This paper documents a set of facts about the dramatic decline in birth rates in the United States between 2007 and 2020 and explores possible explanations for it. The overall reduction in the birth rate reflects both very large declines within certain groups of women, including teens and Hispanic women – and smaller declines among demographic groups that comprise a large population share, including college-educated white women. We explore potential economic, policy, and social factors that might be responsible for the overall decline. We conclude from our empirical examination of possible factors that there is not a readily identifiable economic or policy factor or set of factors this is likely responsible for a substantial share of the decline. Instead, the patterns observed suggest that widespread, hard to quantify changes in preferences for having children, aspirations for life, and the nature of parenting are more likely behind the recent decline in US births. We conclude with a brief discussion about the societal consequences for a declining birth rate and what the United States might do about it.

Today, globally, women of childbearing age have an average of approximately 2.2 children over the course of their lifetime. In pre-industrial times, most women could expect to have somewhere between five and ten live births throughout their lifetime; however, the demographic transition then sees fertility rates fall significantly. Looking ahead, it is believed that the global fertility rate will fall below replacement level in the 2050s, which will eventually lead to population decline when life expectancy plateaus. Recent decades Between the 1950s and 1970s, the global fertility rate was roughly five children per woman - this was partly due to the post-WWII baby boom in many countries, on top of already-high rates in less-developed countries. The drop around 1960 can be attributed to China's "Great Leap Forward", where famine and disease in the world's most populous country saw the global fertility rate drop by roughly 0.5 children per woman. Between the 1970s and today, fertility rates fell consistently, although the rate of decline noticeably slowed as the baby boomer generation then began having their own children. Replacement level fertility Replacement level fertility, i.e. the number of children born per woman that a population needs for long-term stability, is approximately 2.1 children per woman. Populations may continue to grow naturally despite below-replacement level fertility, due to reduced mortality and increased life expectancy, however, these will plateau with time and then population decline will occur. It is believed that the global fertility rate will drop below replacement level in the mid-2050s, although improvements in healthcare and living standards will see population growth continue into the 2080s when the global population will then start falling.

Over the past 30 years, the birth rate in the United States has been steadily declining, and in 2023, there were 10.7 births per 1,000 of the population. In 1990, this figure stood at 16.7 births per 1,000 of the population. Demographics have an impact The average birth rate in the U.S. may be falling, but when broken down along ethnic and economic lines, a different picture is painted: Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander women saw the highest birth rate in 2022 among all ethnicities, and Asian women and white women both saw the lowest birth rate. Additionally, the higher the family income, the lower the birth rate; families making between 15,000 and 24,999 U.S. dollars annually had the highest birth rate of any income bracket in the States. Life expectancy at birth In addition to the declining birth rate in the U.S., the total life expectancy at birth has also reached its lowest value recently. Studies have shown that the life expectancy of both men and women in the United States has been declining over the last few years. Declines in life expectancy, like declines in birth rates, may indicate that there are social and economic factors negatively influencing the overall population health and well-being of the country.

Graph and download economic data for Crude Birth Rate for the United States (SPDYNCBRTINUSA) from 1960 to 2023 about birth, crude, rate, and USA.

The total fertility rate of the world has dropped from around 5 children per woman in 1950, to 2.2 children per woman in 2025, which means that women today are having fewer than half the number of children that women did 75 years ago. Replacement level fertility This change has come as a result of the global demographic transition, and is influenced by factors such as the significant reduction in infant and child mortality, reduced number of child marriages, increased educational and vocational opportunities for women, and the increased efficacy and availability of contraception. While this change has become synonymous with societal progress, it does have wide-reaching demographic impact - if the global average falls below replacement level (roughly 2.1 children per woman), as is expected to happen in the 2050s, then this will lead to long-term population decline on a global scale. Regional variations When broken down by continent, Africa is the only region with a fertility rate above the global average, and, alongside Oceania, it is the only region with a fertility rate above replacement level. Until the 1980s, the average woman in Africa could expect to have 6-7 children over the course of their lifetime, and there are still several countries in Africa where women can still expect to have 5 or more children in 2025. Historically, Europe has had the lowest fertility rates in the world over the past century, falling below replacement level in 1975. Europe's population has grown through a combination of migration and increasing life expectancy, however even high immigration rates could not prevent its population from going into decline in 2021.

Graph and download economic data for Fertility Rate, Total for the United States (SPDYNTFRTINUSA) from 1960 to 2023 about fertility, rate, and USA.

While the standard image of the nuclear family with two parents and 2.5 children has persisted in the American imagination, the number of births in the U.S. has steadily been decreasing since 1990, with about 3.6 million babies born in 2023. In 1990, this figure was 4.16 million. Birth and replacement rates A country’s birth rate is defined as the number of live births per 1,000 inhabitants, and it is this particularly important number that has been decreasing over the past few decades. The declining birth rate is not solely an American problem, with EU member states showing comparable rates to the U.S. Additionally, each country has what is called a “replacement rate.” The replacement rate is the rate of fertility needed to keep a population stable when compared with the death rate. In the U.S., the fertility rate needed to keep the population stable is around 2.1 children per woman, but this figure was at 1.67 in 2022. Falling birth rates Currently, there is much discussion as to what exactly is causing the birth rate to decrease in the United States. There seem to be several factors in play, including longer life expectancies, financial concerns (such as the economic crisis of 2008), and an increased focus on careers, all of which are causing people to wait longer to start a family. How international governments will handle falling populations remains to be seen, but what is clear is that the declining birth rate is a multifaceted problem without an easy solution.

