In 2023, there were around *** live births per 1,000 inhabitants in Japan, down from about *** in the previous year. The total number of live births in the nation amounted to approximately ******* in 2023. Japan’s super aging society Directly after the end of WWII, the live birth rate in Japan was over ** per 1,000 of population. The rate has constantly dropped in the last decades after the second baby boom (between 1971 and 1974). Meanwhile, the life expectancy of the Japanese people has increased, reaching about **** years for women and **** years for men in 2022. Due to the combination of both factors, Japan has developed into one of the most rapidly aging societies in the world. Almost ** percent of Japan’s population is currently aged 65 years and older, falling into the “super-aged nation” defined by international institutions and organizations.  Decreasing number of marriages In Japan, the number of births outside of marriage is small. The Japanese government, therefore, considers the decreasing number of marriages as the driving factor behind the country’s fertility decline. As of 2023, the number of marriages per 1,000 Japanese citizens was ***, less than half compared to that in the early *****. The average age of first marriage has also risen for both men and women. This trend can be partially attributed to the increasing number of employed and therefore financially and socially independent women in the past two decades. The employment rate of women in Japan exceeded ** percent for the first time in history in ****.

Today, globally, women of childbearing age have an average of approximately 2.2 children over the course of their lifetime. In pre-industrial times, most women could expect to have somewhere between five and ten live births throughout their lifetime; however, the demographic transition then sees fertility rates fall significantly. Looking ahead, it is believed that the global fertility rate will fall below replacement level in the 2050s, which will eventually lead to population decline when life expectancy plateaus. Recent decades Between the 1950s and 1970s, the global fertility rate was roughly five children per woman - this was partly due to the post-WWII baby boom in many countries, on top of already-high rates in less-developed countries. The drop around 1960 can be attributed to China's "Great Leap Forward", where famine and disease in the world's most populous country saw the global fertility rate drop by roughly 0.5 children per woman. Between the 1970s and today, fertility rates fell consistently, although the rate of decline noticeably slowed as the baby boomer generation then began having their own children. Replacement level fertility Replacement level fertility, i.e. the number of children born per woman that a population needs for long-term stability, is approximately 2.1 children per woman. Populations may continue to grow naturally despite below-replacement level fertility, due to reduced mortality and increased life expectancy, however, these will plateau with time and then population decline will occur. It is believed that the global fertility rate will drop below replacement level in the mid-2050s, although improvements in healthcare and living standards will see population growth continue into the 2080s when the global population will then start falling.

For most of the past two centuries, falling birth rates have been associated with societal progress. During the demographic transition, where pre-industrial societies modernize in terms of fertility and mortality, falling death rates, especially among infants and children, are the first major change. In response, as more children survive into adulthood, women have fewer children as the need to compensate for child mortality declines. This transition has happened at different times across the world and is an ongoing process, with early industrial countries being the first to transition, and Sub-Saharan African countries being the most recent to do so. Additionally, some Asian countries (particularly China through government policy) have gone through their demographic transitions at a much faster pace than those deemed more developed. Today, in countries such as Japan, Italy, and Germany, birth rates have fallen well below death rates; this is no longer considered a positive demographic trend, as it leads to natural population decline, and may create an over-aged population that could place a burden on healthcare systems.

While the standard image of the nuclear family with two parents and 2.5 children has persisted in the American imagination, the number of births in the U.S. has steadily been decreasing since 1990, with about 3.6 million babies born in 2023. In 1990, this figure was 4.16 million. Birth and replacement rates A country’s birth rate is defined as the number of live births per 1,000 inhabitants, and it is this particularly important number that has been decreasing over the past few decades. The declining birth rate is not solely an American problem, with EU member states showing comparable rates to the U.S. Additionally, each country has what is called a “replacement rate.” The replacement rate is the rate of fertility needed to keep a population stable when compared with the death rate. In the U.S., the fertility rate needed to keep the population stable is around 2.1 children per woman, but this figure was at 1.67 in 2022. Falling birth rates Currently, there is much discussion as to what exactly is causing the birth rate to decrease in the United States. There seem to be several factors in play, including longer life expectancies, financial concerns (such as the economic crisis of 2008), and an increased focus on careers, all of which are causing people to wait longer to start a family. How international governments will handle falling populations remains to be seen, but what is clear is that the declining birth rate is a multifaceted problem without an easy solution.

Crude birth rates, age-specific fertility rates and total fertility rates (live births), 2000 to most recent year.

