We present a new, publicly available database of real-time data and forecasts from the Bank of Canada's staff economic projections, which will be updated on an annual basis. We describe the data construct, its variables, coverage, and frequency. We then provide a forecast evaluation for gross domestic product (GDP) growth, consumer price index (CPI) inflation and the policy rate since 1982: We compare the staff's forecasts with those from commonly used time series models estimated with the real-time data, and with forecasts from other professional forecasters, and provide standard bias tests. Finally, we study changes in predictability of the Canadian economy following the announcement of the inflation-targeting regime in 1991. Our data set is unprecedented outside the USA, and our evidence is particularly interesting, as it covers over 30 years of staff forecasts, two severe recessions, and different monetary policy regimes.

Ce tableau contient 11 séries, avec des données à partir de 1949 (il n'y a pas nécessairement de données pour toutes les années pour l'ensemble des combinaisons). Les données sont présentées pour le mois actuel et les quatre mois précédents. Les utilisateurs peuvent sélectionner d’autres périodes qui les intéressent.

Le taux d'inflation au Canada est passé de 2,30 % en mars 2025 à 1,70 % en avril de la même année. Cette dataset fournit - Taux d'inflation du Canada - valeurs actuelles, données historiques, prévisions, graphique, statistiques, calendrier économique et actualités.

Diffusions historiques (temps réel) des mesures de l’inflation fondamentale, avec des données à partir de 1989 (il n'y a pas nécessairement de données pour toutes les années pour l'ensemble des combinaisons). Les données sont présentées pour la diffusion actuelle et les quatre diffusions précédentes. Les utilisateurs peuvent sélectionner d’autres diffusions qui les intéressent.

The data and programs replicate tables and figures from "Could a higher inflation target enhance macroeconomic stability?", by Dorich, St-Pierre, Lepetyuk and Mendes. Please see the ReadMe file for additional details. (2018-07-31)

Replication data for peer-reviewed article published in Canadian Journal of Economics. Paper published online July 31, 2018.

Statistiques de l'Indice des prix à la consommation (IPC), mesures de l'inflation fondamentale - définitions de la Banque du Canada, taux de variation en pourcentage d'une année à l'autre.

Files with names starting with "Input Data" include real-time data used to estimate output gaps. They also include inflation data used in the program titled "Program - inflation forecasting." Real-time output gap estimates are found in the spreadsheet titled "Estimates - Output gaps." They are used to run the program titled "Program - inflation forecasting." Forecasting errors and associated statistics, as estimated using the program titled "Program - inflation forecasting," can be found in the different files with names starting with "Estimates." Please note that while we make as much of the data used in our paper available, some of it is confidential and cannot be provided. This includes the Bank of Canada’s staff output gap estimates over the past five years and forecasts of economic variables produced by the Bank of Canada’ staff during the same period. Moreover, Consensus Forecasts are not provided, as they require a license. They can be bought from Consensus Economics.

Data for peer-reviewed article published] in Economic Modelling. Paper published online August 10, 2018.

Replication data and code for Cavallo, A., & Kryvtsov, O. (2024). Price discounts and cheapflation during the post-pandemic inflation surge. Journal of Monetary Economics. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103644