August 2024 marked a significant shift in the UK's monetary policy, as it saw the first reduction in the official bank base interest rate since August 2023. This change came after a period of consistent rate hikes that began in late 2021. In a bid to minimize the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bank of England cut the official bank base rate in March 2020 to a record low of *** percent. This historic low came just one week after the Bank of England cut rates from **** percent to **** percent in a bid to prevent mass job cuts in the United Kingdom. It remained at *** percent until December 2021 and was increased to one percent in May 2022 and to **** percent in October 2022. After that, the bank rate increased almost on a monthly basis, reaching **** percent in August 2023. It wasn't until August 2024 that the first rate decrease since the previous year occurred, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy. Why do central banks adjust interest rates? Central banks, including the Bank of England, adjust interest rates to manage economic stability and control inflation. Their strategies involve a delicate balance between two main approaches. When central banks raise interest rates, their goal is to cool down an overheated economy. Higher rates curb excessive spending and borrowing, which helps to prevent runaway inflation. This approach is typically used when the economy is growing too quickly or when inflation is rising above desired levels. Conversely, when central banks lower interest rates, they aim to encourage borrowing and investment. This strategy is employed to stimulate economic growth during periods of slowdown or recession. Lower rates make it cheaper for businesses and individuals to borrow money, which can lead to increased spending and investment. This dual approach allows central banks to maintain a balance between promoting growth and controlling inflation, ensuring long-term economic stability. Additionally, adjusting interest rates can influence currency values, impacting international trade and investment flows, further underscoring their critical role in a nation's economic health. Recent interest rate trends Between 2021 and 2025, most advanced and emerging economies experienced a period of regular interest rate hikes. This trend was driven by several factors, including persistent supply chain disruptions, high energy prices, and robust demand pressures. These elements combined to create significant inflationary trends, prompting central banks to raise rates to temper spending and borrowing. However, in 2024, a shift began to occur in global monetary policy. The European Central Bank (ECB) was among the first major central banks to reverse this trend by cutting interest rates. This move signaled a change in approach aimed at addressing growing economic slowdowns and supporting growth.

Between January 2018 and September 2025, the United Kingdom's consumer price inflation rate showed notable volatility. The rate hit its lowest point at *** percent in August 2020 and peaked at *** percent in October 2022. By September 2025, inflation had moderated to *** percent, indicating a gradual increase in inflation rates in the preceding months. The Bank of England's interest rate policy closely tracked these inflationary trends. Rates remained low at -* percent until April 2020, when they were reduced to *** percent in response to economic challenges. A series of rate increases followed, reaching a peak of **** percent from August 2023 to July 2024. The central bank then initiated rate cuts in August and November 2024, lowering the rate to **** percent, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy. In February 2025, the Bank of England implemented another rate cut, setting the bank rate at *** percent, which was further reduced to **** percent in May 2025 and remained at * percent as of September 2025. Global context of inflation and interest rates The UK's experience reflects a broader international trend of rising inflation and subsequent central bank responses. From January 2022 to July 2024, advanced and emerging economies alike increased their policy rates to counter inflationary pressures. However, a shift began in late 2024, with many countries, including the UK, starting to lower rates. This change suggests a potential new phase in the global economic cycle and monetary policy approach. Comparison with other major economies The UK's monetary policy decisions align closely with those of other major economies. The United States, for instance, saw its federal funds rate peak at **** percent in August 2023, mirroring the UK's rate trajectory. Similarly, central bank rates in the EU all increased drastically between 2022 and 2024. These synchronized movements reflect the global nature of inflationary pressures and the coordinated efforts of central banks to maintain economic stability. As with the UK, both the U.S. and EU began considering rate cuts in late 2024, signaling a potential shift in the global economic landscape.

