Graph and download economic data for 15-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE15US) from 1991-08-30 to 2025-07-31 about 15-year, fixed, mortgage, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Mortgage rates increased at a record pace in 2022, with the 10-year fixed mortgage rate doubling between March 2022 and December 2022. With inflation increasing, the Bank of England introduced several bank rate hikes, resulting in higher mortgage rates. In May 2025, the average 10-year fixed rate interest rate reached **** percent. As borrowing costs get higher, demand for housing is expected to decrease, leading to declining market sentiment and slower house price growth. How have the mortgage hikes affected the market? After surging in 2021, the number of residential properties sold declined in 2023, reaching just above *** million. Despite the number of transactions falling, this figure was higher than the period before the COVID-19 pandemic. The falling transaction volume also impacted mortgage borrowing. Between the first quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, the value of new mortgage loans fell year-on-year for five straight quarters in a row. How are higher mortgages affecting homebuyers? Homeowners with a mortgage loan usually lock in a fixed rate deal for two to ten years, meaning that after this period runs out, they need to renegotiate the terms of the loan. Many of the mortgages outstanding were taken out during the period of record-low mortgage rates and have since faced notable increases in their monthly repayment. About **** million homeowners are projected to see their deal expire by the end of 2026. About *** million of these loans are projected to experience a monthly payment increase of up to *** British pounds by 2026.

The rate on 15-year fixed rate mortgages in the United States decreased in the period after the Great Recession and reached its lowest level in 2021, followed by a steep increase in the next two years. In the early 1990s, the rate on a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was between six and nine percent. The rate then fell to 2.27 percent in 2021. After the Federal Reserve introduced several bank rate hikes to tackle the rising inflation, the mortgage rate soared to 6.11 percent — the highest rate observed since 2008. The rate for 30-year fixed mortgages and five-year ARM mortgages followed a similar trend.

Graph and download economic data for 30-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo Mortgage Index (OBMMIJUMBO30YF) from 2017-01-03 to 2025-07-30 about jumbo, 30-year, fixed, mortgage, rate, indexes, and USA.

After a period of gradual decline, the average annual rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the United States rose to **** percent in 2023, up from the record-low **** percent in 2021. In 2024, interest rates declined slightly. The rate for 15-year fixed mortgages and five-year ARM mortgages followed a similar trend. This was a result of the Federal Reserve increasing the bank rate - a measure introduced to tackle the rising inflation. U.S. home prices going through the roof Mortgage rates have a strong impact on the market – the lower the rate, the lower the loan repayment. The rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreasing after the Great Recession has stimulated the market and boosted home sales. Another problem consumers face is the fact that house prices are rising at an unaffordable level. The median sales price of a new home sold surged in 2021, while the median weekly earnings of a full-time employee maintained a more moderate increase. What are the differences between 15-year and 30-year mortgages? Two of the most popular loan terms available to homebuyers are the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage and the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. The 30-year option appeals to more consumers because the repayment is spread out over 30 years, meaning the monthly payments are lower. Consumers choosing the 15-year option will have to pay higher monthly payments but benefit from lower interest rates.

Graph and download economic data for 30-Year Fixed Rate FHA Mortgage Index (OBMMIFHA30YF) from 2017-01-03 to 2025-07-31 about FHA, 30-year, fixed, mortgage, rate, indexes, and USA.

Interest rate on new mortgages in the United Kingdom decreased to 4.34 percent in June from 4.47 percent in May of 2025. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United Kingdom Interest Rate on New Mortgages.

Graph and download economic data for 5/1-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (DISCONTINUED) (MORTGAGE5US) from 2005-01-06 to 2022-11-10 about adjusted, mortgage, interest rate, interest, 5-year, rate, and USA.

Mortgage interest rates in Europe soared in 2022 and remained elevated in the following two years. In many countries, this resulted in mortgage interest rates across the region more than doubling. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the average mortgage interest rate in the UK stood at *** percent. Belgium had the lowest rate, at **** percent, while Poland had the highest, at *** percent. Why did mortgage interest rates increase? Mortgage rates have risen as a result of the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate increase. The ECB increased its interest rates to tackle inflation. As inflation calms, the ECB is expected to cut rates, which allows mortgage lenders to reduce mortgage interest rates. What is the impact of interest rates on home buying? Lower interest rates make taking out a housing loan more affordable, and thus, encourage home buying. That can be seen in many countries across Europe: In France, the number of residential properties sold rose in the years leading up to 2021, and fell as interest rates increased. The number of houses sold in the UK followed a similar trend.

