This statistic presents the forecasted percentage change a no-deal Brexit would have on major economic indicators. In this scenario the United Kingdom's GDP is estimated to fall by eight percent, with house prices also predicted to decline by as much as 30 percent.

While a deal between Britain and the European Union was reached in November 2018, the deal must survive a parliamentary vote in order for it to be implemented. In the event that the vote doesn't go through parliament a no-deal Brexit would be the default scenario.

UK Gas decreased 26.27 GBp/Thm or 20.95% since the beginning of 2025, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. UK Natural Gas - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

In the fourth quarter of 2024, the value of exports from the United Kingdom amounted to approximately 206.3 billion British pounds, while imports to the country amounted to around 217.8 billion pounds, resulting in a trade deficit of around 11.5 billion pounds in this quarter. During this time period, the value of UK exports was highest in the fourth quarter of 2022, with the value of imports peaking in the third quarter of 2022. The UK's main trade partners Despite the UK leaving the EU in 2020 following the Brexit referendum of 2016, Europe remains the main destination for UK exports, with almost half of UK exports heading there in 2023. During the same year, just over 60 percent of imports came from European countries, compared with around 17.9 percent from countries in Asia, and 11.8 percent from the Americas. In terms of individual countries, the United States was the UK's leading export partner for both goods and services from the UK, while Germany was the main source of UK goods imports, and the U.S. for service imports. It is as yet unclear how the return of Donald Trump to the White House will impact UK/US trade relations, should the President follow through with threats made on the campaign trail to increase trade tariffs. Brexit rethink under Starmer? Although generally more pro-European than the previous government, the new Labour government, led by Keir Starmer, does not plan to rejoin the European Union, or the Single Market. Public opinion, while gradually turning against Brexit recently, has not coalesced around a particular trading relationship. In late 2023, a survey indicated that while 31 percent of British adults wanted to rejoin the EU, a further 30 percent wanted to simply improve relations with the EU, instead of rejoining. Just 11 percent of respondents wanted to join the single market but not the EU, while 10 percent were happy with the relationship as it was. At the start of 2025, after several months in office, the new government has not signalled any major change in direction regarding on this, but has broadly signalled it wants a better relationship with the EU.

The UK inflation rate was three percent in January 2025, up from 2.5 percent in the previous month, and the fastest rate of inflation since March 2024. Between September 2022 and March 2023, the UK experienced seven months of double-digit inflation, which peaked at 11.1 percent in October 2022. Due to this long period of high inflation, UK consumer prices have increased by over 20 percent in the last three years. As of the most recent month, prices were rising fastest in the communications sector, at 6.1 percent, but were falling in both the furniture and transport sectors, at -0.3 percent and -0.6 percent respectively.
The Cost of Living Crisis High inflation is one of the main factors behind the ongoing Cost of Living Crisis in the UK, which, despite subsiding somewhat in 2024, is still impacting households going into 2025. In December 2024, for example, 56 percent of UK households reported their cost of living was increasing compared with the previous month, up from 45 percent in July, but far lower than at the height of the crisis in 2022. After global energy prices spiraled that year, the UK's energy price cap increased substantially. The cap, which limits what suppliers can charge consumers, reached 3,549 British pounds per year in October 2022, compared with 1,277 pounds a year earlier. Along with soaring food costs, high-energy bills have hit UK households hard, especially lower income ones that spend more of their earnings on housing costs. As a result of these factors, UK households experienced their biggest fall in living standards in decades in 2022/23. Global inflation crisis causes rapid surge in prices The UK's high inflation, and cost of living crisis in 2022 had its origins in the COVID-19 pandemic. Following the initial waves of the virus, global supply chains struggled to meet the renewed demand for goods and services. Food and energy prices, which were already high, increased further in 2022. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 brought an end to the era of cheap gas flowing to European markets from Russia. The war also disrupted global food markets, as both Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of cereal crops. As a result of these factors, inflation surged across Europe and in other parts of the world, but typically declined in 2023, and approached more usual levels by 2024.

Residential properties in Great Britain sold the fastest in Scotland in January 2024. It took on average 45 days between listing and selling a property in Scotland, whereas in Wales, this period was the longest at 80 days. Demand for housing in the UK declined as a result of the higher mortgage rates, leading to properties taking longer to sell than before.

Berlin was the European city with the most office stock volume in 2022, followed by Paris, and Munich. Office floor space in the German capital amounted to approximately 19.7 million square meters. Paris and Munich, on the other hand, had roughly 18.7 and 14.5 million square meters, respectively. London's office market is also not to be underestimated, with London City and West End alone totaling 12.3 million square meters.

Which is the most expensive office real estate market in Europe? With over 1,300 euros per square meter per year, Central London yielded the highest rent among European cities. Both Brexit and the coronavirus affected demand for office space in London, causing rents to stall in many of London's districts.

