This study will analyse the potential economic impact of a lack of the Trade Continuity Agreement between Canada and the United Kingdom when the United Kingdom would no longer be a legal party to Canada-EU treaties, including CETA as of January 1, 2021. In the absence of a transitional agreement or a trade agreement between Canada and the United Kingdom, bilateral trade between the two countries would be governed by WTO rules alone, and the goods trade between Canada and the United Kingdom would be subject to WTO most-favoured nation (MFN) duties. Neither Canada nor the United Kingdom would continue to benefit from the preferential market access currently provided for under CETA. In May 2020, the United Kingdom announced the applied MFN tariff schedule referred to as the UK Global Tariff (UKGT), which would take effect after the post-Brexit transition period. The United Kingdom’s bound tariff rates—the highest tariffs that the United Kingdom could apply—have not yet been certified at the WTO. The proposed bound tariffs are almost identical to the EU’s Common External Tariffs (CET). The analysis that follows explores the economic implications of the two scenarios where Canada-U.K. trade reverts to MFN conditions: the U.K. applied tariffs (UKGT) and the U.K. bound tariffs (EU CET). The benefits from increased certainty for the services sectors under CETA would also be removed.

This study will analyse the potential economic impact of a lack of the Trade Continuity Agreement between Canada and the United Kingdom when the United Kingdom would no longer be a legal party to Canada-EU treaties, including CETA as of January 1, 2021. In the absence of a transitional agreement or a trade agreement between Canada and the United Kingdom, bilateral trade between the two countries would be governed by WTO rules alone, and the goods trade between Canada and the United Kingdom would be subject to WTO most-favoured nation (MFN) duties. Neither Canada nor the United Kingdom would continue to benefit from the preferential market access currently provided for under CETA. In May 2020, the United Kingdom announced the applied MFN tariff schedule referred to as the UK Global Tariff (UKGT), which would take effect after the post-Brexit transition period. The United Kingdom’s bound tariff rates—the highest tariffs that the United Kingdom could apply—have not yet been certified at the WTO. The proposed bound tariffs are almost identical to the EU’s Common External Tariffs (CET). The analysis that follows explores the economic implications of the two scenarios where Canada-U.K. trade reverts to MFN conditions: the U.K. applied tariffs (UKGT) and the U.K. bound tariffs (EU CET). The benefits from increased certainty for the services sectors under CETA would also be removed.

The Canadian customs clearance market, valued at approximately $2.5 billion in 2025, is experiencing robust growth, projected to expand at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) exceeding 7% from 2025 to 2033. This significant expansion is fueled by several key factors. The increasing volume of cross-border trade between Canada and its major trading partners, particularly the United States, is a primary driver. E-commerce's continued surge is also a significant contributor, leading to a higher demand for efficient and reliable customs clearance services. Furthermore, the Canadian government's ongoing efforts to streamline customs processes and enhance technological infrastructure are fostering a more conducive environment for market growth. The market's segmentation by mode of transport – sea, air, and cross-border land transport – reflects the diverse nature of import and export activities within Canada. Major players like DHL, FedEx, UPS, and Kuehne + Nagel dominate the market, leveraging their established global networks and technological capabilities. However, the market also presents opportunities for smaller, specialized firms catering to niche sectors or specific regional needs. The projected growth trajectory of the Canadian customs clearance market is anticipated to continue its upward trend throughout the forecast period. While potential restraints such as fluctuating exchange rates and evolving trade policies could impact market dynamics, the underlying growth drivers – increasing trade volumes, e-commerce expansion, and government initiatives – are expected to outweigh these challenges. The robust growth signifies significant opportunities for market participants, particularly those capable of offering innovative solutions, advanced technologies, and specialized expertise to navigate the complexities of Canadian customs regulations. Further market consolidation through mergers and acquisitions is also a likely scenario, leading to an increasingly competitive landscape dominated by a smaller number of large players and specialized niche firms. Recent developments include: March 2023: Air Menzies International (AMI), a Canadian airfreight reseller, has built a new branch near Toronto Pearson International Airport. The new branch is AMI's second in Canada, and it will provide a wide range of wholesale airfreight services, including door-to-door services on global import and export shipments; exports with consolidation and 'Back2Back'; 'Quick2Ship,' AMI's express shipment platform; X-ray screening and warehousing services; and customs clearance and documentation support., March 2022: The Department of Finance Canada announced that they issued the Most-Favoured-Nation Tariff Withdrawal Order (2022-1) to remove Russia and Belarus from entitlement to the Most-Favoured-Nation (MFN) tariff, under the Customs Tariff of Canada. This was in response to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, supported by Belarus, and in addition to the new sanctions Canada has imposed under the Special Economic Measures Act. Effective March 2, 2022, the General Tariff will be used to account for goods imported into Canada that originate from Russia and Belarus, with the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA). Under the General Tariff, a customs duty rate of 35% is applicable on almost all goods. Russia, Belarus, and North Korea are the only countries whose imports are currently subject to the General Tariff.. Notable trends are: Increasing International Trade Driving the Market.

