Policy interest rates in the U.S. and Europe are forecasted to decrease gradually between 2024 and 2027, following exceptional increases triggered by soaring inflation between 2021 and 2023. The U.S. federal funds rate stood at **** percent at the end of 2023, the European Central Bank deposit rate at **** percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate at **** percent. With inflationary pressures stabilizing, policy interest rates are forecast to decrease in each observed region. The U.S. federal funds rate is expected to decrease to *** percent, the ECB refi rate to **** percent, the Bank of England bank rate to **** percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate to **** percent by 2025. An interesting aspect to note is the impact of these interest rate changes on various economic factors such as growth, employment, and inflation. The impact of central bank policy rates The U.S. federal funds effective rate, crucial in determining the interest rate paid by depository institutions, experienced drastic changes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The subsequent slight changes in the effective rate reflected the efforts to stimulate the economy and manage economic factors such as inflation. Such fluctuations in the federal funds rate have had a significant impact on the overall economy. The European Central Bank's decision to cut its fixed interest rate in June 2024 for the first time since 2016 marked a significant shift in attitude towards economic conditions. The reasons behind the fluctuations in the ECB's interest rate reflect its mandate to ensure price stability and manage inflation, shedding light on the complex interplay between interest rates and economic factors. Inflation and real interest rates The relationship between inflation and interest rates is critical in understanding the actions of central banks. Central banks' efforts to manage inflation through interest rate adjustments reveal the intricate balance between economic growth and inflation. Additionally, the concept of real interest rates, adjusted for inflation, provides valuable insights into the impact of inflation on the economy.

The benchmark interest rate in the United Kingdom was last recorded at 4 percent. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Based on an "illustrative scenario" in which the United Kingdom (UK) moves to a comprehensive free trade agreement with the European Union (EU) on the 1st of January 2021, this forecast shows the expected annual average bank base interest rate in response to the current Covid-19 pandemic. In a bid to minimize the economic effects of the Covid-19 virus, on the 19th of March 2020 the Bank of England cut the official bank base rate to a record low of 0.1 percent. This historic low came just one week after the Bank of England cut rates from 0.75 percent to 0.25 percent in a bid to prevent mass job cuts in the United Kingdom. In the current forecast scenario, bank interest rates are set to stay between 0.1 percent and 0.2 percent up to 2022.

August 2024 marked a significant shift in the UK's monetary policy, as it saw the first reduction in the official bank base interest rate since August 2023. This change came after a period of consistent rate hikes that began in late 2021. In a bid to minimize the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bank of England cut the official bank base rate in March 2020 to a record low of *** percent. This historic low came just one week after the Bank of England cut rates from **** percent to **** percent in a bid to prevent mass job cuts in the United Kingdom. It remained at *** percent until December 2021 and was increased to one percent in May 2022 and to **** percent in October 2022. After that, the bank rate increased almost on a monthly basis, reaching **** percent in August 2023. It wasn't until August 2024 that the first rate decrease since the previous year occurred, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy. Why do central banks adjust interest rates? Central banks, including the Bank of England, adjust interest rates to manage economic stability and control inflation. Their strategies involve a delicate balance between two main approaches. When central banks raise interest rates, their goal is to cool down an overheated economy. Higher rates curb excessive spending and borrowing, which helps to prevent runaway inflation. This approach is typically used when the economy is growing too quickly or when inflation is rising above desired levels. Conversely, when central banks lower interest rates, they aim to encourage borrowing and investment. This strategy is employed to stimulate economic growth during periods of slowdown or recession. Lower rates make it cheaper for businesses and individuals to borrow money, which can lead to increased spending and investment. This dual approach allows central banks to maintain a balance between promoting growth and controlling inflation, ensuring long-term economic stability. Additionally, adjusting interest rates can influence currency values, impacting international trade and investment flows, further underscoring their critical role in a nation's economic health. Recent interest rate trends Between 2021 and 2025, most advanced and emerging economies experienced a period of regular interest rate hikes. This trend was driven by several factors, including persistent supply chain disruptions, high energy prices, and robust demand pressures. These elements combined to create significant inflationary trends, prompting central banks to raise rates to temper spending and borrowing. However, in 2024, a shift began to occur in global monetary policy. The European Central Bank (ECB) was among the first major central banks to reverse this trend by cutting interest rates. This move signaled a change in approach aimed at addressing growing economic slowdowns and supporting growth.

