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Fund management activities revenue is forecast to rise at a compound annual rate of 0.7% over the five years through 2024-25 to £28.2 billion, including estimated growth of 7.8% in 2024-25. Fund managers have had to navigate turbulent markets in recent years, hit by aggressive monetary policy, geopolitical tensions and muted economic growth. Such uncertainty made investors antsy, triggering volatile capital flows and creating unstable fee income. Economic uncertainty surrounding markets amid the threat of a recession, the cost-of-living squeeze and the gilt crisis in 2022-23 all shook key investor segments, causing the first net outflow in funding in 2022 since data was first recorded. Despite conditions remaining bleak in 2023-24, financial markets made a slow recovery, with both bond and stock markets benefitting from the expectation of interest rate cuts, triggering a rally at the tail-end of the year. However, amid fierce price competition and falling fees, this wasn’t enough to offset the drop in revenue during 2023-24. Capital markets are set to perform well in 2024-25 thanks to further interest rate cuts and optimistic growth prospects supporting investment activity, driving up profit. However, fund managers exposed to US markets have seen hefty declines at the start of 2025, hit by Trump’s erratic tariff policies, which incited fears of a recession. Revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 4.4% over the five years through 2029-30 to £35 billion. Capital markets will continue to grow in 2025-26, propped up by the prospect of further rate cuts. However, equity remains vulnerable because soaring stock valuations seen in recent years can lead to a severe price correction if any negative news hits markets, hurting revenue growth. Already proving a useful tool for fund managers, AI will continue to gain momentum in the coming years, especially among smaller managers looking to improve data analytics capabilities and client offerings. Fund managers will also have to navigate the changing perceptions of ESG investments, which, although hitting the headlines over recent years, are beginning to lose the interest of investors due to their lower returns. While growth in the domestic economy may be slow in the coming years, investment companies will take advantage of growing opportunities in expanding markets, despite facing fiercer competition from foreign funds.

The Open-Ended Investment Company Activities industry's revenue is set to contract at a compound annual rate of 5.9% over the five years through 2024-25 to £3.2 billion. The total assets under management in the industry have increased over the past decade, thanks in part to the rollout of automatic enrolment into pensions and the launch of pension funds' capital invested into OEICs. High interest rates caused by soaring inflation damaged the short-term value of fixed assets in portfolios and limited interest in equities. This hampered various markets, including Real Estate, growth industries like FinTech and capital-intensive companies. The cost-of-living crisis prompted retail investors to pull funds from OEICs. UK equity funds felt it most, witnessing a record £1.8 billion outflow in May 2024, according to the Investment Association. This spike extended an existing outflow trend, with 2023 and 2022 seeing £13.6 billion and £12 billion pulled, respectively, as indicated by the Investment Association. However, as prices stabilise and consumer confidence slowly recovers, retail investors have returned to net inflows into funds. Revenue is still rebounding from the drastic hits by inflation and COVID-19, booming at 9.7% in 2024-25, supported by the anticipated sink of interest rates that will pick up investment. Revenue is expected to rise at a compound annual rate of 5.1% to £4.1 billion over the five years through 2029-30. Brexit is likely to continue to impact the industry as UK and EU regulations drift apart, increasing legal costs for OEICs serving clients in the EU. Reforms to insurance margin requirements and the pension age are likely to free up capital used for investments into OEICs. Higher clarity and digital transformation will force a change in the industry with higher domestic investment and digital capabilities being introduced. However, global equity funds are likely to continue to outpace domestic equity thanks to higher returns and liquidity.