In recent decades, some cities have seen their urban centers lose population density, as residents spread farther out to suburbs and exurbs. Others have kept populous downtowns even as their environs have grown. Population density in general has economic advantages, so one might wonder whether a loss of density, which may be a symptom of negative economic shocks, could amplify those shocks. We look at four decades of census data and show that growing cities have maintained dense urban centers, while shrinking cities have not. There are reasons to think that loss of population density at the core of the city could be particularly damaging to productivity. If this is the case, there could be productivity gains from policies aimed at reversing that trend.

Many African large carnivore populations are declining due to decline of the herbivore populations on which they depend. The densities of apex carnivores like the lion and spotted hyena correlate strongly with prey density, but competitive subordinates like the African wild dog benefit from competitive release when the density of apex carnivores is low, so the expected effect of a simultaneous decrease in resources and dominant competitors is not obvious. Wild dogs in Zambia’s Luangwa Valley Ecosystem occupy four ecologically similar areas with well-described differences in the densities of prey and dominant competitors, due to spatial variation in illegal offtake. We used long-term data to fit a Bayesian integrated population model (IPM) of the demography and dynamics of wild dogs in these four regions. The IPM used Leslie projection to link a Cormack-Jolly-Seber model of area-specific survival (allowing for individual heterogeneity in detection), a zero-inflated Poisson model of area-specific fecundity, and a state-space model of population size that used estimates from a closed mark-capture model as the counts from which (latent) population size was estimated. The IPM showed that both survival and reproduction were lowest in the region with the lowest density of preferred prey (puku, Kobus vardonii, and impala, Aepyceros melampus), despite little use of this area by lions. Survival and reproduction were highest in the region with the highest prey density, and intermediate in the two regions with intermediate prey density. The population growth rate (λ) was positive for the population as a whole, strongly positive in the region with the highest prey density, and strongly negative in the region with the lowest prey density. It has long been thought that the benefits of competitive release protect African wild dogs from the costs of low prey density. Our results show that the costs of prey depletion overwhelm the benefits of competitive release and cause local population decline where anthropogenic prey depletion is strong. Because competition is important in many guilds and humans are affecting resources of many types, it is likely that similarly fundamental shifts in population limitation are arising in many systems.

Methods Data on the survival and reproduction of African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) were collected by radiocollaring and direct observation in the Luangwa Valley ecosystem. The raw data were entered into a relational database (MS Access) and exported to CSV files using SQL queries.

The total population of Germany was estimated at over 84.4 million inhabitants in 2025, although it is projected to drop in the coming years and fall below 80 million in 2043. Germany is the most populous country located entirely in Europe, and is third largest when Russia and Turkey are included. Germany's prosperous economy makes it a popular destination for immigrants of all backgrounds, which has kept its population above 80 million for several decades. Population growth and stability has depended on immigration In every year since 1972, Germany has had a higher death rate than its birth rate, meaning its population is in natural decline. However, Germany's population has rarely dropped below its 1972 figure of 78.6 million, and, in fact, peaked at 84.7 million in 2024, all due to its high net immigration rate. Over the past 75 years, the periods that saw the highest population growth rates were; the 1960s, due to the second wave of the post-WWII baby boom; the 1990s, due to post-reunification immigration; and since the 2010s, due to high arrivals of refugees from conflict zones in Afghanistan, Syria, and Ukraine. Does falling population = economic decline? Current projections predict that Germany's population will fall to almost 70 million by the next century. Germany's fertility rate currently sits around 1.5 births per woman, which is well below the repacement rate of 2.1 births per woman. Population aging and decline present a major challenge economies, as more resources must be invested in elderly care, while the workforce shrinks and there are fewer taxpayers contributing to social security. Countries such as Germany have introduced more generous child benefits and family friendly policies, although these are yet to prove effective in creating a cultural shift. Instead, labor shortages are being combatted via automation and immigration, however, both these solutions are met with resistance among large sections of the population and have become defining political issues of our time.

