Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander women had the highest fertility rate of any ethnicity in the United States in 2022, with about 2,237.5 births per 1,000 women. The fertility rate for all ethnicities in the U.S. was 1,656.5 births per 1,000 women. What is the total fertility rate? The total fertility rate is an estimation of the number of children who would theoretically be born per 1,000 women through their childbearing years (generally considered to be between the ages of 15 and 44) according to age-specific fertility rates. The fertility rate is different from the birth rate, in that the birth rate is the number of births in relation to the population over a specific period of time. Fertility rates around the world Fertility rates around the world differ on a country-by-country basis, and more industrialized countries tend to see lower fertility rates. For example, Niger topped the list of the countries with the highest fertility rates, and Taiwan had the lowest fertility rate.

In 2023, around 50 children were born per thousand Asian women in the United States. The highest birth rate was among Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander mothers, at 79 percent during the same year.

This dataset includes birth rates for unmarried women by age group, race, and Hispanic origin in the United States since 1970.

Methods for collecting information on marital status changed over the reporting period and have been documented in:

• Ventura SJ, Bachrach CA. Nonmarital childbearing in the United States, 1940–99. National vital statistics reports; vol 48 no 16. Hyattsville, Maryland: National Center for Health Statistics. 2000. Available from: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr48/nvs48_16.pdf. • National Center for Health Statistics. User guide to the 2013 natality public use file. Hyattsville, Maryland: National Center for Health Statistics. 2014. Available from: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data_access/VitalStatsOnline.htm.

National data on births by Hispanics origin exclude data for Louisiana, New Hampshire, and Oklahoma in 1989; for New Hampshire and Oklahoma in 1990; for New Hampshire in 1991 and 1992. Information on reporting Hispanic origin is detailed in the Technical Appendix for the 1999 public-use natality data file (see (ftp://ftp.cdc.gov/pub/Health_Statistics/NCHS/Dataset_Documentation/DVS/natality/Nat1999doc.pdf.)

All birth data by race before 1980 are based on race of the child. Starting in 1980, birth data by race are based on race of the mother.

This dataset includes teen birth rates for females by age group, race, and Hispanic origin in the United States since 1960.

Data availability varies by race and ethnicity groups. All birth data by race before 1980 are based on race of the child. Since 1980, birth data by race are based on race of the mother. For race, data are available for Black and White births since 1960, and for American Indians/Alaska Native and Asian/Pacific Islander births since 1980. Data on Hispanic origin are available since 1989. Teen birth rates for specific racial and ethnic categories are also available since 1989. From 2003 through 2015, the birth data by race were based on the “bridged” race categories (5). Starting in 2016, the race categories for reporting birth data changed; the new race and Hispanic origin categories are: Non-Hispanic, Single Race White; Non-Hispanic, Single Race Black; Non-Hispanic, Single Race American Indian/Alaska Native; Non-Hispanic, Single Race Asian; and, Non-Hispanic, Single Race Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander (5,6). Birth data by the prior, “bridged” race (and Hispanic origin) categories are included through 2018 for comparison.

National data on births by Hispanic origin exclude data for Louisiana, New Hampshire, and Oklahoma in 1989; New Hampshire and Oklahoma in 1990; and New Hampshire in 1991 and 1992. Birth and fertility rates for the Central and South American population includes other and unknown Hispanic. Information on reporting Hispanic origin is detailed in the Technical Appendix for the 1999 public-use natality data file (see ftp://ftp.cdc.gov/pub/Health_Statistics/NCHS/Dataset_Documentation/DVS/natality/Nat1999doc.pdf).

This dataset includes live births, birth rates, and fertility rates by race of mother in the United States since 1960.

