In 2023, the birth rate across different regions in China varied from around 13.7 births per 1,000 inhabitants (per mille) in Tibet to 2.9 per mille in Heilongjiang province. The average national birth rate ranged at 6.4 per mille that year. High disparity of birth rates across China Regional birth rates in China reach their highest values in western and southwestern provinces and autonomous regions. In this part of the country, the economy is less developed than in the coastal provinces and traditional values are more prevalent. At the same time, many people from minority communities live in these areas, who were less affected by strict birth control measures in the past and traditionally have more children. In contrast, the lowest birth rates in recent years were registered in the northwestern provinces Jilin, Liaoning, and Heilongjiang, which is the rust belt of China. This region offers few economic opportunities, and many young people leave for a better life in the eastern provinces. They often leave old people behind, which is one reason why these provinces also have some of the highest mortality rates in China. Future developments As most Chinese regions with a higher fertility rate have only few inhabitants, they cannot compensate for the increasing number of provinces with a declining populace. In the future, only economically successful cites will be able to escape this trend, while many provinces and rural areas will slowly lose a significant share of their population.

This study is part of a program of in-depth surveys on the population fertility and related factors in various provinces and municipalities of China.. The study aimed to improve understanding of the levels and trends in fertility of the Chinese population and to provide the government with reliable data useful in the formation of population policy. Data were collected in the provinces of Beijing, Liaoning, Gansu, Guangdong, Guizhou, and Shandong. For each province, data were collected on complete pregnancy and marriage history, fertility preferences and contraception, and socio-economic background.

The outbreak of the COVID-19 in early 2020 and the recurring epidemic in later years have disturbed China’s economy. Moreover, China’s demographic dividend has been disappearing due to its fastest aging population and declining birth rate. The birth rates in eastern provinces of China are much lower than those of the western provinces. Considering the impacts of the COVID-19 and aging population, this paper focused on the relationship between birth rate and the disposable income and tried to find effective measures to raise China’s birth rate. We discovered through regression analysis that the link between per capita disposable income and birth rate is initially "reverse J" and later "inverted J", indicating that per capita disposable income will influence the birth rate. Women’s employment rate and educational level are negatively correlated with the birth rate. To raise the fertility rate in China, it is necessary to increase the marriage rate and the willingness to have children by raising the per capita disposable income and introducing effective tax relief policies.

The data involve about 1400 peasant family heads in Shenqiu County, Henan province, China. The data were collected in 2016.

In recent years, in order to cope with the increasing trend of population aging, the Chinese government has constantly adjusted the family planning policy, continuously tracked and evaluated the actual effect of the birth policy adjustment, and the prediction and analysis of future births have important theoretical value and practical significance.The adjustment of the birth policy is of great significance for achieving long-term balanced population development. This paper assesses the net effect of fertility policy adjustments on Chinas birth and fertility rates by constructing a DID model using panel data collected from 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities over the period 2005-2021. The study shows that the fertility policy adjustment does not significantly increase the birth and fertility rates in China, and the findings are confirmed by robustness tests using various methods. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy is more pronounced in the central region. Further, a mechanistic and causal analysis reveals that fertility policy changes did not significantly increase peoples willingness to have children, nor did they affect many other factors that influence households fertility decisions. Finally, a GM (1, 1) grey forecast model is used to forecast the births in each province and municipality in the next five years, and it is concluded that the births in China will continue to show a declining trend. This paper argues that a supportive policy system for fertility should be established, public childcare and elderly care services should be optimised, and a favourable fertility climate and conditions should be created in order to improve fertility levels in China.

The infant mortality dataset was retrieved from China’s In-depth Fertility Sample Surveys (henceforth referred to as “fertility surveys”) of 1985 and 1987, which were conducted by the China Population Information and Research Center of the National Bureau of Statistics. In April of 1985, the first phase of the survey was implemented in Shanghai municipality and Hebei and Shaanxi provinces. The second fertility survey, following the same framework, was conducted in April of 1987 in Beijing municipality and Liaoning, Shandong, Guangdong, Guizhou, and Gansu provinces. In the last stage of random sampling, the equal probability (self-weighting) method was used to select households, from which all qualified women were interviewed by survey enumerators.

