Today, globally, women of childbearing age have an average of approximately 2.2 children over the course of their lifetime. In pre-industrial times, most women could expect to have somewhere between five and ten live births throughout their lifetime; however, the demographic transition then sees fertility rates fall significantly. Looking ahead, it is believed that the global fertility rate will fall below replacement level in the 2050s, which will eventually lead to population decline when life expectancy plateaus. Recent decades Between the 1950s and 1970s, the global fertility rate was roughly five children per woman - this was partly due to the post-WWII baby boom in many countries, on top of already-high rates in less-developed countries. The drop around 1960 can be attributed to China's "Great Leap Forward", where famine and disease in the world's most populous country saw the global fertility rate drop by roughly 0.5 children per woman. Between the 1970s and today, fertility rates fell consistently, although the rate of decline noticeably slowed as the baby boomer generation then began having their own children. Replacement level fertility Replacement level fertility, i.e. the number of children born per woman that a population needs for long-term stability, is approximately 2.1 children per woman. Populations may continue to grow naturally despite below-replacement level fertility, due to reduced mortality and increased life expectancy, however, these will plateau with time and then population decline will occur. It is believed that the global fertility rate will drop below replacement level in the mid-2050s, although improvements in healthcare and living standards will see population growth continue into the 2080s when the global population will then start falling.

The total fertility rate of the world has dropped from around 5 children per woman in 1950, to 2.2 children per woman in 2025, which means that women today are having fewer than half the number of children that women did 75 years ago. Replacement level fertility This change has come as a result of the global demographic transition, and is influenced by factors such as the significant reduction in infant and child mortality, reduced number of child marriages, increased educational and vocational opportunities for women, and the increased efficacy and availability of contraception. While this change has become synonymous with societal progress, it does have wide-reaching demographic impact - if the global average falls below replacement level (roughly 2.1 children per woman), as is expected to happen in the 2050s, then this will lead to long-term population decline on a global scale. Regional variations When broken down by continent, Africa is the only region with a fertility rate above the global average, and, alongside Oceania, it is the only region with a fertility rate above replacement level. Until the 1980s, the average woman in Africa could expect to have 6-7 children over the course of their lifetime, and there are still several countries in Africa where women can still expect to have 5 or more children in 2025. Historically, Europe has had the lowest fertility rates in the world over the past century, falling below replacement level in 1975. Europe's population has grown through a combination of migration and increasing life expectancy, however even high immigration rates could not prevent its population from going into decline in 2021.

Graph and download economic data for Fertility Rate, Total for the United States (SPDYNTFRTINUSA) from 1960 to 2023 about fertility, rate, and USA.

Over the past 30 years, the birth rate in the United States has been steadily declining, and in 2023, there were 10.7 births per 1,000 of the population. In 1990, this figure stood at 16.7 births per 1,000 of the population. Demographics have an impact The average birth rate in the U.S. may be falling, but when broken down along ethnic and economic lines, a different picture is painted: Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander women saw the highest birth rate in 2022 among all ethnicities, and Asian women and white women both saw the lowest birth rate. Additionally, the higher the family income, the lower the birth rate; families making between 15,000 and 24,999 U.S. dollars annually had the highest birth rate of any income bracket in the States. Life expectancy at birth In addition to the declining birth rate in the U.S., the total life expectancy at birth has also reached its lowest value recently. Studies have shown that the life expectancy of both men and women in the United States has been declining over the last few years. Declines in life expectancy, like declines in birth rates, may indicate that there are social and economic factors negatively influencing the overall population health and well-being of the country.

Graph and download economic data for Crude Birth Rate for the United States (SPDYNCBRTINUSA) from 1960 to 2023 about birth, crude, rate, and USA.

The average for 2022 based on 195 countries was 18.38 births per 1000 people. The highest value was in Niger: 45.03 births per 1000 people and the lowest value was in Hong Kong: 4.4 births per 1000 people. The indicator is available from 1960 to 2022. Below is a chart for all countries where data are available.