The average for 2022 based on 195 countries was 18.38 births per 1000 people. The highest value was in Niger: 45.03 births per 1000 people and the lowest value was in Hong Kong: 4.4 births per 1000 people. The indicator is available from 1960 to 2022. Below is a chart for all countries where data are available.

Crude birth rates, age-specific fertility rates and total fertility rates (live births), 2000 to most recent year.

Georgia birth rate for 2025 is 11.85, a 1.42% decline from 2024.

<ul style='margin-top:20px;'>

<li>Georgia birth rate for 2024 was <strong>12.02</strong>, a <strong>1.4% decline</strong> from 2023.</li>
<li>Georgia birth rate for 2023 was <strong>12.19</strong>, a <strong>2.25% decline</strong> from 2022.</li>
<li>Georgia birth rate for 2022 was <strong>12.47</strong>, a <strong>2.2% decline</strong> from 2021.</li>
</ul>Crude birth rate indicates the number of live births occurring during the year, per 1,000 population estimated at midyear. Subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate provides the rate of natural increase, which is equal to the rate of population change in the absence of migration.

For most of the past two centuries, falling birth rates have been associated with societal progress. During the demographic transition, where pre-industrial societies modernize in terms of fertility and mortality, falling death rates, especially among infants and children, are the first major change. In response, as more children survive into adulthood, women have fewer children as the need to compensate for child mortality declines. This transition has happened at different times across the world and is an ongoing process, with early industrial countries being the first to transition, and Sub-Saharan African countries being the most recent to do so. Additionally, some Asian countries (particularly China through government policy) have gone through their demographic transitions at a much faster pace than those deemed more developed. Today, in countries such as Japan, Italy, and Germany, birth rates have fallen well below death rates; this is no longer considered a positive demographic trend, as it leads to natural population decline, and may create an over-aged population that could place a burden on healthcare systems.

In 2021, there were **** births per 1,000 people in Northern Ireland, compared with eleven in the previous year. Between 2000 and 2008, Northern Ireland's birth rate increased from **** to **** but started to decline gradually until 2012 when it dropped from **** to **** in just one year. During this provided time period, the birth rate in Northern Ireland was highest in 1971, when it was **** and was at its lowest in 2020 when there were just eleven births per 1,000 people. Falling birth rates in the UK For the United Kingdom as a whole, the birth rate fell to **** births per 1,000 people in 2020, before a slight uptick to **** in 2021. After a postwar peak of **** births per 1,000 people in 1964, the UK birth rate fell sharply to just **** by 1977. Between 1977 and 2012 the birth rate fluctuated between **** and ****, but declined in every year between 2012 and 2020. In 2021, the UK's fertility rate (the number of births per women) fell to just ****, compared with **** in 1964. Since 1973, the UK has fallen below the minimum replacement level fertility rate of ***, and without immigration would likely see its population decline in the long term. Global demographic trends The considerable decline in the UK's fertility rate in recent decades is not an isolated phenomenon. As of 2024, Africa was, at ****, the only continent to have a fertility rate higher than the global average of ****. Several countries, mainly in East Asia and Europe, have far lower fertility rates than the UK or the global average, however. South Korea provides the most dramatic example of this trend, with its fertility rate falling from **** in 1960 to just **** by 2020. By the *****, it is expected that, as Africa's fertility rate converges with the rest of the world, the global population will peak at around **** billion and start to decline.

In 2021 the live birth rate of the United Kingdom fell to 10.4 births per 1,000 population, the lowest it had been during this time period. The UK's birth rate has been declining steadily since 2010 when the birth rate was 12.9 births per 1,000 population. After 1938, the year with the highest birth rate in the UK was 1947, when the crude birth rate was 21.2 births per 1,000 population. Under two children per mother in 2021 The most recent crude live birth rate for this statistic is based on the 694,685 births, that occurred in 2021 as well as the mid-year population estimate of 67 million for the United Kingdom. It has a close relation to the fertility rate which estimates the average number of children women are expected to have in their lifetime, which was 1.53 in this reporting year. Among the constituent countries of the UK, Northern Ireland had the highest birth rate at 11.6, followed by England at 10.5, Wales at 9.3, and Scotland at 8.7. International comparisons The UK is not alone in seeing its birth and fertility rates decline dramatically in recent decades. Across the globe, fertility rates have fallen noticeably since the 1960s, with the fertility rate for Asia, Europe, and the Americas being below two in 2021. As of this year, the global fertility rate was 2.31, and was by far the highest in Africa, which had a fertility rate of 4.12, although this too has fallen from a high of 6.72 in the late 1960s. A reduction in infant mortality, as well as better access to contraception, are factors that have typically influenced declining fertility rates recently.