Key information about United Kingdom Long Term Interest Rate

• United Kingdom Long Term Interest Rate: Month End: United Kingdom: Government Bond Yield: 10 Years was reported at 4.48 % pa in Oct 2025, compared with 4.76 % pa in the previous month.
• UK Long Term Interest Rate data is updated monthly, available from Jan 1979 to Oct 2025.
• The data reached an all-time high of 15.44 % pa in Sep 1981 and a record low of 0.13 % pa in Jul 2020.
• Long Term Interest Rate is reported by reported by CEIC Data.

• In the latest reports, UK Short Term Interest Rate: Month End: ICE LIBOR: 3 Months was reported at 0.09 % pa in Apr 2021.
• The cash rate (Policy Rate: Month End: Base Rate) was set at 4.00 % pa in Nov 2025.
• UK Exchange Rate against USD averaged 0.75 (USD/GBP) in Oct 2025.

This statistic shows the forecasted Bank Rate in the United Kingdom (UK) from first quarter 2017 to first quarter 2024. The rate at which the Bank of England can loan money to commercial banks is set to increase gradually over this period, at a net increase of *** percentage points.

In September 2025, global inflation rates and central bank interest rates showed significant variation across major economies. Most economies initiated interest rate cuts from mid-2024 due to declining inflationary pressures. The U.S., UK, and EU central banks followed a consistent pattern of regular rate reductions throughout late 2024. In September 2025, Russia maintained the highest interest rate at 17 percent, while Japan retained the lowest at 0.5 percent. Varied inflation rates across major economies The inflation landscape varies considerably among major economies. China had the lowest inflation rate at -0.3 percent in September 2025. In contrast, Russia maintained a high inflation rate of 8 percent. These figures align with broader trends observed in early 2025, where China had the lowest inflation rate among major developed and emerging economies, while Russia's rate remained the highest. Central bank responses and economic indicators Central banks globally implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-23 to combat inflation. The European Central Bank exemplified this trend, raising rates from 0 percent in January 2022 to 4.5 percent by September 2023. A coordinated shift among major central banks began in mid-2024, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting further cuts through 2025 and 2026.

This dataset provides values for INTEREST RATE reported in several countries. The data includes current values, previous releases, historical highs and record lows, release frequency, reported unit and currency.

Mortgage rates surged at an unprecedented pace in 2022, with the average 10-year fixed rate doubling between March and December of that year. In response to mounting inflation, the Bank of England implemented a series of rate hikes, pushing borrowing costs steadily higher. By October 2025, the average 10-year fixed mortgage rate stood at **** percent. As financing becomes more expensive, housing demand has cooled, weighing on market sentiment and slowing house price growth. How have the mortgage hikes affected the market? After surging in 2021, the number of residential properties sold fell significantly in 2023, dipping to just above *** million transactions. This contraction in activity also dampened mortgage lending. Between the first quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, the value of new mortgage loans declined year-on-year for five consecutive quarters. Even as rates eased modestly in 2024 and housing activity picked up slightly, volumes remained well below the highs recorded in 2021. How are higher mortgages impacting homebuyers? For homeowners, the impact is being felt most acutely as fixed-rate deals expire. Mortgage terms in the UK typically range from two to ten years, and many borrowers who locked in historically low rates are now facing significantly higher repayments when refinancing. By the end of 2026, an estimated five million homeowners will see their mortgage deals expire. Roughly two million of these loans are projected to experience a monthly payment increase of up to *** British pounds by 2026, putting additional pressure on household budgets and constraining affordability across the market.

