EU Carbon Permits fell to 82.64 EUR on December 1, 2025, down 0.74% from the previous day. Over the past month, EU Carbon Permits's price has risen 1.77%, and is up 20.06% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for EU Carbon Permits.

As of April 2025, the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) carbon price was above ** U.S. dollars per metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (USD/tCO₂e). The EU ETS launched in 2005 as a cost-effective way of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and was the world's first major international carbon market. The UK was formerly part of the EU ETS, but replaced this with its own system after withdrawing from the EU. As of April 2025, the price of carbon on the UK ETS was almost ** USD/tCO₂e.

Prices for EU Carbon Permits including live quotes, historical charts and news. EU Carbon Permits was last updated by Trading Economics this December 2 of 2025.

The cost of UK ETS carbon permits (UKAs) was around *** GBP in February 2023, but prices have fallen considerably since then. Prices on January 16, 2025 were just ***** GBP, down ** percent from the same date the previous year. Formerly part of the EU ETS, the UK launched its own cap-and-trade system in 2021 following Brexit. Why has the UK’s carbon price fallen? Several factors have contributed to falling UK carbon prices, including mild winter weather and reduced power demand, as well as a surplus of carbon allowances on the market. While prices have recovered marginally from the record lows, they remain markedly below carbon prices on the EU ETS. The low cost of UK carbon permits has raised concerns that it could deter investment in renewable energy. Future of UK ETS The UK ETS covers emissions from domestic aviation and the industry and power sectors, amounting to some ** percent of the country’s annual GHG emissions. There are plans to expand the system over the coming years to cover CO₂ venting by the upstream oil and gas sector, domestic maritime emissions, and energy from waste and waste incineration. The UK is also looking to introduce a carbon border adjustment mechanism, which would place a carbon price on certain emissions-intensive industrial goods imported to the UK.

The price of emissions allowances (EUA) traded on the European Union's Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) exceed 100 euros per metric ton of CO₂ for the first time in February 2023. Although average annual EUA prices have increased significantly since the 2018 reform of the EU-ETS, they fell ** percent year-on-year in 2024 to ** euros. What is the EU-ETS? The EU-ETS became the world’s first carbon market in 2005. The scheme was introduced as a way of limiting GHG emissions from polluting installations by putting a price on carbon, thus incentivizing entities to reduce their emissions. A fixed number of emissions allowances are put on the market each year, which can be traded between companies. The number of available allowances is reduced each year. The EU-ETS is now in its fourth phase (2021 to 2030). Carbon price comparisons The EU ETS has one of the highest average annual carbon prices worldwide, averaging ** U.S. dollars as of April 2025. In comparison, prices for UK ETS carbon credits averaged 57 U.S. dollars during same period, while those under the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) in the United States averaged just ** U.S. dollars.

The Carbon Offsets Market size was valued at USD 938.75 USD Billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 2222.23 USD Billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 13.1 % during the forecast period. Recent developments include: August 2023 – The Doha-based Global Carbon Council announced plans to list its carbon credits on the MENA exchanges platform. This initiative is expected to increase the number of carbon offset investors and boost the number of active carbon emission projects in the Middle East region.. Key drivers for this market are: Strict Government Regulations to Neutralize Carbon Emissions by 2050 Have Boosted the Market. Potential restraints include: Limited Awareness of the Carbon Offsetting and Low Carbon Credit Scores in Multiple Countries May Hamper Market Growth . Notable trends are: Increasing Adoption of Carbon Offsets by Voluntary Projects is the Emerging Trend in the Market.

Snapshot img

Carbon Credit Market Size 2025-2029

The carbon credit market size is forecast to increase by USD 1,966.3 billion at a CAGR of 32.1% between 2024 and 2029.

The market is experiencing significant growth due to rising emissions in the Earth's atmosphere, which necessitates the need for businesses and individuals to offset their carbon footprint. Booming investment and partnership deals in this market are driving its expansion, with various organizations recognizing the importance of reducing their carbon emissions and contributing to environmental sustainability. However, the fluctuating prices of carbon credits pose a challenge for market participants, as they can impact the profitability of carbon offsetting projects.
To stay competitive, market players must closely monitor carbon credit prices and adapt their strategies accordingly. In summary, the market is witnessing increasing demand due to growing environmental concerns and regulatory requirements, but its growth is influenced by the volatility of carbon credit prices.

What will the Carbon Credit Market Size during the forecast period?

