Explore how Black Sea wheat prices impact the global market, influenced by geopolitical tensions, weather conditions, and economic factors. Understand the dynamics affecting wheat production, export, and pricing in this crucial agricultural region.

Wheat fell to 545.50 USd/Bu on July 11, 2025, down 1.62% from the previous day. Over the past month, Wheat's price has risen 3.61%, but it is still 0.95% lower than a year ago, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Wheat - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Key economic indicators of the global wheat market.

Credit report of Black Sea Grain Company Lp contains unique and detailed export import market intelligence with it's phone, email, Linkedin and details of each import and export shipment like product, quantity, price, buyer, supplier names, country and date of shipment.

Order, case and number of cointegrating relationships.

Wheat export shares (percentage).

Impact of an El Niño and La Niña shocks on wheat export prices (in percent).

Abstract

Beyond causing immediate hardship and triggering a large exodus of displaced people, Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine and the blockade of its Black Sea export routes have also led to sharp increases in grain prices and raised concern about global food security. To provide information to the government for developing policies and programs to support the agricultural sector in Ukraine, the World Bank launched a nationwide survey of post-invasion farmers in cooperation with the Ministry of Agricultural Policy and Food (MAPF), with financial support from the EU, in areas controlled by Ukraine from October to December of 2022. The survey objective is to obtain information on changes in welfare, production, and productivity in the small and medium farm sector between 2021 and 2022 and to identify ways on how farmers could be most effectively supported. Data was collected via phone by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) under the monitoring of World Bank research team.

Geographic coverage

National

Analysis unit

Households

Kind of data

Sample survey data [ssd]

Sampling procedure

The frame consisted of 63,374 registered farms. The distribution of farms by size and program participation shows that most of the farms are small (85%) with farm size less than 50 ha (35,264 PSG non-applicants vs. 18,605 PSG applicants) followed by farms with 50-120 ha (7.5% with 1,634 PSG non-applicants and 3,107 PSG applicants) and farms that are not eligible for PSG participation with size greater than 120 ha (7.5% with 2,743 less than 500 ha and 2,021 greater than 500 ha).

The expected sample size for the phone survey was 2,500 farms with 10% each in the small size category from PSG applicants and non-applicants, 20% each in the farm category of 50-120 ha from PSG applicants and non-applicants, 20% from the farm size category of 120-500 ha and 20% from the farm size category of greater than 500 ha. Given the expected high non-response rate of phone interviews, all the farms with size greater than 50 ha were included in the sample and then 1,125 and 1,126 farms were randomly selected from PSG non-participants and participants in the less than 50 ha category. The final response rate was about 20% with the lowest in the greater than 500 ha category (15%) and the highest in the 50-120 ha PSG non-applicant category (28%). The survey initially targets 2, 500 farms, and eventually collected data for 2, 251 farms.

Mode of data collection

Computer Assisted Telephone Interview [cati]

Research instrument

The survey questionnaire comprised four sections namely: • Screener & Background • Household Roster • Agricultural Production • Property and Finance

Cleaning operations

Data have been collected electronically. Survey logic has been incorporated into the instrument. After data collection, mainly general data completeness and outliers have been checked. Also, all text responses to open-ended questions have been analyzed and coded if necessary.

The final data file contains data from 2,251 interviews. It was provided to the World Bank team in SPSS formats.

Response rate

The overall and cooperation response rates were 21.3% and 37.3% respectively.

Impact of an El Niño and La Niña shocks on stock-to-use ratio.

Impact of an El Niño and La Niña shocks on wheat yield anomalies (in percent).

Contemporaneous correlation between of El Niño, La Niña, and Neutral phases and main economic variables.