Between January 2018 and September 2025, the United Kingdom's consumer price inflation rate showed notable volatility. The rate hit its lowest point at *** percent in August 2020 and peaked at *** percent in October 2022. By September 2025, inflation had moderated to *** percent, indicating a gradual increase in inflation rates in the preceding months. The Bank of England's interest rate policy closely tracked these inflationary trends. Rates remained low at -* percent until April 2020, when they were reduced to *** percent in response to economic challenges. A series of rate increases followed, reaching a peak of **** percent from August 2023 to July 2024. The central bank then initiated rate cuts in August and November 2024, lowering the rate to **** percent, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy. In February 2025, the Bank of England implemented another rate cut, setting the bank rate at *** percent, which was further reduced to **** percent in May 2025 and remained at * percent as of September 2025. Global context of inflation and interest rates The UK's experience reflects a broader international trend of rising inflation and subsequent central bank responses. From January 2022 to July 2024, advanced and emerging economies alike increased their policy rates to counter inflationary pressures. However, a shift began in late 2024, with many countries, including the UK, starting to lower rates. This change suggests a potential new phase in the global economic cycle and monetary policy approach. Comparison with other major economies The UK's monetary policy decisions align closely with those of other major economies. The United States, for instance, saw its federal funds rate peak at **** percent in August 2023, mirroring the UK's rate trajectory. Similarly, central bank rates in the EU all increased drastically between 2022 and 2024. These synchronized movements reflect the global nature of inflationary pressures and the coordinated efforts of central banks to maintain economic stability. As with the UK, both the U.S. and EU began considering rate cuts in late 2024, signaling a potential shift in the global economic landscape.

Revenue is forecast to expand at a compound annual rate of 2.1% over the five years through 2025-26 to £404.7 million. The test drilling and boring industry’s revenue tends to run in line with economic and investment trends in the wider construction sector. In recent years, stubborn inflation and constrained budgets have led to new construction output contracting, resulting in limited tender opportunities, which has seen industry revenue slow. Larger companies are more resilient to economic downturns as they are likely to secure public and civil work, which is less susceptible to economic conditions. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, recovery was sluggish due to the supply chain disruptions. These disruptions, initially caused by the pandemic, were exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, resulting in persistent inflation that has plagued the industry’s operating costs. Construction material prices have trended upwards amid inflationary pressures, hindering test drilling and boring contractors’ average profit margin. Inflation prompted the Bank of England to hike the interest rate, cooling the housing market and reducing homeowners’ equity levels, which, in turn, dampened investment opportunities. In 2024-25, economic conditions are slowly stabilising as inflation trends downward, leading to the BoE reducing the interest rate for the first time since 2020. However, prices have continued to face upward pressures due to ongoing supply chain disruptions in 2025-26. While the BoE has cut the interest rate to 4% in August 2025, it remains high, which suppresses investment opportunities in the construction sector, particularly in the residential and commercial markets. Despite this uncertainty, robust government investment in infrastructure is supporting test drilling and boring revenue prospects. In 2025-26, revenue growth is forecast to climb by 2.5%. Over the five years through 2030-31, revenue is forecast to expand at a compound annual rate of 3.6% to £482.9 million. Significant infrastructure investments in the UK, particularly in transport network expansions, will generate revenue for test drilling and boring contractors, despite economic uncertainties. The government's target of adding 1.5 million new homes by 2029 will drive demand for these services. Technological advancements in the industry are set to be increasingly integrated into services to enhance precision and efficiency.

In June 2024, the European Central Bank (ECB) began reducing its fixed interest rate for the first time since 2016, implementing a series of cuts. The rate decreased from 4.5 percent to 3.15 percent by year-end: a 0.25 percentage point cut in June, followed by additional reductions in September, October, and December. The central bank implemented other cuts in the first half of 2025, setting the rate at 2.15 percent in June 2025. This marked a significant shift from the previous rate hike cycle, which began in July 2022 when the ECB raised rates to 0.5 percent and subsequently increased them almost monthly, reaching 4.5 percent by December 2023 - the highest level since the 2007-2008 global financial crisis. How does this ensure liquidity? Banks typically hold only a fraction of their capital in cash, measured by metrics like the Tier 1 capital ratio. Since this ratio is low, banks prefer to allocate most of their capital to revenue-generating loans. When their cash reserves fall too low, banks borrow from the ECB to cover short-term liquidity needs. On the other hand, commercial banks can also deposit excess funds with the ECB at a lower interest rate. Reasons for fluctuations
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability. The Euro area inflation rate is, in theory, the key indicator guiding the ECB's actions. When the fixed interest rate is lower, commercial banks are more likely to borrow from the ECB, increasing the money supply and, in turn, driving inflation higher. When inflation rises, the ECB increases the fixed interest rate, which slows borrowing and helps to reduce inflation.

