarios and possible shocks to financial system stability. Moreover, they highlighted the importance of promoting public awareness of deposit insurance, which protects depositors and contributes to financial stability. Every year, new financial products, services, providers, and transaction channels are launched. This presents new savings opportunities, but also new risks to depositors regarding deposit protection and coverage. In response, CDIC continues to innovate to protect financial futures in Canada. For example, CDIC is continuing its payout modernization project which aims to reimburse depositors more conveniently, quickly, and securely in the event of a member failure. CDIC is also adapting to an evolving workplace environment. All organizations are facing increasing technological and cultural hanges, with continued competition for talent. CDIC will continue to advance its workforce strategies to prioritize attracting and retaining top talent, with a focus on ensuring its employees are representative of Canada’s diverse population. The Corporation will continue refining its approach to hybrid work, adapting technology, operations, and skills training across the organization to continue meeting the demands of the future in service of its mandate. CDIC will focus on three strategic objectives for the 2024/2025 to 2028/2029 planning period, anchored to the Corporation’s mandate as federal deposit insurer and resolution authority: 1 — Resolution Readiness Resolution readiness involves having the necessary people, data, processes, tools, systems, and financial capacity to resolve a member failure, if necessary. CDIC’s role among Canada’s financial sector oversight agencies intensifies during times of economic hardship or uncertainty. CDIC protects depositors and contributes to financial stability by being resolution ready. CDIC will continue to strengthen its capacity for the early identification and surveillance of risks. It will also identify and assess resolution tools, policies, and mechanisms to strengthen the current deposit insurance and resolution framework and improve resolution capacity and capabilities through training and testing. In 2024/2025, CDIC will remain focused on its new deposit insurance and payout system, a major transformational initiative that began in 2021. The project aims to enable depositors to access their funds more rapidly and securely in the event of a member failure. It will also enable CDIC to support new digital channels for communicating securely with depositors, member institutions, and deposit brokers. In 2024/2025, CDIC will also continue working on the tri-agency Data Collection Modernization Initiative, alongside the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) and the Bank of Canada. This will ensure CDIC has the necessary level of regulatory data to: support risk-intelligent decision-making abilities, proactively respond to changes in Canada’s risk environment, and align needs to support the respective mandates of participating agencies. 2 — Depositor Trust and Confidence Reinforcing people’s confidence in the safety of their deposits is essential to protecting financial futures in Canada. CDIC is undertaking a Deposit Insurance Study to assess the scope and coverage of current deposit protection to ensure that it continues to meet depositors’ needs into the future. Results will be shared with the Minister of Finance for policy consideration. Given the strong linkage between public awareness of deposit protection and the stability of the financial system, the Corporation will continue to focus on the level of people’s awareness of CDIC, its membership and coverage. 3 — Organizational Strength Organizational strength involves preparing for, and responding to, internal and external factors that can impact CDIC’s people, culture, and technologies. CDIC is committed to having a workforce that reflects the depositors it serves and being an employer of choice. CDIC is focused on promoting an inclusive culture, and exceeding workforce representation statistics. CDIC will again seek to achieve the Great Place to Work™ certification in 2024/2025. CDIC achieves its vision through its people and strong culture. CDIC will enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of its enterprise and corporate services through targeted technology investment, improved operational resiliency and augmented skills-training to ensure the Corporation can continue to fulfill its mandate. From a financial perspective, CDIC’s operating budget will be $90.3 million in fiscal year 2024/2025, and its capital budget will be $1.2 million. CDIC maintains (ex ante) funding to cover possible deposit insurance losses. The amount of such funding is represented by the aggregate of CDIC’s retained earnings and the provision for insurance losses. CDIC’s ex ante fund was $8.6 billion (73 basis points of insured deposits) as at September 30, 2023. The Corporate Plan anticipates and responds to the evolving operating environment and risks facing CDIC. It also supports the Corporation’s ability to achieve its mandate, while maintaining the public’s trust and confidence that their eligible deposits are protected.