The benchmark interest rate in the United Kingdom was last recorded at 4 percent. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The U.S. federal funds effective rate underwent a dramatic reduction in early 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The rate plummeted from 1.58 percent in February 2020 to 0.65 percent in March and further decreased to 0.05 percent in April. This sharp reduction, accompanied by the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, was implemented to stabilize the economy during the global health crisis. After maintaining historically low rates for nearly two years, the Federal Reserve began a series of rate hikes in early 2022, with the rate moving from 0.33 percent in April 2022 to 5.33 percent in August 2023. The rate remained unchanged for over a year before the Federal Reserve initiated its first rate cut in nearly three years in September 2024, bringing the rate to 5.13 percent. By December 2024, the rate was cut to 4.48 percent, signaling a shift in monetary policy in the second half of 2024. In January 2025, the Federal Reserve implemented another cut, setting the rate at 4.33 percent, which remained unchanged until September 2025, when another cut set the rate at 4.22 percent. In October 2025, the rate was further reduced to 4.09 percent. What is the federal funds effective rate? The U.S. federal funds effective rate determines the interest rate paid by depository institutions, such as banks and credit unions, that lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight. Changing the effective rate in times of crisis is a common way to stimulate the economy, as it has a significant impact on the whole economy, such as economic growth, employment, and inflation. Central bank policy rates The adjustment of interest rates in response to the COVID-19 pandemic was a coordinated global effort. In early 2020, central banks worldwide implemented aggressive monetary easing policies to combat the economic crisis. The U.S. Federal Reserve's dramatic reduction of its federal funds rate—from 1.58 percent in February 2020 to 0.05 percent by April—mirrored similar actions taken by central banks globally. While these low rates remained in place throughout 2021, mounting inflationary pressures led to a synchronized tightening cycle beginning in 2022, with central banks pushing rates to multi-year highs. By mid-2024, as inflation moderated across major economies, central banks began implementing their first rate cuts in several years, with the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank all easing monetary policy.

In September 2025, global inflation rates and central bank interest rates showed significant variation across major economies. Most economies initiated interest rate cuts from mid-2024 due to declining inflationary pressures. The U.S., UK, and EU central banks followed a consistent pattern of regular rate reductions throughout late 2024. In September 2025, Russia maintained the highest interest rate at 17 percent, while Japan retained the lowest at 0.5 percent. Varied inflation rates across major economies The inflation landscape varies considerably among major economies. China had the lowest inflation rate at -0.3 percent in September 2025. In contrast, Russia maintained a high inflation rate of 8 percent. These figures align with broader trends observed in early 2025, where China had the lowest inflation rate among major developed and emerging economies, while Russia's rate remained the highest. Central bank responses and economic indicators Central banks globally implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-23 to combat inflation. The European Central Bank exemplified this trend, raising rates from 0 percent in January 2022 to 4.5 percent by September 2023. A coordinated shift among major central banks began in mid-2024, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting further cuts through 2025 and 2026.

Mortgage rates surged at an unprecedented pace in 2022, with the average 10-year fixed rate doubling between March and December of that year. In response to mounting inflation, the Bank of England implemented a series of rate hikes, pushing borrowing costs steadily higher. By October 2025, the average 10-year fixed mortgage rate stood at **** percent. As financing becomes more expensive, housing demand has cooled, weighing on market sentiment and slowing house price growth. How have the mortgage hikes affected the market? After surging in 2021, the number of residential properties sold fell significantly in 2023, dipping to just above *** million transactions. This contraction in activity also dampened mortgage lending. Between the first quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, the value of new mortgage loans declined year-on-year for five consecutive quarters. Even as rates eased modestly in 2024 and housing activity picked up slightly, volumes remained well below the highs recorded in 2021. How are higher mortgages impacting homebuyers? For homeowners, the impact is being felt most acutely as fixed-rate deals expire. Mortgage terms in the UK typically range from two to ten years, and many borrowers who locked in historically low rates are now facing significantly higher repayments when refinancing. By the end of 2026, an estimated five million homeowners will see their mortgage deals expire. Roughly two million of these loans are projected to experience a monthly payment increase of up to *** British pounds by 2026, putting additional pressure on household budgets and constraining affordability across the market.