Request Free Sample

The market has gained significant traction in recent years as businesses and individuals seek to offset their carbon emissions and contribute to the global decarbonization effort. This market facilitates the buying and selling of carbon credits, which represent the right to emit a specific amount of greenhouse gases. The voluntary carbon market plays a crucial role in this context, enabling organizations to offset their carbon footprint beyond regulatory requirements. Net-zero greenhouse-gas emissions have become a key business objective, driving demand for carbon credits from various sources. Forestry projects are a significant contributor to the market. These projects involve the protection, restoration, or reforestation of forests, which act as carbon sinks, absorbing and storing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Carbon emission reduction projects, such as renewable energy and energy efficiency initiatives, also contribute to the market. Carbon storage projects, including those focused on geological storage, are another essential component. The market's dynamics are influenced by various factors, including regulatory policies, market prices, and technological advancements. As the world moves towards a low-carbon economy, the demand for carbon credits is expected to continue growing, making it an attractive investment opportunity for businesses and individuals alike.

How is this market segmented and which is the largest segment?

The market research report provides comprehensive data (region-wise segment analysis), with forecasts and estimates in 'USD billion' for the period 2025-2029, as well as historical data from 2019-2023 for the following segments.

End-user

  Power
  Energy
  Transportation
  Industrial
  Others


Type

  Compliance
  Voluntary


Geography

  Europe

    Germany
    UK
    France
    Italy


  Asia

    China


  North America



  Rest of World (ROW)

By End-user Insights

The power segment is estimated to witness significant growth during the forecast period.

Carbon credits represent financial instruments that enable organizations to invest in emission reduction projects, contributing to the global effort to transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. These initiatives, which focus on conservation, biodiversity, and livelihoods, provide a means to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the effects of climate change.

Additionally, the energy sector, specifically power generation, can benefit significantly from this shift, as renewable energy sources offer a sustainable and non-depleting alternative to coal and natural gas. To achieve the international goal of limiting global temperature rise to 2°C or 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is crucial. Carbon credits facilitate this transition by incentivizing investment in renewable energy projects and reducing the overall carbon footprint.

Get a glance at the market report of share of various segments Request Free Sample

The power segment was valued at USD 61.30 billion in 2019 and showed a gradual increase during the forecast period.

Regional Analysis

Europe is estimated to contribute 84% to the growth of the global market during the forecast period.

Technavio's analysts have elaborately explained the regional trends and drivers that shape the market during the forecast period.

For more insights on the market share of various regions Request Free Sample

The European Union (EU) held a significant share of The market in 2023, with countries like the UK and Germany being major buyers. To achieve climate neutrality by 2050, the EU established the International Emissions Trading System (ETS) in 2005, which sets the cost of CO2 emissions and uses

The average price of voluntary carbon market (VCM) credits decreased by *** percent in 2024 year-on-year, to **** U.S. dollars per metric ton of carbon dioxide equivalent. The market value of the VCM totaled just over *** million U.S. dollars that year.

Snapshot img

Carbon Credit Trading Platform Market Size 2024-2028

The carbon credit trading platform market size is forecast to increase by USD 313.8 billion at a CAGR of 27.77% between 2023 and 2028. The carbon credit trading market is experiencing significant growth due to increasing international sustainability initiatives and stricter environmental rules. As enterprises strive to reduce their carbon footprints and comply with emission regulations, the demand for emission reduction projects and carbon credits is on the rise. Market stability is a key trend, as more businesses recognize the long-term benefits of carbon credit trading. However, a lack of awareness and understanding of the process hinders widespread adoption. Greenhouse gas emissions continue to be a major concern for governments and organizations alike, making the carbon credit trading platform an essential tool for achieving emission reduction targets.

Request Free Sample

The global focus on climate change and the adoption of renewable energy sources have led enterprises to prioritize emission reduction targets and environmental responsibility. Carbon credits have emerged as a financial tool to facilitate these efforts, enabling businesses to offset their carbon footprints by investing in emission reduction projects. Carbon capture technologies are gaining traction as essential components of the global transition towards a low-carbon economy. The increasing awareness of the environmental impact of greenhouse gas emissions has driven enterprises to seek sustainable practices and adhere to international sustainability initiatives.

Moreover, net zero goals have become a corporate mindset, with many organizations committing to reducing their carbon emissions in line with environmental regulations. Carbon credits provide a means for businesses to achieve these targets by investing in projects that reduce or remove greenhouse gas emissions from the atmosphere. The market is witnessing significant growth as more enterprises recognize the importance of carbon footprint reduction in their business strategies. Carbon credits offer a flexible and cost-effective solution for organizations to meet their emission reduction targets while supporting sustainable projects. The economic transition towards a low-carbon economy necessitates the adoption of carbon credits as a financial instrument.

Further, renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar power, are increasingly becoming the preferred choice for power generation, reducing the demand for fossil fuels and, consequently, carbon emissions. Carbon credits serve as a crucial financial mechanism in the context of environmental regulations. As governments worldwide implement stricter emission norms, businesses are turning to carbon credits to offset their carbon footprints and ensure compliance with these rules. Sustainability is a key concern for businesses, and carbon credits offer a tangible way to demonstrate environmental responsibility. By investing in emission reduction projects, organizations can reduce their carbon footprints and contribute to global efforts to mitigate climate change.

