Today, globally, women of childbearing age have an average of approximately 2.2 children over the course of their lifetime. In pre-industrial times, most women could expect to have somewhere between five and ten live births throughout their lifetime; however, the demographic transition then sees fertility rates fall significantly. Looking ahead, it is believed that the global fertility rate will fall below replacement level in the 2050s, which will eventually lead to population decline when life expectancy plateaus. Recent decades Between the 1950s and 1970s, the global fertility rate was roughly five children per woman - this was partly due to the post-WWII baby boom in many countries, on top of already-high rates in less-developed countries. The drop around 1960 can be attributed to China's "Great Leap Forward", where famine and disease in the world's most populous country saw the global fertility rate drop by roughly 0.5 children per woman. Between the 1970s and today, fertility rates fell consistently, although the rate of decline noticeably slowed as the baby boomer generation then began having their own children. Replacement level fertility Replacement level fertility, i.e. the number of children born per woman that a population needs for long-term stability, is approximately 2.1 children per woman. Populations may continue to grow naturally despite below-replacement level fertility, due to reduced mortality and increased life expectancy, however, these will plateau with time and then population decline will occur. It is believed that the global fertility rate will drop below replacement level in the mid-2050s, although improvements in healthcare and living standards will see population growth continue into the 2080s when the global population will then start falling.

This paper documents a set of facts about the dramatic decline in birth rates in the United States between 2007 and 2020 and explores possible explanations for it. The overall reduction in the birth rate reflects both very large declines within certain groups of women, including teens and Hispanic women – and smaller declines among demographic groups that comprise a large population share, including college-educated white women. We explore potential economic, policy, and social factors that might be responsible for the overall decline. We conclude from our empirical examination of possible factors that there is not a readily identifiable economic or policy factor or set of factors this is likely responsible for a substantial share of the decline. Instead, the patterns observed suggest that widespread, hard to quantify changes in preferences for having children, aspirations for life, and the nature of parenting are more likely behind the recent decline in US births. We conclude with a brief discussion about the societal consequences for a declining birth rate and what the United States might do about it.

The total fertility rate of the world has dropped from around five children per woman in 1950, to 2.3 children per woman in 2023, which means that women today are having fewer than half the number of children that women did 75 years ago. This change has come as a result of the global demographic transition, and is influenced by factors such as the significant reduction in infant and child mortality, reduced number of child marriages, increased educational and vocational opportunities for women, and the increased efficacy and availability of contraception. While this change has become synonymous with societal progress, it does have wide-reaching demographic impact - if the global average falls below replacement level (roughly 2.1 children per woman), as is expected to happen in the 2050s, then this will lead to long-term population decline on a global scale.

When broken down by continent, Africa is the only region with a fertility rate above the global average, while it and Oceania are the only regions with above replacement level fertility rates. Until the 1980s, women in Africa could expect to have almost seven children throughout the course of their lifetimes, and there are still eight countries in Africa where the average woman of childbearing age can still expect to have five or more children in 2023. Historically, Europe has had the lowest fertility rate in the world over the past century, falling below replacement level in 1975 - Europe's population has grown through a combination of migration and increasing life expectancy, however even high immigration rates could not prevent its population from going into decline in 2021.

Over the past 30 years, the birth rate in the United States has been steadily declining, and in 2022, there were 11 births per 1,000 of the population. In 1990, this figure stood at 16.7 births per 1,000 of the population. Demographics have an impact The average birth rate in the U.S. may be falling, but when broken down along ethnic and economic lines, a different picture is painted: Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander women saw the highest birth rate in 2022 among all ethnicities, and Asian women and white women both saw the lowest birth rate. Additionally, the higher the family income, the lower the birth rate; families making between 15,000 and 24,999 U.S. dollars annually had the highest birth rate of any income bracket in the States. Life expectancy at birth In addition to the declining birth rate in the U.S., the total life expectancy at birth has also reached its lowest value in recent years. Studies have shown that the life expectancy of both men and women in the United States has declined as of 2021. Declines in life expectancy, like declines in birth rates, may indicate that there are social and economic factors negatively influencing the overall population health and well-being of the country.

Chart and table of the U.S. birth rate from 1950 to 2025. United Nations projections are also included through the year 2100.

Graph and download economic data for Fertility Rate, Total for the United States (SPDYNTFRTINUSA) from 1960 to 2022 about fertility, rate, and USA.

In 2024, the birth rate in South Korea lay at 0.75 births per woman. The country has long been struggling with a declining birth rate, first dropping below one birth per woman in 2018.

