As of July 22, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.38 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.88 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

As of December 2024, all United Kingdom government debt securities were returning positive yields, regardless of maturity. This places the yield of both UK short term bonds and long term bonds above that of major countries like Germany, France and Japan, but lower than the United States. What are government bonds? Government bonds are debt instruments where a certain amount of money is given to the issuer, in exchange for regular payments of interest over a fixed period. At the end of this period the issuer then returns the amount in full. Bonds differ from a regular loan through how they can be traded on financial markets once issued. This ability to trade bonds makes it more complex to measure the return investors receive from bonds, as the price they buy a bond for on the market may differ from the price the same bond was initially issued at. The yield is therefore calculated as what investors can expect to receive based on current market prices paid for the bond, not the value it was issued at. In total, UK government debt amounted to over 2.4 trillion British pounds in 2023 – with the majority being comprised of different types of UK government bonds. Why are inverted yield curves important? UK government bond yields over recent years have taken on a typical shape, with short term bonds having a lower yield than bonds with a maturity of 10 to 20 years. The higher yield of longer-term bonds compensates investors for the higher level of uncertainty in the future. However, if investors are sufficiently worried about both a short term economic decline, and low long term growth, they may prefer to purchase short term bonds in order to secure assets with regular interest payments in the here and now (as opposed to shares, which can lose a lot of value in a short time). This can lead to an inverted yield curve, where shorter term debt has a higher yield. Inverted yield curves are generally seen as a reliable indicator of a recession, with inverted yields occurring before most recent U.S. recessions. The major exception to this is the recession from the coronavirus pandemic – but even then, U.S. yield curves came perilously close to being inverted in mid-2019.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

The yield on US 10 Year Note Bond Yield eased to 4.22% on August 1, 2025, marking a 0.15 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.06 points, though it remains 0.43 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

The yield on Japan 10Y Bond Yield eased to 1.55% on August 1, 2025, marking a 0 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.12 points and is 0.59 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Japan 10 Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS30) from 1977-02-15 to 2025-07-31 about 30-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS2) from 1976-06-01 to 2025-07-31 about 2-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The yield on China 10Y Bond Yield eased to 1.71% on August 1, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.07 points, though it remains 0.41 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. China 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

The yield on Germany 10Y Bond Yield eased to 2.67% on August 1, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.05 points and is 0.51 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Germany 10-Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

This data set contains the U.S. Treasury yield curve rates on a daily basis for a variety of maturities ranging from 1-month bills to 30-year bonds. Panel-formatted, it can be used for analyses of term structures of interest rates, forecasting of monetary policy, and time-series analysis of sovereign risk-free standards. It is especially appropriate for empirical applications of finance including bond pricing, cost of borrowing by municipalities, and macro-financial risk measurement.

This is a no-arbitrage dynamic term structure model, implemented as in Kim and Wright using the methodology of Kim and Orphanides . The underlying model is the standard affine Gaussian model with three factors that are latent (i.e., the factors are defined only statistically and do not have a specific economic meaning). The model is parameterized in a maximally flexible way (i.e., it is the most general model of its kind with three factors that are econometrically identified). In the estimation of the parameters of the model, data on survey forecasts of 3-month Treasury bill (T-bill) rate are used in addition to yields data in order to help address the small sample problems that often pervade econometric estimation with persistent time series like bond yields.

The yield on Mexico 10Y Bond Yield held steady at 9.44% on July 29, 2025. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.31 points, though it remains 0.71 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Mexico 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for Canada (IRLTLT01CAM156N) from Jan 1955 to Jun 2025 about long-term, Canada, 10-year, bonds, yield, government, interest rate, interest, and rate.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 20-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Inflation-Indexed (DFII20) from 2004-07-27 to 2025-07-31 about 20-year, TIPS, maturity, securities, Treasury, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

The yield on Australia 10Y Bond Yield eased to 4.22% on August 1, 2025, marking a 0.05 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.07 points and is 0.18 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Australia 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

The yield on Canada 10Y Bond Yield eased to 3.39% on August 1, 2025, marking a 0.08 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.03 points and is 0.39 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Canada 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS5) from 1962-01-02 to 2025-07-24 about maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, 5-year, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield Relative to Yield on 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (BAA10Y) from 1986-01-02 to 2025-07-30 about Baa, spread, 10-year, maturity, bonds, Treasury, yield, corporate, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield (DBAA) from 1986-01-02 to 2025-07-30 about Baa, bonds, yield, corporate, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

As of July 18, 2025, the major economy with the highest yield on 10-year government bonds was Turkey, with a yield of ** percent. This is due to the risks investors take when investing in Turkey, notably due to high inflation rates potentially eradicating any profits made when using a foreign currency to investing in securities denominated in Turkish lira. Of the major developed economies, United Kingdom had one the highest yield on 10-year government bonds at this time with **** percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at **** percent. How does inflation influence the yields of government bonds? Inflation reduces purchasing power over time. Due to this, investors seek higher returns to offset the anticipated decrease in purchasing power resulting from rapid price rises. In countries with high inflation, government bond yields often incorporate investor expectations and risk premiums, resulting in comparatively higher rates offered by these bonds. Why are government bond rates significant? Government bond rates are an important indicator of financial markets, serving as a benchmark for borrowing costs, interest rates, and investor sentiment. They affect the cost of government borrowing, influence the price of various financial instruments, and serve as a reflection of expectations regarding inflation and economic growth. For instance, in financial analysis and investing, people often use the 10-year U.S. government bond rates as a proxy for the longer-term risk-free rate.