Inflation Rate in the United Kingdom decreased to 3.60 percent in October from 3.80 percent in September of 2025. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The Floor and Wall Covering industry’s revenue is forecast to climb at a compound annual rate of 1% over the five years through 2024-25 to reach £4.1 billion. Floor and wall covering contractors compete for work in the residential, commercial, public and industrial markets and revenue tends to run procyclical to the wider economy. Challenging economic conditions have reduced contractors' income prospects in recent years, constraining revenue growth. The industry has endured several challenges due to both domestic and global disruptions, including Brexit, COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which have caused revenue fluctuations. These events have significantly disrupted supply chains, inflating raw material prices and operational costs for contractors, cutting into their profitability. At the same time, some of the escalated costs have been passed onto customers, resulting in limited income opportunities for contractors due to consumers tightening their budgets thanks to the cost-of-living crisis. Persistent inflationary pressures have diminished the post-pandemic recovery in construction activity, weighing on new contract opportunities and constraining growth. The Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate hike to 5.25% in August 2023 to suppress inflation hampered investment in both the residential and commercial construction market, hitting demand for floor and wall coverings in new buildings. Alongside this, the surge in borrowing costs has prompted homeowners to scale back their spending or turn to DIY home renovation projects. Inflation is easing in 2024-25, which has prompted the BoE to begin cutting the interest rate – it fell to 4.5% in February 2025. However, economic uncertainty persists following the 2024 Autumn Budget’s business tax increases, which has undermined consumer and business confidence, hindering investments and limiting demand for floor and wall covering services. Nonetheless, supportive government policies, like the Affordable Homes Programme, primarily aimed at the residential market, are driving demand, supporting an expected revenue hike of 4.3% in 2024-25 Over the five years through 2029-30, revenue is anticipated to grow at a compound annual rate of 3.4% to £4.8 billion. Strong residential construction activity will continue to drive growth, benefitting from supportive government policies to bolster the UK's housing stock. Non-residential construction activity will benefit from recovering economic conditions, which will support investments in commercial property spaces, like offices, boosting demand. Recovering consumer confidence and incomes should drive a resurgence in demand from homeowners. However, the industry will continue to face persistent labour shortages, which, coupled with anticipated wage hikes, will contribute to escalating operating costs.

Unemployment Rate in the United Kingdom increased to 5 percent in September from 4.80 percent in August of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United Kingdom Unemployment Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Revenue is forecast to expand at a compound annual rate of 2.1% over the five years through 2025-26 to £404.7 million. The test drilling and boring industry’s revenue tends to run in line with economic and investment trends in the wider construction sector. In recent years, stubborn inflation and constrained budgets have led to new construction output contracting, resulting in limited tender opportunities, which has seen industry revenue slow. Larger companies are more resilient to economic downturns as they are likely to secure public and civil work, which is less susceptible to economic conditions. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, recovery was sluggish due to the supply chain disruptions. These disruptions, initially caused by the pandemic, were exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, resulting in persistent inflation that has plagued the industry’s operating costs. Construction material prices have trended upwards amid inflationary pressures, hindering test drilling and boring contractors’ average profit margin. Inflation prompted the Bank of England to hike the interest rate, cooling the housing market and reducing homeowners’ equity levels, which, in turn, dampened investment opportunities. In 2024-25, economic conditions are slowly stabilising as inflation trends downward, leading to the BoE reducing the interest rate for the first time since 2020. However, prices have continued to face upward pressures due to ongoing supply chain disruptions in 2025-26. While the BoE has cut the interest rate to 4% in August 2025, it remains high, which suppresses investment opportunities in the construction sector, particularly in the residential and commercial markets. Despite this uncertainty, robust government investment in infrastructure is supporting test drilling and boring revenue prospects. In 2025-26, revenue growth is forecast to climb by 2.5%. Over the five years through 2030-31, revenue is forecast to expand at a compound annual rate of 3.6% to £482.9 million. Significant infrastructure investments in the UK, particularly in transport network expansions, will generate revenue for test drilling and boring contractors, despite economic uncertainties. The government's target of adding 1.5 million new homes by 2029 will drive demand for these services. Technological advancements in the industry are set to be increasingly integrated into services to enhance precision and efficiency.