The graph illustrates the number of babies born in the United States from 1995 to 2025. The x-axis represents the years, labeled from '95 to '25, while the y-axis shows the annual number of births. Over this 30-year period, birth numbers peaked at 4,316,233 in 2007 and reached a low of 3,596,017 in 2023. The data reveals relatively stable birth rates from 1995 to 2010, with slight fluctuations, followed by a gradual decline starting around 2017. The information is presented in a line graph format, effectively highlighting the long-term downward trend in U.S. birth numbers over the specified timeframe.

In the United States, the crude birth rate in 1800 was 48.3 live births per thousand people, meaning that 4.8 percent of the population had been born in that year. Between 1815 and 1825 the crude birth rate jumped from 46.5 to 54.7 (possibly due to Florida becoming a part of the US, but this is unclear), but from this point until the Second World War the crude birth rate dropped gradually, reaching 19.2 in 1935. Through the 1940s, 50s and 60s the US experienced it's baby boom, and the birth rate reached 24.1 in 1955, before dropping again until 1980. From the 1980s until today the birth rate's decline has slowed, and is expected to reach twelve in 2020, meaning that just over 1 percent of the population will be born in 2020.

The teen birth rate has dropped both nationally and in Iowa in recent years. Understanding differences in the teen birth rate throughout Iowa counties can inform prevention efforts within communities.

Over the past 30 years, the birth rate in the United States has been steadily declining, and in 2022, there were 11 births per 1,000 of the population. In 1990, this figure stood at 16.7 births per 1,000 of the population. Demographics have an impact The average birth rate in the U.S. may be falling, but when broken down along ethnic and economic lines, a different picture is painted: Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander women saw the highest birth rate in 2022 among all ethnicities, and Asian women and white women both saw the lowest birth rate. Additionally, the higher the family income, the lower the birth rate; families making between 15,000 and 24,999 U.S. dollars annually had the highest birth rate of any income bracket in the States. Life expectancy at birth In addition to the declining birth rate in the U.S., the total life expectancy at birth has also reached its lowest value in recent years. Studies have shown that the life expectancy of both men and women in the United States has declined as of 2021. Declines in life expectancy, like declines in birth rates, may indicate that there are social and economic factors negatively influencing the overall population health and well-being of the country.

This is the code replication archive for the paper, "The COVID-19 Baby Bump in the United States," published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The underlying natality microdata are restricted, so this archive contains only the code to replicate our analysis.We use natality microdata covering the universe of U.S. births for 2015-2021 and California births from 2015 through February 2023 to examine childbearing responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that 60% of the 2020 decline in U.S. fertility rates was driven by sharp reductions in births to foreign-born mothers although births to this group comprised only 22% of all U.S. births in 2019. This decline started in January 2020. In contrast, the COVID-19 recession resulted in an overall “baby bump” among U.S.-born mothers which marked the first reversal in declining fertility rates since the Great Recession. Births to U.S.-born mothers fell by 31,000 in 2020 relative to a pre-pandemic trend but increased by 71,000 in 2021. The data for California suggest that U.S. births remained elevated through February 2023. The baby bump was most pronounced for first births and women under age 25, suggesting that the pandemic led some women to start families earlier. Above age 25, the baby bump was most pronounced for women ages 30-34 and women with a college education. The 2021-2022 baby bump is especially remarkable given the large declines in fertility rates that would have been projected by standard statistical models.

Turkey fertility rate for 2025 is 1.97, a 0.71% decline from 2024.

<ul style='margin-top:20px;'>

<li>Turkey fertility rate for 2024 was <strong>1.98</strong>, a <strong>31.13% increase</strong> from 2023.</li>
<li>Turkey fertility rate for 2023 was <strong>1.51</strong>, a <strong>7.36% decline</strong> from 2022.</li>
<li>Turkey fertility rate for 2022 was <strong>1.63</strong>, a <strong>4.68% decline</strong> from 2021.</li>
</ul>Total fertility rate represents the number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to live to the end of her childbearing years and bear children in accordance with age-specific fertility rates of the specified year.

The continuous decline in the birth rate can lead to a series of social and economic problems. Accurately predicting the birth rate of a region will help national and local governments to formulate more scientifically sound development policies. This paper proposes a discrete-aware model BRP-Net based on attention mechanism and LSTM, for effectively predicting the birth rate of prefecture-level cities. BRP-Net is trained using multiple variables related to comprehensive development of prefecture-level cities, covering factors such as economy, education and population structure that can influence the birth rate. Additionally, the comprehensive data of China’s prefecture-level cities exhibits strong spatiotemporal specificity. Our model leverages the advantages of attention mechanism to identify the feature correlation and temporal relationships of these multi-variable time series input data. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that the proposed BRP-Net has higher accuracy and better generalization performance compared to other mainstream methods, while being able to adapt to the spatiotemporal specificity of variables between prefecture-level cities. Using BRP-Net to achieve precise and robust prediction estimates of the birth rate in prefecture-level cities can provide more effective decision-making references for local governments to formulate more accurate and reasonable fertility encouragement policies.