Where are the lowest vacancy rates in Europe? One of the main signs that the office market is performing well is that vacancy rates remain low. Low vacancy rates encourage developers to build more offices, leading to the growth of the sector. The vacancy rates of prime offices - the best-in-class offices on the most desired locations - were the lowest Berlin, Luxembourg, and Hamburg in 2022.

In 2023, demand for UK-built cars grew by 16.8 percent year-on-year to some 905,100 units. The United Kingdom exports nearly eight out of 10 cars assembled in UK plants. Vulnerability to trade disruptions Sales and exports of UK-manufactured vehicles began to fall in 2016. Slumping investments amid Brexit fears, as well as higher costs of production, are likely to have contributed to a slowdown in demand. Since the UK’s referendum on membership of the European Union, the British pound has fallen in value. This may have been expected to be good news for exporters, who garner more interest with relatively cheaper products. However, the weak pound is unfavorable for vehicle manufacturers due to their international supply chains. The European Union is the UK auto industry's leading trade partner, accounting for most of its car imports. EU markets also account for around six in 10 UK car exports. Inflation impacts new and used car sales The price inflation recorded in the United Kingdom impacted all product types, passenger cars included. New car purchases were the most affected by the soaring prices: Their consumer price index was at its highest in the past fifteen years in 2023. In contrast, the consumer price index for used car purchases decreased in 2023, down from its record-breaking 2022 value.

In 2022/23 the median annual household disposable income in the United Kingdom amounted to approximately 31,817 British pounds. Between 1994/95 and 2007/08 the average household disposable income showed year-on-year increases, but after this point, income levels began to stagnate and even decline in some years. Although average household disposable resumed a steady growth pattern between 2012/13 and 2016/17, it has fluctuated in more recent years, and declined in the most recent two years. Economic shocks and disposable income The steady growth of disposable income from 1994 to 2008 reflected the generally healthy UK economy in that period. After the global financial crisis, however, the UK economy was plunged into a deep recession that is mirrored by a decline in disposable income. Although there was a period of recovery between 2013 and 2016, the UK economy has suffered a series of economic shocks since that point. The Brexit Referendum of 2016, and the subsequent economic and political fallout, was followed by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and in more recent years by the Inflation Crisis and Ukraine War. Living costs putting UK households under pressure Between January and April 2022, the share of people reporting an increase in their living costs compared with the previous month rose from 66 percent to 91 percent. This corresponded with significant price increases at that time, with CPI inflation surging from 0.4 percent in February 2021 to a 41-year-high of 11.1 percent by October 2022. Although inflation did gradually start to decline in the following months, it wasn't until July 2023 that wages caught up with inflation. The surge in energy and food prices that caused this high inflation, was devastating for UK households, leading to the worst Cost of Living Crisis for decades.

The consumer price index for furniture and furnishings in the United Kingdom in the fourth quarter of 2024 was 126.5, indicating that since 2015 prices in this sector have increased by 26.5 percent, compared with 35.2 percent for overall prices.

The median annual earnings in the United Kingdom was 37,430 British pounds per year in 2024. Annual earnings varied significantly by region, ranging from 47,455 pounds in London to 32,960 pounds in the North East. Along with London, two other areas of the UK had median annual earnings above the UK average; South East England, and Scotland, at 39,038 pounds and 38,315 pounds respectively. Regional Inequality in the UK Various other indicators highlight the degree of regional inequality in the UK, especially between London and the rest of the country. Productivity in London, as measured by output per hour, was 33.2 percent higher than the UK average. By comparison, every other UK region, except the South East, fell below the UK average for productivity. In gross domestic product per head, London was also an outlier. The average GDP per head in the UK was 31,947 pounds in 2021, but for London it was 56,431 pounds. Again, the South East's GDP per head was slightly above the UK average, with every other region below it. Within London itself, there is also a great degree of inequality. In 2021, for example, the average earnings in the historic City of London borough were 1,138 pounds per week, compared with 588 pounds in Redbridge, a borough in the North East of London. Wages finally catch up with inflation in 2023 After the initial economic disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic subsided, wages began to steadily grow in the UK. This reached a peak in June 2021, when weekly wages for regular pay were growing at 7.3 percent, or 5.2 percent when adjusted for inflation. By that November, however, prices began to rise faster than wage growth, with inflation surging throughout 2022. In October 2022, for example, while regular pay was growing by 6.1 percent, the inflation rate had surged to 11.1 percent, Although inflation peaked in that month, it wasn't until June 2023 that wages started to outpace inflation. By this point, the damage caused by high energy and food inflation has precipitated the worst Cost of Living Crisis in the UK for a generation.