U.S. ten-year government bonds have provided significantly higher yields compared to German ten-year bonds since 2008, with the former yielding 4.36 percent in November 2024 compared to 2.31 percent for the latter. Being safe but low-return investments, treasury bond yields are generally considered an indicator of investor confidence about the economy. A rising yield indicates falling rates and falling demand, meaning that investors prefer to invest in higher-risk, higher-reward investments; a falling yield suggests the opposite.
In 2023, the biggest green bond issuer in Germany was the Federal Republic of Germany, with 18.7 billion U.S. dollars worth of green bonds issued in 2023. KfW and Deutsche Bank were also the other two largest issuers in the country, with bonds amounting to 14 billion U.S. dollars and 3.8 billion U.S. dollars, respectively.
The average yearly yield of German10-year government bonds has shown a significant downward trend from 1990 to 2023. Starting at nearly nine percent in 1990, yields steadily declined, with slight fluctuations, reaching a low of -0.51 percent in 2020. After 2020, yields began to rise again, reflecting recent increases in interest rates and inflation expectations. This long-term decline indicates decreasing inflation and interest rates in Australia over the past decades, with recent economic conditions prompting a reversal in bond yields.
German government bond (Bund) yields mostly decreased between October 2023 and October 2024. For instance, the 1-year bond yield dropped from 3.58 percent to 2.58 percent, and the 30-year yield fell from three percent to 2.52 percent. The decline in yields was consistent across both short- and long-term maturities during this period.
Securities with a maturity date of ten years were the most important aspect of Germany's government debt in 2015, 2020, 2023, and 2024. 10-year federal bonds consistently make up nearly half of all outstanding government debt securities throughout the period considered.
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United States Gross Purchases by Foreigners: Germany: US Govt Agency Bonds data was reported at 675.000 USD mn in May 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 425.000 USD mn for Apr 2018. United States Gross Purchases by Foreigners: Germany: US Govt Agency Bonds data is updated monthly, averaging 179.000 USD mn from Jan 1977 (Median) to May 2018, with 497 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.717 USD bn in May 2005 and a record low of 0.000 USD mn in Feb 1992. United States Gross Purchases by Foreigners: Germany: US Govt Agency Bonds data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by US Department of Treasury. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.Z041: Foreign Purchases and Sales in Long Term Securities: European Countries.
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Germany DB: AB: NI: Bank Savings Bonds data was reported at 2.110 EUR bn in Mar 2020. This records a decrease from the previous number of 2.147 EUR bn for Feb 2020. Germany DB: AB: NI: Bank Savings Bonds data is updated monthly, averaging 3.748 EUR bn from Dec 1968 (Median) to Mar 2020, with 616 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 5.067 EUR bn in Dec 2011 and a record low of 0.017 EUR bn in Dec 1968. Germany DB: AB: NI: Bank Savings Bonds data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Deutsche Bundesbank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Germany – Table DE.KB022: Deposits and Borrowing from Domestic Enterprises and Households: by Creditor Group.
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Germany Deposits: Non MFI: FI: DO: Savings Deposits & Bonds data was reported at 292.722 EUR bn in Mar 2020. This records a decrease from the previous number of 295.149 EUR bn for Feb 2020. Germany Deposits: Non MFI: FI: DO: Savings Deposits & Bonds data is updated monthly, averaging 271.399 EUR bn from Dec 1964 (Median) to Mar 2020, with 664 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 389.149 EUR bn in Dec 1998 and a record low of 30.450 EUR bn in Dec 1964. Germany Deposits: Non MFI: FI: DO: Savings Deposits & Bonds data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Deutsche Bundesbank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Germany – Table DE.KB018: Deposits and Borrowing from Non Banks: by Category of Banks.
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Germany LB: Deposits: Non MFI: Bank Savings Bonds data was reported at 0.228 EUR bn in Mar 2020. This records a decrease from the previous number of 0.258 EUR bn for Feb 2020. Germany LB: Deposits: Non MFI: Bank Savings Bonds data is updated monthly, averaging 0.330 EUR bn from Jan 1968 (Median) to Mar 2020, with 627 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.513 EUR bn in Feb 2009 and a record low of 0.001 EUR bn in May 1970. Germany LB: Deposits: Non MFI: Bank Savings Bonds data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Deutsche Bundesbank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Germany – Table DE.KB024: Principal Assets and Liabilities of Banks: by Category of Banks.
German private households had 120.7 billion euros worth of assets in savings bonds, as of 2023. This was a very significant increase compared to 2022. Savings bonds are an investment option basically between a savings account and fixed-interest securities. The interest rate is determined for the whole duration period (up to ten years) and therefore manageable in advance.
The value of newly issued covered bonds in Germany significantly declined between 2003 and 2023. In 2023, the value of covered bonds issued in the country amounted to 65.7 billion euros, marking a substantial decline compared to 2003 when it surpassed 200 billion euros.
Between 2003 and 2023, the value of outstanding covered bonds in Germany experienced an overall decline. In 2003, the worth of outstanding covered bonds in the country surpassed one trillion euros and has declined ever since before starting to increase again in 2020. In 2023, it amounted to over 400 billion euros, a slight increase compared to the previous year.