Data availability varies by race and ethnicity groups. All birth data by race before 1980 are based on race of the child. Since 1980, birth data by race are based on race of the mother. For race, data are available for Black and White births since 1960, and for American Indians/Alaska Native and Asian/Pacific Islander births since 1980. Data on Hispanic origin are available since 1989. Teen birth rates for specific racial and ethnic categories are also available since 1989. From 2003 through 2015, the birth data by race were based on the “bridged” race categories (5). Starting in 2016, the race categories for reporting birth data changed; the new race and Hispanic origin categories are: Non-Hispanic, Single Race White; Non-Hispanic, Single Race Black; Non-Hispanic, Single Race American Indian/Alaska Native; Non-Hispanic, Single Race Asian; and, Non-Hispanic, Single Race Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander (5,6). Birth data by the prior, “bridged” race (and Hispanic origin) categories are included through 2018 for comparison.

SOURCES

NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, birth data (see https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/births.htm); public-use data files (see https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data_access/VitalStatsOnline.htm); and CDC WONDER (see http://wonder.cdc.gov/).

REFERENCES

1. National Office of Vital Statistics. Vital Statistics of the United States, 1950, Volume I. 1954. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsus/vsus_1950_1.pdf.

2. Hetzel AM. U.S. vital statistics system: major activities and developments, 1950-95. National Center for Health Statistics. 1997. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/misc/usvss.pdf.

3. National Center for Health Statistics. Vital Statistics of the United States, 1967, Volume I–Natality. 1969. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsus/nat67_1.pdf.

4. Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Osterman MJK, et al. Births: Final data for 2015. National vital statistics reports; vol 66 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2017. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr66/nvsr66_01.pdf.

5. Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Osterman MJK, Driscoll AK, Drake P. Births: Final data for 2016. National Vital Statistics Reports; vol 67 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2018. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nvsr/nvsr67/nvsr67_01.pdf.

6. Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Osterman MJK, Driscoll AK, Births: Final data for 2018. National vital statistics reports; vol 68 no 13. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2019. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_13.pdf.

Over the past 30 years, the birth rate in the United States has been steadily declining, and in 2022, there were 11 births per 1,000 of the population. In 1990, this figure stood at 16.7 births per 1,000 of the population. Demographics have an impact The average birth rate in the U.S. may be falling, but when broken down along ethnic and economic lines, a different picture is painted: Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander women saw the highest birth rate in 2022 among all ethnicities, and Asian women and white women both saw the lowest birth rate. Additionally, the higher the family income, the lower the birth rate; families making between 15,000 and 24,999 U.S. dollars annually had the highest birth rate of any income bracket in the States. Life expectancy at birth In addition to the declining birth rate in the U.S., the total life expectancy at birth has also reached its lowest value in recent years. Studies have shown that the life expectancy of both men and women in the United States has declined as of 2021. Declines in life expectancy, like declines in birth rates, may indicate that there are social and economic factors negatively influencing the overall population health and well-being of the country.

This dataset includes teen birth rates for females by age group, race, and Hispanic origin in the United States since 1960.

Data availability varies by race and ethnicity groups. All birth data by race before 1980 are based on race of the child. Since 1980, birth data by race are based on race of the mother. For race, data are available for Black and White births since 1960, and for American Indians/Alaska Native and Asian/Pacific Islander births since 1980. Data on Hispanic origin are available since 1989. Teen birth rates for specific racial and ethnic categories are also available since 1989. From 2003 through 2015, the birth data by race were based on the “bridged” race categories (5). Starting in 2016, the race categories for reporting birth data changed; the new race and Hispanic origin categories are: Non-Hispanic, Single Race White; Non-Hispanic, Single Race Black; Non-Hispanic, Single Race American Indian/Alaska Native; Non-Hispanic, Single Race Asian; and, Non-Hispanic, Single Race Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander (5,6). Birth data by the prior, “bridged” race (and Hispanic origin) categories are included through 2018 for comparison.

National data on births by Hispanic origin exclude data for Louisiana, New Hampshire, and Oklahoma in 1989; New Hampshire and Oklahoma in 1990; and New Hampshire in 1991 and 1992. Birth and fertility rates for the Central and South American population includes other and unknown Hispanic. Information on reporting Hispanic origin is detailed in the Technical Appendix for the 1999 public-use natality data file (see ftp://ftp.cdc.gov/pub/Health_Statistics/NCHS/Dataset_Documentation/DVS/natality/Nat1999doc.pdf).