The statistic shows the average inflation rate in Canada from 1987 to 2024, with projections up until 2030. The inflation rate is calculated using the price increase of a defined product basket. This product basket contains products and services, on which the average consumer spends money throughout the year. They include expenses for groceries, clothes, rent, power, telecommunications, recreational activities and raw materials (e.g. gas, oil), as well as federal fees and taxes. In 2022, the average inflation rate in Canada was approximately 6.8 percent compared to the previous year. For comparison, inflation in India amounted to 5.56 percent that same year. Inflation in Canada In general, the inflation rate in Canada follows a global trend of decreasing inflation rates since 2011, with the lowest slump expected to occur during 2015, but forecasts show an increase over the following few years. Additionally, Canada's inflation rate is in quite good shape compared to the rest of the world. While oil and gas prices have dropped in Canada much like they have around the world, food and housing prices in Canada have been increasing. This has helped to offset some of the impact of dropping oil and gas prices and the effect this has had on Canada´s inflation rate. The annual consumer price index of food and non-alcoholic beverages in Canada has been steadily increasing over the last decade. The same is true for housing and other price indexes for the country. In general there is some confidence that the inflation rate will not stay this low for long, it is expected to return to a comfortable 2 percent by 2017 if estimates are correct.

Domestic demand for general-purpose machinery has increased overall during the current period, driven by a combination of economic and logistics factors. While manufacturers faced a sales decline in the first half of 2024, a rebound is anticipated in the second half as the Bank of Canada continues to lower interest rates, encouraging more capital investments. Despite these positive trends, input prices for key raw materials such as steel, aluminum and plastics remain elevated, affecting production costs and machinery prices, though a return to historical price levels is expected to benefit profit in 2024. Overall, the industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.8% to reach $5.4 billion by 2024, including a projected 0.6% growth in 2024 alone. Exports, accounting for nearly 70% of industry revenue, have been a significant growth driver, with the United States being a major export destination. US fiscal and monetary policies, aimed at mitigating the pandemic's economic effects, impacted the market in 2020 but have since fueled demand through infrastructure projects like the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. This act led to increased demand for construction-focused equipment from the US. The ongoing interplay of domestic recovery, input cost stabilization and foreign demand growth is shaping ongoing industry developments. The industry is poised for stable growth, projected at a 2.2% CAGR to reach $6.0 billion by 2029, supported by robust economic strategies and policies. The Canadian government's increased focus on population growth via immigration and the Bank of Canada's interest rate cuts from June 2024 will stimulate housing, transportation and consumer goods demand by making borrowing more affordable and encouraging investment. Additionally, strong US trade demand, buoyed by the USMCA and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, will bolster machinery exports.

February sales in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) were down substantially from the pre-rate hike levels of early 2022. However, the number of new listings also dropped substantially year-over-year. The result was that the average selling price and MLS® HPI continued to level off after trending lower through the spring and summer of last year. “It has been almost a year since the Bank of Canada started raising interest rates. Home prices have dropped over the last year from the record peak in February 2022, mitigating the impact of higher borrowing costs. Many homebuyers have also decided to purchase a lower priced home to help offset higher borrowing costs. The share of home purchases below one million dollars is up substantially compared to this time last year,” said Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) President Paul Baron. GTA REALTORS® reported 4,783 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in February 2023 – down 47 per cent compared to February 2022, the last full month before the onset of interest rate hikes. The number of new listings entered into the system was down by a similar annual rate of 40.9 per cent to 8,367. “New listings continued to drop year-over-year in the GTA. Recently released Ipsos polling suggests buying intentions have picked up for 2023. This increased demand will run up against a constrained supply of listings and lead to increased competition between buyers. This will eventually lead to renewed price growth in many segments of the market, especially those catering to first-time buyers facing increased rental costs,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer. The average selling price for February 2023 was $1,095,617 – down 17.9 per cent compared to February 2022. Some of this decline is attributable to the fact that the share of sales below $1,000,000 was 57 per cent in February 2023 versus only 38 per cent a year earlier. On a monthly basis, the average price followed the regular seasonal trend, increasing relative to January 2023. The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was down year-over-year by a similar annual rate of 17.7 per cent, but was also up on a monthly basis. “As we move toward a June mayoral by-election in Toronto, housing supply will once again be front and centre in the policy debate. New and innovative solutions, including the City of Toronto’s initiative to allow duplexes, triplexes and fourplexes in all neighbourhoods citywide, need to come to fruition if we are to achieve an adequate and diverse housing supply that will support record population growth in the years to come,” said TRREB Chief Executive Officer John DiMichele.