The total fertility rate of the world has dropped from around 5 children per woman in 1950, to 2.2 children per woman in 2025, which means that women today are having fewer than half the number of children that women did 75 years ago. Replacement level fertility This change has come as a result of the global demographic transition, and is influenced by factors such as the significant reduction in infant and child mortality, reduced number of child marriages, increased educational and vocational opportunities for women, and the increased efficacy and availability of contraception. While this change has become synonymous with societal progress, it does have wide-reaching demographic impact - if the global average falls below replacement level (roughly 2.1 children per woman), as is expected to happen in the 2050s, then this will lead to long-term population decline on a global scale. Regional variations When broken down by continent, Africa is the only region with a fertility rate above the global average, and, alongside Oceania, it is the only region with a fertility rate above replacement level. Until the 1980s, the average woman in Africa could expect to have 6-7 children over the course of their lifetime, and there are still several countries in Africa where women can still expect to have 5 or more children in 2025. Historically, Europe has had the lowest fertility rates in the world over the past century, falling below replacement level in 1975. Europe's population has grown through a combination of migration and increasing life expectancy, however even high immigration rates could not prevent its population from going into decline in 2021.

Live births and stillbirths annual summary statistics, by sex, age of mother, whether within marriage or civil partnership, percentage of non-UK-born mothers, birth rates and births by month and mothers' area of usual residence.

The outbreak of the COVID-19 in early 2020 and the recurring epidemic in later years have disturbed China’s economy. Moreover, China’s demographic dividend has been disappearing due to its fastest aging population and declining birth rate. The birth rates in eastern provinces of China are much lower than those of the western provinces. Considering the impacts of the COVID-19 and aging population, this paper focused on the relationship between birth rate and the disposable income and tried to find effective measures to raise China’s birth rate. We discovered through regression analysis that the link between per capita disposable income and birth rate is initially "reverse J" and later "inverted J", indicating that per capita disposable income will influence the birth rate. Women’s employment rate and educational level are negatively correlated with the birth rate. To raise the fertility rate in China, it is necessary to increase the marriage rate and the willingness to have children by raising the per capita disposable income and introducing effective tax relief policies.

This data set contains estimated teen birth rates for age group 15–19 (expressed per 1,000 females aged 15–19) by county and year.

DEFINITIONS

Estimated teen birth rate: Model-based estimates of teen birth rates for age group 15–19 (expressed per 1,000 females aged 15–19) for a specific county and year. Estimated county teen birth rates were obtained using the methods described elsewhere (1,2,3,4). These annual county-level teen birth estimates “borrow strength” across counties and years to generate accurate estimates where data are sparse due to small population size (1,2,3,4). The inferential method uses information—including the estimated teen birth rates from neighboring counties across years and the associated explanatory variables—to provide a stable estimate of the county teen birth rate. Median teen birth rate: The middle value of the estimated teen birth rates for the age group 15–19 for counties in a state. Bayesian credible intervals: A range of values within which there is a 95% probability that the actual teen birth rate will fall, based on the observed teen births data and the model.

NOTES

Data on the number of live births for women aged 15–19 years were extracted from the National Center for Health Statistics’ (NCHS) National Vital Statistics System birth data files for 2003–2015 (5).

Population estimates were extracted from the files containing intercensal and postcensal bridged-race population estimates provided by NCHS. For each year, the July population estimates were used, with the exception of the year of the decennial census, 2010, for which the April estimates were used.

Hierarchical Bayesian space–time models were used to generate hierarchical Bayesian estimates of county teen birth rates for each year during 2003–2015 (1,2,3,4).

The Bayesian analogue of the frequentist confidence interval is defined as the Bayesian credible interval. A 100*(1-α)% Bayesian credible interval for an unknown parameter vector θ and observed data vector y is a subset C of parameter space Ф such that 1-α≤P({C│y})=∫p{θ │y}dθ, where integration is performed over the set and is replaced by summation for discrete components of θ. The probability that θ lies in C given the observed data y is at least (1- α) (6).

County borders in Alaska changed, and new counties were formed and others were merged, during 2003–2015. These changes were reflected in the population files but not in the natality files. For this reason, two counties in Alaska were collapsed so that the birth and population counts were comparable. Additionally, Kalawao County, a remote island county in Hawaii, recorded no births, and census estimates indicated a denominator of 0 (i.e., no females between the ages of 15 and 19 years residing in the county from 2003 through 2015). For this reason, Kalawao County was removed from the analysis. Also , Bedford City, Virginia, was added to Bedford County in 2015 and no longer appears in the mortality file in 2015. For consistency, Bedford City was merged with Bedford County, Virginia, for the entire 2003–2015 period. Final analysis was conducted on 3,137 counties for each year from 2003 through 2015. County boundaries are consistent with the vintage 2005–2007 bridged-race population file geographies (7).

