Goldman Sachs predicts a $10 billion annual impact on foreign producers due to U.S. oil tariffs, affecting Canadian and Latin American markets while benefiting U.S. refiners.

Discover the implications of potential U.S. tariffs on Canadian oil imports and how the Trans Mountain Pipeline is poised to become a critical asset in optimizing Canada's oil export routes, especially toward Asian markets.

The U.S. imported some 3.62 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum from Canada in 2023, up from nearly 3.52 million barrels per day in the prior year. Despite some fluctuation, figures have nearly doubled during the period in consideration, peaking in 2023.

Despite possible tariffs, Enbridge's CEO states that the Canada-U.S. oil trade will remain resilient due to deep integration of energy systems.

Canada's oil and gas field service operators have experienced volatile market conditions throughout 2025. World commodity prices performed well throughout the reporting period. However, the period did start slowly in 2020 amid the pandemic as oil and gas prices started very low. As economic conditions improved from the pandemic's peak, the need for oil and gas returned to pre-pandemic levels and even reached new highs. As a result, revenue has been increasing at a CAGR of 9.8% over the past five years, reaching an estimated $ 49.5 billion in 2025. This includes a 3.6% dip in 2025 alone, when profit is set to reach 11.4%. The dip in 2025 can be mainly attributed to the uncertain geopolitical tensions from the energy tariffs imposed by the US, causing oil prices to drop drastically. While energy trade between the US and Canada hasn't been impacted, the impact on global prices has bled into Canadian prices. The swelling popularity of highly efficient enhanced oil recovery techniques has created a mixed impact for oil and gas field service providers. While these advanced methods generate higher-margin service opportunities, their increased efficiency means that fewer rigs and, thus, fewer field services are needed overall. After an initial surge in demand as extraction companies implemented new technologies, the ongoing need for field services has gradually pushed down. Revenue is set to push up at a CAGR of 0.9% over the next five years, reaching an estimated $51.7 billion in 2030. With the world oil and gas prices forecast to drop, this will likely adversely impact oil and gas field service companies with shrinking demand. Even so, Canadian oil prices are still set remain steady since they won't be as impacted by tariffs as the rest of the global economy. Nonetheless, there is a lack of sufficient pipeline infrastructure to bring commodities to markets. If this infrastructure can be expanded, it will likely benefit commodity prices and industry revenue.

Canadian heavy crude records its smallest discount to US oil in nearly four years due to tariff-induced sales surges and supply constraints.

Oil drilling and gas extraction in Canada have grown tremendously, resulting from rising prices and additional investment in production. Oil and gas companies suffered significantly in 2020 amid the pandemic as prices drastically fell amid lockdowns. As the economy reopened, the need for oil and gas became apparent and prices skyrocketed, bolstering revenue. The Russia-Ukraine conflict further exacerbated this, causing exports to surge as foreign countries looked elsewhere to get oil and gas. While prices crept down later in the period, they remained elevated and well above pre-pandemic levels. Overall, revenue is expected to climb at a CAGR of 6.4% to $151.1 billion through the end of 2025, including a 7.6% dip in 2025 alone, as prices are projected to dip amid global energy tariffs imposed by the US. While these tariffs do not directly impact Canada, they will have trickle-down effects on global prices. Profit has also fluctuated alongside price shake-ups. Despite operating volatility, Canada remains one of the largest energy producers in the world. Expanded use of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling techniques has enabled companies to tap into previously uneconomical deposits, notably in Alberta's oil sands. New entrants used the oil sands as an opportunity and flocked to the region. The size of Canada's proven reserves trails only Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. Canada also remains one of the largest export sources of oil and gas products for the United States. Through 2030, oil and gas companies are set to face a modest slowdown. Both global natural gas and crude oil prices are set to push down, constraining revenue. Nonetheless, Canadian oil prices are set to creep up, allowing domestic companies to stay afloat. The rapid popularity of renewable energy will carry over as government incentives and public opinion have led many end markets to rely less on fossil fuels because of their harmful environmental effects. Oil drilling and natural gas extraction revenue is expected to creep upward at a CAGR of 1.3% to $160.1 billion through the end of 2030.

Canadian Natural Gas and Oil Pipeline Tolls. A toll is the price charged by a pipeline company for transportation and other services.

The 2025 annual OPEC oil price stood at ***** U.S. dollars per barrel, as of May. This would be lower than the 2024 average, which amounted to ***** U.S. dollars. The abbreviation OPEC stands for Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and includes Algeria, Angola, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and the United Arab Emirates. The aim of the OPEC is to coordinate the oil policies of its member states. It was founded in 1960 in Baghdad, Iraq. The OPEC Reference Basket The OPEC crude oil price is defined by the price of the so-called OPEC (Reference) basket. This basket is an average of prices of the various petroleum blends that are produced by the OPEC members. Some of these oil blends are, for example: Saharan Blend from Algeria, Basra Light from Iraq, Arab Light from Saudi Arabia, BCF 17 from Venezuela, et cetera. By increasing and decreasing its oil production, OPEC tries to keep the price between a given maxima and minima. Benchmark crude oil The OPEC basket is one of the most important benchmarks for crude oil prices worldwide. Other significant benchmarks are UK Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), and Dubai Crude (Fateh). Because there are many types and grades of oil, such benchmarks are indispensable for referencing them on the global oil market. The 2025 fall in prices was the result of weakened demand outlooks exacerbated by extensive U.S. trade tariffs.