BackgroundAs population aging intensifies and women’s fertility levels decline continuously, the improvement of fertility policies has emerged as a pivotal concern for most governments. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of the “universal two-child” policy implementation on the birth population trend.MethodsA quasi-experimental interrupted time series (ITS) study was conducted to analyze the collected data. Data on the birth population of Shandong province from 2000 to 2022 were collected to observe trend changes before and after the intervention.ResultsThe birth rate increased immediately in the first year after the intervention (p 

Abstract (en): The China Multi-Generational Panel Dataset - Liaoning (CMGPD-LN) is drawn from the population registers compiled by the Imperial Household Agency (neiwufu) in Shengjing, currently the northeast Chinese province of Liaoning, between 1749 and 1909. It provides 1.5 million triennial observations of more than 260,000 residents from 698 communities. The population mainly consists of immigrants from North China who settled in rural Liaoning during the early eighteenth century, and their descendants. The data provide socioeconomic, demographic, and other characteristics for individuals, households, and communities, and record demographic outcomes such as marriage, fertility, and mortality. The data also record specific disabilities for a subset of adult males. Additionally, the collection includes monthly and annual grain price data, custom records for the city of Yingkou, as well as information regarding natural disasters, such as floods, droughts, and earthquakes. This dataset is unique among publicly available population databases because of its time span, volume, detail, and completeness of recording, and because it provides longitudinal data not just on individuals, but on their households, descent groups, and communities. Possible applications of the dataset include the study of relationships between demographic behavior, family organization, and socioeconomic status across the life course and across generations, the influence of region and community on demographic outcomes, and development and assessment of quantitative methods for the analysis of complex longitudinal datasets. ICPSR data undergo a confidentiality review and are altered when necessary to limit the risk of disclosure. ICPSR also routinely creates ready-to-go data files along with setups in the major statistical software formats as well as standard codebooks to accompany the data. In addition to these procedures, ICPSR performed the following processing steps for this data collection: Created variable labels and/or value labels.; Standardized missing values.; Created online analysis version with question text.; Checked for undocumented or out-of-range codes.. Smallest Geographic Unit: Chinese banners (8) The data are from 725 surviving triennial registers from 29 distinct populations. Each of the 29 register series corresponded to a specific rural population concentrated in a small number of neighboring villages. These populations were affiliated with the Eight Banner civil and military administration that the Qing state used to govern northeast China as well as some other parts of the country. 16 of the 29 populations are regular bannermen. In these populations adult males had generous allocations of land from the state, and in return paid an annual fixed tax to the Imperial Household Agency, and provided to the Imperial Household Agency such home products as homespun fabric and preserved meat, and/or such forest products as mushrooms. In addition, as regular bannermen they were liable for military service as artisans and soldiers which, while in theory an obligation, was actually an important source of personal revenue and therefore a political privilege. 8 of the 29 populations are special duty banner populations. As in the regular banner population, the adult males in the special duty banner populations also enjoyed state allocated land free of rent. These adult males were also assigned to provide special services, including collecting honey, raising bees, fishing, picking cotton, and tanning and dyeing. The remaining populations were a diverse mixture of estate banner and servile populations. The populations covered by the registers, like much of the population of rural Liaoning in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, were mostly descendants of Han Chinese settlers who came from Shandong and other nearby provinces in the late seventeenth and early eighteenth centuries in response to an effort by the Chinese state to repopulate the region. 2016-09-06 2016-09-06 The Training Guide has been updated to version 3.60. Additionally, the Principal Investigator affiliation has been corrected, and cover sheets for all PDF documents have been revised.2014-07-10 Releasing new study level documentation that contains the tables found in the appendix of the Analytic dataset codebook.2014-06-10 The data and documentation have been updated following re-evaluation.2014-01-29 Fixing variable format issues. Some variables that were supposed to be s...