Introduction: Though awareness of climate change rose globally with the release of former Vice President Al Gore’s movie and book An Inconvenient Truth in 2006, there has seemingly never been a connection drawn between Gore’s works and subsequent fertility trends in the United States, particularly along political lines. Objectives: The primary objective of this project is to determine whether the release of the movie and book An Inconvenient Truth in 2006 sparked an inflection point within a year or two in the United States for birth rates, and whether those rates differ between red and blue states. The secondary objective is to determine whether there was a drop in birth rates after that inflection point. Methods: This project used natality data – birth rates per state per year from 2003-2020 – from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, joined with state political party data from the 2020 Presidential election from Wisevoter. Data were cleaned using Excel and analyzed using Tableau visualizations. Results: The year 2007 was indeed an inflection point in the United States for birth rates, as both red and blue states recorded their highest birth rates at this point in the 2003-2020 span. The birth rate in red states was higher than that of blue states throughout the span but both rates had a positive correlation, running parallel throughout the span. Conclusions: The United States birth rate declined after 2007 in both red and blue states, but it is unclear whether the release of An Inconvenient Truth influenced this decline.

For most of the past two centuries, falling birth rates have been associated with societal progress. During the demographic transition, where pre-industrial societies modernize in terms of fertility and mortality, falling death rates, especially among infants and children, are the first major change. In response, as more children survive into adulthood, women have fewer children as the need to compensate for child mortality declines. This transition has happened at different times across the world and is an ongoing process, with early industrial countries being the first to transition, and Sub-Saharan African countries being the most recent to do so. Additionally, some Asian countries (particularly China through government policy) have gone through their demographic transitions at a much faster pace than those deemed more developed. Today, in countries such as Japan, Italy, and Germany, birth rates have fallen well below death rates; this is no longer considered a positive demographic trend, as it leads to natural population decline, and may create an over-aged population that could place a burden on healthcare systems.

In 2021 the live birth rate of the United Kingdom fell to 10.4 births per 1,000 population, the lowest it had been during this time period. The UK's birth rate has been declining steadily since 2010 when the birth rate was 12.9 births per 1,000 population. After 1938, the year with the highest birth rate in the UK was 1947, when the crude birth rate was 21.2 births per 1,000 population. Under two children per mother in 2021 The most recent crude live birth rate for this statistic is based on the 694,685 births, that occurred in 2021 as well as the mid-year population estimate of 67 million for the United Kingdom. It has a close relation to the fertility rate which estimates the average number of children women are expected to have in their lifetime, which was 1.53 in this reporting year. Among the constituent countries of the UK, Northern Ireland had the highest birth rate at 11.6, followed by England at 10.5, Wales at 9.3, and Scotland at 8.7. International comparisons The UK is not alone in seeing its birth and fertility rates decline dramatically in recent decades. Across the globe, fertility rates have fallen noticeably since the 1960s, with the fertility rate for Asia, Europe, and the Americas being below two in 2021. As of this year, the global fertility rate was 2.31, and was by far the highest in Africa, which had a fertility rate of 4.12, although this too has fallen from a high of 6.72 in the late 1960s. A reduction in infant mortality, as well as better access to contraception, are factors that have typically influenced declining fertility rates recently.

Chart and table of the World birth rate from 1950 to 2025. United Nations projections are also included through the year 2100.

In 2022, there were around 6.3 live births per 1,000 inhabitants in Japan, down from about 6.6 in the previous year. The total number of live births in the nation amounted to approximately 770.8 thousand in 2022.

Japan’s aging society Directly after the end of WWII, the live birth rate in Japan was over 30 per 1,000 of population. The rate has constantly dropped in the last decades after the second baby boom (between 1971 and 1974). Meanwhile, the life expectancy of the Japanese people has continued to increase, reaching about 87.7 years for women and 81.7 years for men in 2020. Due to the combination of both factors, Japan has developed into the most rapidly aging society in the world. Almost 30 percent of Japan’s population is currently aged 65 years and older, falling into the “super-aged nation” defined by international institutions and organizations. 

Decreasing number of marriages In Japan, the number of births outside of marriage is small. The Japanese government, therefore, considers the decreasing number of marriages as the driving factor behind the country’s fertility decline. As of 2022, the number of marriages per 1,000 Japanese citizens was 4.1, less than half compared to that in the early 1970s. The average age of first marriage has also risen for both men and women in recent years. This trend can be partially attributed to the increasing number of employed and therefore financially and socially independent women in the last two decades. The employment rate of women in Japan exceeded 50 percent for the first time in history in 2018.

United States Total Fertility Rate: Black data was reported at 1,639.000 % in 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of 1,675.000 % for 2021. United States Total Fertility Rate: Black data is updated yearly, averaging 2,072.250 % from Dec 1985 (Median) to 2022, with 38 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2,480.000 % in 1990 and a record low of 1,639.000 % in 2022. United States Total Fertility Rate: Black data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G013: Fertility Rate.

