The Canada Energy Regulator’s (CER) Energy Futures series explores how possible energy pathways might unfold for Canadians over the long term. The report employs economic and energy models to make projections based on a certain set of assumptions given what we know today about technology, energy and climate policies, human behaviour, and the structure of the economy.

bull The National Energy Board rsquo s Energy Futures series explores how possible energy futures mightunfold for Canadians over the long term This analysis is not a prediction of what will takeplace, nor does it aim to show how certain goals like Canada rsquo s climate targets will be achieved Rather, Energy Futures employs economic and energy models to make projections based on acertain set of assumptions given what we know today about technology, energy and climatepolicies, human behaviour and the structure of the economy bull This report, Canada rsquo s Energy Future 2017 Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2040 EF2017 ,is the latest edition of this series bull EF2017 considers three cases o The Reference Case is based on a current economic outlook, a moderate view of energyprices, and climate and energy policies announced at the time of analysis o The Higher Carbon Price HCP Case considers the impact on the Canadian energysystem of higher carbon pricing than in the Reference Case o The Technology Case considers the impact on the Canadian energy system of greateradoption of select emerging energy production and consumption technologies bull In developing this report the NEB engaged various energy experts and stakeholders to gatherinput and feedback on the assumptions and preliminary projections The NEB would like tothank all participants for their contributions to EF2017 bull Over the projection period, it is likely that developments beyond the realm of normalexpectations, such as geopolitical events or technological breakthroughs, will occur Likewise, nbsp new information will become available and trends, policies, and technologies willevolve In particular, EF 2017 makes several simplifying assumptions on future carbon pricingin Canada The actual implementation of the pan Canadian approach to carbon pricing couldlead to different impacts on Canada rsquo s energy system than shown here This report should notbe taken as an official or definitive impact analysis of this initiative Readers of this analysisshould consider the projections a baseline for discussing Canada rsquo s energy future today, not aprediction of what will take place in the future

The Coastal Infrastructure Vulnerability Index (CIVI) was jointly developed by DFO Science Branch, Small Craft Harbours (SCH) Program and the Economic Analysis and Statistics Directorate. The CIVI was designed with the intent of developing a climate change adaptation tool that would support management decisions regarding the long-term infrastructure planning for SCH sites. The CIVI provides a numerical indication of the relative vulnerability of small craft harbour sites to the effects of climate change and was designed with three component sub-indices: Environmental Exposure (natural forces), Infrastructure, and Socio-economic. The spatial component for the coastline was derived from the CanVec 1:50,000 hydrographic layer (https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/9d96e8c9-22fe-4ad2-b5e8-94a6991b744b). This layer combines the 1:50,000 CanVec coastline of Canada with the following CIVI environmental exposure variables: - projected sea level rise (for the decades 2030, 2040,...2100) in meters - wave height (metres) and wind speed (metres/second) - change in sea ice coverage in Atlantic Canada from the 1970s to the 2000s Sea level change: Data for relative sea level change (SLC) were derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC 2014, AR5). The projected relative sea level change under the high emission scenario (RCP8.5) was calculated for all years between 2006 and 2100. Sea level change for the years 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060, 2070, 2080, 2090, and 2100 were used. Wind Speed and Wave Height Modelled hindcasts of yearly maximum wind speed (1990 - 2012) and wave height (1990- 2014) were used. This dataset was generated from IFREMER wave hindcasts using the WAVEWATCH III model with wind data from NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) (Saha et al. 2010). Two high resolution (10 minute) grids of Atlantic and Pacific maximum modeled wind speeds and maximum significant wave height were used for southern Canadian coastal areas while a coarser (30 minute) worldwide grid was used for the Arctic areas. From these datasets the mean annual maximum wind speed over 23 years and the mean maximum significant wave height over 25 years were calculated. Change in sea ice coverage: Sea ice data from the Canadian Ice Service were acquired for Atlantic and Arctic Canada, representing percent ice coverage for each week over four decades (1970s, 1980s, 1990, 2000s). For each decade a single dataset was calculated to represent the sum of all weeks with ice coverage in excess of 50%, with a maximum possible score of 52 weeks for each decade. To measure change in ice duration, the summary mapsheet from the 2000s was subtracted from the 1970s summary mapsheet. The final dataset represents the change between the 1970s and 2000s in the number of weeks with ice concentrations greater than 50%. A positive number indicates a reduction in weeks of ice coverage, a negative number an increase in ice coverage. The data for individual small craft harbours included here contains predicted sea level change for the decades between 2030 and 2100, wave height, windspeed, change in sea ice coverage, population, and the final environmental exposure sub-index value (ESI). The population for each harbour is derived from the 2016 Census of Canada data for the Census subdivision (CSD) geographic unit. Reference: Relative sea-level projections for Canada based on the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and the NAD83v70VG national crustal velocity model https://geoscan.nrcan.gc.ca/starweb/geoscan/servlet.starweb?path=geoscan/fulle.web&search1=R=327878 IPCC, 2014. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1132 pp. Cite this data as: Greenan B. and Greyson P. Coastal Environmental Exposure Layer. Published March 2022. Ocean Ecosystem Science Division, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Dartmouth, N.S.

