VITAL SIGNS INDICATOR Poverty (EQ5)

FULL MEASURE NAME The share of the population living in households that earn less than 200 percent of the federal poverty limit

LAST UPDATED December 2018

DESCRIPTION Poverty refers to the share of the population living in households that earn less than 200 percent of the federal poverty limit, which varies based on the number of individuals in a given household. It reflects the number of individuals who are economically struggling due to low household income levels.

DATA SOURCE U.S Census Bureau: Decennial Census http://www.nhgis.org (1980-1990) http://factfinder2.census.gov (2000)

U.S. Census Bureau: American Community Survey Form C17002 (2006-2017) http://api.census.gov

METHODOLOGY NOTES (across all datasets for this indicator) The U.S. Census Bureau defines a national poverty level (or household income) that varies by household size, number of children in a household, and age of householder. The national poverty level does not vary geographically even though cost of living is different across the United States. For the Bay Area, where cost of living is high and incomes are correspondingly high, an appropriate poverty level is 200% of poverty or twice the national poverty level, consistent with what was used for past equity work at MTC and ABAG. For comparison, however, both the national and 200% poverty levels are presented.

For Vital Signs, the poverty rate is defined as the number of people (including children) living below twice the poverty level divided by the number of people for whom poverty status is determined. Poverty rates do not include unrelated individuals below 15 years old or people who live in the following: institutionalized group quarters, college dormitories, military barracks, and situations without conventional housing. The household income definitions for poverty change each year to reflect inflation. The official poverty definition uses money income before taxes and does not include capital gains or noncash benefits (such as public housing, Medicaid, and food stamps). For the national poverty level definitions by year, see: https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty/data/threshld/index.html For an explanation on how the Census Bureau measures poverty, see: https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty/about/overview/measure.html

For the American Community Survey datasets, 1-year data was used for region, county, and metro areas whereas 5-year rolling average data was used for city and census tract.

To be consistent across metropolitan areas, the poverty definition for non-Bay Area metros is twice the national poverty level. Data were not adjusted for varying income and cost of living levels across the metropolitan areas.

California State Income Limits reflect updated median income and household income levels for acutely low-, extremely low-, very low-, low- and moderate-income households for California’s 58 counties (required by Health and Safety Code Section 50093). These income limits apply to State and local affordable housing programs statutorily linked to HUD income limits and differ from income limits applicable to other specific federal, State, or local programs.

Table of household forecast numbers from Plan Bay Area 2040 for the San Francisco Bay Region. Household numbers are included for 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020, 2030, 2035, and 2040. There are no forecast numbers for 2025.The Plan Bay Area forecast numbers were generated by Transportation Analysis Zone (TAZ). The Household forecast table will need to be joined to TAZ features in order to spatially visualize the data. The TAZ features are available for download here.2005-2040 data in this table:Total HouseholdsNumber of Households in Lowest Income QuartileNumber of Households in Second Lowest Income QuartileNumber of Households in Second highest Income QuartileNumber of Households in Highest Income QuartileOther Plan Bay Area 2040 forecast tables:Employment (total employment, TAZ resident employment, retail employment, financial and professional services employment, health, educational, and recreational employment, manufacturing, wholesale, and transportation employment, agricultural and natural resources employment, and other employment)Land Use and Transportation (area type, commercial or industrial acres, residential acres, number of single-family and multi-family dwelling units, time to get from automobile storage location to origin/destination, and hourly parking rates)Population and Demographics (total population, household and group quarter populations, population by age group, share of population that is 62+, high school enrollment, and college enrollment)

Plan Bay Area 2050 utilized this single data layer to inform the Plan Bay Area 2050 Equity PriorityCommunities (EPC).

This data set was developed using American Community Survey (ACS) 2014-2018 data for eight variables considered.

This data set represents all tracts within the San Francisco Bay Region and contains attributes for the eight Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) Equity Priority Communities tract-level variables for exploratory purposes. These features were formerly referred to as Communities of Concern.

