As of April 16, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.34 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.86 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

As of December 30, 2024, the major economy with the highest yield on 10-year government bonds was Turkey, with a yield of ***** percent. This is due to the risks investors take when investing in Turkey, notably due to high inflation rates potentially eradicating any profits made when using a foreign currency to investing in securities denominated in Turkish lira. Of the major developed economies, United States had one the highest yield on 10-year government bonds at this time with **** percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at **** percent. How does inflation influence the yields of government bonds? Inflation reduces purchasing power over time. Due to this, investors seek higher returns to offset the anticipated decrease in purchasing power resulting from rapid price rises. In countries with high inflation, government bond yields often incorporate investor expectations and risk premiums, resulting in comparatively higher rates offered by these bonds. Why are government bond rates significant? Government bond rates are an important indicator of financial markets, serving as a benchmark for borrowing costs, interest rates, and investor sentiment. They affect the cost of government borrowing, influence the price of various financial instruments, and serve as a reflection of expectations regarding inflation and economic growth. For instance, in financial analysis and investing, people often use the 10-year U.S. government bond rates as a proxy for the longer-term risk-free rate.

Although the many central banks publish the yield-to-maturity of their Treasury bonds, the monthly returns earned by investors are typically not publicly available.This data set calculates monthly returns for:United States (starting 1947)Germany (starting 1972)Japan (starting 1974)Australia (starting 1969)Norway (starting 1921)Sweden (starting 1920)

In December 2024, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was **** percent, forecasted to decrease to reach **** percent by August 2025. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten-year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

The COVID-19 pandemic is a real shock to society and business and financial markets. The government bond market is an essential part of financial markets, especially in difficult times, because it is a source of government funding. The majority of existing ESG studies report positive impacts on corporate financial performance regarding environmental, social, and governance. Thus, understanding governments’ financial practices and their relevant ESG implications is insufficient. This research aims to value the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on different government bond curve sectors. We try to identify the reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic in the government bond market and analyze separate tenors of government bond yields in different regions. We have chosen Germany and the United States government bond yields of 10, 5, and 3 years tenor for the analysis. As independent variables, we have chosen daily cases of COVID-19 and daily deaths from COVID-19 at the country and global levels. We used daily data from 02 January 2020–19 March 2021, and divided this period into three stages depending on the COVID-19 pandemic data. We employed the methods of correlation-regression analysis (ordinary least squares and least squares with breakpoints) and VAR-based impulse response functions to evaluate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on government bond yields both in the long and short run. Our analysis revealed the impact of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic on government bond yields differs depending on the country and the assessment period. The short-term responses vary in direction, strength, and duration; the long-term response of Germany’s yields appeared to be more negative (indicating the decrease of the yields), while the response of the United States yields appeared to be more positive (i.e., increase of yields).

At the end of 2024, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond was **** percent. Despite the increase in recent years, the highest yields could be observed in the early 1990s. What affects bond prices? The factors that play a big role in valuation and interest in government bonds are interest rate and inflation. If inflation is expected to be high, investors will demand a higher return on bonds. Country credit ratings indicate how stable the economy is and thus also influence the government bond prices. Risk and bonds Finally, when investors are worried about the bond issuer’s ability to pay at the end of the term, they demand a higher interest rate. For the U.S. Treasury, the vast majority of investors consider the investment to be perfectly safe. Ten-year government bonds from other countries show that countries seen as more risky have a higher bond return. On the other hand, countries in which investors do not expect economic growth have a lower yield.

China Policy Financial Bond Yield: Interbank: Spot Yield: 12 year data was reported at 3.831 % pa in Jul 2020. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.579 % pa for Jun 2020. China Policy Financial Bond Yield: Interbank: Spot Yield: 12 year data is updated monthly, averaging 4.311 % pa from Jul 2008 (Median) to Jul 2020, with 145 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 5.915 % pa in Jan 2014 and a record low of 3.246 % pa in Oct 2016. China Policy Financial Bond Yield: Interbank: Spot Yield: 12 year data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by National Interbank Funding Center. The data is categorized under China Premium Database’s Money Market, Interest Rate, Yield and Exchange Rate – Table CN.MF: NIFC: Policy Financial Bond Yield: Spot Yield.

This dataset contains high-frequency sovereign bond prices and yields across multiple maturities and countries, including Australia (AU) and the United States (US). The data spans several time points and includes detailed pricing for 1-month to 30-year government securities. This dataset enables macro-financial analysis of yield curve dynamics, monetary policy impacts, sovereign risk pricing, and cross-country bond market behavior. Originally used to contextualize U.S. municipal borrowing costs relative to national benchmarks, this data supports robust time-series econometric modeling.

The yield on China 10Y Bond Yield rose to 1.67% on July 14, 2025, marking a 0 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.05 points, though it remains 0.58 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. China 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Please refer to: https://data.imf.org/en/news/accessing%20international%20financial%20statistics

This table contains 71 series, with data starting from 1934 (not all combinations necessarily have data for all years). This table contains data described by the following dimensions (Not all combinations are available): Geography (1 items: Canada ...), Rates (71 items: Bank rate; last Tuesday or last Thursday; Bank rate; Chartered bank administered interest rates - prime business; Chartered bank - consumer loan rate ...).

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates, Government Securities, Treasury Bills for Brazil (INTGSTBRM193N) from Jan 1995 to May 2025 about Brazil, bills, securities, Treasury, government, interest rate, interest, and rate.