In conclusion, the market is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by the increasing demand for carbon credits from enterprises. The market's expansion is further fueled by the growing awareness of the importance of cybersecurity in the context of carbon credit trading platforms. In conclusion, the market plays a vital role in facilitating the transition towards a low-carbon economy by enabling enterprises to offset their carbon footprints and invest in emission reduction projects. As the global focus on climate change and sustainability intensifies, the demand for carbon credits and carbon credit trading platforms is expected to continue growing.

Market Segmentation

The market research report provides comprehensive data (region-wise segment analysis), with forecasts and estimates in 'USD million' for the period 2024-2028, as well as historical data from 2018-2022 for the following segments.

Type

  Voluntary carbon market
  Regulated carbon market


Service Type

  Cap and trade
  Baseline and credit


Geography

  Europe

    Germany
    UK
    Italy


  APAC

    China


  North America

    US


  South America



  Middle East and Africa

By Type Insights

The voluntary carbon market segment is estimated to witness significant growth during the forecast period. In The market, the voluntary segment held the largest share in 2022. This segment's popularity is on the rise as businesses increasingly commit to net zero goals and renewable energy adoption in response to climate change concerns. Voluntary carbon credits enable companies to offset their carbon emissions by investing in projects that reduce or remove greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These initiatives not only contribute to the fight against climate

The global carbon credits market is experiencing a period of unprecedented expansion, driven by intensifying regulatory pressure and a surge in corporate climate commitments. With a projected valuation of over $6.4 trillion by 2033, the market is shifting from a niche mechanism to a central pillar of global decarbonization strategy. Europe, powered by its established Emissions Trading System, currently dominates the landscape, but the fastest growth is occurring in the Asia-Pacific region as nations like China and India develop their own carbon pricing frameworks. This transition is marked by a growing demand for high-quality, verifiable credits, particularly from nature-based solutions and innovative carbon removal technologies. The increasing sophistication of the market, including the use of blockchain for transparency, underscores its critical role in financing the transition to a low-carbon economy, although challenges related to standardization and quality assurance remain.

Key strategic insights from our comprehensive analysis reveal:

Europe's unparalleled dominance, spearheaded by the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), accounts for approximately 88.7% of the global market value in 2025, making it the central hub for compliance-driven carbon trading and price discovery.
The Asia-Pacific region is emerging as the market's primary growth engine, exhibiting the highest regional CAGR of 46.269%. This rapid expansion is fueled by the implementation of national carbon markets, particularly in China, and a vast potential for renewable energy and forestry-based offset projects.
A significant market-wide flight to quality is underway, with increasing investor and corporate preference for high-integrity carbon credits that offer verifiable, permanent emission reductions and additional co-benefits, such as biodiversity and community development.

Global Market Overview & Dynamics of Carbon Credits Market Analysis The global carbon credits market is on a trajectory of exponential growth, poised to expand from $119.872 Billion in 2021 to an estimated $6460.75 Billion by 2033, reflecting an impressive CAGR of 39.411%. This dynamic growth is a direct consequence of the global imperative to address climate change, translating into robust regulatory frameworks and voluntary corporate action. The market is bifurcated into compliance markets, driven by government mandates like Emissions Trading Systems (ETS), and voluntary markets, where organizations purchase credits to meet their own sustainability goals. While Europe's mature compliance market currently represents the lion's share, rapid development in Asia and North America signals a future with more geographically diverse and interconnected carbon pricing mechanisms. Global Carbon Credits Market Drivers

Strengthening Climate Policies and Regulations: The proliferation of national and regional Emissions Trading Systems (ETS) and carbon taxes, inspired by international frameworks like the Paris Agreement, legally mandates industries to reduce emissions, creating consistent demand for carbon credits.
Surge in Corporate Net-Zero Commitments: A growing wave of corporations are voluntarily setting ambitious decarbonization targets, driving significant demand in the voluntary carbon market (VCM) as they seek high-quality offsets to neutralize unavoidable emissions.
Investor and Stakeholder Pressure: Increasing pressure from investors, consumers, and civil society is compelling companies to demonstrate credible climate action, making investment in carbon credits a key component of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) strategies.

Global Carbon Credits Market Trends

Integration of Technology for Transparency: The adoption of blockchain and other digital technologies is enhancing the monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) of carbon projects, improving transparency and helping to prevent issues like double-counting.
Growing Demand for Carbon Removal Credits: There is a distinct shift in preference from emission reduction/avoidance credits towards carbon removal credits (e.g., direct air capture, biochar, reforestation), which are seen as essential for achieving net-zero goals.
Focus on Co-Benefits and Project Quality: Buyers are increasingly prioritizing carbon credits from projects that deliver additional social and environmental co-benefits, such as biodiversity protection, improved local livelihoods, and clean water access, oft...