Mortgage interest rates in Europe soared in 2022 and remained elevated in the following two years. In many countries, this resulted in mortgage interest rates across the region more than doubling. In the first quarter of 2025, the average mortgage interest rate in the UK stood at **** percent. Spain had the lowest rate, at **** percent, while Poland had the highest, at *** percent. Why did mortgage interest rates increase? Mortgage rates have risen as a result of the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate increase. The ECB increased its interest rates to tackle inflation. As inflation calms, the ECB is expected to cut rates, which allows mortgage lenders to reduce mortgage interest rates. What is the impact of interest rates on home buying? Lower interest rates make taking out a housing loan more affordable, and thus, encourage home buying. That can be seen in many countries across Europe: In France, the number of residential properties sold rose in the years leading up to 2021, and fell as interest rates increased. The number of houses sold in the UK followed a similar trend.

United Kingdom Loan Market was valued at USD 267.23 Billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 521.67 Billion by 2030 with a CAGR of 8.26%.

In 2025, the average annual inflation rate for the United Kingdom is expected to 3.5 percent, with the average rate for 2026 predicted to fall to 2.5 percent. Inflation in the UK increased at a faster rate than expected, with the rate revised upwards from an earlier prediction of 3.2 percent. Like many countries, the UK has only recently recovered from a period of elevated inflation, which saw the CPI rate reach 9.1 percent in 2022, and 7.3 percent in 2023. Despite the recent uptick in 2025, the inflation rate is expected to fall to 2.5 percent in 2026, and to two percent between 2027 and 2029. UK inflation crisis Between 2021 and 2023, inflation surged in the UK, reaching a 41-year-high of 11.1 percent in October 2022. Although inflation fell to more usual levels by 2024, prices in the UK had already increased by over 20 percent relative to the start of the crisis. The two main drivers of price increases during this time were food and energy inflation, two of the main spending areas of UK households. Although food and energy prices came down quite sharply in 2023, underlying core inflation, which measures prices rises without food and energy, remained slightly above the headline inflation rate throughout 2024, suggesting some aspects of inflation had become embedded in the UK economy. Inflation rises across in the world in 2022 The UK was not alone in suffering from runaway inflation over the last few years. From late 2021 onwards, various factors converged to encourage a global acceleration of prices, leading to the ongoing inflation crisis. Blocked-up supply chains were one of the main factors as the world emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic. This was followed by energy and food inflation skyrocketing after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Central bank interest rates were raised globally in response to the problem, possibly putting an end to the era of cheap money that has defined monetary policy since the financial crash of 2008.

The UK car loan market, valued at approximately £56.62 million in 2025, is projected to experience robust growth, fueled by a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6.60% from 2025 to 2033. This expansion is driven by several factors. Rising car prices and the increasing preference for purchasing vehicles through financing options are key contributors. The market is segmented by product type (new and used cars for both consumer and business use) and provider type (banks, non-banking financial services, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), and fintech companies). The competitive landscape includes established players like Barclays Partner Finance, Santander UK, and Lloyds Bank, alongside burgeoning fintech lenders offering innovative financing solutions. Growing consumer demand, particularly for used cars, is expected to stimulate market growth, alongside competitive lending rates and flexible repayment terms offered by various providers. However, economic uncertainties and potential interest rate hikes could pose challenges, potentially moderating growth in the latter part of the forecast period. The increasing adoption of online platforms and digital lending technologies is streamlining the car loan application process, enhancing customer convenience, and further boosting market expansion. The regional breakdown of the UK car loan market reveals a concentration within the country itself, given the regional data provided focuses on a global perspective. However, within the UK, varying regional economic conditions and consumer purchasing power could influence the distribution of loan volumes across different areas. The presence of major financial institutions across various regions within the UK ensures widespread access to car financing. The growth trajectory depends significantly on the broader economic climate and consumer confidence, which will determine overall demand for car loans and influence lending behaviors. The continued evolution of financial technology and its application within the automotive finance sector is poised to reshape the market's dynamics throughout the forecast period. Recent developments include: March 2023: AMS, the global talent solutions business, and Tesco Bank, which serves over 5 million customers in the United Kingdom, announced the establishment of a new 3-year partnership., Feb 2022: Barclays announced a strategic partnership with global corporate venture builder Rainmaking to drive FinTech innovation. With the support of Rainmaking, Barclays will launch a new suite of initiatives targeted at FinTech founders across the globe.. Key drivers for this market are: Low Interest Rates are Driving the Market, Increased Consumer Demand for Cars. Potential restraints include: Low Interest Rates are Driving the Market, Increased Consumer Demand for Cars. Notable trends are: Low Interest Rates are Driving the Market.