The statistic shows the 20 countries with the lowest fertility rates in 2024. All figures are estimates. In 2024, the fertility rate in Taiwan was estimated to be at 1.11 children per woman, making it the lowest fertility rate worldwide. Fertility rate The fertility rate is the average number of children born per woman of child-bearing age in a country. Usually, a woman aged between 15 and 45 is considered to be in her child-bearing years. The fertility rate of a country provides an insight into its economic state, as well as the level of health and education of its population. Developing countries usually have a higher fertility rate due to lack of access to birth control and contraception, and to women usually foregoing a higher education, or even any education at all, in favor of taking care of housework. Many families in poorer countries also need their children to help provide for the family by starting to work early and/or as caretakers for their parents in old age. In developed countries, fertility rates and birth rates are usually much lower, as birth control is easier to obtain and women often choose a career before becoming a mother. Additionally, if the number of women of child-bearing age declines, so does the fertility rate of a country. As can be seen above, countries like Hong Kong are a good example for women leaving the patriarchal structures and focusing on their own career instead of becoming a mother at a young age, causing a decline of the country’s fertility rate. A look at the fertility rate per woman worldwide by income group also shows that women with a low income tend to have more children than those with a high income. The United States are neither among the countries with the lowest, nor among those with the highest fertility rate, by the way. At 2.08 children per woman, the fertility rate in the US has been continuously slightly below the global average of about 2.4 children per woman over the last decade.

Graph and download economic data for Crude Birth Rate for the Republic of Korea (SPDYNCBRTINKOR) from 1960 to 2022 about birth, Korea, crude, and rate.

Chart and table of the World fertility rate from 1950 to 2025. United Nations projections are also included through the year 2100.

The outbreak of the COVID-19 in early 2020 and the recurring epidemic in later years have disturbed China’s economy. Moreover, China’s demographic dividend has been disappearing due to its fastest aging population and declining birth rate. The birth rates in eastern provinces of China are much lower than those of the western provinces. Considering the impacts of the COVID-19 and aging population, this paper focused on the relationship between birth rate and the disposable income and tried to find effective measures to raise China’s birth rate. We discovered through regression analysis that the link between per capita disposable income and birth rate is initially "reverse J" and later "inverted J", indicating that per capita disposable income will influence the birth rate. Women’s employment rate and educational level are negatively correlated with the birth rate. To raise the fertility rate in China, it is necessary to increase the marriage rate and the willingness to have children by raising the per capita disposable income and introducing effective tax relief policies.

State of Palestine (West Bank and Gaza) Crude Birth Rate: per 1000 Population data was reported at 30.500 NA in 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 30.700 NA for 2017. State of Palestine (West Bank and Gaza) Crude Birth Rate: per 1000 Population data is updated yearly, averaging 32.800 NA from Dec 1997 (Median) to 2018, with 18 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 42.700 NA in 1997 and a record low of 30.500 NA in 2018. State of Palestine (West Bank and Gaza) Crude Birth Rate: per 1000 Population data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics. The data is categorized under Global Database’s State of Palestine (West Bank and Gaza) – Table PS.G002: Vital Statistics.

In the United States, the crude birth rate in 1800 was 48.3 live births per thousand people, meaning that 4.8 percent of the population had been born in that year. Between 1815 and 1825 the crude birth rate jumped from 46.5 to 54.7 (possibly due to Florida becoming a part of the US, but this is unclear), but from this point until the Second World War the crude birth rate dropped gradually, reaching 19.2 in 1935. Through the 1940s, 50s and 60s the US experienced it's baby boom, and the birth rate reached 24.1 in 1955, before dropping again until 1980. From the 1980s until today the birth rate's decline has slowed, and is expected to reach twelve in 2020, meaning that just over 1 percent of the population will be born in 2020.

Bangladesh BD: Fertility Rate: Total: Births per Woman data was reported at 1.950 Ratio in 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of 1.981 Ratio for 2021. Bangladesh BD: Fertility Rate: Total: Births per Woman data is updated yearly, averaging 4.240 Ratio from Dec 1960 (Median) to 2022, with 63 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 6.882 Ratio in 1970 and a record low of 1.950 Ratio in 2022. Bangladesh BD: Fertility Rate: Total: Births per Woman data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Bangladesh – Table BD.World Bank.WDI: Social: Health Statistics. Total fertility rate represents the number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to live to the end of her childbearing years and bear children in accordance with age-specific fertility rates of the specified year.;(1) United Nations Population Division. World Population Prospects: 2022 Revision; (2) Statistical databases and publications from national statistical offices; (3) Eurostat: Demographic Statistics.;Weighted average;Relevance to gender indicator: it can indicate the status of women within households and a woman’s decision about the number and spacing of children.