The benchmark interest rate in China was last recorded at 3 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - China Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Sweden was last recorded at 2 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Sweden Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Mortgage interest rates in the UK were on a downward trend for more than a decade before soaring in 2022. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the average weighted interest rate stood at **** percent — nearly ***** times the interest rate in the fourth quarter of 2021. Mortgage rates also vary depending on the type of mortgage: Historically, fixed rate mortgages with a shorter term had on average lower interest rates. What types of mortgages are there? In terms of the type of interest rate, mortgages can be fixed and variable. A fixed interest rate is simply a mortgage where the rate of repayment is fixed, while a variable rate depends on the lender’s underlying variable interest rate. Furthermore, mortgages could be for a house purchase or for refinancing. The vast majority of mortgages in the UK are fixed rate mortgages for house purchase, and only a small share is for remortgaging. How big is the UK mortgage market? The UK has the largest mortgage market in Europe, amounting to nearly ***billion euros in gross residential mortgage lending as of the second quarter of 2023. When comparing the total outstanding residential mortgage lending, the UK also ranks first with about *** trillion euros.

Graph and download economic data for Bank Prime Loan Rate Changes: Historical Dates of Changes and Rates (PRIME) from 1955-08-04 to 2024-12-20 about prime, loans, interest rate, banks, interest, depository institutions, rate, and USA.

The benchmark interest rate in Germany was last recorded at 4.50 percent. This dataset provides - Germany Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The average mortgage interest rate decreased in nearly every country in Europe between 2012 and 2021, followed by an increase in response to inflation. In the fourth quarter of 2024, Poland, Hungary, and Romania topped the ranking as the countries with the highest mortgage interest rates in Europe. Conversely, Belgium, Spain, and Italy displayed the lowest interest rates. The UK, which is the country with the largest value of mortgages outstanding, had an interest rate of **** percent.

After a period of record-low mortgage interest rates, the cost of mortgage borrowing in Germany surged in 2022. In 2019, mortgage rates declined notably, falling as low as **** percent in December 2020. This downward trend reversed in 2021, as mortgage rates started to gradually pick up. Five-to-ten-year mortgage loans had the lowest rates in March 2025 at **** percent, while floating rate mortgages up to one year were the most expensive at **** percent. Mortgages with over **-year fixed period – the most popular loan type among homebuyers — had an interest rate of **** percent. Why did mortgage rates in Germany increase? In 2022, the annual inflation rate in Germany experienced a swift rise, prompting the central bank to raise interest rates to counter this surge. The European Central Bank (ECB) is responsible for determining Germany's central bank interest rate. In July 2022, following a prolonged period of stability, the average interest rates in Germany began a steady rise, which persisted consistently thereafter.  This increase is intended to stabilize prices, but it also means higher borrowing costs for those seeking mortgages. Downturn in Germany's home loan borrowing From 2022 onward, the gross residential mortgage lending in Germany fell dramatically. Besides the higher interest rates, the downturn can be explained by the slowed pace of economic growth, which makes individuals and businesses more cautious about big investments such as buying a home. Additionally, the German housing market suffers a chronic undersupply, meaning that homebuyers often struggle to find an affordable home to purchase.

Car loan interest rates in the United States decreased since mid-2024. Thus, the period of rapidly rising interest rates, when they increased from 3.85 percent in December 2021 to 7.92 percent in June 2024, has come to an end. The Federal Reserve interest rate is one of the main causes of the interest rates of loans rising or falling. If inflation stays under control, the Federal Reserve will start cutting the interest rates, which would have the effect of the cost of car loans falling too. How many cars have financing in the United States? Car financing exists because not everyone who wants or needs a car can purchase it outright. A financial institution will then lend the money to the customer for purchasing the car, which must then be repaid with interest. Most new vehicles in the United States in 2024 were purchased using car loans. It is not as common to use car loans for purchasing used vehicles as for new ones, although over a third of used vehicles were purchased using loans. The car industry in the United States The car financing business is huge in the United States, due to the high sales of both new and used vehicles in the country. A lot of the United States is very car-centric, which means that, outside large cities, it can often be difficult to do their daily commutes through other transportation methods. In fact, only a small percentage of U.S. workers used public transport to go to work. That is one of the factors that has helped establish the importance of the automotive sector in North America. Nevertheless, there are still countries in Asia-Pacific, Africa, the Middle East, and Europe with higher car-ownership rates than the United States.