Link to the ScienceBase Item Summary page for the item described by this metadata record. Service Protocol: Link to the ScienceBase Item Summary page for the item described by this metadata record. Application Profile: Web Browser. Link Function: information

Fire weather refers to weather conditions that are conducive to fire. These conditions determine the fire season, which is the period(s) of the year during which fires are likely to start, spread and do sufficient damage to warrant organized fire suppression.

The length of fire season is the difference between the start- and end-of-fire-season dates. These are defined by the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI; http://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/) start-up and end dates. Start-up occurs when the station has been snow-free for 3 consecutive days, with noon temperatures of at least 12°C. For stations that do not report significant snow cover during the winter (i.e., less than 10 cm or snow-free for 75% of the days in January and February), start-up occurs when the mean daily temperature has been 6°C or higher for 3 consecutive days. The fire season ends with the onset of winter, generally following 7 consecutive days of snow cover. If there are no snow data, shutdown occurs following 7 consecutive days with noon temperatures lower than or equal to 5°C.

Historical climate conditions were derived from the 1981–2010 Canadian Climate Normals. Future projections were computed using two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). RCPs are different greenhouse gas concentration trajectories adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for its fifth Assessment Report. RCP 2.6 (referred to as rapid emissions reductions) assumes that greenhouse gas concentrations peak between 2010-2020, with emissions declining thereafter. In the RCP 8.5 scenario (referred to as continued emissions increases) greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise throughout the 21st century.

Provided layer: difference in projected fire season length for the short-term (2011-2040) under the RCP 8.5 (continued emissions increases) compared to reference period across Canada.

The Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators (CESI) program provides data and information to track Canada's performance on key environmental sustainability issues. The indicator provides an overview of Canada's projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions up to 2040. The indicator allows the public and policy-makers to see Canada's modelled GHG emissions projections relative to the 2030 and 2035 targets and beyond with projections up to 2040. Information is provided to Canadians in a number of formats including: static and interactive maps, charts and graphs, HTML and CSV data tables and downloadable reports. See the supplementary documentation for the data sources and details on how the data were collected and how the indicator was calculated. Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators: https://www.canada.ca/environmental-indicators

The Accessible Canada Act (ACA) requires federal organizations, such as the Office of the Secretary to the Governor General (OSGG), to prepare and publish accessibility plans, set up feedback processes and report openly on progress. The OSGG is pleased to be joining the efforts to reach the overarching goal of the ACA, which is to realize a barrier-free Canada by 2040.

The fire regime describes the patterns of fire seasonality, frequency, size, spatial continuity, intensity, type (e.g., crown or surface fire) and severity in a particular area or ecosystem.

The number of large fires refers to the annual number of fires greater than 200 hectares (ha) that occur per units of 100,000 ha. It was calculated per Homogeneous Fire Regime (HFR) zones. These HFR zones represent areas where the fire regime is similar over a broad spatial scale (Boulanger et al. 2014). Such zonation is useful in identifying areas with unusual fire regimes that would have been overlooked if fires had been aggregated according to administrative and/or ecological classifications.

Fire data comes from the Canadian National Fire Database covering 1959–1999 (for HFR zones building) and 1959-1995 (for model building). Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) modeling was used to relate monthly fire regime attributes with monthly climatic/fire-weather in each HFR zone. Future climatic data were simulated using the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 (CanESM2) and downscaled at a 10 Km resolution using ANUSPLIN for two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). RCPs are different greenhouse gas concentration trajectories adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for its fifth Assessment Report. RCP 2.6 (referred to as rapid emissions reductions) assumes that greenhouse gas concentrations peak between 2010-2020, with emissions declining thereafter. In the RCP 8.5 scenario (referred to as continued emissions increases) greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise throughout the 21st century.