BackgroundKawasaki disease (KD) is a common cause of acquired paediatric heart disease in developed countries. KD was first identified in the 1960s in Japan, and has been steadily increasing since it was first reported. The aetiology of KD has not been defined, but is assumed to be infection-related. The present study sought to identify the factor(s) that mediate the geographical variation and chronological increase of KD in Japan.Methods and FindingsBased upon data reported between 1979 and 2010 from all 47 prefectures in Japan, the incidence and mean patient age at the onset of KD were estimated. Using spatial and time-series analyses, incidence and mean age were regressed against climatic/socioeconomic variables. Both incidence and mean age of KD were inversely correlated with the total fertility rate (TFR; i.e., the number of children that would be born to one woman). The extrapolation of a time-series regressive model suggested that KD emerged in the 1960s because of a dramatic decrease in TFR in the 1940s through the 1950s.ConclusionsMean patient age is an inverse surrogate for the hazard of contracting the aetiologic agent. Therefore, the observed negative correlation between mean patient age and TFR suggests that a higher TFR is associated with KD transmission. This relationship may be because a higher TFR facilitates sibling-to-sibling transmission. Additionally, the observed inverse correlation between incidence and TFR implies a paradoxical “negative” correlation between the incidence and the hazard of contracting the aetiologic agent. It was hypothesized that a decreasing TFR resulted in a reduced hazard of contracting the agent for KD, thereby increasing KD incidence.

In the United States, the crude birth rate in 1800 was 48.3 live births per thousand people, meaning that 4.8 percent of the population had been born in that year. Between 1815 and 1825 the crude birth rate jumped from 46.5 to 54.7 (possibly due to Florida becoming a part of the US, but this is unclear), but from this point until the Second World War the crude birth rate dropped gradually, reaching 19.2 in 1935. Through the 1940s, 50s and 60s the US experienced it's baby boom, and the birth rate reached 24.1 in 1955, before dropping again until 1980. From the 1980s until today the birth rate's decline has slowed, and is expected to reach twelve in 2020, meaning that just over 1 percent of the population will be born in 2020.

Abstract

The 1997 the Kyrgyz Republic Demographic and Health Survey (KRDHS) is a nationally representative survey of 3,848 women age 15-49. Fieldwork was conducted from August to November 1997. The KRDHS was sponsored by the Ministry of Health (MOH), and was funded by the United States Agency for International Development. The Research Institute of Obstetrics and Pediatrics implemented the survey with technical assistance from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) program.

The purpose of the KRDHS was to provide data to the MOH on factors which determine the health status of women and children such as fertility, contraception, induced abortion, maternal care, infant mortality, nutritional status, and anemia.

Some statistics presented in this report are currently available to the MOH from other sources. For example, the MOH collects and regularly publishes information on fertility, contraception, induced abortion and infant mortality. However, the survey presents information on these indices in a manner which is not currently available, i.e., by population subgroups such as those defined by age, marital duration, education, and ethnicity. Additionally, the survey provides statistics on some issues not previously available in the Kyrgyz Republic: for example, breastfeeding practices and anemia status of women and children. When considered together, existing MOH data and the KRDHS data provide a more complete picture of the health conditions in the Kyrgyz Republic than was previously available.

A secondary objective of the survey was to enhance the capabilities of institutions in the Kyrgyz Republic to collect, process, and analyze population and health data.

MAIN FINDINGS

FERTILITY

Fertility Rates. Survey results indicate a total fertility rate (TFR) for all of the Kyrgyz Republic of 3.4 children per woman. Fertility levels differ for different population groups. The TFR for women living in urban areas (2.3 children per woman) is substantially lower than for women living in rural areas (3.9). The TFR for Kyrgyz women (3.6 children per woman) is higher than for women of Russian ethnicity (1.5) but lower than Uzbek women (4.2). Among the regions of the Kyrgyz Republic, the TFR is lowest in Bishkek City (1.7 children per woman), and the highest in the East Region (4.3), and intermediate in the North and South Regions (3.1 and3.9, respectively).