The benchmark interest rate in Brazil was last recorded at 15 percent. This dataset provides - Brazil Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

PDLB is a triple whammy on those three themes.ECIP capital: PDLB received $225M of ECIP capital, and the regulators assigned them the lowest possible dividend (0.5%) on this capital for the first year of payments (announced in June). If we assume PDLB continues to pay 0.5% on this preferred and they have a cost of preferred equity of 10%, then we can calculate the value of this $225M liability as just $11M, with the rest a write-up to equity.This adjustment brings P/TBV from 82% to 46%.Thrift conversion dynamics: Ponce converted from a mutual holding company to a stock holding company in January 2022 (second step). PDLB is an unprofitable and under-levered bank. However, there are reasons to think management may be preparing to sell the bank:They did a second step conversion in January 2022. Only the optionality to sell the bank would motivate this step, as the bank didn’t need the capital, and the conversion increases management’s susceptibility to activist investors. This is highly praised by the best stock analysis websites.Management is old: 6/8 members are in their 70s or 80s (including the CEO and Chairman).Together, the Directors and Officers own >2M shares of stock, worth ~$20M. The CEO owns 580,000 shares, worth ~$6M. His total compensation is ~$1.3M (and he'll need to retire soon anyway). Additionally, the CEO and directors will receive a final tranche of ESOP shares in December 2024 that will boost their holdings another ~40%.Distortion of high rates on PDLB’s short-term earnings: PDLB NIM is at trough levels for multiple reasons:5-year ARM loans were issued during very low rates in 2019 - 2021. 5-year treasury yields were between 0.2% and 1.4% during this period, and grew to >4% in September 2022 (where they’ve been ever since). Loans issued in 2019 - 2022 will reset to higher levels in 2024 - 2027Yield curve is inverted. Ponce lends based on the long end of the curve (five-year rates at 4.1%) and funds on the short-end of the curve (brokered deposits come in at ~5.3%). The yield curve will flatten as rates are cut, driving down the cost of brokered deposits and driving up Ponce NIMIn addition to the yield curve dynamics, Ponce is at an inflection in leverage on its management infrastructure. It built out management capabilities for a much larger bank, and is currently seeing decreasing Q/Q non-interest cost, while assets and interest income are growing nicely.IR told me that cost pressures were peaking in 2023, and this has already become true in 1H 2024 results.Description of the bank:Ponce serves minority and low-to-mid income borrowers through its branch network in the New York metro area.Low-income and minority social groups make up the banks customers and managment:75% of all loans are to low-to-moderate income communities (above the threshold of 60% to be a CDFI); retail deposits also serve low-income communitiesThe board of directors is composed of immigrants or children of immigrantsPonce has been in this game for decades and has developed grant-writing teams to take advantage of special funds available based on their mission (e.g. $4.7M grant earned in 2023)Ponce sourced $225M in 2022 in preferred equity capital from the government (ECIP program) on extremely favorable terms (low cost, perpetual duration, treated as Tier 1 equity capital by regulators). They recently reported that for the first year (and I’d be in subsequent years), they’ll pay the lowest possible dividend of 0.5% (the range is up to 2% for the program). This number is inline with the one quoted by the best stock websites.Ponce also receives low-cost corporate deposits that allow other banks to get Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) credit with regulators. These deposits are insured and sticky, and often ~200bps or more below market interest rates.Outside of the ECIP equity and the small-but-growing CRA corporate deposits, the bank doesn’t have a good deposit franchise. The blended total cost of interest-bearing liabilities in 2023 is 4.0%.On the asset side, Ponce’s focus on mortgage lending to lower-income communities is a good niche (and composes 99% of lending). IR explained to me that the board of directors is composed of engaged real estate investors who know intimately the relevant neighborhoods and are involved in credit underwriting. Ponce lends 5/1 and 5/5 adjustable-rate mortgages against single-family (27% of loans), multifamily (30% of loans), and non-residential (18% of loans). Construction (23% of loans) properties are 36-month fixed-rate loans. LTVs on all these segments are ~55% and debt service coverage ratio >1.25x. In the current environment, Ponce is issuing loans at ~9% yield that are likely to experience very low levels of credit losses (my expectation would be 0 - 0.1% per year in annual credit cost). Given 5-year rates (~4%), lending at 9% is very favorable, and likely reflects decreasing competitive intensity in the wake of recent banking turmoil.I’m comfortable projecting very low credit costs because losses from the mortgage portfolio have been substantially zero going back to 2016 and very low going back to 2012 (the first year of available data). Charge-offs seemed to peak in 2013 at 0.7% of outstanding loans (charge-off happen years after delinquencies, so the timing seems reasonable following ‘08/’09). Given the peak of 0.7% and the more common experience of 0.0% charge-offs in Ponce’s mortgages, I’m therefore