In 2021, there were **** births per 1,000 people in Northern Ireland, compared with eleven in the previous year. Between 2000 and 2008, Northern Ireland's birth rate increased from **** to **** but started to decline gradually until 2012 when it dropped from **** to **** in just one year. During this provided time period, the birth rate in Northern Ireland was highest in 1971, when it was **** and was at its lowest in 2020 when there were just eleven births per 1,000 people. Falling birth rates in the UK For the United Kingdom as a whole, the birth rate fell to **** births per 1,000 people in 2020, before a slight uptick to **** in 2021. After a postwar peak of **** births per 1,000 people in 1964, the UK birth rate fell sharply to just **** by 1977. Between 1977 and 2012 the birth rate fluctuated between **** and ****, but declined in every year between 2012 and 2020. In 2021, the UK's fertility rate (the number of births per women) fell to just ****, compared with **** in 1964. Since 1973, the UK has fallen below the minimum replacement level fertility rate of ***, and without immigration would likely see its population decline in the long term. Global demographic trends The considerable decline in the UK's fertility rate in recent decades is not an isolated phenomenon. As of 2024, Africa was, at ****, the only continent to have a fertility rate higher than the global average of ****. Several countries, mainly in East Asia and Europe, have far lower fertility rates than the UK or the global average, however. South Korea provides the most dramatic example of this trend, with its fertility rate falling from **** in 1960 to just **** by 2020. By the *****, it is expected that, as Africa's fertility rate converges with the rest of the world, the global population will peak at around **** billion and start to decline.

Germany FSO Projection: Population: High Birth Rate Based Trend data was reported at 71,236.000 Person th in 2060. This records a decrease from the previous number of 71,533.000 Person th for 2059. Germany FSO Projection: Population: High Birth Rate Based Trend data is updated yearly, averaging 78,472.000 Person th from Dec 2014 (Median) to 2060, with 47 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 81,691.000 Person th in 2019 and a record low of 71,236.000 Person th in 2060. Germany FSO Projection: Population: High Birth Rate Based Trend data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Statistics Office Germany. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Germany – Table DE.G003: Population: Projection: Federal Statistics Office Germany.

The graph illustrates the number of babies born in the United States from 1995 to 2025. The x-axis represents the years, labeled from '95 to '25, while the y-axis shows the annual number of births. Over this 30-year period, birth numbers peaked at 4,316,233 in 2007 and reached a low of 3,596,017 in 2023. The data reveals relatively stable birth rates from 1995 to 2010, with slight fluctuations, followed by a gradual decline starting around 2017. The information is presented in a line graph format, effectively highlighting the long-term downward trend in U.S. birth numbers over the specified timeframe.

For most of the past two centuries, falling birth rates have been associated with societal progress. During the demographic transition, where pre-industrial societies modernize in terms of fertility and mortality, falling death rates, especially among infants and children, are the first major change. In response, as more children survive into adulthood, women have fewer children as the need to compensate for child mortality declines. This transition has happened at different times across the world and is an ongoing process, with early industrial countries being the first to transition, and Sub-Saharan African countries being the most recent to do so. Additionally, some Asian countries (particularly China through government policy) have gone through their demographic transitions at a much faster pace than those deemed more developed. Today, in countries such as Japan, Italy, and Germany, birth rates have fallen well below death rates; this is no longer considered a positive demographic trend, as it leads to natural population decline, and may create an over-aged population that could place a burden on healthcare systems.

Crude birth rates, age-specific fertility rates and total fertility rates (live births), 2000 to most recent year.

United States US: Fertility Rate: Total: Births per Woman data was reported at 1.800 Ratio in 2016. This records a decrease from the previous number of 1.843 Ratio for 2015. United States US: Fertility Rate: Total: Births per Woman data is updated yearly, averaging 2.002 Ratio from Dec 1960 (Median) to 2016, with 57 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.654 Ratio in 1960 and a record low of 1.738 Ratio in 1976. United States US: Fertility Rate: Total: Births per Woman data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.World Bank: Health Statistics. Total fertility rate represents the number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to live to the end of her childbearing years and bear children in accordance with age-specific fertility rates of the specified year.; ; (1) United Nations Population Division. World Population Prospects: 2017 Revision. (2) Census reports and other statistical publications from national statistical offices, (3) Eurostat: Demographic Statistics, (4) United Nations Statistical Division. Population and Vital Statistics Reprot (various years), (5) U.S. Census Bureau: International Database, and (6) Secretariat of the Pacific Community: Statistics and Demography Programme.; Weighted average; Relevance to gender indicator: it can indicate the status of women within households and a woman’s decision about the number and spacing of children.

This data set contains estimated teen birth rates for age group 15–19 (expressed per 1,000 females aged 15–19) by county and year.

DEFINITIONS

Estimated teen birth rate: Model-based estimates of teen birth rates for age group 15–19 (expressed per 1,000 females aged 15–19) for a specific county and year. Estimated county teen birth rates were obtained using the methods described elsewhere (1,2,3,4). These annual county-level teen birth estimates “borrow strength” across counties and years to generate accurate estimates where data are sparse due to small population size (1,2,3,4). The inferential method uses information—including the estimated teen birth rates from neighboring counties across years and the associated explanatory variables—to provide a stable estimate of the county teen birth rate.
Median teen birth rate: The middle value of the estimated teen birth rates for the age group 15–19 for counties in a state.
Bayesian credible intervals: A range of values within which there is a 95% probability that the actual teen birth rate will fall, based on the observed teen births data and the model.