Conservation resources have become increasingly limited and, along with social, cultural and political complexities, this shortfall frequently challenges effectiveness in conservation. Because conservation can be costly, efforts are often only initiated after a species has declined below a critical threshold and/or when statutory protection is mandated. However, implementing conservation proactively, rather than reactively, is predicted to be less costly and to decrease a species' risk of extinction. Despite these benefits, I document that the number of studies that have implemented proactive conservation around the world are far fewer than those that simply acknowledge the need for such action. I provide examples of proactive actions that can ameliorate shortfalls in funding and other assets, thus helping conservation practitioners and managers cope with the constraints that resource limitation imposes. Not all of these options are new; however, the timing of their implementation is critical for effective conservation, and the need for more proactive conservation is increasingly recognized. These actions are (1) strengthening and diversifying stakeholder involvement in conservation projects; (2) complementing time-consuming and labor-intensive demographic studies with alternative approaches of detecting declines and estimating extinction risk; and (3) minimizing future costly conservation and management by proactively keeping common species common. These approaches may not constitute a cure-all for every conservation crisis. However, given escalating rates of species' losses, perhaps a reminder that these proactive actions can reduce conservation costs, save time, and potentially thwart population declines is warranted.

Aim: Habitat loss and climate change constitute two of the greatest threats to biodiversity worldwide, and theory predicts that these factors may act synergistically to affect population trajectories. Recent evidence indicates that structurally complex old-growth forest can be cooler than other forest types during spring and summer months, thereby offering potential to buffer populations from negative effects of warming. Old growth may also have higher food and nest-site availability for certain species, which could have disproportionate fitness benefits as species approach their thermal limits. Location: Pacific Northwestern United States. Methods: We predicted that negative effects of climate change on 30-year population trends of old-growth-associated birds should be dampened in landscapes with high proportions of old-growth forest. We modelled population trends from Breeding Bird Survey data for 13 species as a function of temperature change and proportion old-growth forest. Results: We found a significant negative effect of summer warming on only two species. However, in both of these species, this relationship between warming and population decline was not only reduced but reversed, in old-growth-dominated landscapes. Across all 13 species, evidence for a buffering effect of old-growth forest increased with the degree to which species were negatively influenced by summer warming. Main conclusions: These findings suggest that old-growth forests may buffer the negative effects of climate change for those species that are most sensitive to temperature increases. Our study highlights a mechanism whereby management strategies to curb degradation and loss of old-growth forests—in addition to protecting habitat—could enhance biodiversity persistence in the face of climate warming.

1. Population decline is associated with increased vulnerability to extinction, but also with possible density-, frequency-, or distance-related ‘rarity advantages’ that increase recruitment success as individuals become isolated from their congeners. Distinguishing between these alternatives (risk versus recovery of rare populations via demographic processes) has become critical, given how anthropogenic disturbances are causing population declines globally. 2. Here, we demonstrate how distance-related rarity advantages are evident in spatially isolated recruits of a canopy-dominant but regionally rare species of oak that appears to be suffering recruitment collapse. As distance from parent trees increased, seedlings had significantly more leaves and experienced reduced insect browsing and intraspecific competition. Long-term field-based experimental treatments revealed these advantages to be associated with rapid rates of juvenile maturation and survival that are unobserved in natural settings. 3. The discrepancy between the experimental and natural settings was explained by trophic collapse and habitat loss - two changes ubiquitous to many terrestrial ecosystems – that combine to concentrate vertebrate herbivores in habitat remnants and cause 100% juvenile mortality via the browsing of taller juveniles. Exotic grass cover, long associated with oak recruitment failure, significantly suppressed seedling height and leaf production, but appeared to delay mortality by hiding shorter seedlings from vertebrate herbivores. 4. Synthesis. Our work demonstrates how rarity advantages have the potential to positively influence the population performance of a declining species, but are short-circuited by intense herbivory associated with human-based environmental change. Regionally, there appear to be few existing conditions on the contemporary landscape that favor juvenile survival, suggesting ongoing recruitment difficulties without intervention. Our work clarifies how extinction risk can in some cases be best defined by how anthropogenic disturbances affect, and are offset by, demographic-based persistence mechanisms, than simply by present-day abundance or distribution.