Although the TV and Appliance Wholesalers industry in Canada has long benefited from consistent spending by downstream markets, its position has continued to deteriorate as more manufacturers bypass middlemen and online transactions exert downward pressure. During the pandemic, an uptick in housing starts and the rising value of residential construction paved the way for a jump in appliance sales, driving higher sales volumes for wholesalers. But, rising interest rates and high inflation quickly undermined downstream retail markets as consumers pulled back, cutting orders for TV and appliance wholesalers. With the industry’s structural challenges adding to these challenges, revenue is forecast to contract at a CAGR of 4.1% over the past five years. In 2025, the industry is expected to see revenue drop an additional 1.1% to reach $12.8 billion. Upstream manufacturers are increasingly internalizing wholesaling operations, placing pressure on traditional wholesalers. By controlling distribution channels, manufacturers can capture revenue that would typically go to wholesalers, strengthening their own bottom line. Traditional wholesalers struggle to compete on price with these vertically integrated firms, causing many to leave the industry altogether. While this will continue to erode the industry’s position, wholesalers have offered a fresh approach to inventory management by using virtual warehouses. Moving forward, appliance wholesalers are likely to embrace the transformative potential of artificial intelligence (AI) and other technological advancements. These tools can help build more resilient supply chains, enabling wholesalers to maintain their competitive edge in a challenging market environment. The industry is expected to witness a continued exit of traditional wholesalers as manufacturers develop their own distribution networks. Despite this, TV and appliance distributors stand to gain from robust construction trends, especially as the Bank of Canada trims interest rates, which should fuel housing and nonresidential developments. However, persistent slowdowns in consumer spending and the looming risk of inflation may lead to tighter budgets, particularly affecting high-margin luxury models. The industry is expected to see revenue decline at a CAGR of 2.2% $9.8 billion over the five years to 2030.

The Landscape Services industry has navigated a volatile economic terrain, but has emerged as a net winner. After a downturn due to sluggish spending by commercial real estate clients and fierce competition for residential customers' disposable income, landscapers have reaped benefits from the burgeoning residential housing market. Residential markets have expanded despite the Bank of Canada's aggressive rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation. Recent rate cuts have further fueled spending on landscaping services, both from new housing developments and upgrades to existing homes. As a result, industry revenue is forecast to rise at a CAGR of 2.1% over the past five years to $14.6 billion, including growth of 1.9% in 2025 alone. Despite growth, landscapers have been hard hit by inflationary pressures, with the cost of equipment, fuel, materials and wages continuing to rise. The price of fertilizer, a key input for landscapers, who use it to treat lawns and keep other plants healthy and growing strongly, soared by more than 30.0% in 2021 and more than 50.0% 2022. Price increases this intense have forced landscapers to pass on costs to their customers, with more than three-quarters of landscapers raising prices in 2023 and 2024. While profit margins remain higher in 2025 than they were in 2020, they have been pressured by rising prices as landscapers have been weary about raising prices for fear of losing sales to competitors. Landscaping services will continue to grow steadily in the coming years as clients increasingly focus on sustainable designs in response to climate change. With the economy also expected to expand, commercial construction will look to incorporate extensive green spaces, while residential customers will remain a bedrock of the industry, with home construction and renovation projects benefiting from further interest rate cuts. As a result, industry revenue will increase at a CAGR of 1.9% to $16.1 billion over the five years to 2030.

Tool and hardware wholesaling's performance largely hinges on domestic manufacturing and construction output, though some wholesalers near the border also serve markets in the United States. Canadian wholesalers benefited greatly in 2020 and 2021 as near-zero interest rates and higher disposable income led to a drastic jump in housing starts. Worsening macroeconomic factors, including heightened economic uncertainty, rising inflationary pressures and higher interest rates, negatively impacted distributors, harming demand from the nonresidential and manufacturing sectors. However, these losses failed to reverse the gains from the residential sector. These trends have caused revenue to grow at an estimated CAGR of 5.9% to $23.2 billion through the end of 2024, including a 1.2% dip that year alone. Wholesale bypassing trends are becoming more common among upstream manufacturers and downstream buyers as both aim to become more profitable. Upstream manufacturers face significant competition from foreign producers. These imports are generally produced by foreign manufacturers with a minimal domestic presence and distributed through domestic wholesalers. As a result, wholesalers carrying imported products can offer competitively priced products, partially protecting them from wholesale bypass trends. Despite this, distributors have also been impacted by fluctuating input prices, including steel and plastic, driving purchase costs higher and placing downward pressure on profit. Demand from wholesalers will continue to grow over the upcoming years, although at a significantly slower rate. As the Canadian economy recovers, demand for manufactured products and construction projects will rise. Although downstream manufacturers will continue to be threatened by significant import penetration, industrial capacity utilization will rise, creating a need for wholesalers. Similarly, the Bank of Canada's lowering of interest rates will push down long-term borrowing costs and support construction and manufacturing activity. These trends will cause revenue to grow at an estimated CAGR of 1.2% through 2029.