As of July 22, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.38 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.88 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

The yield on France 10Y Bond Yield rose to 3.49% on December 1, 2025, marking a 0.07 percentage points increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.04 points and is 0.57 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. France 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on December of 2025.

View market daily updates and historical trends for 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread. from United States. Source: Department of the Treasury. Track economi…

U.S. ten-year government bonds have provided significantly higher yields compared to German ten-year bonds since 2008, with the former yielding 4.42 percent in May 2025 compared to 2.56 percent for the latter. Being safe but low-return investments, treasury bond yields are generally considered an indicator of investor confidence about the economy. A rising yield indicates falling rates and falling demand, meaning that investors prefer to invest in higher-risk, higher-reward investments; a falling yield suggests the opposite.

The yield on Japan 10Y Bond Yield eased to 1.86% on December 2, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage points decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.20 points and is 0.78 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Japan 10 Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on December of 2025.

The yield on China 10Y Bond Yield held steady at 1.83% on December 2, 2025. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.07 points, though it remains 0.16 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. China 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on December of 2025.

The yield on Netherlands 10Y Bond Yield held steady at 2.90% on December 2, 2025. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.08 points and is 0.62 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Netherlands 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on December of 2025.

Source is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/"NAME OF MEASURE" Column names are "Name of Measure" from FRED's catalog.

Group 1: Yield Curve Indicators These focus on the shape of the Treasury yield curve, comparing longer-term to shorter-term rates. They are primarily used to: Signal Economic Expectations: A normal curve (longer-term rates higher) suggests expectations of growth and possibly inflation. A flattening or inverted curve (short-term rates near or above long-term) could signal a potential slowdown or recession.

Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Expectations These spreads look at the difference between Treasury yields and the Federal Funds Rate, the primary tool of monetary policy. They indicate: Market vs. Fed Outlook: Widening spreads could suggest the market expects faster rate hikes or higher long-term inflation than the Fed is signaling. Narrowing spreads could mean the opposite. Risk-Taking: When these spreads widen, it can be a sign of investors moving from safe Treasuries to riskier assets in search of yield.

Group 3: Credit Risk and Market Sentiment These spreads focus on corporate bond yields relative to Treasuries, highlighting the added compensation investors require for holding riskier corporate debt. They signal: Credit Conditions: Widening spreads suggest deteriorating credit conditions or lower risk tolerance among investors. Narrowing spreads suggest the opposite. Economic Confidence: Investors often demand higher premiums for corporate bonds during economic uncertainty, widening these spreads.

Group 4: Breakeven Inflation Rates The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 30-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (BC_30YEAR) and 30-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (TC_30YEAR). The latest value implies what market participants expect inflation to be in the next 30 years, on average.

Graph and download economic data for Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements Award Rate (RRPONTSYAWARD) from 2013-09-23 to 2025-12-01 about reverse repos, overnight, Treasury, securities, sales, rate, and USA.

Key information about Indonesia Policy Rate

• Indonesia cash rate (Policy Rate: Month End: Indonesia: BI-Rate) was set at 4.75 % pa in Nov 2025, compared with 4.75 % pa in the previous Oct 2025.
• Indonesia Policy Rate averaged 4.00 % pa and is updated monthly, available from Jun 2015 to Nov 2025.
• The data reached an all-time high of 6.25 % pa in Aug 2024 and a record low of 3.50 % pa in Jul 2022.

The Bank of Indonesia announced 7 Days Reverse Repo Rate as new policy rate effective August 19th, 2016. For Policy Rate prior to August 2016, please refer to the 1 Month Bank Indonesia Certificates Auction Rate. From 21 December 2023, Bank Indonesia will change the name of its policy rate to BI Rate, replacing the BI 7-Day Reverse Repo. The new name doesn't change the meaning or objectives of the BI-Rates as the monetary policy stance of Bank Indonesia, with operationalisation still referring to Bank Indonesia reverse repo transaction with a tenor of seven days. [COVID-19-IMPACT]


Related information about Indonesia Policy Rate

• In the latest reports, Indonesia Short Term Interest Rate: Month End: Indonesia: 3 Months Interbank was reported at 5.46 % pa in Nov 2025.
• Its Long Term Interest Rate (Long Term Interest Rate: Month End: Indonesia: Government Bond Yield: 10 Years) was reported at 6.27 % pa in Nov 2025.
• Indonesia Exchange Rate against USD averaged 16,703.05 (USD/IDR) in Nov 2025.
• Its Real Effective Exchange Rate was 106.42 in Oct 2025.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

This Dataset contains weekly data on Cash Reserve Ratio, Cash-Deposit Ratio, Credit-Deposit Ratio, Incremental Credit-Deposit Ratio, Incremental Investment-Deposit Ratio, Investment-Deposit Ratio, Statutory Liquidity Ratio, 10-Year G-Sec Par Yield (FBIL), Treasury Bill (Primary) Yield, Bank Rate, Base Rate, Call Money Rate (Weighted Average), Fixed Reverse Repo Rate, Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) Rate, MCLR (Overnight), Policy Repo Rate, Savings Deposit Rate, Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) Rate, Term Deposit Rate More than 1 Year, INR-Euro Spot Rate, INR-USD Spot Rate

Note: 1) FBIL Reference rate means the rates of currency pairs computed and published on a daily basis, on all Mumbai business days, by Financial Benchmarks India Private Limited. 2) FBIL has taken over from RBI, the computation and dissemination of reference rate for spot USD/INR and exchange rate of other major currencies with effect from July 10, 2018.