The Canadian customs clearance market, valued at approximately $X million in 2025 (estimated based on provided CAGR and market size data), is experiencing robust growth, projected to maintain a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) exceeding 7% from 2025 to 2033. This expansion is fueled by several key factors. The surge in e-commerce, particularly cross-border transactions, is driving significant demand for efficient customs brokerage services. Furthermore, increasingly complex trade regulations and a greater focus on supply chain security are compelling businesses to outsource customs clearance to specialized firms. The market's segmentation reflects diverse transportation modes, with sea, air, and cross-border land transport all contributing to the overall market volume. Major players like DB Schenker, UPS, Kuehne + Nagel, FedEx, and DHL Group Logistics dominate the landscape, competing on service offerings, technological capabilities, and network reach. However, smaller, specialized firms focusing on niche sectors or regional expertise also play a vital role. The Canadian market's growth trajectory is expected to remain positive throughout the forecast period, despite potential restraints such as fluctuating exchange rates, potential trade policy changes, and occasional border processing delays. However, these challenges are likely to be offset by continued investment in automation and technology within the customs clearance sector, leading to improved efficiency and reduced processing times. This technological advancement, coupled with the sustained growth in e-commerce and cross-border trade, indicates a bright outlook for the Canadian customs clearance market. The focus on streamlining logistics and enhancing security will further solidify the need for professional customs brokerage services, assuring continued market expansion. This comprehensive report provides an in-depth analysis of the Canada customs clearance market, encompassing the period from 2019 to 2033. With a base year of 2025 and an estimated year of 2025, this report offers valuable insights into market size, trends, and future projections, crucial for businesses operating within or intending to enter this dynamic sector. The report leverages extensive research and data analysis to paint a clear picture of this multi-million dollar industry. Recent developments include: March 2023: Air Menzies International (AMI), a Canadian airfreight reseller, has built a new branch near Toronto Pearson International Airport. The new branch is AMI's second in Canada, and it will provide a wide range of wholesale airfreight services, including door-to-door services on global import and export shipments; exports with consolidation and 'Back2Back'; 'Quick2Ship,' AMI's express shipment platform; X-ray screening and warehousing services; and customs clearance and documentation support., March 2022: The Department of Finance Canada announced that they issued the Most-Favoured-Nation Tariff Withdrawal Order (2022-1) to remove Russia and Belarus from entitlement to the Most-Favoured-Nation (MFN) tariff, under the Customs Tariff of Canada. This was in response to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, supported by Belarus, and in addition to the new sanctions Canada has imposed under the Special Economic Measures Act. Effective March 2, 2022, the General Tariff will be used to account for goods imported into Canada that originate from Russia and Belarus, with the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA). Under the General Tariff, a customs duty rate of 35% is applicable on almost all goods. Russia, Belarus, and North Korea are the only countries whose imports are currently subject to the General Tariff.. Key drivers for this market are: Increasing international trade, Complex custom regulations. Potential restraints include: Regulatory Challenges, Geopolitical Uncertainity. Notable trends are: Increasing International Trade Driving the Market.

International trade is an increasingly important component of the European economy. Since its early foundations were laid by the European Coal & Steel Community (ECSC) founded in 1951, trade between European member states has been at the core of the European project. International trade, that is, trade which the European Union does externally with countries who are not member states, has become a greater focus of the bloc in recent years, as the EU attempts to increase the global reach of its companies, while reaping the benefits of cheaper imports. The EU has put particular importance on reaching trade agreements with partners outside the union, as this removes trade barriers such as tariffs, quotas, as well as non-tariff barriers (such as regulations, licenses, and sanctions) which hamper trade activity. EU Trade Deals Recent trade agreements include the Comprehensive Economic & Trade Agreement with Canada (while not ratified by the member states' parliaments, it had been effectively in force since 2017) and the Japan-EU Economic partnership agreement, in force since 2019. The most significant regions which the EU has not concluded free trade agreements with are the United States, Russia, and China. The Transatlantic Trade & Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the U.S. and EU broke down at the negotiation stage, with powerful economic & political actors on the European side, such as trade unions, opposing the deal from the beginning, while the election of Donald Trump as President of the U.S. effectively ended any hopes of the deal being completed due to his "America First" trade policies. With the increasing geopolitical and economic competition between the U.S. and China, the EU now finds itself caught between the two superpowers, and is unlikely to be able to conclude a trade agreement with either without antagonizing the other country. EU trade with Russia, on the other hand, has broken down in light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the subsequent sanctions imposed by the European member states.