Provided layer: projected number of large fires (>200 ha) across Canada for the short-term (2011-2040) under the RCP 8.5 (continued emissions increases).

Reference: Boulanger, Y., Gauthier, S., et al. 2014. A refinement of models projecting future Canadian fire regimes using homogeneous fire regime zones. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 44, 365–376.

Link to the ScienceBase Item Summary page for the item described by this metadata record. Service Protocol: Link to the ScienceBase Item Summary page for the item described by this metadata record. Application Profile: Web Browser. Link Function: information

The fire regime describes the patterns of fire seasonality, frequency, size, spatial continuity, intensity, type (e.g., crown or surface fire) and severity in a particular area or ecosystem. Annual area burned is the average surface area burned annually in Canada by large fires (greater than 200 hectares (ha)). Changes in annual area burned were estimated using Homogeneous Fire Regime (HFR) zones. These zones represent areas where the fire regime is similar over a broad spatial scale (Boulanger et al. 2014). Such zonation is useful in identifying areas with unusual fire regimes that would have been overlooked if fires had been aggregated according to administrative and/or ecological classifications. Fire data comes from the Canadian National Fire Database covering 1959–1999 (for HFR zones building) and 1959-1995 (for model building). Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) modeling was used to relate monthly fire regime attributes with monthly climatic/fire-weather in each HFR zone. Future climatic data were simulated using the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 (CanESM2) and downscaled at a 10 Km resolution using ANUSPLIN for two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). RCPs are different greenhouse gas concentration trajectories adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for its fifth Assessment Report. RCP 2.6 (referred to as rapid emissions reductions) assumes that greenhouse gas concentrations peak between 2010-2020, with emissions declining thereafter. In the RCP 8.5 scenario (referred to as continued emissions increases) greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise throughout the 21st century. Provided layer: projected annual area burned by large fires (>200 ha) across Canada for the short-term (2011-2040) under the RCP 8.5 (continued emissions increases). Reference: Boulanger, Y., Gauthier, S., et al. 2014. A refinement of models projecting future Canadian fire regimes using homogeneous fire regime zones. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 44, 365–376.

The fire regime describes the patterns of fire seasonality, frequency, size, spatial continuity, intensity, type (e.g., crown or surface fire) and severity in a particular area or ecosystem.

Annual area burned is the average surface area burned annually in Canada by large fires (greater than 200 hectares (ha)). Changes in annual area burned were estimated using Homogeneous Fire Regime (HFR) zones. These zones represent areas where the fire regime is similar over a broad spatial scale (Boulanger et al. 2014). Such zonation is useful in identifying areas with unusual fire regimes that would have been overlooked if fires had been aggregated according to administrative and/or ecological classifications.

Fire data comes from the Canadian National Fire Database covering 1959–1999 (for HFR zones building) and 1959-1995 (for model building). Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) modeling was used to relate monthly fire regime attributes with monthly climatic/fire-weather in each HFR zone. Future climatic data were simulated using the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 (CanESM2) and downscaled at a 10 Km resolution using ANUSPLIN for two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). RCPs are different greenhouse gas concentration trajectories adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for its fifth Assessment Report. RCP 2.6 (referred to as rapid emissions reductions) assumes that greenhouse gas concentrations peak between 2010-2020, with emissions declining thereafter. In the RCP 8.5 scenario (referred to as continued emissions increases) greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise throughout the 21st century.

Provided layer: projected annual area burned by large fires (>200 ha) across Canada for the short-term (2011-2040) under the RCP 8.5 (continued emissions increases).

Reference: Boulanger, Y., Gauthier, S., et al. 2014. A refinement of models projecting future Canadian fire regimes using homogeneous fire regime zones. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 44, 365–376.