Physiological responses to transient conditions may result in costly responses with little fitness benefits, and therefore, a trade-off must exist between the speed of response and the duration of exposure to new conditions. Here, using the puparia of an important insect disease vector, Glossina pallidipes, we examine this potential trade-off using a novel combination of an experimental approach and a population dynamics model. Specifically, we explore and dissect the interactions between plastic physiological responses, treatment-duration and -intensity using an experimental approach. We then integrate these experimental results from organismal water-balance data and their plastic responses into a population dynamics model to examine the potential relative fitness effects of simulated transient weather conditions on population growth rates. The results show evidence for the predicted trade-off for plasticity of water loss rate (WLR) and the duration of new environmental conditions. When altered environmental conditions lasted for longer durations, physiological responses could match the new environmental conditions, and this resulted in a lower WLR and lower rates of population decline. At shorter time-scales however, a mismatch between acclimation duration and physiological responses was reflected by reduced overall population growth rates. This may indicate a potential fitness cost due to insufficient time for physiological adjustments to take place. The outcomes of this work therefore suggest plastic water balance responses have both costs and benefits, and these depend on the time-scale and magnitude of variation in environmental conditions. These results are significant for understanding the evolution of plastic physiological responses and changes in population abundance in the context of environmental variability.

Globally, many species are threatened by population decline because of anthropogenic changes leading to population fragmentation, genetic isolation, and inbreeding depression. Genetic rescue, the controlled introduction of genetic variation, is a method used to relieve such effects in small populations. However, without understanding how the characteristics of rescuers impact rescue attempts interventions run the risk of being sub-optimal, or even counterproductive. We use the Red Flour Beetle (Tribolium castaneum) to test the impact of rescuer sex, and sexual selection background, on population productivity. We record the impact of genetic rescue on population productivity in 24 and 36 replicated populations for ten generations following intervention. We find little or no impact of rescuer sex on the efficacy of rescue but show that a background of elevated sexual selection makes individuals more effective rescuers. In both experiments, rescue effects diminish 6-10 generations after th..., Husbandry T. castaneum were kept in a controlled environment at 30°C and 60% humidity with a 12:12 light-dark cycle. Populations were kept on standard fodder consisting of 90% organic white flour, 10% brewer’s yeast and a layer of oats for traction unless otherwise stated. During the husbandry cycle, 2mm and 850µm sieves were used to remove pupae and adults from fodder. The following cycle was started by a set number of adults (line dependent, see below) being placed into containers with fresh standard fodder. The oviposition phase: populations were given seven days to mate and lay eggs before adults were removed by sieving to prevent overlapping generations. The fodder containing eggs was returned to the container. The development phase: eggs were kept in the containers for 35 days to allow the eggs to develop into mature adults. Around day 21 of the development phase, pupae were collected to obtain known-sex virgin individuals which were then used to start the next generation. The pup..., , # Sexual selection matters in genetic rescue, but productivity benefits fade over time: A multi-generation experiment to inform conservation

https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.g1jwstr1f

Description of the data and file structure

Test of sex and, sexual selection background, of genetic rescuers on the fitness of an inbred population.

Null entries in the data sets were not included in that or any future generations.

Abbreviations

KSS - Krakow Super Strain, Outbred ancestral population.

C - Control treatment, Inbred populations that received no rescue.

F - Female rescue treatment, Inbred populations that received rescue by a female KSS.

M - Male rescue treatment, Inbred populations that received rescue by a male KSS.

Control -Â Control treatment, Inbred populations that received no rescue.

Mo - Monogamy rescue treatment, Inbred populations that received rescue by a monogamous beetle.

Po - Polyandry rescue treatment, Inbred populations...

Effective management of widespread invasive species such as wild pigs (Sus scrofa) is limited by resources available to devote to the effort. Better insight of the effectiveness of different management strategies on population dynamics is important for guiding decisions of resource allocation over space and time. Using a dynamic population model, we quantified effects of culling intensities and time between culling events on population dynamics of wild pigs in the USA using empirical culling patterns and data-based demographic parameters. In simulated populations closed to immigration, substantial population declines (50–100%) occurred within 4 years when 20–60% of the population was culled annually, but when immigration from surrounding areas occurred, there was a maximum of 50% reduction, even with the maximum culling intensity of 60%. Incorporating hypothetical levels of fertility control with realistic culling intensities was most effective in reducing populations when they were closed to immigration and when intrinsic population growth rate was too high (> = 1.78) to be controlled by culling alone. However, substantial benefits from fertility control used in conjunction with culling may only occur over a narrow range of net population growth rates (i.e., where net is the result of intrinsic growth rates and culling) that varies depending on intrinsic population growth rate. The management implications are that the decision to use fertility control in conjunction with culling should rely on concurrent consideration of achievable culling intensity, underlying demographic parameters, and costs of culling and fertility control. The addition of fertility control reduced abundance substantially more than culling alone, however the effects of fertility control were weaker than in populations without immigration. Because these populations were not being reduced substantially by culling alone, fertility control could be an especially helpful enhancement to culling for reducing abundance to target levels in areas where immigration can’t be prevented.