This dataset includes teen birth rates for females by age group, race, and Hispanic origin in the United States since 1960. Data availability varies by race and ethnicity groups. All birth data by race before 1980 are based on race of the child. Since 1980, birth data by race are based on race of the mother. For race, data are available for Black and White births since 1960, and for American Indians/Alaska Native and Asian/Pacific Islander births since 1980. Data on Hispanic origin are available since 1989. Teen birth rates for specific racial and ethnic categories are also available since 1989. From 2003 through 2015, the birth data by race were based on the “bridged” race categories (5). Starting in 2016, the race categories for reporting birth data changed; the new race and Hispanic origin categories are: Non-Hispanic, Single Race White; Non-Hispanic, Single Race Black; Non-Hispanic, Single Race American Indian/Alaska Native; Non-Hispanic, Single Race Asian; and, Non-Hispanic, Single Race Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander (5,6). Birth data by the prior, “bridged” race (and Hispanic origin) categories are included through 2018 for comparison. National data on births by Hispanic origin exclude data for Louisiana, New Hampshire, and Oklahoma in 1989; New Hampshire and Oklahoma in 1990; and New Hampshire in 1991 and 1992. Birth and fertility rates for the Central and South American population includes other and unknown Hispanic. Information on reporting Hispanic origin is detailed in the Technical Appendix for the 1999 public-use natality data file (see ftp://ftp.cdc.gov/pub/Health_Statistics/NCHS/Dataset_Documentation/DVS/natality/Nat1999doc.pdf). SOURCES NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, birth data (see https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/births.htm); public-use data files (see https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data_access/VitalStatsOnline.htm); and CDC WONDER (see http://wonder.cdc.gov/). REFERENCES 1. National Office of Vital Statistics. Vital Statistics of the United States, 1950, Volume I. 1954. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsus/vsus_1950_1.pdf. 2. Hetzel AM. U.S. vital statistics system: major activities and developments, 1950-95. National Center for Health Statistics. 1997. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/misc/usvss.pdf. 3. National Center for Health Statistics. Vital Statistics of the United States, 1967, Volume I–Natality. 1969. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsus/nat67_1.pdf. 4. Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Osterman MJK, et al. Births: Final data for 2015. National vital statistics reports; vol 66 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2017. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr66/nvsr66_01.pdf. 5. Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Osterman MJK, Driscoll AK, Drake P. Births: Final data for 2016. National Vital Statistics Reports; vol 67 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2018. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nvsr/nvsr67/nvsr67_01.pdf. 6. Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Osterman MJK, Driscoll AK, Births: Final data for 2018. National vital statistics reports; vol 68 no 13. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2019. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_13.pdf.

Analysis of ‘NCHS - Teen Birth Rates for Females by Age Group, Race, and Hispanic Origin: United States’ provided by Analyst-2 (analyst-2.ai), based on source dataset retrieved from https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/681175bb-4c25-4876-9afc-4b55fd9e6920 on 26 January 2022.

--- Dataset description provided by original source is as follows ---

This dataset includes teen birth rates for females by age group, race, and Hispanic origin in the United States since 1960.

Data availability varies by race and ethnicity groups. All birth data by race before 1980 are based on race of the child. Since 1980, birth data by race are based on race of the mother. For race, data are available for Black and White births since 1960, and for American Indians/Alaska Native and Asian/Pacific Islander births since 1980. Data on Hispanic origin are available since 1989. Teen birth rates for specific racial and ethnic categories are also available since 1989. From 2003 through 2015, the birth data by race were based on the “bridged” race categories (5). Starting in 2016, the race categories for reporting birth data changed; the new race and Hispanic origin categories are: Non-Hispanic, Single Race White; Non-Hispanic, Single Race Black; Non-Hispanic, Single Race American Indian/Alaska Native; Non-Hispanic, Single Race Asian; and, Non-Hispanic, Single Race Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander (5,6). Birth data by the prior, “bridged” race (and Hispanic origin) categories are included through 2018 for comparison.