View daily updates and historical trends for Sterling Overnight Index Average (SONIA). from United Kingdom. Source: Bank of England. Track economic data w…

In June 2024, the European Central Bank (ECB) began reducing its fixed interest rate for the first time since 2016, implementing a series of cuts. The rate decreased from 4.5 percent to 3.15 percent by year-end: a 0.25 percentage point cut in June, followed by additional reductions in September, October, and December. The central bank implemented other cuts in the first half of 2025, setting the rate at 2.15 percent in June 2025. This marked a significant shift from the previous rate hike cycle, which began in July 2022 when the ECB raised rates to 0.5 percent and subsequently increased them almost monthly, reaching 4.5 percent by December 2023 - the highest level since the 2007-2008 global financial crisis. How does this ensure liquidity? Banks typically hold only a fraction of their capital in cash, measured by metrics like the Tier 1 capital ratio. Since this ratio is low, banks prefer to allocate most of their capital to revenue-generating loans. When their cash reserves fall too low, banks borrow from the ECB to cover short-term liquidity needs. On the other hand, commercial banks can also deposit excess funds with the ECB at a lower interest rate. Reasons for fluctuations
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability. The Euro area inflation rate is, in theory, the key indicator guiding the ECB's actions. When the fixed interest rate is lower, commercial banks are more likely to borrow from the ECB, increasing the money supply and, in turn, driving inflation higher. When inflation rises, the ECB increases the fixed interest rate, which slows borrowing and helps to reduce inflation.

Economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures have spurred a degree of instability in the UK economy in recent years. This has made private investors reluctant to dedicate significant spending towards capital ventures, weighing on lead generation in commercial building construction markets. High construction costs and rising interest rates have created further apprehension among property developers to engage in new ventures, though long-term government capital procurement frameworks have provided some resilience to wavering private investment. Aided by the release of pent-up demand and a stronger-than-anticipated initial economic recovery from the pandemic, the industry recorded a strong rebound in new orders in 2021-22, particularly in private commercial and private industrial markets. However, capacity constraints and the impact of reduced new work volumes secured during the height of the pandemic limited output growth. Growth in new order volumes slowed in 2022-23, as economic uncertainty compounded and rising tender prices reduced the propensity of investors to commit to commercial real estate ventures. High borrowing costs continued to weigh on investor sentiment in 2023-24, with interest rates hitting 5.25% in August 2023, according to the Bank of England. However, a steady stream of work on projects procured through capital procurement frameworks, including Procure23 and the School Rebuilding Programme, has bolstered revenue growth for publicly funded buildings. Overall, revenue is expected to climb at a compound annual rate of 3.6% over the five years through 2025-26 to £21.6 billion, despite a forecast dip of 1.4% in 2025-26 as inflationary pressure hits demand. Revenue is slated to swell at a compound annual rate of 1.1% over the five years through 2030-31 to reach £22.9 billion. The effects of the UK's economic slowdown will continue to bite in the near term as weak order books limit remuneration. Still, commitments made by the government as part of capital procurement frameworks will continue to support demand for commercial building contractors in the coming years, while private-sector order books should improve as borrowing costs come down. Although input price inflation is set to continue to ease in the medium term, material costs are likely to remain elevated and a construction worker shortage will pressure profit. According to the Building Cost Information Service, material costs are anticipated to grow by 15% in the five years through Q3 2030.