The fertility rates have fallen in all five Nordic countries over the last years. However, in 2021, the birth rates increased again in all five Nordics countries, besides in Sweden, where the fertility rate stayed the same. This can be explained by the higher number of babies born during the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2022, Iceland had the highest fertility rate of the Nordic countries, with *** children born per woman in reproductive age. The global trend of decreasing fertility The Nordics are not the only region with decreasing fertility rates. Globally, fertility rates have been on a steady decline since 2000. While lower-income countries have had more significant declines, they still have more children born per woman than higher-income countries. In 2000, almost * children were born per woman in low-income countries, decreasing to **** in 2021. By comparison, nearly **** children were born per woman in high-income countries, falling slightly to **** by 2021. Overall, in 2023, Niger, Angola, and the Democratic Republic of Congo had the highest fertility rates, while Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore had the lowest fertility rates. Impacts of low fertility Greater access to education, challenges between work-life balance, and the costs of raising children can all be linked to falling fertility rates. However, this decline is not without consequences, and many countries are facing social and economic challenges because of aging and shrinking populations. For example, in Japan, where nearly ** percent of the country is aged 65 or older, an increasing proportion of the government expenditure is going towards social security benefits. Moreover, the very low unemployment rate in Japan can partially be attributed to having a shrinking labor force and fewer people to support the economy.

In 2024, the total population of Taiwan increased to approximately 23.4 million people. The significant drop in 2021 and 2022 was mainly due to people leaving the island during the coronavirus pandemic, while the natural growth rate was also slightly negative. The return of many people in 2023 led to a growth in population. According to national statistics and projections, population numbers entered a general declining path in 2020. Taiwan's demographic development Taiwan experienced rapid population growth in the 1950s and 60s, but alongside with economic development, growth rates decreased significantly. Falling birth figures have also been attributed to Taiwan’s family planning policy, which was aimed at keeping population growth at check. This led to a situation on the island where overall population density was very high and still growing, while the total fertility rate dropped quickly and eventually reached extremely low levels compared internationally. In the 21st century, the challenges of a quickly aging society became more and more apparent and the government initiated family friendly and birth promoting policies. However, fertility still kept on decreasing and reached a historical low in 2010 at 0.9 births per woman on average, and only in recent years has the number of births increased slightly. Implications of an aging society Today's Taiwan, like many East Asian societies, faces the challenges of a rapidly aging population. While the share of the population aged 65 and older accounted to around 18 percent in 2023, it is projected to reach 43 percent in 2060. The old-age dependency ratio, which denotes the relation of people of 65 years and above to the working-age population, is expected to reach around 87 percent in those years. This puts heavy pressure on the working people and the economy as a whole. However, compared to mainland China, which is in a very much comparable demographic situation, Taiwan enjoys the advantage of a relatively wealthy society, which helps to curb the negative economic effects of an aging population.

In 2025, India overtook China as the world's most populous country and now has almost 1.46 billion people. China now has the second-largest population in the world, still with just over 1.4 billion inhabitants, however, its population went into decline in 2023. Global population As of 2025, the world's population stands at almost 8.2 billion people and is expected to reach around 10.3 billion people in the 2080s, when it will then go into decline. Due to improved healthcare, sanitation, and general living conditions, the global population continues to increase; mortality rates (particularly among infants and children) are decreasing and the median age of the world population has steadily increased for decades. As for the average life expectancy in industrial and developing countries, the gap has narrowed significantly since the mid-20th century. Asia is the most populous continent on Earth; 11 of the 20 largest countries are located there. It leads the ranking of the global population by continent by far, reporting four times as many inhabitants as Africa. The Demographic Transition The population explosion over the past two centuries is part of a phenomenon known as the demographic transition. Simply put, this transition results from a drastic reduction in mortality, which then leads to a reduction in fertility, and increase in life expectancy; this interim period where death rates are low and birth rates are high is where this population explosion occurs, and population growth can remain high as the population ages. In today's most-developed countries, the transition generally began with industrialization in the 1800s, and growth has now stabilized as birth and mortality rates have re-balanced. Across less-developed countries, the stage of this transition varies; for example, China is at a later stage than India, which accounts for the change in which country is more populous - understanding the demographic transition can help understand the reason why China's population is now going into decline. The least-developed region is Sub-Saharan Africa, where fertility rates remain close to pre-industrial levels in some countries. As these countries transition, they will undergo significant rates of population growth.