NOTES

Data on the number of live births for women aged 15–19 years were extracted from the National Center for Health Statistics’ (NCHS) National Vital Statistics System birth data files for 2003–2015 (5).

Population estimates were extracted from the files containing intercensal and postcensal bridged-race population estimates provided by NCHS. For each year, the July population estimates were used, with the exception of the year of the decennial census, 2010, for which the April estimates were used.

Hierarchical Bayesian space–time models were used to generate hierarchical Bayesian estimates of county teen birth rates for each year during 2003–2015 (1,2,3,4).

The Bayesian analogue of the frequentist confidence interval is defined as the Bayesian credible interval. A 100*(1-α)% Bayesian credible interval for an unknown parameter vector θ and observed data vector y is a subset C of parameter space Ф such that
1-α≤P({C│y})=∫p{θ │y}dθ,
where integration is performed over the set and is replaced by summation for discrete components of θ. The probability that θ lies in C given the observed data y is at least (1- α) (6).

County borders in Alaska changed, and new counties were formed and others were merged, during 2003–2015. These changes were reflected in the population files but not in the natality files. For this reason, two counties in Alaska were collapsed so that the birth and population counts were comparable. Additionally, Kalawao County, a remote island county in Hawaii, recorded no births, and census estimates indicated a denominator of 0 (i.e., no females between the ages of 15 and 19 years residing in the county from 2003 through 2015). For this reason, Kalawao County was removed from the analysis. Also , Bedford City, Virginia, was added to Bedford County in 2015 and no longer appears in the mortality file in 2015. For consistency, Bedford City was merged with Bedford County, Virginia, for the entire 2003–2015 period. Final analysis was conducted on 3,137 counties for each year from 2003 through 2015. County boundaries are consistent with the vintage 2005–2007 bridged-race population file geographies (7).

SOURCES

National Center for Health Statistics. Vital statistics data available online, Natality all-county files. Hyattsville, MD. Published annually.

For details about file release and access policy, see NCHS data release and access policy for micro-data and compressed vital statistics files, available from: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/dvs_data_release.htm.

For natality public-use files, see vital statistics data available online, available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data_access/vitalstatsonline.htm.

National Center for Health Statistics. U.S. Census populations with bridged race categories. Estimated population data available. Postcensal and intercensal files. Hyattsville, MD. Released annually.

For population files, see U.S. Census populations with bridged race categories, available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/bridged_race.htm.

REFERENCES

1. Khan D, Rossen LM, Hamilton B, Dienes E, He Y, Wei R. Spatiotemporal trends in teen birth rates in the USA, 2003–2012. J R Stat Soc A 181(1):35–58. 2017. Available from: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/rssa.12266/abstract.

2. Khan D, Rossen LM, Hamilton BE, He Y, Wei R, Dienes E. Hot spots, cluster detection and spatial outlier analysis of teen birth rates in the U.S., 2003–2012. Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol 21:67–75. 2017. Available from: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877584516300442.

3. Rue H, Martino S, Lindgren F. INLA: Functions which allow to perform a full Bayesian analysis of structured additive models using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation. R package, version 0.0. 2009.

4. Rue H, Martino S, Chopin N. Approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models by using integrated nested Laplace approximations. J R Stat Soc B 71(2):319–92. 2009.

5. Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Osterman MJK, Driscoll AK, Mathews TJ. Births: Final data for 2015. National Vital Statistics Reports; vol 66 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2017. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr66/nvsr66_01.pdf (1.9 MB).

6. Carlin BP, Louis TA. Bayesian methods for data analysis. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press, 2009.

7. National Center for Health Statistics. County geography changes: 1990–2012. Available from: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/bridged_race/County_Geography_Changes.pdf (39 KB).

Introduction: Though awareness of climate change rose globally with the release of former Vice President Al Gore’s movie and book An Inconvenient Truth in 2006, there has seemingly never been a connection drawn between Gore’s works and subsequent fertility trends in the United States, particularly along political lines. Objectives: The primary objective of this project is to determine whether the release of the movie and book An Inconvenient Truth in 2006 sparked an inflection point within a year or two in the United States for birth rates, and whether those rates differ between red and blue states. The secondary objective is to determine whether there was a drop in birth rates after that inflection point. Methods: This project used natality data – birth rates per state per year from 2003-2020 – from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, joined with state political party data from the 2020 Presidential election from Wisevoter. Data were cleaned using Excel and analyzed using Tableau visualizations. Results: The year 2007 was indeed an inflection point in the United States for birth rates, as both red and blue states recorded their highest birth rates at this point in the 2003-2020 span. The birth rate in red states was higher than that of blue states throughout the span but both rates had a positive correlation, running parallel throughout the span. Conclusions: The United States birth rate declined after 2007 in both red and blue states, but it is unclear whether the release of An Inconvenient Truth influenced this decline.