Plumbing and HVAC contractors’ revenue depends on construction sector cycles and tends to follow economic and investment trends. Lingering inflationary pressure has constrained budgets, reducing investor sentiment for commercial clients and restricting consumers' disposable incomes, causing many to postpone renovation activities until economic conditions stabilise. The essential nature of some services, like repair and maintenance work and industrial facility upkeep, provides some stability against economic fluctuations, meaning revenue is more stable than the wider construction sector. Supportive government policies to bolster the UK's housing stock and improve public infrastructure, like the Affordable Homes Programme and the School Rebuilding Programme, have also created consistent tender opportunities, driving revenue for Plumbing, Heating and Air Conditioning installers. This has helped elevate profit, with essential services able to be charged at higher prices, offsetting price hikes elsewhere. Following a strong post-pandemic recovery, worsening economic conditions hampered revenue prospects as the Russia-Ukraine conflict disrupted global supply chains and led to soaring material and energy prices. Plumbing and HVAC contractors grappled with these soaring costs and faced hikes in service prices, hindering sales prospects. Inflationary pressure has been met with an environment of heightened interest rates, which reached 5.25% in August 2023, according to the Bank of England. There has been a steady downward trend in interest rates since, hitting 4% in August 2025, but consumer and business confidence is still low, hampering commercial and residential construction output in the private sector. Revenue is projected to climb at a compound annual rate of 5.5% over the five years through 2025-26, mainly due to the initial strong post-pandemic rebound and the essential nature of some services. In 2025-26, revenue is anticipated to contract by 1.6% to £24.3 billion as contractors grapple with low business confidence and tighter consumer budgets. Over the coming years, ongoing policy support will help provide a strong platform for revenue growth. The continual commitment to building 1.5 million new homes by 2029 and the implementation of the Social and Affordable Housing Programme in 2026, backed by £39 billion of funding, will provide plenty of contract opportunities in the residential sector. Commercial construction will also rebound as economic conditions stabilise, with inflation rates set to subside and interest rates predicted to continue to drop, prompting greater investment spending. Ongoing commitments to enhance sustainability in the commercial sector will provide many installation opportunities, with technological advancements and regulatory changes set to alter the landscape of plumbing and HVAC installation. Those that embrace technological innovation will be best set to capitalise on this shift. Overall, revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 4% over the five years through 2030-31 to reach £29.6 billion.

In October 2025, the UK inflation rate was 3.8 percent, with prices rising fastest in the housing sector, which had an inflation rate of 7.3 percent. In this month, prices were rising in all sectors, with prices rising at the slowest pace in the furniture, household equipment and maintenance sector. UK inflation falls in 2024 After reaching a peak of 11.1 percent in October 2022, the CPI inflation rate in the UK gradually declined over several months, falling to a low of 1.7 percent by August 2024. An uptick in inflation has occurred since that month, however, and by the end of the year, inflation was at 2.5 percent above the Bank of England's target rate of two percent. Going into 2025, recent forecasts suggest that over the course of the year, inflation will average out at 2.6 percent, with the two percent target not met on an annual basis until at least 2029. Roots of the inflation crisis This long period of high inflation that the UK and much of the world experienced had its roots in the post-pandemic economic recovery of 2021. During that year, as consumer demand returned, global supply chains struggled to return to full capacity, resulting in prices rising. With inflation already elevated going into 2022, Russia's invasion of Ukraine added even more inflationary pressures to the global economy. European markets which were heavily reliant on Russian oil and gas gradually phased out hydrocarbons from their economies. Food prices were also heavily impacted due to Ukraine's difficulty in exporting its agricultural products.