The dataset contains year- and month-wise compiled data on policy rates fixed by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for various financial policy and securities. These include data relating to Policy Repo Rate, Reverse Repo Rate, Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) Rate, Bank Rate, Base Rate, MCLR (Overnight), Term Deposit Rate greater than Year, Savings Deposit Rate, Call Money Rate (Weighted Average), 91, 182, 654-Day Treasury Bill (Primary) Yield, 10-Year G-Sec Par Yield (FBIL), etc.

Notes:

1. Repo rate is the rate at which the RBI lends money to commercial banks in the event of any shortfall of funds
2. Reverse Repo rate is the rate at which the RBI borrows money from commercial banks in the event of any shortfall of funds
3. Standing Deposit Facility is an overnight deposit facility that allows banks to park excess liquidity (money) and earn interest
4. Marginal Standing Facility rate is the interest rate at which RBI provides money to the scheduled commercial banks who are facing acute shortage of liquidity
5. The call money rate is the benchmark interest rate that banks charge brokers who are borrowing the money to fund margin loans. The call money rate, also known as the broker loan rate, typically isn't available to individuals, instead, investors pay the call money rate plus a service fee on a margin account.
6. Treasury bills or T-bills, which are money market instruments, are short term debt instruments issued by the Government of India and are presently issued in three tenors, namely, 91 days, 182 days and 364 days.
7. Government Securities (G-sec_ yield is a method to evaluate the broader trend of interest rates in the economy
8. Marginal Cost of Funds-based Lending Rate (MCLR) is the minimum rate at which a bank can lend to its customers on certain loans

Key information about Pakistan Short Term Interest Rate

• Pakistan Short Term Interest Rate: Month End: Pakistan: Interbank Rate: Karachi Average: 3 Months was reported at 11.17 % pa in Oct 2025, compared with 11.07 % pa in the previous month.
• Pakistan Short Term Interest Rate data is updated monthly, available from Nov 2004 to Oct 2025.
• The data reached an all-time high of 23.17 % pa in Aug 2023 and a record low of 5.24 % pa in Dec 2004.
• Short Term Interest Rate is reported by reported by CEIC Data.

CEIC calculates monthly Short Term Interest Rate from daily 3 months Interbank Rates. The State Bank of Pakistan provides 3 months Interbank Rates.


Related information about Pakistan Short Term Interest Rate

• In the latest reports, Pakistan Long Term Interest Rate: Month End: Pakistan: Government Bond Yield: 10 Years was reported at 11.50 % pa in Nov 2025.
• The cash rate (State Bank of Pakistan: Reverse Repo Rate) was set at 12.00 % pa in Nov 2025.
• Pakistan Exchange Rate against USD averaged 281.27 (USD/PKR) in Oct 2025.

Key information about China Short Term Interest Rate

• China Short Term Interest Rate: Month End: SHIBOR: 3 Months was reported at 1.58 % pa in Nov 2025, compared with 1.60 % pa in the previous month.
• China Short Term Interest Rate data is updated monthly, available from Oct 2006 to Nov 2025.
• The data reached an all-time high of 6.39 % pa in Jun 2011 and a record low of 1.21 % pa in Apr 2009.
• Short Term Interest Rate is reported by reported by National Interbank Funding Center.

Related information about China Short Term Interest Rate

• In the latest reports, China Treasury Bond Yield: Interbank: Spot Yield: 10 year was reported at 1.86 % pa in Nov 2025.
• The cash rate (Policy Rate: Month End: China: 7 Day Reverse Repurchase Rate) was set at 1.40 % pa in Nov 2025.
• China Exchange Rate against USD averaged 7.12 (USD/RMB) in Oct 2025.

Key information about Pakistan Policy Rate

• Pakistan cash rate (State Bank of Pakistan: Reverse Repo Rate) was set at 13.00 % pa in Feb 2025, compared with 13.00 % pa in the previous Jan 2025.
• Pakistan Policy Rate averaged 12.00 % pa and is updated monthly, available from Feb 1992 to Feb 2025.
• The data reached an all-time high of 23.00 % pa in May 2024 and a record low of 6.25 % pa in Dec 2017.

Related information about Pakistan Policy Rate

• In the latest reports, Pakistan Short Term Interest Rate: Month End: Pakistan: Interbank Rate: Karachi Average: 3 Months was reported at 22.91 % pa in Jun 2023.
• Its Long Term Interest Rate (Long Term Interest Rate: Month End: Pakistan: Government Bond Yield: 10 Years) was reported at 11.00 % pa in Jun 2023.
• Pakistan Exchange Rate against USD averaged 286.58 (USD/PKR) in Jun 2023.
• Its Real Effective Exchange Rate was 103.70 in Dec 2024.

Repo Rate in the United States remained unchanged at 5.37 on Tuesday April 9. This dataset provides - United States Repo Rate- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Uruguay was last recorded at 8 percent. This dataset provides - Uruguay Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.