Time Trends. The KRDHS data show that fertility has declined in the Kyrgyz Republic in recent years. The decline in fertility from 5-9 to 0-4 years prior to the survey increases with age, from an 8 percent decline among 20-24 year olds to a 38 percent decline among 35-39 year olds. The declining trend in fertility can be seen by comparing the completed family size of women near the end of their childbearing years with the current TFR. Completed family size among women 40-49 is 4.6 children which is more than one child greater than the current TFR (3.4).

Birth Intervals. Overall, 30 percent of births in the Kyrgyz Republic take place within 24 months of the previous birth. The median birth interval is 31.9 months.

Age at Onset of Childbearing. The median age at which women in the Kyrgyz Republic begin childbearing has been holding steady over the past two decades at approximately 21.6 years. Most women have their first birth while in their early twenties, although about 20 percent of women give birth before age 20.

Nearly half of married women in the Kyrgyz Republic (45 percent) do not want to have more children. Additional one-quarter of women (26 percent) want to delay their next birth by at least two years. These are the women who are potentially in need of some method of family planning.

FAMILY PLANNING

Ever Use. Among currently married women, 83 percent report having used a method of contraception at some time. The women most likely to have ever used a method of contraception are those age 30-44 (among both currently married and all women).

Current Use. Overall, among currently married women, 60 percent report that they are currently using a contraceptive method. About half (49 percent) are using a modern method of contraception and another 11 percent are using a traditional method. The IUD is by far the most commonly used method; 38 percent of currently married women are using the IUD. Other modern methods of contraception account for only a small amount of use among currently married women: pills (2 percent), condoms (6 percent), and injectables and female sterilization (1 and 2 percent, respectively). Thus, the practice of family planning in the Kyrgyz Republic places high reliance on a single method, the IUD.

Source of Methods. The vast majority of women obtain their contraceptives through the public sector (97 percent): 35 percent from a government hospital, and 36 percent from a women counseling center. The source of supply of the method depends on the method being used. For example, most women using IUDs obtain them at women counseling centers (42 percent) or hospitals (39 percent). Government pharmacies supply 46 percent of pill users and 75 percent of condom users. Pill users also obtain supplies from women counseling centers or (33 percent).

Fertility Preferences. A majority of women in the Kyrgyz Republic (45 percent) indicated that they desire no more children. By age 25-29, 20 percent want no more children, and by age 30-34, nearly half (46 percent) want no more children. Thus, many women come to the preference to stop childbearing at relatively young ages-when they have 20 or more potential years of childbearing ahead of them. For some of these women, the most appropriate method of contraception may be a long-acting method such as female sterilization. However, there is a deficiency of use of this method in the Kyrgyz Republic. In the interests of providing a broad range of safe and effective methods, information about and access to sterilization should be increased so that individual women can make informed decisions about using this method.

INDUCED ABORTION

Abortion Rates. From the KRDHS data, the total abortion rate (TAR)-the number of abortions a woman will have in her lifetime based on the currently prevailing abortion rates-was calculated. For the Kyrgyz Republic, the TAR for the period from mid-1994 to mid-1997 is 1.6 abortions per woman. The TAR for the Kyrgyz Republic is lower than recent estimates of the TAR for other areas of the former Soviet Union such as Kazakhstan (1.8), and Yekaterinburg and Perm in Russia (2.3 and 2.8, respectively), but higher than for Uzbekistan (0.7).

The TAR is higher in urban areas (2.1 abortions per woman) than in rural areas (1.3). The TAR in Bishkek City is 2.0 which is two times higher than in other regions of the Kyrgyz Republic. Additionally the TAR is substantially lower among ethnic Kyrgyz women (1.3) than among women of Uzbek and Russian ethnicities (1.9 and 2.2 percent, respectively).

INFANT MORTALITY

In the KRDHS, infant mortality data were collected based on the international definition of a live birth which, irrespective of the duration of pregnancy, is a birth that breathes or shows any sign of life (United Nations, 1992). Mortality Rates. For the five-year period before the survey (i.e., approximately mid-1992 to mid1997), infant mortality in the Kyrgyz Republic is estimated at 61 infant deaths per 1,000 births. The estimates of neonatal and postneonatal mortality are 32 and 30 per 1,000.

The MOH publishes infant mortality rates annually but the definition of a live birth used by the MOH differs from that used in the survey. As is the case in most of the republics of the former Soviet Union, a pregnancy that terminates at less than 28 weeks of gestation is considered premature and is classified as a late miscarriage even if signs of life are present at the time of delivery. Thus, some events classified as late miscarriages in the MOH system would be classified as live births and infant deaths according to the definitions used in the KRDHS.