National data on births by Hispanic origin exclude data for Louisiana, New Hampshire, and Oklahoma in 1989; New Hampshire and Oklahoma in 1990; and New Hampshire in 1991 and 1992. Birth and fertility rates for the Central and South American population includes other and unknown Hispanic. Information on reporting Hispanic origin is detailed in the Technical Appendix for the 1999 public-use natality data file (see ftp://ftp.cdc.gov/pub/Health_Statistics/NCHS/Dataset_Documentation/DVS/natality/Nat1999doc.pdf).

SOURCES

NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, birth data (see https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/births.htm); public-use data files (see https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data_access/VitalStatsOnline.htm); and CDC WONDER (see http://wonder.cdc.gov/).

REFERENCES

1. National Office of Vital Statistics. Vital Statistics of the United States, 1950, Volume I. 1954. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsus/vsus_1950_1.pdf.

2. Hetzel AM. U.S. vital statistics system: major activities and developments, 1950-95. National Center for Health Statistics. 1997. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/misc/usvss.pdf.

3. National Center for Health Statistics. Vital Statistics of the United States, 1967, Volume I–Natality. 1969. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsus/nat67_1.pdf.

4. Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Osterman MJK, et al. Births: Final data for 2015. National vital statistics reports; vol 66 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2017. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr66/nvsr66_01.pdf.

5. Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Osterman MJK, Driscoll AK, Drake P. Births: Final data for 2016. National Vital Statistics Reports; vol 67 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2018. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nvsr/nvsr67/nvsr67_01.pdf.

6. Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Osterman MJK, Driscoll AK, Births: Final data for 2018. National vital statistics reports; vol 68 no 13. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2019. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_13.pdf.

--- Original source retains full ownership of the source dataset ---

In 2019, Hispanic women with no high school diploma or no college degree had higher total fertility rates (TFR) compared to women of other ethnicities. This difference changed with educational level and among women with a doctorate or professional degree, there was almost no difference in TFR between Hispanic and non-Hispanic white women. This statistic depicts the total fertility rate of U.S. women in 2019, by maternal educational attainment and ethnicity.

United States US: Fertility Rate: Total: Births per Woman data was reported at 1.800 Ratio in 2016. This records a decrease from the previous number of 1.843 Ratio for 2015. United States US: Fertility Rate: Total: Births per Woman data is updated yearly, averaging 2.002 Ratio from Dec 1960 (Median) to 2016, with 57 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.654 Ratio in 1960 and a record low of 1.738 Ratio in 1976. United States US: Fertility Rate: Total: Births per Woman data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.World Bank: Health Statistics. Total fertility rate represents the number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to live to the end of her childbearing years and bear children in accordance with age-specific fertility rates of the specified year.; ; (1) United Nations Population Division. World Population Prospects: 2017 Revision. (2) Census reports and other statistical publications from national statistical offices, (3) Eurostat: Demographic Statistics, (4) United Nations Statistical Division. Population and Vital Statistics Reprot (various years), (5) U.S. Census Bureau: International Database, and (6) Secretariat of the Pacific Community: Statistics and Demography Programme.; Weighted average; Relevance to gender indicator: it can indicate the status of women within households and a woman’s decision about the number and spacing of children.

Analysis of ‘NCHS - Natality Measures for Females by Race and Hispanic Origin: United States’ provided by Analyst-2 (analyst-2.ai), based on source dataset retrieved from https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/e96cb229-a501-4633-8635-386ec77fe5a1 on 26 January 2022.

--- Dataset description provided by original source is as follows ---

This dataset includes live births, birth rates, and fertility rates by race of mother in the United States since 1960.

Data availability varies by race and ethnicity groups. All birth data by race before 1980 are based on race of the child. Since 1980, birth data by race are based on race of the mother. For race, data are available for Black and White births since 1960, and for American Indians/Alaska Native and Asian/Pacific Islander births since 1980. Data on Hispanic origin are available since 1989. Teen birth rates for specific racial and ethnic categories are also available since 1989. From 2003 through 2015, the birth data by race were based on the “bridged” race categories (5). Starting in 2016, the race categories for reporting birth data changed; the new race and Hispanic origin categories are: Non-Hispanic, Single Race White; Non-Hispanic, Single Race Black; Non-Hispanic, Single Race American Indian/Alaska Native; Non-Hispanic, Single Race Asian; and, Non-Hispanic, Single Race Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander (5,6). Birth data by the prior, “bridged” race (and Hispanic origin) categories are included through 2018 for comparison.