The yield on Germany 10Y Bond Yield rose to 2.69% on July 11, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.21 points and is 0.19 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Germany 10-Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The yield on France 10Y Bond Yield rose to 3.43% on July 14, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.21 points and is 0.32 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. France 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

MFCR Forecast: Treasury Bond Yield: 10 Years data was reported at 4.000 % pa in Dec 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 4.100 % pa for Sep 2025. MFCR Forecast: Treasury Bond Yield: 10 Years data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.265 % pa from Mar 2017 (Median) to Dec 2025, with 36 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.580 % pa in Mar 2023 and a record low of 0.770 % pa in Jun 2017. MFCR Forecast: Treasury Bond Yield: 10 Years data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Ministry of Finance of the Czech Republic. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Czech Republic – Table CZ.M009: Treasury Bond Yield: Forecast: Ministry of Finance of the Czech Republic.

This analysis presents a rigorous exploration of financial data, incorporating a diverse range of statistical features. By providing a robust foundation, it facilitates advanced research and innovative modeling techniques within the field of finance.

Dow Jones Industrials Index Forecast: Mixed Signals Ahead

Financial data:

• Historical daily stock prices (open, high, low, close, volume)

• Fundamental data (e.g., market capitalization, price to earnings P/E ratio, dividend yield, earnings per share EPS, price to earnings growth, debt-to-equity ratio, price-to-book ratio, current ratio, free cash flow, projected earnings growth, return on equity, dividend payout ratio, price to sales ratio, credit rating)

• Technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD, average directional index, aroon oscillator, stochastic oscillator, on-balance volume, accumulation/distribution A/D line, parabolic SAR indicator, bollinger bands indicators, fibonacci, williams percent range, commodity channel index)

Machine learning features:

• Feature engineering based on financial data and technical indicators

• Sentiment analysis data from social media and news articles

• Macroeconomic data (e.g., GDP, unemployment rate, interest rates, consumer spending, building permits, consumer confidence, inflation, producer price index, money supply, home sales, retail sales, bond yields)

Potential Applications:

• Stock price prediction

• Portfolio optimization

• Algorithmic trading

• Market sentiment analysis

• Risk management

Use Cases:

• Researchers investigating the effectiveness of machine learning in stock market prediction

• Analysts developing quantitative trading Buy/Sell strategies

• Individuals interested in building their own stock market prediction models

• Students learning about machine learning and financial applications

Additional Notes:

• The dataset may include different levels of granularity (e.g., daily, hourly)

• Data cleaning and preprocessing are essential before model training

• Regular updates are recommended to maintain the accuracy and relevance of the data

This analysis presents a rigorous exploration of financial data, incorporating a diverse range of statistical features. By providing a robust foundation, it facilitates advanced research and innovative modeling techniques within the field of finance.

Brookfield Finance (BNH) Long-Term Bond Forecast: A Glimpse into the Future

Financial data:

• Historical daily stock prices (open, high, low, close, volume)

• Fundamental data (e.g., market capitalization, price to earnings P/E ratio, dividend yield, earnings per share EPS, price to earnings growth, debt-to-equity ratio, price-to-book ratio, current ratio, free cash flow, projected earnings growth, return on equity, dividend payout ratio, price to sales ratio, credit rating)

• Technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD, average directional index, aroon oscillator, stochastic oscillator, on-balance volume, accumulation/distribution A/D line, parabolic SAR indicator, bollinger bands indicators, fibonacci, williams percent range, commodity channel index)

Machine learning features:

• Feature engineering based on financial data and technical indicators

• Sentiment analysis data from social media and news articles

• Macroeconomic data (e.g., GDP, unemployment rate, interest rates, consumer spending, building permits, consumer confidence, inflation, producer price index, money supply, home sales, retail sales, bond yields)

Potential Applications:

• Stock price prediction

• Portfolio optimization

• Algorithmic trading

• Market sentiment analysis

• Risk management

Use Cases:

• Researchers investigating the effectiveness of machine learning in stock market prediction

• Analysts developing quantitative trading Buy/Sell strategies

• Individuals interested in building their own stock market prediction models

• Students learning about machine learning and financial applications

Additional Notes:

• The dataset may include different levels of granularity (e.g., daily, hourly)

• Data cleaning and preprocessing are essential before model training

• Regular updates are recommended to maintain the accuracy and relevance of the data

The yield on Indonesia 10Y Bond Yield rose to 6.58% on July 14, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.11 points and is 0.37 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Indonesia 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

China Policy Financial Bond Yield: Interbank: Spot Yield: 8 year data was reported at 3.667 % pa in Jul 2020. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.406 % pa for Jun 2020. China Policy Financial Bond Yield: Interbank: Spot Yield: 8 year data is updated monthly, averaging 4.048 % pa from Jul 2008 (Median) to Jul 2020, with 145 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 5.762 % pa in Jan 2014 and a record low of 2.796 % pa in Dec 2008. China Policy Financial Bond Yield: Interbank: Spot Yield: 8 year data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by National Interbank Funding Center. The data is categorized under China Premium Database’s Money Market, Interest Rate, Yield and Exchange Rate – Table CN.MF: NIFC: Policy Financial Bond Yield: Spot Yield.

The yield on India 10Y Bond Yield rose to 6.31% on July 14, 2025, marking a 0 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.04 points and is 0.67 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. India 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.