Infant mortality rates based on the MOH data for the years 1983 through 1996 show a persistent declining trend throughout the period, starting at about 40 per 1,000 in the early 1980s and declining to 26 per 1,000 in 1996. This time trend is similar to that displayed by the rates estimated from the KRDHS. Thus, the estimates from both the KRDHS and the Ministry document a substantial decline in infant mortality; 25 percent over the period from 1982-87 to 1992-97 according to the KRDHS and 28 percent over the period from 1983-87 to 1993-96 according to the MOH estimates. This is strong evidence of improvements in infant survivorship in recent years in the Kyrgyz Republic.

It should be noted that the rates from the survey are much higher than the MOH rates. For example, the KRDHS estimate of 61 per 1,000 for the period 1992-97 is twice the MOH estimate of 29 per 1,000 for 1993-96. Certainly, one factor leading to this difference are the differences in the definitions of a live birth and infant death in the KRDHS survey and in the MOH protocols. A thorough assessment of the difference between the two estimates would need to take into consideration the sampling variability of the survey's estimate. However, given the magnitude of the difference, it is likely that it arises from a combination of definitional and methodological differences between the survey and MOH registration system.

MATERNAL AND CHILD HEALTH

The Kyrgyz Republic has a well-developed health system with an extensive infrastructure of facilities that provide maternal care services. This system includes special delivery hospitals, the obstetrics and gynecology departments of general hospitals, women counseling centers, and doctor's assistant/midwife posts (FAPs). There is an extensive network of FAPs throughout the rural areas.

Delivery. Virtually all births in the

BackgroundAge-related decline in fertility is widely recognized. However, a quantitative evaluation of changes in oocyte quality and quantity remains insufficient. Therefore, developing a mathematical model to quantitatively predict live birth rates affected by these changes is essential for supporting decision-making in assisted reproductive technology.MethodsIn this retrospective cohort study, we developed a mathematical model to predict live birth rates based on oocyte quality and quantity using IVF treatment data from our clinic over an 8-year period. In the first stage, medically meaningful model functions were selected, and curve fitting was performed using weighted nonlinear least-squares regression to quantify age-related changes in oocyte quality and quantity. For oocyte quality, a comparative analysis was conducted on our clinical data and other large-scale datasets, modeling the live birth rate per single vitrified-warmed blastocyst transfer (SVBT) in correlation with the euploidy rate. For oocyte quantity, the distributions of anti-Müllerian hormone levels, antral follicle count, mature oocyte count, and transferable embryo count were analyzed by two-dimensional weighted nonlinear least-squares regression. In the second stage, logistic regression was applied to analyze live birth rates per SVBT and oocyte pick-up, incorporating multiple explanatory variables.ResultsThe adjusted R-squared values for the curve fitting results were above 0.9, indicating high fitting accuracy. In oocyte quality evaluation, all datasets showed that the values declined to half their peak by the age of 40 years. With respect to oocyte quantity, complete distribution characteristics were successfully modeled, enabling calculations at any percentile value. Logistic regression analysis incorporating blastocyst grade and culture duration as explanatory variables allowed for embryo selection based on a single indicator (i.e., the live birth rate). In the predictive model for live birth rate per oocyte pick-up, which included age, AMH levels, and number of retrieval cycles as explanatory variables, logistic regression analysis showed an AUC of 0.84 and an accuracy of 76.4%, demonstrating high predictive performance.ConclusionMathematical models of age-dependent oocyte quality and quantity were successfully developed. These models were integrated to construct a multi-variable predictive tool for estimating live birth rates, offering valuable insights for reproductive decision-making.

This map service, derived from World Bank data, shows various characteristics of the Health topic. The World Bank Group provides financing, state-of-the-art analysis, and policy advice to help countries expand access to quality, affordable health care; protects people from falling into poverty or worsening poverty due to illness; and promotes investments in all sectors that form the foundation of healthy societies.Age Dependency Ratio: Age dependency ratio is the ratio of dependents--people younger than 15 or older than 64--to the working-age population--those ages 15-64. Data are shown as the proportion of dependents per 100 working-age population. Data from 1960 – 2012.Age Dependency Ratio Old: Age dependency ratio, old, is the ratio of older dependents--people older than 64--to the working-age population--those ages 15-64. Data are shown as the proportion of dependents per 100 working-age population. Data from 1960 – 2012.Birth/Death Rate: Crude birth/death rate indicates the number of births/deaths occurring during the year, per
1,000 population estimated at midyear. Subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate provides the rate of natural increase, which is equal to the rate of population change in the absence of migration. Data spans from 1960 – 2008.Total Fertility: Total fertility rate represents the number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to live to the end of her childbearing years and bear children in accordance with current age-specific fertility rates. Data shown is for 1960 - 2008.Population Growth: Annual population growth rate for year t is the exponential rate of growth of midyear population from year t-1 to t, expressed as a percentage.
Population is based on the de facto definition of population, which
counts all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship--except
for refugees not permanently settled in the country of asylum, who are
generally considered part of the population of the country of origin. Data spans from 1960 – 2009.Life Expectancy: Life expectancy at birth indicates the number of years a newborn infant
would live if prevailing patterns of mortality at the time of its birth were to stay the same throughout its life. Data spans from 1960 – 2008.Population Female: Female population is the percentage of the population that is female. Population is based on the de facto definition of population. Data from 1960 – 2009.For more information, please visit: World Bank Open Data. _Other International User Community content that may interest you World Bank World Bank Age World Bank Health