Monitoring population trends of threatened species requires standardized techniques that can be applied over broad areas and repeated through time. Sun bears Helarctos malayanus are a forest dependent tropical bear found throughout most of Southeast Asia. Previous estimates of global population trends have relied on expert opinion and cannot be systematically replicated. We combined data from 1,463 camera traps within 31 field sites across sun bear range to model the relationship between photo catch rates of sun bears and tree cover. Sun bears were detected in all levels of tree cover above 20%, and the probability of presence was positively associated with the amount of tree cover within a 6-km2 buffer of the camera traps. We used the relationship between catch rates and tree cover across space to infer temporal trends in sun bear abundance in response to tree cover loss at country and global-scales. Our model-based projections based on this “space for time” substitution suggested that sun bear population declines associated with tree cover loss between 2000–2014 in mainland southeast Asia were ~9%, with declines highest in Cambodia and lowest in Myanmar. During the same period, sun bear populations in insular southeast Asia (Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei) were projected to have declined at a much higher rate (22%). Cast forward over 30-years, from the year 2000, by assuming a constant rate of change in tree cover, we projected population declines in the insular region that surpassed 50%, meeting the IUCN criteria for endangered if sun bears were listed on the population level. Although this approach requires several assumptions, most notably that trends in abundance across space can be used to infer temporal trends, population projections using remotely sensed tree cover data may serve as a useful alternative (or supplement) to expert opinion. The advantages of this approach is that it is objective, data-driven, repeatable, and it requires that all assumptions be clearly stated.

Projected core area sage-grouse population declines under short- and long-term development scenarios, with and without conservation actions.

1. Road-side amphibian citizen science programs bring together volunteers focused on collecting scientific data while working to mitigate population declines by directly reducing road mortality of pond-breeding amphibians. Despite the international popularity of these movement-based road-side conservation efforts (i.e., ‘big nights’, ‘bucket brigades’ and ‘toad patrols’), direct benefits to conservation have rarely been quantified or evaluated. 2. As a case study, we used a population simulation approach to evaluate how volunteer intensity, frequency and distribution influence three conservation outcomes (minimum population size, population growth rate, and years to extinction) of the spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum) – a common, focal pond-breeding amphibian of citizen science and conservation programs in the United States. 3. Sensitivity analysis supported the expectation that populations were primarily recruitment-driven. Thus, conservation outcomes were highest when volunteers focused on out-migration of metamorphs as opposed to in-migration of adults –contrary to the typical timing of such volunteer events. 4. Almost every volunteer strategy resulted in increased conservation outcomes compared to a no-volunteer strategy. Specifically, volunteer frequency during metamorph migration increased outcomes more than the same increases in volunteer effort during adult migration. Small population sizes resulted in a negligible effect of volunteer intensity. Volunteers during the first adult in-migration had a relatively small effect compared to most other strategies. 5. Synthesis and applications. Although citizen science focused conservation actions could directly benefit declining populations, other conservation measures are additionally needed to halt or reverse local amphibian declines. This study demonstrates a need to evaluate the effectiveness of focusing citizen science mitigation efforts on the metamorph stage, as opposed the adult stage, which may be challenging, compared to other management actions such as road-crossing infrastructure. Current amphibian citizen science programs will be challenged to balance implementing evidence-based conservation measures on the most limiting life stage while retaining the social and community benefits to volunteers.

Microbiomes can dramatically alter individual plant performance, yet how these effects influence higher order processes is not well resolved. In particular, little is known about how microbiome effects on individual plants alter plant population dynamics, a question critical to imperiled species conservation. Here, we integrate bioassays, multidecadal demographic data, and integral projection modeling to determine how the presence of the natural soil microbiome underlies plant population dynamics. Simulations indicated that the presence of soil microbiomes boosted population growth rates (λ) of the endangered Hypericum cumulicola by 13% on average, the difference between population growth versus decline in 76% of patches. The greatest benefit (47% increase in λ) occurred in low nutrient, high elevation habitats, suggesting that the soil microbiome may help expand H. cumulicola's distribution to include these stressful habitats. Our results demonstrate that soil microbiomes can significantly affect plant population growth and persistence, and support the incorporation of soil microbiomes into conservation planning. plant population growth and persistence, and support the incorporation of soil microbiomes into conservation planning.