SOURCES

NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, birth data (see https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/births.htm); public-use data files (see https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data_access/VitalStatsOnline.htm); and CDC WONDER (see http://wonder.cdc.gov/).

REFERENCES

1. National Office of Vital Statistics. Vital Statistics of the United States, 1950, Volume I. 1954. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsus/vsus_1950_1.pdf.

2. Hetzel AM. U.S. vital statistics system: major activities and developments, 1950-95. National Center for Health Statistics. 1997. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/misc/usvss.pdf.

3. National Center for Health Statistics. Vital Statistics of the United States, 1967, Volume I–Natality. 1969. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsus/nat67_1.pdf.

4. Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Osterman MJK, et al. Births: Final data for 2015. National vital statistics reports; vol 66 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2017. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr66/nvsr66_01.pdf.

5. Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Osterman MJK, Driscoll AK, Drake P. Births: Final data for 2016. National Vital Statistics Reports; vol 67 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2018. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nvsr/nvsr67/nvsr67_01.pdf.

6. Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Osterman MJK, Driscoll AK, Births: Final data for 2018. National vital statistics reports; vol 68 no 13. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2019. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_13.pdf.

--- Original source retains full ownership of the source dataset ---

This dataset tracks the updates made on the dataset "NCHS - Birth Rates for Unmarried Women by Age, Race, and Hispanic Origin: United States" as a repository for previous versions of the data and metadata.

In 2021, the birth rate in the United States was highest in families that had under 10,000 U.S. dollars in income per year, at 62.75 births per 1,000 women. As the income scale increases, the birth rate decreases, with families making 200,000 U.S. dollars or more per year having the second-lowest birth rate, at 47.57 births per 1,000 women. Income and the birth rate Income and high birth rates are strongly linked, not just in the United States, but around the world. Women in lower income brackets tend to have higher birth rates across the board. There are many factors at play in birth rates, such as the education level of the mother, ethnicity of the mother, and even where someone lives. The fertility rate in the United States The fertility rate in the United States has declined in recent years, and it seems that more and more women are waiting longer to begin having children. Studies have shown that the average age of the mother at the birth of their first child in the United States was 27.4 years old, although this figure varies for different ethnic origins.

Historical chart and dataset showing U.S. birth rate by year from 1950 to 2025.

Analysis of ‘NCHS - Birth Rates for Unmarried Women by Age, Race, and Hispanic Origin: United States’ provided by Analyst-2 (analyst-2.ai), based on source dataset retrieved from https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/05adf260-cbad-4811-996b-35427e1c800c on 27 January 2022.

--- Dataset description provided by original source is as follows ---

This dataset includes birth rates for unmarried women by age group, race, and Hispanic origin in the United States since 1970.

Methods for collecting information on marital status changed over the reporting period and have been documented in:

• Ventura SJ, Bachrach CA. Nonmarital childbearing in the United States, 1940–99. National vital statistics reports; vol 48 no 16. Hyattsville, Maryland: National Center for Health Statistics. 2000. Available from: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr48/nvs48_16.pdf. • National Center for Health Statistics. User guide to the 2013 natality public use file. Hyattsville, Maryland: National Center for Health Statistics. 2014. Available from: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data_access/VitalStatsOnline.htm.

National data on births by Hispanics origin exclude data for Louisiana, New Hampshire, and Oklahoma in 1989; for New Hampshire and Oklahoma in 1990; for New Hampshire in 1991 and 1992. Information on reporting Hispanic origin is detailed in the Technical Appendix for the 1999 public-use natality data file (see (ftp://ftp.cdc.gov/pub/Health_Statistics/NCHS/Dataset_Documentation/DVS/natality/Nat1999doc.pdf.)

All birth data by race before 1980 are based on race of the child. Starting in 1980, birth data by race are based on race of the mother.