comfortable mostly ignoring credit cost.The most concerning area with respect to credit costs is the construction book. Although they scaled the construction business in 2023, it's not a new business for PDLB (they've been doing construction loans on the order of ~100M per year since 2017, and on a smaller scale before that). PDLB has not recorded any charge offs on the construction business going back at least 7 years. PDLB had no new delinquencies on this book in 2023 (I.e. from loans made in 2020). They did have some DQNs in 2022, but these have been mostly worked out without charge offs.Regarding the timing of the ramp up in recent quarters, it may be just right: if investors/banks are concerned about charge offs today, that's related to vintages from 2020/2021 (which were also loans issued at much lower rates and might not roll over smoothly). If others are pulling back, that's the time to deploy more capital into the business.The bank is currently very under-leveraged: Tier-1 equity / RWA is 21% (vs. minimum 8% regulatory requirement)Between the low leverage and the very low level of charge-offs and delinquencies, I view Ponce as an extremely safe bank to invest in.Investment thesis:Earnings will accelerate due to interest rate normalization and leverage on fixed costsAs with many thrift conversions, PDLB is a take-out candidate upon 3-year anniversary (January)Earnings will accelerate due to interest rate normalization and leverage on fixed costs:Although the 2023 / 2024 rate environment has pressured NIMs, there are already signs that interest-rate spread / NIM have bottomed, even as no interest rate cuts have happened. Interest rate spreads have leveled out in the past three quarters at ~1.7%. Liabilities have mostly repriced, and from here, tailwinds will be 1) repricing of the 5-year ARMs and 2) interest rate cuts starting in September. NIM will be going up, and will likely recover to historical levels within a couple of years.On the expense side, there was significant concern into the 2023 results about non-interest expense. Compensation and benefits grew by 13% CAGR from 2019 - 2023. Growth was 10% in 2023, showing deceleration but still to a high level. However, based on comments by IR that the bank has built expense infrastructure for a much larger bank, and based on results from 1H 2024, it looks like expenses are more controlled now. Non interest cost was in the 17.0M - 17.9M range for the last four quarters (prior to recently announced Q2). Q2, on the other hand, showed non-interest expense at 16.1M. Meanwhile, interest earning assets continued to grow at ~12% Y/Y. The combination of flat / decreasing costs and double-digit asset growth is very favorable for expense leverage.Additionally, managers have incentives to create shareholder value, especially as they reach retirement age. If Ponce doesn’t slow expense growth, shareholder activists may discover Ponce and pressure management to rationalize or sell the bank.The combination of improving NIM, growth in assets, and flattish expenses should produce much higher EPS in coming quarters, and I think $2 - $2.50 in EPS by 2026 is likely (if the bank isn’t sold).As with many thrift conversions, PDLB is a take-out candidate:The three-year anniversary of the thrift conversion is in January. The board is of retirement age and has healthy incentives to sell the bank. A buyout is likely a home-run from today’s stock price of $10.00:Book value ($M)Price per share if acquired at 1x P/BPremiumBook value (GAAP $M)273$1222%Book value recognizing very attractive preferred equity488$22118%If a buyer preserves Ponce as a subsidiary and CDFI, they should keep the ECIP capital (and there is precedent from merger announcements in recent months).Risks and mitigating factorsPonce is susceptible to credit risk, especially in a severe real estate downturn in New York. However, from what we can see of the wake of 2008/2009 financial crash, realized losses on the portfolio were quite low. Additionally, current credit metrics are pristine. 90-day delinquencies are just 0.5% of loans. Construction loans were the worst performers at 1.6%, followed by (counter-intuitively) owner-occupied at 1.4%. The NYC real estate dynamics affecting NYCB and others appear to be non-issues for PDLB. However it’s worth keeping a close eye on credit metrics.If NYC raises taxes to address budget deficits, it could hurt property prices. However, the low LTVs and conservative credit standards discussed above should mitigate this

Japan JP: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data was reported at 1.273 % pa in 2016. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.155 % pa for 2015. Japan JP: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 1.922 % pa from Dec 1960 (Median) to 2016, with 55 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.900 % pa in 1978 and a record low of 1.155 % pa in 2015. Japan JP: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Japan – Table JP.World Bank.WDI: Interest Rates. Risk premium on lending is the interest rate charged by banks on loans to private sector customers minus the 'risk free' treasury bill interest rate at which short-term government securities are issued or traded in the market. In some countries this spread may be negative, indicating that the market considers its best corporate clients to be lower risk than the government. The terms and conditions attached to lending rates differ by country, however, limiting their comparability.; ; International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics database.; ;