Plan Bay Area 2050 Equity Priority Communities (tract geography) are based on eight ACS 2014-2018 (ACS 2018) tract-level variables:

People of Color (70% threshold) Low-Income (less than 200% of Federal poverty level, 28% threshold) Level of English Proficiency (12% threshold) Seniors 75 Years and Over (8% threshold) Zero-Vehicle Households (15% threshold) Single-Parent Households (18% threshold) People with a Disability (12% threshold) Rent-Burdened Households (14% threshold)

If a tract exceeds both threshold values for Low-Income and People of Color shares OR exceeds thethreshold value for Low-Income AND also exceeds the threshold values for three or more variables, it is a EPC.

Detailed documentation on the production of this feature set can be found in the MTC Equity Priority Communities project documentation.

Graph and download economic data for 90% Confidence Interval Lower Bound of Estimate of Median Household Income for Bay County, MI (MHICILBMI26017A052NCEN) from 1989 to 2023 about Bay County, MI; Bay City; MI; households; median; income; and USA.

VITAL SIGNS INDICATOR
Poverty (EQ5)

FULL MEASURE NAME
The share of the population living in households that earn less than 200 percent of the federal poverty limit

LAST UPDATED
January 2023

DESCRIPTION
Poverty refers to the share of the population living in households that earn less than 200 percent of the federal poverty limit, which varies based on the number of individuals in a given household. It reflects the number of individuals who are economically struggling due to low household income levels.

DATA SOURCE
U.S Census Bureau: Decennial Census - http://www.nhgis.org
1980-2000

U.S. Census Bureau: American Community Survey - https://data.census.gov/
2007-2021
Form C17002

CONTACT INFORMATION
vitalsigns.info@mtc.ca.gov

METHODOLOGY NOTES (across all datasets for this indicator)
The U.S. Census Bureau defines a national poverty level (or household income) that varies by household size, number of children in a household, and age of householder. The national poverty level does not vary geographically even though cost of living is different across the United States. For the Bay Area, where cost of living is high and incomes are correspondingly high, an appropriate poverty level is 200% of poverty or twice the national poverty level, consistent with what was used for past equity work at MTC and ABAG. For comparison, however, both the national and 200% poverty levels are presented.

For Vital Signs, the poverty rate is defined as the number of people (including children) living below twice the poverty level divided by the number of people for whom poverty status is determined. The household income definitions for poverty change each year to reflect inflation. The official poverty definition uses money income before taxes and does not include capital gains or non-cash benefits (such as public housing, Medicaid and food stamps).

For the national poverty level definitions by year, see: US Census Bureau Poverty Thresholds - https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/income-poverty/historical-poverty-thresholds.html.

For an explanation on how the Census Bureau measures poverty, see: How the Census Bureau Measures Poverty - https://www.census.gov/topics/income-poverty/poverty/guidance/poverty-measures.html.

American Community Survey (ACS) 1-year data is used for larger geographies – Bay counties and most metropolitan area counties – while smaller geographies rely upon 5-year rolling average data due to their smaller sample sizes. Note that 2020 data uses the 5-year estimates because the ACS did not collect 1-year data for 2020.

To be consistent across metropolitan areas, the poverty definition for non-Bay Area metros is twice the national poverty level. Data were not adjusted for varying income and cost of living levels across the metropolitan areas.

VITAL SIGNS INDICATOR Housing Permits (LU3)

FULL MEASURE NAME Permitted housing units

LAST UPDATED October 2019

DESCRIPTION Housing growth is measured in terms of the number of units that local jurisdictions permit throughout a given year. A permitted unit is a unit that a city or county has authorized for construction.