SOURCES

CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, birth data (see http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/births.htm); public-use data files (see http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data_access/Vitalstatsonline.htm); and CDC WONDER (see http://wonder.cdc.gov/).

REFERENCES

1. Curtin SC, Ventura SJ, Martinez GM. Recent declines in nonmarital childbearing in the United States. NCHS data brief, no 162. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2014. Available from: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db162.pdf.

2. Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Osterman MJK, et al. Births: Final data for 2015. National vital statistics reports; vol 66 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2017. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr66/nvsr66_01.pdf.

--- Original source retains full ownership of the source dataset ---

In 2023, the birth rate among Hispanic teenagers aged 15 to 19 years was **** per 1,000 women. In comparison, the birth rate among non-Hispanic Asian teens was just *** per 1,000. This statistic shows birth rates among teenagers and young adult women in the U.S. aged 15 to 19 in 1991 to 2023, by race/ethnicity.

This statistic displays the first birth rates for women aged 35 to 39 in the United States between 1990 and 2012, by ethnicity. In 2000, non-Hispanic white women between 35 and 39 years of age had a first birth rate of 9.4 per 1,000 women. The average age of women who have their first births has been rising over the past years. Having children at later ages will impact the size, composition, and growth of the country's population.

Graph and download economic data for Crude Birth Rate for the United States (SPDYNCBRTINUSA) from 1960 to 2023 about birth, crude, rate, and USA.

This data set contains estimated teen birth rates for age group 15–19 (expressed per 1,000 females aged 15–19) by county and year.

DEFINITIONS

Estimated teen birth rate: Model-based estimates of teen birth rates for age group 15–19 (expressed per 1,000 females aged 15–19) for a specific county and year. Estimated county teen birth rates were obtained using the methods described elsewhere (1,2,3,4). These annual county-level teen birth estimates “borrow strength” across counties and years to generate accurate estimates where data are sparse due to small population size (1,2,3,4). The inferential method uses information—including the estimated teen birth rates from neighboring counties across years and the associated explanatory variables—to provide a stable estimate of the county teen birth rate. Median teen birth rate: The middle value of the estimated teen birth rates for the age group 15–19 for counties in a state. Bayesian credible intervals: A range of values within which there is a 95% probability that the actual teen birth rate will fall, based on the observed teen births data and the model.

NOTES

Data on the number of live births for women aged 15–19 years were extracted from the National Center for Health Statistics’ (NCHS) National Vital Statistics System birth data files for 2003–2015 (5).

Population estimates were extracted from the files containing intercensal and postcensal bridged-race population estimates provided by NCHS. For each year, the July population estimates were used, with the exception of the year of the decennial census, 2010, for which the April estimates were used.

Hierarchical Bayesian space–time models were used to generate hierarchical Bayesian estimates of county teen birth rates for each year during 2003–2015 (1,2,3,4).

The Bayesian analogue of the frequentist confidence interval is defined as the Bayesian credible interval. A 100*(1-α)% Bayesian credible interval for an unknown parameter vector θ and observed data vector y is a subset C of parameter space Ф such that 1-α≤P({C│y})=∫p{θ │y}dθ, where integration is performed over the set and is replaced by summation for discrete components of θ. The probability that θ lies in C given the observed data y is at least (1- α) (6).

County borders in Alaska changed, and new counties were formed and others were merged, during 2003–2015. These changes were reflected in the population files but not in the natality files. For this reason, two counties in Alaska were collapsed so that the birth and population counts were comparable. Additionally, Kalawao County, a remote island county in Hawaii, recorded no births, and census estimates indicated a denominator of 0 (i.e., no females between the ages of 15 and 19 years residing in the county from 2003 through 2015). For this reason, Kalawao County was removed from the analysis. Also , Bedford City, Virginia, was added to Bedford County in 2015 and no longer appears in the mortality file in 2015. For consistency, Bedford City was merged with Bedford County, Virginia, for the entire 2003–2015 period. Final analysis was conducted on 3,137 counties for each year from 2003 through 2015. County boundaries are consistent with the vintage 2005–2007 bridged-race population file geographies (7).