Although matrix improvement in fragmented landscapes is a promising conservation measure, matrix permeability (willingness of an organism to enter the matrix) and movement survival in the matrix are usually aggregated. Consequently, it is unknown which matrix property needs to be improved. It also remains unclear whether matrix upgrading from dispersal passage to providing reproduction opportunities has large conservation benefits and whether there are interactive effects between habitat and matrix management. We examined matrix effects on regional populations across a gradient of habitat loss and fragmentation using simulation experiments that integrated demographic processes and movement modeling based on circuit theory. We separately modified the levels of matrix permeability and movement survival to evaluate their individual effects. We also altered the amount and configuration of not only habitat but also improved matrix to assess their effects on population vital rates (size, surv...

At the beginning of the 19th century, the area of modern-day Italy, at the time a collection of various states and kingdoms, was estimated to have a population of nineteen million, a figure which would grow steadily throughout the century, and by the establishment of the Kingdom of Italy in 1861, the population would rise to just over 26 million.

Italy’s population would see its first major disruption during the First World War, as Italy would join the Allied Forces in their fight against Austria-Hungary and Germany. In the First World War, Italy’s population would largely stagnate at 36 million, only climbing again following the end of the war in 1920. While Italy would also play a prominent role in the Second World War, as the National Fascist Party-led country would fight alongside Germany against the Allies, Italian fatalities from the war would not represent a significant percentage of Italy’s population compared to other European countries in the conflict. As a result, Italy would exit the Second World War with a population of just over 45 million.

From this point onwards the Italian economy started to recover from the war, and eventually boomed, leading to increased employment and standards of living, which facilitated steady population growth until the mid-1980s, when falling fertility and birth rates would cause growth to largely cease. From this point onward, the Italian population would remain at just over 57 million, until the 2000s when it began growing again due to an influx of migrants, peaking in 2017 at just over 60 million people. In the late 2010s, however, the Italian population began declining again, as immigration slowed and the economy weakened. As a result, in 2020, Italy is estimated to have fallen to a population of 59 million.

In 2020, after the introduction of various social benefit programs during the COVID-19 pandemic, there was an overall decrease in the unbanked population throughout Latin America. Brazil exhibited the largest change, with a significant decrease of ** percent. Although experiencing less change, the trend remained true for Argentina and Colombia, with a reduction of ** percent and ***** percent, respectively.

Large carnivores are negotiating increasingly developed landscapes, but little is known about how such behavioral plasticity influences their demographic rates and population trends. Some investigators have suggested that the ability of carnivores to behaviorally adapt to human development will enable their persistence, and yet, others have suggested that such landscapes are likely to serve as population sinks or ecological traps. To understand how plasticity in black bear (Ursus americanus) use of residential development influences their population dynamics, we conducted a 6 year study near Durango, Colorado, USA. Using space-use data on individual bears, we examined the influence of use of residential development on annual measures of bear body fat, cub productivity, cub survival and adult female survival, after accounting for variation in natural food availability and individual attributes (e.g., age). We then used our field-based vital rate estimates to parameterize a matrix model that simulated asymptotic population growth for bears using residential development to different degrees. We found that bear use of residential development was highly variable within and across years, with bears increasing their foraging within development when natural foods were scarce. Increased bear use of development was associated with increased body fat and cub productivity, but reduced cub and adult survival. When these effects were simultaneously incorporated into a matrix model we found that the population was projected to decline as bear use of development increased, given that the costs of reduced survival outweighed the benefits of enhanced productivity. Our results provide a mechanistic understanding of how black bear use of residential development exerts opposing effects on different bear fitness traits and a negative effect on population growth, with the magnitude of those effects mediated by variation in environmental conditions. They also highlight the importance of monitoring bear population dynamics, particularly as shifts in bear behavior are likely to drive increases in human-bear conflicts and the perception of growing bear populations. Finally, our work emphasizes the need to consider the demographic viability of large carnivore populations when promoting the coexistence of people and carnivores on shared landscapes.