On 11 July 2019, the Accessible Canada Act (Bill C-81) came into force. The Act seeks to make Canada barrier-free by 1 January 2040. The Act also requires federally regulated entities to develop an Accessibility Action Plan to identify, remove, and prevent accessibility barriers under federal jurisdiction in the following priority areas: employment the built environment (buildings and public spaces) information and communication technologies communication, other than information and communication technologies the procurement of goods, services and facilities the design and delivery of programs and services transportation VAC’s Accessibility Action Plan 2022-2025 (the Plan) identifies several actions to take to prevent and remove accessibility barriers in these priority areas. The Plan also identifies actions that will support the Department in advancing its accessibility culture shift. VAC is proud to have released its first ever Accessibility Progress Report 2023, which highlights achievements since the Plan was implemented in 2022. This Accessibility Progress Report 2024 does not cover the entire calendar year, given the time that was required to have the Report approved and published. VAC’s Accessibility Progress Report 2024 will touch on areas such as internal and external consultations, and organizational culture shift. Any progress made in 2024 that is not addressed in this Report will be carried over and covered in the Accessibility Action Plan 2025-2028. As the Department moves forward on its journey to become barrier-free, we will embrace the opportunity to report back annually on progress, and to strengthen our performance measurement capacity. Through updated accessibility action plans and progress reports, the Department will hold itself accountable.

Link to the ScienceBase Item Summary page for the item described by this metadata record. Service Protocol: Link to the ScienceBase Item Summary page for the item described by this metadata record. Application Profile: Web Browser. Link Function: information

The fire regime describes the patterns of fire seasonality, frequency, size, spatial continuity, intensity, type (e.g., crown or surface fire) and severity in a particular area or ecosystem. Annual area burned is the average surface area burned annually in Canada by large fires (greater than 200 hectares (ha)). Changes in annual area burned were estimated using Homogeneous Fire Regime (HFR) zones. These zones represent areas where the fire regime is similar over a broad spatial scale (Boulanger et al. 2014). Such zonation is useful in identifying areas with unusual fire regimes that would have been overlooked if fires had been aggregated according to administrative and/or ecological classifications. Fire data comes from the Canadian National Fire Database covering 1959–1999 (for HFR zones building) and 1959-1995 (for model building). Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) modeling was used to relate monthly fire regime attributes with monthly climatic/fire-weather in each HFR zone. Future climatic data were simulated using the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 (CanESM2) and downscaled at a 10 Km resolution using ANUSPLIN for two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). RCPs are different greenhouse gas concentration trajectories adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for its fifth Assessment Report. RCP 2.6 (referred to as rapid emissions reductions) assumes that greenhouse gas concentrations peak between 2010-2020, with emissions declining thereafter. In the RCP 8.5 scenario (referred to as continued emissions increases) greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise throughout the 21st century. Provided layer: projected annual area burned by large fires (>200 ha) across Canada for the short-term (2011-2040) under the RCP 8.5 (continued emissions increases). Reference: Boulanger, Y., Gauthier, S., et al. 2014. A refinement of models projecting future Canadian fire regimes using homogeneous fire regime zones. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 44, 365–376.

The Accessible Canada Act (ACA) requires federal organizations, such as the Office of the Secretary to the Governor General (OSGG), to prepare and publish accessibility plans, set up feedback processes and report openly on progress. The OSGG is pleased to be joining the efforts to reach the overarching goal of the ACA, which is to realize a barrier-free Canada by 2040.

The fire regime describes the patterns of fire seasonality, frequency, size, spatial continuity, intensity, type (e.g., crown or surface fire) and severity in a particular area or ecosystem. The number of large fires refers to the annual number of fires greater than 200 hectares (ha) that occur per units of 100,000 ha. It was calculated per Homogeneous Fire Regime (HFR) zones. These HFR zones represent areas where the fire regime is similar over a broad spatial scale (Boulanger et al. 2014). Such zonation is useful in identifying areas with unusual fire regimes that would have been overlooked if fires had been aggregated according to administrative and/or ecological classifications. Fire data comes from the Canadian National Fire Database covering 1959–1999 (for HFR zones building) and 1959-1995 (for model building). Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) modeling was used to relate monthly fire regime attributes with monthly climatic/fire-weather in each HFR zone. Future climatic data were simulated using the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 (CanESM2) and downscaled at a 10 Km resolution using ANUSPLIN for two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). RCPs are different greenhouse gas concentration trajectories adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for its fifth Assessment Report. RCP 2.6 (referred to as rapid emissions reductions) assumes that greenhouse gas concentrations peak between 2010-2020, with emissions declining thereafter. In the RCP 8.5 scenario (referred to as continued emissions increases) greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise throughout the 21st century. Provided layer: projected number of large fires (>200 ha) across Canada for the short-term (2011-2040) under the RCP 8.5 (continued emissions increases). Reference: Boulanger, Y., Gauthier, S., et al. 2014. A refinement of models projecting future Canadian fire regimes using homogeneous fire regime zones. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 44, 365–376.