Plumbing and HVAC contractors’ revenue depends on construction sector cycles and tends to follow economic and investment trends. Lingering inflationary pressure has constrained budgets, reducing investor sentiment for commercial clients and restricting consumers' disposable incomes, causing many to postpone renovation activities until economic conditions stabilise. The essential nature of some services, like repair and maintenance work and industrial facility upkeep, provides some stability against economic fluctuations, meaning revenue is more stable than the wider construction sector. Supportive government policies to bolster the UK's housing stock and improve public infrastructure, like the Affordable Homes Programme and the School Rebuilding Programme, have also created consistent tender opportunities, driving revenue for Plumbing, Heating and Air Conditioning installers. This has helped elevate profit, with essential services able to be charged at higher prices, offsetting price hikes elsewhere. Following a strong post-pandemic recovery, worsening economic conditions hampered revenue prospects as the Russia-Ukraine conflict disrupted global supply chains and led to soaring material and energy prices. Plumbing and HVAC contractors grappled with these soaring costs and faced hikes in service prices, hindering sales prospects. Inflationary pressure has been met with an environment of heightened interest rates, which reached 5.25% in August 2023, according to the Bank of England. There has been a steady downward trend in interest rates since, hitting 4% in August 2025, but consumer and business confidence is still low, hampering commercial and residential construction output in the private sector. Revenue is projected to climb at a compound annual rate of 5.5% over the five years through 2025-26, mainly due to the initial strong post-pandemic rebound and the essential nature of some services. In 2025-26, revenue is anticipated to contract by 1.6% to £24.3 billion as contractors grapple with low business confidence and tighter consumer budgets. Over the coming years, ongoing policy support will help provide a strong platform for revenue growth. The continual commitment to building 1.5 million new homes by 2029 and the implementation of the Social and Affordable Housing Programme in 2026, backed by £39 billion of funding, will provide plenty of contract opportunities in the residential sector. Commercial construction will also rebound as economic conditions stabilise, with inflation rates set to subside and interest rates predicted to continue to drop, prompting greater investment spending. Ongoing commitments to enhance sustainability in the commercial sector will provide many installation opportunities, with technological advancements and regulatory changes set to alter the landscape of plumbing and HVAC installation. Those that embrace technological innovation will be best set to capitalise on this shift. Overall, revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 4% over the five years through 2030-31 to reach £29.6 billion.

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Retail Banking IT Spending Market Size 2025-2029

The retail banking it spending market size is forecast to increase by USD 14.64 billion at a CAGR of 4.6% between 2024 and 2029.

The market is experiencing significant growth, driven by the increasing need for greater customer satisfaction through personalized services and digital offerings. This trend is further fueled by the incorporation of advanced analytics into third-party banking software, enabling institutions to gain valuable insights into customer behavior and preferences. However, this digital transformation comes with challenges, particularly in the areas of data privacy and security. As financial institutions continue to invest in IT solutions to meet evolving customer demands, they must also prioritize security measures to protect sensitive customer information. Companies seeking to capitalize on this market opportunity must stay abreast of the latest technologies and regulatory requirements, while also addressing the growing concerns around data privacy and security. Effective strategic planning and operational execution will be crucial for retail banks to navigate these challenges and succeed in this dynamic market.

What will be the Size of the Retail Banking IT Spending Market during the forecast period?