DATA SOURCE Construction Industry Research Board Table 3: Residential Units and Valuation (1967-2010) No link available

California Housing Foundation/Construction Industry Research Board California Construction Trends (2011-2013) http://www.mychf.org/cirb/

Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) – Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) Housing Permits Database (2014-2017) http://opendata.mtc.ca.gov

CONTACT INFORMATION vitalsigns.info@bayareametro.gov

METHODOLOGY NOTES (across all datasets for this indicator) Bay Area housing permits data prior to 2014 comes from the California Housing Foundation/Construction Industry Research Board. Data from 2014 to 2017 comes from the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) – Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) Housing Permits Database.

Single-family housing units include detached, semi-detached, row house and town house units. Row houses and town houses are included as single-family units when each unit is separated from the adjacent unit by an unbroken ground-to-roof party or fire wall. Condominiums are included as single-family units when they are of zero-lot-line or zero-property-line construction; when units are separated by an air space; or, when units are separated by an unbroken ground-to-roof party or fire wall. Multi-family housing includes duplexes, three-to-four-unit structures and apartment-type structures with five units or more. Multi-family also includes condominium units in structures of more than one living unit that do not meet the single-family housing definition. In the permits data from 2014 to 2017, single-family units include all units not strictly classified as multi-family. This may include secondary units.

Each multi-family unit is counted separately even though they may be in the same building. Total units is the sum of single-family and multi-family units. County data is available from 1967 whereas city data is available from 1990. City data is only available for incorporated cities and towns. All permits in unincorporated cities and towns are included under their respective county’s unincorporated total. Permit data is not available for years when the city or town was not incorporated.

Affordable housing is the total number of permitted units affordable to low and very low income households. Housing affordable to very low income households are households making below 50% of the area median income. Housing affordable to low income households are households making between 50% and 80% of the area median income. Housing affordable to moderate income households are households making below 80% and 120% of the area median income. Housing affordable to above moderate income households are households making above 120% of the area median income.

Permit data is missing for the following cities and years: Clayton, 1990-2007 Lafayette, 1990-2007 Moraga, 1990-2007 Orinda, 1990-2007 San Ramon, 1990

Building permit data for metropolitan areas for each year is the sum of non-seasonally adjusted monthly estimates from the Building Permit Survey. The Bay Area values are the sum of the San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward MSA and the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara MSA. The counties included in these areas are: San Francisco, Marin, Contra Costa, Alameda, San Mateo, Santa Clara, and San Benito.

Permit values reflect the number of units permitted in each respective year.

VITAL SIGNS INDICATOR

Housing Permits (LU3)

FULL MEASURE NAME

Permitted housing units

LAST UPDATED

February 2023

DESCRIPTION

Housing growth is measured in terms of the number of units that local jurisdictions permit throughout a given year. A permitted unit is a unit that a city or county has authorized for construction.

DATA SOURCE

California Housing Foundation/Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB) - https://www.cirbreport.org/

Construction Review report (1967-2022)

Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) – Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) - https://data.bayareametro.gov/Development/HCD-Annual-Progress-Report-Jurisdiction-Summary/nxbj-gfv7

Housing Permits Database (2014-2021)

Census Bureau Building Permit Survey - https://www2.census.gov/econ/bps/County/

Building permits by county (annual, monthly)

CONTACT INFORMATION

vitalsigns.info@bayareametro.gov

METHODOLOGY NOTES (across all datasets for this indicator)

Bay Area housing permits data by single/multi family come from the California Housing Foundation/Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB). Affordability breakdowns from 2014 to 2021 come from the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) – Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) Housing Permits Database.

Single-family housing units include detached, semi-detached, row house and town house units. Row houses and town houses are included as single-family units when each unit is separated from the adjacent unit by an unbroken ground-to-roof party or fire wall. Condominiums are included as single-family units when they are of zero-lot-line or zero-property-line construction; when units are separated by an air space; or, when units are separated by an unbroken ground-to-roof party or fire wall. Multi-family housing includes duplexes, three-to-four-unit structures and apartment-type structures with five units or more. Multi-family also includes condominium units in structures of more than one living unit that do not meet the single-family housing definition.