In July 2025, the inflation rate for food prices in the United Kingdom was measured at 4.9 percent. A period of continuous deflation between March 2015 and January 2017 preceded a return to a sustained rise in the cost of food from February 2017 onwards. While food prices were deflating between September 2020 and July 2021, they started increasing rapidly from August 2021 to March 2023. The inflation rate started to decline from April 2023, but is picking up again in 2025.Inflation rate and consumer price indexInflation is commonly measured via the consumer price index, which illustrates changes to prices paid by consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. An annualized percentage change in the price index constitutes a measure of inflation. In order to maintain an inflation rate at a stable level, to enable the general public and businesses to plan their spending, the Government set a two percent inflation target for the Bank of England. The discounter boom The increase in food prices in the United Kingdom has shifted shopping behaviors amongst consumers. Value is now key and shoppers are changing their retailer loyalties. Aldi, the German discount supermarket retailer, overtook Morrisons as Great Britain's fourth largest supermarket in September of 2022. Aldi's market share reached double digits for the first time in April 2023. It is yet to be seen if Lidl, Aldi's discounter competitor, can also continue to rise up in the ranks and eventually take over Morrisons as the fifth leading food retailer.

In 2025, the average annual inflation rate for the United Kingdom is expected to 3.5 percent, with the average rate for 2026 predicted to fall to 2.5 percent. Inflation in the UK increased at a faster rate than expected, with the rate revised upwards from an earlier prediction of 3.2 percent. Like many countries, the UK has only recently recovered from a period of elevated inflation, which saw the CPI rate reach 9.1 percent in 2022, and 7.3 percent in 2023. Despite the recent uptick in 2025, the inflation rate is expected to fall to 2.5 percent in 2026, and to two percent between 2027 and 2029. UK inflation crisis Between 2021 and 2023, inflation surged in the UK, reaching a 41-year-high of 11.1 percent in October 2022. Although inflation fell to more usual levels by 2024, prices in the UK had already increased by over 20 percent relative to the start of the crisis. The two main drivers of price increases during this time were food and energy inflation, two of the main spending areas of UK households. Although food and energy prices came down quite sharply in 2023, underlying core inflation, which measures prices rises without food and energy, remained slightly above the headline inflation rate throughout 2024, suggesting some aspects of inflation had become embedded in the UK economy. Inflation rises across in the world in 2022 The UK was not alone in suffering from runaway inflation over the last few years. From late 2021 onwards, various factors converged to encourage a global acceleration of prices, leading to the ongoing inflation crisis. Blocked-up supply chains were one of the main factors as the world emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic. This was followed by energy and food inflation skyrocketing after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Central bank interest rates were raised globally in response to the problem, possibly putting an end to the era of cheap money that has defined monetary policy since the financial crash of 2008.

Inflation is an important measure of any country’s economy, and the Retail Price Index (RPI) is one of the most widely used indicators in the United Kingdom, with the rate expected to have reached an annual average of 4.3 percent in 2025, compared with 3.6 percent in 2024. This followed 2022, when RPI inflation reached a rate of 11.6 percent, by far the highest annual rate during this provided time period. CPI vs RPI Although the Retail Price Index is a commonly utilized inflation indicator, the UK also uses a newer method of calculating inflation, the Consumer Price Index. The CPI, along with the CPIH (Consumer Price Index including owner occupiers' housing costs) are usually preferred by the UK government, but the RPI is still used in certain instances. Increases in rail fares for example, are calculated using the RPI, while increases in pension payments are calculated using CPI, when this is used as the uprating factor. The use of one inflation measure over the other can therefore have a significant impact on people’s lives in the UK. High inflation eases in 2024 Like the Retail Price Index, the Consumer Price Index inflation rate also reached a recent peak in October 2022. In that month, prices were rising by 11.1 percent and did not fall below double figures until April 2023. This fall was largely due to slower price increases in key sectors such as energy, which drove a significant amount of the 2022 wave of inflation. Inflation nevertheless remains elevated, fueled not only by high food inflation, but also by underlying core inflation. As of February 2025, the overall CPI inflation rate was 2.8 percent, although an uptick in inflation is expected later in the year, with a rate of 3.7 percent forecast for the third quarter of the year.

Mortgage Rate in the United Kingdom remained unchanged at 6.78 percent in October. This dataset provides - United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Rate- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.