As of January 7, 2025, Germany's bond market displayed a positive spread of 28.1 basis points between 10-year and 2-year yields, indicating long-term rates above short-term ones. The 5-year versus 2-year spread was also positive, at 7.8 basis points. On the other hand, the 2-year versus 1-year spread was negative, at -15 basis points, suggesting a mildly inverted yield curve in shorter maturities. Negative spreads indicate a (partially) inverted yield curve. This often signals investor pessimism about short-term economic prospects, as investors seek the relative safety of long-term bonds, pushing those yields down relative to shorter-term bonds. An inverted yield curve is typically interpreted as a potential indicator of economic slowdown or recession, as it reflects expectations of lower interest rates in the future to stimulate the economy.
The money market yield on German one-year treasury discount papers nearly reached 3.24 percent on June 9, 2024. This value is considerably higher than the values of -0.8 found in March 2020, as investors were looking for secure investments during the financial crash caused by the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Negative bond yields mean that investors receive less money at the bond's maturity than the original purchase price of the bond, owing to high demand for the bond on money or capital markets.
As of December 31, 2023, Germany issued green, sustainable, and social (GSS) debt worth a total of approximately 334 billion U.S. dollars, out of which 287 billion U.S. dollars were from green bonds issuance.
Germany and Sweden are the leading countries in terms of green bonds issuance volume, with Norway, Spain, and France completing the top five. Both countries issued 117 green bonds in 2023. Green bonds are fixed income securities which finance investments with environmental or climate-related benefits. The investments can be targeted at new or existing projects on renewable energy, energy efficiency, sustainable waste management, sustainable land use, efficient buildings, clean transportation, sustainable water management, or climate change adaptation.
In January 2020, prior to the onset of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, three of the seven largest economies by GDP had negative yields for two-year government bonds (Japan, Germany and France). With the onset of the pandemic, two-year bond yields in these countries actually rose slightly - in contrast to the other major economies, where yields fell over this period. As of December 2024, yields for two-year government bonds exhibited fluctuations across all countries. Notably, Japan showed a slight upward trend, while China experienced a modest decline.Negative yields assume that investors lack confidence in economic growth, meaning many investments (such as stocks) may lose value. Therefore, it is preferable to take a small loss on government debt that carries almost no risk to the investor, than risk a larger loss on other investments. As both the yen and euro are considered very safe assets, Japanese, German and French bonds were already being held by many investors prior to the pandemic as a hedge against economic downturn. Therefore, with the announcement of fiscal responses to the pandemic by many governments around March 2020, the value of these assets rose as confidence increased (slightly) that the worst case may be avoided. At the same time, yields on bonds with a higher return fell, as investors sought out investments with a higher return that were still considered safe.
Government bond spreads as of October 30, 2024, varied widely among the largest economies when compared to German Bunds and U.S. Treasury notes. Australia's bond spread was the higest against both, with 217.6 basis points (bps) over Germany and 27.1 bps over the U.S. In contrast, China and Japan display negative spreads, with Japan having the lowest spread at -328.1 bps against U.S. Treasuries. Italy, the United Kingdom, and Canada showed moderate spreads. Positive bond spreads indicate that a country’s government bonds have higher yields compared to the benchmark bonds - in this case, the German Bunds and U.S. Treasury notes. Higher spreads often signal perceived higher risk or economic uncertainty, as investors demand greater returns for holding these bonds. expectations. Conversely, negative spreads mean that these bonds offer lower yields than the benchmark. Negative spreads often indicate strong investor confidence, safe-haven status, or lower inflation expectations, as investors are willing to accept lower returns for the perceived stability of these bonds.
Of the largest economies by GDP, the United States saw the sharpest fall in absolute terms for 10-year government bond yields due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. From a level of 1.51 percent in January 2020, yields on 10-year government bonds fell to 0.65 percent by April 2020, and had further fallen to 0.53 percent by July 2020 before starting to recover towards the end of the year. Conversely, countries that went into 2020 with already low bond yields like Japan, Germany and France actually saw a small increase in March 2020 - although these already low yields mean that these small changes are significant in relative terms. As of December 2024, the countries with the highest 10-year yields are the United Kingdom, the United States and Australia with 4.66, 4.54 and 4.46 percent, respectively.
Green bonds are fixed income securities which finance investments with environmental or climate-related benefits. Europe is a world leader in the issuance of green bonds, with a total issuance of 228.6 billion U.S. dollars in green bonds issued in 2022. Germany issued the by far the largest amount of green bonds in Europe, amounting to over 61 billion U.S. dollars.
U.S. ten-year government bonds have provided significantly higher yields compared to German ten-year bonds since 2008, with the former yielding 4.36 percent in November 2024 compared to 2.31 percent for the latter. Being safe but low-return investments, treasury bond yields are generally considered an indicator of investor confidence about the economy. A rising yield indicates falling rates and falling demand, meaning that investors prefer to invest in higher-risk, higher-reward investments; a falling yield suggests the opposite.