Each multi-family unit is counted separately even though they may be in the same building. Total units is the sum of single-family and multi-family units. County data is available from 1967 whereas city data is available from 1990. City data is only available for incorporated cities and towns. All permits in unincorporated cities and towns are included under their respective county’s unincorporated total. Permit data is not available for years when the city or town was not incorporated.

Affordable housing is the total number of permitted units affordable to low and very low income households. Housing affordable to very low income households are households making below 50% of the area median income. Housing affordable to low income households are households making between 50% and 80% of the area median income. Housing affordable to moderate income households are households making below 80% and 120% of the area median income. Housing affordable to above moderate income households are households making above 120% of the area median income.

Permit data is missing for the following cities and years:

Clayton, 1990-2007

Lafayette, 1990-2007

Moraga, 1990-2007

Orinda, 1990-2007

San Ramon, 1990

Building permit data for metropolitan areas for each year is the sum of non-seasonally adjusted monthly estimates from the Census Building Permit Survey. The Bay Area values are the sum of the San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward MSA and the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara MSA. The counties included in these areas are: San Francisco, Marin, Contra Costa, Alameda, San Mateo, Santa Clara, and San Benito.

Permit values reflect the number of units permitted in each respective year. Note that the data columns come from difference sources. The columns (SFunits, MFunits, TOTALunits, SFShare and MFShare) are sourced from CIRB. The columns (VeryLowunits, Lowunits, Moderateunits, AboveModerateunits, VeryLowShare, LowShare, Moderate_Sha

Splitgraph serves as an HTTP API that lets you run SQL queries directly on this data to power Web applications. For example:

See the Splitgraph documentation for more information.

In 2022, San Francisco had the highest median household income of cities ranking within the top 25 in terms of population, with a median household income in of 136,692 U.S. dollars. In that year, San Jose in California was ranked second, and Seattle, Washington third.

Following a fall after the great recession, median household income in the United States has been increasing in recent years. As of 2022, median household income by state was highest in Maryland, Washington, D.C., Utah, and Massachusetts. It was lowest in Mississippi, West Virginia, and Arkansas. Families with an annual income of 25,000 and 49,999 U.S. dollars made up the largest income bracket in America, with about 25.26 million households.

Data on median household income can be compared to statistics on personal income in the U.S. released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal income rose to around 21.8 trillion U.S. dollars in 2022, the highest value recorded. Personal income is a measure of the total income received by persons from all sources, while median household income is “the amount with divides the income distribution into two equal groups,” according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Half of the population in question lives above median income and half lives below. Though total personal income has increased in recent years, this wealth is not distributed throughout the population. In practical terms, income of most households has decreased. One additional statistic illustrates this disparity: for the lowest quintile of workers, mean household income has remained more or less steady for the past decade at about 13 to 16 thousand constant U.S. dollars annually. Meanwhile, income for the top five percent of workers has actually risen from about 285,000 U.S. dollars in 1990 to about 499,900 U.S. dollars in 2020.

Graph and download economic data for 90% Confidence Interval Lower Bound of Estimate of Median Household Income for Oconto County, WI (MHICILBWI55083A052NCEN) from 1989 to 2023 about Oconto County, WI; Green Bay; WI; households; median; income; and USA.

VITAL SIGNS INDICATOR Displacement Risk (EQ3)

FULL MEASURE NAME Share of lower-income households living in tracts at risk of displacement

LAST UPDATED December 2018

DESCRIPTION Displacement risk refers to the share of lower-income households living in neighborhoods that have been losing lower-income residents over time, thus earning the designation “at risk”. While “at risk” households may not necessarily be displaced in the short-term or long-term, neighborhoods identified as being “at risk” signify pressure as reflected by the decline in lower-income households (who are presumed to relocate to other more affordable communities). The dataset includes metropolitan area, regional, county and census tract tables.