The Accessible Canada Act (2019) requires that Federal Departments publish Accessibility Plans. However, the mission behind this Plan goes far beyond meeting a requirement. The Act and this Plan push us toward a better future for our country – one where everyone can take part fully in society. The work we do in support of the Act and this Plan benefits everyone through the realization of a Canada without barriers, a goal the Act commits to achieving by 2040. While everyone benefits from this work, the benefit to persons with disabilities is the true mission. In support of the Government of Canada’s goal of a barrier-free Canada by 2040, the purpose of Justice Canada’s Accessibility Plan is to create a cohesive, unifying force within the accessibility community at Justice that allows us to create meaningful change together. A dedicated network exists to support the Accessibility Plan and ensure we achieve these goals, with two Co-Champions, six Pillar Leads, an Executive lead for accessibility and an Accessibility Coordinator, the Advisory Committee on Persons with Disabilities, and the Accessibility Plan Task Force. To ensure the Plan itself reflects high standards for accessibility and inclusion, the development process involves intensive review for Plain and Inclusive language. Further, intersectional Gender-based Analysis Plus (GBA Plus) and the perspectives of diverse equity-seeking groups inform the content. Changing our Department’s culture to one of accessibility by default is the ultimate goal of this Plan. To do this, we align the Accessibility Commitments for Justice Canada under six Pillars: * Employment * Built Environment * Information and Communications Technology (ICT) * Communications, other than ICT (Communications) * Procurement * Design and Delivery of Programs and Services (DDPS) Each Pillar includes an outcome statement that defines the long-term mission, a list of key barriers and solutions, and a list of actions that target the barriers and lead to the outcome. A seventh Pillar, Transportation, exists in the Accessible Canada Act but falls outside the scope of Justice Canada’s mandate. The voices of people with lived experience, including diverse subgroups with intersecting identity factors, such as women with disabilities, Indigenous persons with disabilities, 2SLGBTQI+ persons with disabilities and others, are essential to our success at all points. We selected the Outcomes and Actions that define the path we lay out in this Plan with a great deal of care for and attention to the voices of those with lived experience. These Outcomes and Actions lay out specific changes that send us on a journey to a state where employees and clients of Justice Canada with disabilities should see the Department as an employer and service provider of choice. The Accessible Canada Act includes a robust accountability framework. After publishing its first Accessibility Plan, Justice Canada must update and publish a new Plan every three years. It must also establish a feedback form to allow employees and clients to inform the content of the Plan and comment on its implementation. The Department must also prepare annual progress reports to document the main concerns expressed in feedback and explain how the department responds.

Fire weather refers to weather conditions that are conducive to fire. These conditions determine the fire season, which is the period(s) of the year during which fires are likely to start, spread and do sufficient damage to warrant organized fire suppression. The length of fire season is the difference between the start- and end-of-fire-season dates. These are defined by the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI; http://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/) start-up and end dates. Start-up occurs when the station has been snow-free for 3 consecutive days, with noon temperatures of at least 12°C. For stations that do not report significant snow cover during the winter (i.e., less than 10 cm or snow-free for 75% of the days in January and February), start-up occurs when the mean daily temperature has been 6°C or higher for 3 consecutive days. The fire season ends with the onset of winter, generally following 7 consecutive days of snow cover. If there are no snow data, shutdown occurs following 7 consecutive days with noon temperatures lower than or equal to 5°C. Historical climate conditions were derived from the 1981–2010 Canadian Climate Normals. Future projections were computed using two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). RCPs are different greenhouse gas concentration trajectories adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for its fifth Assessment Report. RCP 2.6 (referred to as rapid emissions reductions) assumes that greenhouse gas concentrations peak between 2010-2020, with emissions declining thereafter. In the RCP 8.5 scenario (referred to as continued emissions increases) greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise throughout the 21st century. Provided layer: difference in projected fire season length for the short-term (2011-2040) under the RCP 8.5 (continued emissions increases) compared to reference period across Canada.