India: The number of crude births per 1000 people, per year: The latest value from 2022 is 16.27 births per 1000 people, a decline from 16.42 births per 1000 people in 2021. In comparison, the world average is 18.38 births per 1000 people, based on data from 195 countries. Historically, the average for India from 1960 to 2022 is 30.5 births per 1000 people. The minimum value, 16.27 births per 1000 people, was reached in 2022 while the maximum of 42.51 births per 1000 people was recorded in 1960.

This is the code replication archive for the paper, "The COVID-19 Baby Bump in the United States," published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The underlying natality microdata are restricted, so this archive contains only the code to replicate our analysis.We use natality microdata covering the universe of U.S. births for 2015-2021 and California births from 2015 through February 2023 to examine childbearing responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that 60% of the 2020 decline in U.S. fertility rates was driven by sharp reductions in births to foreign-born mothers although births to this group comprised only 22% of all U.S. births in 2019. This decline started in January 2020. In contrast, the COVID-19 recession resulted in an overall “baby bump” among U.S.-born mothers which marked the first reversal in declining fertility rates since the Great Recession. Births to U.S.-born mothers fell by 31,000 in 2020 relative to a pre-pandemic trend but increased by 71,000 in 2021. The data for California suggest that U.S. births remained elevated through February 2023. The baby bump was most pronounced for first births and women under age 25, suggesting that the pandemic led some women to start families earlier. Above age 25, the baby bump was most pronounced for women ages 30-34 and women with a college education. The 2021-2022 baby bump is especially remarkable given the large declines in fertility rates that would have been projected by standard statistical models.

CN: Population: Birth Rate: Anhui data was reported at 0.617 % in 2024. This records a decrease from the previous number of 0.645 % for 2023. CN: Population: Birth Rate: Anhui data is updated yearly, averaging 1.288 % from Dec 1990 (Median) to 2024, with 35 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.447 % in 1990 and a record low of 0.617 % in 2024. CN: Population: Birth Rate: Anhui data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by National Bureau of Statistics. The data is categorized under China Premium Database’s Socio-Demographic – Table CN.GA: Population: Birth Rate: By Region.

The fertility rate of a country is the average number of children that women from that country will have throughout their reproductive years. In the United States in 1800, the average woman of childbearing age would have seven children over the course of their lifetime. As factors such as technology, hygiene, medicine and education improved, women were having fewer children than before, reaching just two children per woman in 1940. This changed quite dramatically in the aftermath of the Second World War, rising sharply to over 3.5 children per woman in 1960 (children born between 1946 and 1964 are nowadays known as the 'Baby Boomer' generation, and they make up roughly twenty percent of todays US population). Due to the end of the baby boom and increased access to contraception, fertility reached it's lowest point in the US in 1980, where it was just 1.77. It did however rise to over two children per woman between 1995 and 2010, although it is expected to drop again by 2020, to just 1.78.

Turkey fertility rate for 2025 is 1.97, a 0.71% decline from 2024.

<ul style='margin-top:20px;'>

<li>Turkey fertility rate for 2024 was <strong>1.98</strong>, a <strong>31.13% increase</strong> from 2023.</li>
<li>Turkey fertility rate for 2023 was <strong>1.51</strong>, a <strong>7.36% decline</strong> from 2022.</li>
<li>Turkey fertility rate for 2022 was <strong>1.63</strong>, a <strong>4.68% decline</strong> from 2021.</li>
</ul>Total fertility rate represents the number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to live to the end of her childbearing years and bear children in accordance with age-specific fertility rates of the specified year.

The birth rate, also known as the crude birth rate, is a key demographic indicator that measures the number of live births occurring in a population per 1,000 people annually. This vital statistic provides insight into population growth and is often used by policymakers, researchers, and governments to understand trends in fertility, family planning, and societal development. A high birth rate generally indicates a growing population, while a low birth rate may suggest declining growth or aging demographics. Factors influencing birth rates include cultural, economic, social, and environmental conditions. Countries with advanced healthcare systems and access to education often see lower birth rates, as families may opt for fewer children. In contrast, regions with limited access to family planning and healthcare may experience higher birth rates. Understanding the birth rate is crucial for managing resources, planning social services, and predicting future population changes on both national and global scales.