DATA SOURCE U.S. Census Bureau: Decennial Census 1980-1990 Form STF3 https://nhgis.org

U.S. Census Bureau: Decennial Census 2000 Form SF3a https://nhgis.org

U.S. Census Bureau: Decennial Census 1980-2010 Longitudinal Tract Database http://www.s4.brown.edu/us2010/index.htm

U.S. Census Bureau: American Community Survey 2010-2015 Form S1901 5-year rolling average http://factfinder2.census.gov

U.S. Census Bureau: American Community Survey 2010-2017 Form B19013 5-year rolling average http://factfinder2.census.gov

CONTACT INFORMATION vitalsigns.info@bayareametro.gov

METHODOLOGY NOTES (across all datasets for this indicator) Aligning with the approach used for Plan Bay Area 2040, displacement risk is calculated by comparing the analysis year with the most recent year prior to identify census tracts that are losing lower-income households. Historical data is pulled from U.S. Census datasets and aligned with today’s census tract boundaries using crosswalk tables provided by LTDB. Tract data, as well as regional income data, are calculated using 5-year rolling averages for consistency – given that tract data is only available on a 5-year basis. Using household tables by income level, the number of households in each tract falling below the median are summed, which involves summing all brackets below the regional median and then summing a fractional share of the bracket that includes the regional median (assuming a simple linear distribution within that bracket).

Once all tracts in a given county or metro area are synced to today’s boundaries, the analysis identifies census tracts of greater than 500 lower-income people (in the prior year) to filter out low-population areas. For those tracts, any net loss between the prior year and the analysis year results in that tract being flagged as being at risk of displacement, and all lower-income households in that tract are flagged. To calculate the share of households at risk, the number of lower-income households living in flagged tracts are summed and divided by the total number of lower-income households living in the larger geography (county or metro). Minor deviations on a year-to-year basis should be taken in context, given that data on the tract level often fluctuates and has a significant margin of error; changes on the county and regional level are more appropriate to consider on an annual basis instead.

Graph and download economic data for 90% Confidence Interval Lower Bound of Estimate of Median Household Income for Brevard County, FL (MHICILBFL12009A052NCEN) from 1989 to 2023 about Brevard County, FL; Palm Bay; FL; households; median; income; and USA.

This data set represents all urbanized tracts within the San Francisco Bay Region, and contains attributes for the eight Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) Equity Priority Communities (EPC) tract-level variables for exploratory purposes. These features were formerly referred to as Communities of Concern (CoC).MTC 2018 Equity Priority Communities (tract geography) is based on eight ACS 2012-2016 tract-level variables: Persons of Color (70% threshold) Low-Income (less than 200% of Fed. poverty level, 30% threshold) Level of English Proficiency (12% threshold) Elderly (10% threshold) Zero-Vehicle Households (10% threshold) Single Parent Households (20% threshold)Disabled (12% threshold) Rent-Burdened Households (15% threshold) If a tract exceeds both threshold values for Low-Income and Person of Color shares OR exceeds the threshold value for Low-Income AND also exceeds the threshold values for three or more variables, it is a EPC.Detailed documentation on the production of this feature set can be found in the MTC Equity Priority Communities project documentation.

Graph and download economic data for 90% Confidence Interval Lower Bound of Estimate of Related Children Age 5-17 in Families in Poverty for Bay County, MI (PECILB5T17MI26017A647NCEN) from 1989 to 2023 about Bay County, MI; Bay City; 5 to 17 years; MI; family; child; poverty; persons; and USA.

Graph and download economic data for 90% Confidence Interval Lower Bound of Estimate of Median Household Income for Bristol Bay Borough, AK (MHICILBAK02060A052NCEN) from 1989 to 2023 about Bristol Bay Borough, AK; AK; households; median; income; and USA.