Request Free SampleThe market is experiencing significant growth as financial institutions prioritize technology investments to enhance customer experience, operational efficiency, and competitive position. With increasing interest rates and inflationary pressure, net interest margins remain a crucial revenue stream for retail banks. However, customer satisfaction and service propositions are key differentiators in a market where external stimuli, such as digital transformation and changing consumer preferences, continue to shape the landscape. IT spending in retail banking is focused on IT hardware and software, with a shift towards cloud solutions and mobile banking to improve accessibility and convenience. Data analytics and cybersecurity measures are also critical investments to mitigate risks and provide personalized offerings. Retail banks are embracing IT services to stay competitive, with a focus on digital transformation and the implementation of innovative technologies such as artificial intelligence, autonomous banking, blockchain technology, and biometric authentication. The integration of these advanced IT solutions aims to streamline banking operations, enhance security, and create value propositions that cater to evolving customer needs.

How is this Retail Banking IT Spending Industry segmented?

The retail banking it spending industry research report provides comprehensive data (region-wise segment analysis), with forecasts and estimates in 'USD billion' for the period 2025-2029, as well as historical data from 2019-2023 for the following segments. TypeIT servicesIT hardwareIT softwareApplicationApplication development and maintenanceSoftware deployment and supportInternal operationsChannel managementOthersGeographyNorth AmericaUSCanadaEuropeFranceGermanyItalyThe NetherlandsUKAPACChinaIndiaJapanMiddle East and AfricaSouth America

By Type Insights

The it services segment is estimated to witness significant growth during the forecast period.In the retail banking sector, IT spending continues to be a significant investment area, driven by factors such as interest rates, net interest, inflationary pressure, and customer experience. IT services, including application development and maintenance, system integration, IT consulting, software deployment and support, and hardware deployment and support, dominate IT spending. IT consulting services experienced a 10% year-over-year growth in 2023, surpassing the overall IT services spend growth of 8.8%. Key players, such as Accenture, Capgemini, Cognizant, EPAM, Grid Dynamics, and HCL Tech, expanded their artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities in Q2 2023, with many collaborating with Google Cloud to enhance their offerings. Technological advancements, consumer preferences, economic developments, and revenue streams influence retail banking IT spending. IT workforce, cloud spending, production volume, and operational efficiency are essential components of retail banking IT spending. Digital transformation through technologies like artificial intelligence, data analytics, cloud native ecosystem, infrastructure as code, cloud migration, containerization technologies, threat detection, prevention technologies, data encryption, blockchain technology, and fraud protection are shaping the retail banking landscape. Customer relationship management, online transaction systems, mobile banking, and digital banking are crucial customer experience propositions. Consumer expectations for seamless digital experiences and enhanced security are driving the adoption of these technologies.

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In 2024, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United Kingdom grew by *** percent and is expected to grow by *** percent in 2025 and by *** percent in 2026. Between 2027 and 2030, the economy is forecast to grow by ****percent every year. The sudden emergence of COVID-19 in 2020 and subsequent closure of large parts of the economy were the cause of the huge *** percent contraction in 2020, with the economy recovering somewhat in 2021, when the economy grew by *** percent. Long-term growth downgraded Although the UK economy will grow faster than expected in 2025, long-term economic growth is predicted to be slower. Increased geopolitical uncertainty as well as lower than expected productivity growth were some of the main reasons cited for this downgrade. In addition, the UK's inflation rate for 2025 was also revised, with an annual rate of *** percent predicated, up from *** percent in the last forecast. Unemployment has also been higher than initially thought, with the annual unemployment rate likely to be *** percent instead of *** percent. Long-term growth problems In the last two quarters of 2023, the UK economy shrank by *** percent in Q3 and by *** percent in Q4, plunging the UK into recession for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. Even before that last recession, however, the UK economy has been struggling with weak growth. Although growth since the pandemic has been noticeably sluggish, there has been a clear long-term trend of declining growth rates. The economy has consistently been seen as one of the most important issues to people in Britain, ahead of health, immigration and the environment. Achieving strong levels of economic growth is one of the main aims of the current government elected, although after one and a half years in power it has so far proven elusive.