In recent years, in order to cope with the increasing trend of population aging, the Chinese government has constantly adjusted the family planning policy, continuously tracked and evaluated the actual effect of the birth policy adjustment, and the prediction and analysis of future births have important theoretical value and practical significance.The adjustment of the birth policy is of great significance for achieving long-term balanced population development. This paper assesses the net effect of fertility policy adjustments on Chinas birth and fertility rates by constructing a DID model using panel data collected from 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities over the period 2005-2021. The study shows that the fertility policy adjustment does not significantly increase the birth and fertility rates in China, and the findings are confirmed by robustness tests using various methods. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy is more pronounced in the central region. Further, a mechanistic and causal analysis reveals that fertility policy changes did not significantly increase peoples willingness to have children, nor did they affect many other factors that influence households fertility decisions. Finally, a GM (1, 1) grey forecast model is used to forecast the births in each province and municipality in the next five years, and it is concluded that the births in China will continue to show a declining trend. This paper argues that a supportive policy system for fertility should be established, public childcare and elderly care services should be optimised, and a favourable fertility climate and conditions should be created in order to improve fertility levels in China.

In recent years, in order to cope with the increasing trend of population aging, the Chinese government has constantly adjusted the family planning policy, continuously tracked and evaluated the actual effect of the birth policy adjustment, and the prediction and analysis of future births have important theoretical value and practical significance.The adjustment of the birth policy is of great significance for achieving long-term balanced population development. This paper assesses the net effect of fertility policy adjustments on Chinas birth and fertility rates by constructing a DID model using panel data collected from 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities over the period 2005-2021. The study shows that the fertility policy adjustment does not significantly increase the birth and fertility rates in China, and the findings are confirmed by robustness tests using various methods. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy is more pronounced in the central region. Further, a mechanistic and causal analysis reveals that fertility policy changes did not significantly increase peoples willingness to have children, nor did they affect many other factors that influence households fertility decisions. Finally, a GM (1, 1) grey forecast model is used to forecast the births in each province and municipality in the next five years, and it is concluded that the births in China will continue to show a declining trend. This paper argues that a supportive policy system for fertility should be established, public childcare and elderly care services should be optimised, and a favourable fertility climate and conditions should be created in order to improve fertility levels in China.

In recent years, in order to cope with the increasing trend of population aging, the Chinese government has constantly adjusted the family planning policy, continuously tracked and evaluated the actual effect of the birth policy adjustment, and the prediction and analysis of future births have important theoretical value and practical significance.The adjustment of the birth policy is of great significance for achieving long-term balanced population development. This paper assesses the net effect of fertility policy adjustments on Chinas birth and fertility rates by constructing a DID model using panel data collected from 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities over the period 2005-2021. The study shows that the fertility policy adjustment does not significantly increase the birth and fertility rates in China, and the findings are confirmed by robustness tests using various methods. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy is more pronounced in the central region. Further, a mechanistic and causal analysis reveals that fertility policy changes did not significantly increase peoples willingness to have children, nor did they affect many other factors that influence households fertility decisions. Finally, a GM (1, 1) grey forecast model is used to forecast the births in each province and municipality in the next five years, and it is concluded that the births in China will continue to show a declining trend. This paper argues that a supportive policy system for fertility should be established, public childcare and elderly care services should be optimised, and a favourable fertility climate and conditions should be created in order to improve fertility levels in China.

In recent years, in order to cope with the increasing trend of population aging, the Chinese government has constantly adjusted the family planning policy, continuously tracked and evaluated the actual effect of the birth policy adjustment, and the prediction and analysis of future births have important theoretical value and practical significance.The adjustment of the birth policy is of great significance for achieving long-term balanced population development. This paper assesses the net effect of fertility policy adjustments on Chinas birth and fertility rates by constructing a DID model using panel data collected from 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities over the period 2005-2021. The study shows that the fertility policy adjustment does not significantly increase the birth and fertility rates in China, and the findings are confirmed by robustness tests using various methods. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy is more pronounced in the central region. Further, a mechanistic and causal analysis reveals that fertility policy changes did not significantly increase peoples willingness to have children, nor did they affect many other factors that influence households fertility decisions. Finally, a GM (1, 1) grey forecast model is used to forecast the births in each province and municipality in the next five years, and it is concluded that the births in China will continue to show a declining trend. This paper argues that a supportive policy system for fertility should be established, public childcare and elderly care services should be optimised, and a favourable fertility climate and conditions should be created in order to improve fertility levels in China.