A jurisdiction is subject to Senate Bill 35’s (SB 35) streamlining requirements if it has not made sufficient progress toward its Regional Housing Need Allocation (RHNA) goals, or if it failed to submit its latest Housing Element Annual Progress Report.Jurisdictions that did not permit enough above-moderate income units to meet a pro-rata share of their above-moderate income regional housing need for the current housing element cycle, are subject to SB 35 streamlining for projects that dedicate a minimum of 10 percent of units to be affordable to lower-income households. Jurisdictions that did not permit sufficient lower income units (very-low and low-income) to meet a pro-rata share of their very-low and low-income regional housing need for the current housing element cycle, are subject to SB 35 streamlining for projects that dedicate a minimum of 50 percent of units to be affordable to lower-income households.Although the determination of RHNA progress applies to the jurisdiction as a whole, certain locations, such as the coastal zone or prime farmland, are excluded from the streamlining requirements (see areas in red on second map).

This month's Map of the Month shows the locations and number of households that receive housing aid through a United States Department of Housing and Urban Affairs (HUD) program known as the Section 8 Project-Based Rental Assistance Program. Funding that goes to families within these households has expired or is set to expire by the end of February 2019. Under the program, rental assistance contracts provide housing aid to seniors or individuals with disabilities with average incomes typically below the federal poverty limit. Due to the government shutdown, roughly 1,150 contracts between HUD and private owners of multi-tenant buildings are in limbo across the United States. Another 500 contracts are set to expire in January, with another 550 contracts to follow in February. According to the National Low-Income Housing Coalition, should the shutdown persist into February, an estimated 1,500 Bay Area households could face the real prospect of eviction.

This data set represents American Community Survey (ACS) 2014-2018 tract information related to Equity Priority Communities (EPCs) for Plan Bay Area 2050+.The Plan Bay Area 2050+ Equity Priority Communities incorporate EPCs identified with 2014-2018 ACS data, as well as EPCs identified with 2018-2022 ACS data into a single consolidated map of Plan Bay Area 2050+ Equity Priority Communities.This data set was developed using American Community Survey 2014-2018 data for eight variables considered.This data set represents all tracts within the San Francisco Bay Region, and contains attributes for the eight Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) Equity Priority Communities tract-level variables for exploratory purposes. Equity Priority Communities are defined by MTC Resolution No. 4217-Equity Framework for Plan Bay Area 2040.As part of the development of the [DRAFT] Equity Priority Communities - Plan Bay Area 2050+ features, the source Census tracts had portions that overlapped either the Pacific Ocean or San Francisco Bay removed. The result is this feature set has fewer Census tracts than the unclipped tract source data.Plan Bay Area 2050+ Equity Priority Communities (tract geography) are based on eight ACS 2014-2018 (ACS 2018) tract-level variables:People of Color (70% threshold)Low-Income (less than 200% of Federal poverty level, 28% threshold)Level of English Proficiency (12% threshold)Seniors 75 Years and Over (8% threshold)Zero-Vehicle Households (15% threshold)Single-Parent Households (18% threshold)People with a Disability (12% threshold)Rent-Burdened Households (14% threshold)If a tract exceeds both threshold values for Low-Income and People of Color shares OR exceeds the threshold value for Low-Income AND also exceeds the threshold values for three or more variables, it is a EPC.Detailed documentation on the production of this feature set can be found in the MTC Equity Priority Communities project documentation.

Graph and download economic data for 90% Confidence Interval Lower Bound of Estimate of Median Household Income for Brown County, WI (MHICILBWI55009A052NCEN) from 1989 to 2023 about Brown County, WI; Green Bay; WI; households; median; income; and USA.

Many communities in the San Francisco Bay Region saw rent increases of 40% or more in the five-year period between 2011 and 2016. For too many lower income residents in our region, this meant living with friends and family, moving out of their neighborhoods to more affordable places further east, or becoming homeless. That’s the sobering reality of the Bay Area’s housing crisis.