Germany's death rate has exceeded its death rate in every year since 1972, meaning that its population has been in a natural decline for over five decades. However, Germany's population has remained fairly stable at over 80 million during this period, due to the influence of immigration.Find more statistics on other topics about Germany with key insights such as life expectancy of women at birth, total life expectancy at birth, and total fertility rate.

In China, the crude birth rate in 1930 was just under 39 live births per thousand people, meaning that 3.9 percent of the population had been born in that year. The crude birth rate dropped gradually over the next fifteen years, however it then rose to it's highest recorded figure by 1955. Between 1945 and 1950, the Second World War ended and the Chinese Civil War was finally coming to an end, and during this time the crude birth rate rose to almost 47 births per thousand in individual years. The crude birth rate dropped again in the late 1950s, as Chairman Mao's 'Great Leap Forward' failed to industrialize the nation, and resulted in a famine which killed an estimated 45 million people. The 1960s saw some recovery, where the figures rose from 36.4 to 39.5 births per thousand in this decade, however two-child and one-child policies were introduced in the 1970s and 80s, in an attempt to slow China's rapidly growing population. These measures led to the decline of the birth rate, dropping below fifteen births per thousand at the turn of the millennium. From 2000 until now the decline of China's crude birth rate has slowed, falling by just 2.8 births per thousand over the past twenty years, and it is expected to be just below twelve in 2020.

The declining birth rate is one of the world’s major challenges. There is much literature on birth rate research in China. However, there are few studies on spatial distribution and influencing factors of birth rate in the Yangtze River Basin. In this study, data from 11 regions of the Yangtze River Basin from 2006 to 2023 were used to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of birth rates using GIS spatial visualization and four-quadrant diagram. At the same time, 13 factors affecting birth rates were combined to carry out research. The results show that: (1) In 2023, five regions reported birth rates above 7‰, with Tibet faring the best, while six regions had rates below 7‰, with Hunan being the least favorable. (2) The first type of birth rate area shows a process of slow increase—slight decrease—accelerated growth—rapid decrease; the second type of birth rate area shows a process of gradual decrease—moderate increase—rapid decrease—rapid increase—rapid decrease; the third type of birth rate area has increased rapidly since 2021. The three types of birth rate areas show the characteristics of the spatiotemporal pattern of continuous spread and development. (3) The aging rate, per capita GDP, proportion of primary industry output value, proportion of tertiary industry output value, female illiteracy rate, per capita disposable income, per capita consumption expenditure, urbanization rate, proportion of higher education, juvenile dependency ratio, and elderly dependency ratio have different degrees of influence on the birth rate.

Regression results after excluding the variable EL.

Per capita disposable income of urban residents in different regions Unit: Yuan.

In Sweden, the crude birth rate in 1800 was just under 29 live births per thousand people, meaning that roughly 2.9 percent of the population had been born in that year. In the nineteenth century, Sweden experienced various population-influencing events, such as separate wars with Norway and Russia, several smallpox epidemics, mass migration to the US, and industrialization. In this time, the crude birth rate fluctuated between 27 and 36 births per thousand. Between 1875 and 1935 this rate decreased consistently from 30.7 to 14.1. Sweden's crude birth rate stopped falling around the time of the Second World War, and rose to almost nineteen in 1945, before plateauing in the mid-teens between 1955 and 1970, where the decline then resumed. There was another brief increase during the late 1980s and 90s, however these numbers then dropped to their lowest recorded figure of 10.4 in the year 2000, and in 2020 the crude birth rate of Sweden is expected to be just under twelve births per thousand people.