Voluntary carbon offset prices could reach as high as *** U.S. dollars per ton of carbon dioxide (USD/tCO₂) by 2050 if integrity issues within the market are resolved. However, if the market continues to operate without rigorous standards, and integrity issues remain a concern for companies, then carbon offset credits would trade at just ** USD/tCO₂ in 2050. Meanwhile, prices would soar to *** USD/tCO₂ by 2030 if the market is restricted to only carbon removals.

This study aims to investigate the price changes in the carbon trading market and the development of international carbon credits in-depth. To achieve this goal, operational principles of the international carbon credit financing mechanism are considered, and time series models were employed to forecast carbon trading prices. Specifically, an ARIMA(1,1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model, which combines the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, is established. Additionally, a multivariate dynamic regression Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Inputs (ARIMAX) model is utilized. In tandem with the modeling, a data index system is developed, encompassing various factors that influence carbon market trading prices. The random forest algorithm is then applied for feature selection, effectively identifying features with high scores and eliminating low-score features. The research findings reveal that the ARIMAX Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) model exhibits high forecasting accuracy for time series data. The model’s Mean Squared Error, Root Mean Squared Error, and Mean Absolute Error are reported as 0.022, 0.1344, and 0.1543, respectively, approaching zero and surpassing other evaluation models in predictive accuracy. The goodness of fit for the national carbon market price forecasting model is calculated as 0.9567, indicating that the selected features strongly explain the trading prices of the carbon emission rights market. This study introduces innovation by conducting a comprehensive analysis of multi-dimensional data and leveraging the random forest model to explore non-linear relationships among data. This approach offers a novel solution for investigating the complex relationship between the carbon market and the carbon credit financing mechanism.

Carbon Credit Management for Fleets Market Outlook

As per our latest research, the global Carbon Credit Management for Fleets market size reached USD 1.69 billion in 2024, with a robust compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.2% projected throughout the forecast period. This dynamic market is expected to achieve a valuation of USD 8.23 billion by 2033, driven by intensifying regulatory mandates, the rising cost of carbon emissions, and the growing adoption of sustainability initiatives across the transportation and logistics sector. The market’s expansion is primarily propelled by the need for advanced digital solutions that enable fleet operators to accurately track, manage, and offset their carbon emissions in an increasingly carbon-conscious global economy.

One of the most significant growth factors for the Carbon Credit Management for Fleets market is the increasing stringency of environmental regulations and the global shift towards decarbonization. Governments across North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific are implementing comprehensive emission reduction targets, carbon pricing mechanisms, and mandatory reporting frameworks. These regulatory pressures are compelling fleet operators—ranging from logistics companies to public transportation providers—to adopt sophisticated carbon management solutions that ensure compliance and minimize financial exposure to carbon liabilities. The integration of real-time emission tracking, automated compliance management, and seamless carbon offset procurement is becoming a strategic imperative for organizations aiming to maintain a competitive edge while aligning with evolving regulatory landscapes.

Another key driver is the escalating demand for corporate sustainability and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) reporting. Investors, customers, and stakeholders are increasingly prioritizing companies that demonstrate tangible progress in reducing their carbon footprint. Fleet operators are responding by investing in digital platforms and services capable of delivering granular, auditable emissions data and transparent reporting. These solutions not only facilitate internal sustainability initiatives but also support external communication, brand reputation, and access to green financing. The convergence of carbon credit management technology with telematics, IoT, and data analytics is enabling fleets to optimize route planning, fuel consumption, and vehicle utilization, thereby reducing emissions and enhancing operational efficiency.

The proliferation of voluntary and compliance carbon markets is also catalyzing the growth of the Carbon Credit Management for Fleets market. As the price of carbon credits continues to rise, fleet operators are increasingly seeking cost-effective strategies to procure, trade, and retire credits in line with their decarbonization goals. Advanced software and managed services are facilitating access to high-quality carbon offset projects, automating credit transactions, and ensuring traceability throughout the carbon value chain. This trend is particularly pronounced among multinational logistics firms and corporate fleets with complex, cross-border operations that require scalable, interoperable solutions capable of navigating diverse regulatory environments and offset standards.

From a regional perspective, North America currently leads the global market, accounting for approximately 37% of total revenue in 2024, followed closely by Europe and Asia Pacific. The United States and Canada are at the forefront of adoption, driven by federal and state-level climate policies, as well as a mature ecosystem of technology providers. In Europe, the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and national carbon pricing initiatives are spurring demand for advanced fleet emission management tools. Meanwhile, Asia Pacific is emerging as the fastest-growing region, with a CAGR of 21.5% through 2033, fueled by rapid urbanization, expanding logistics networks, and increasing government investment in sustainable transportation infrastructure.

The carbon credit trading platform market is projected to be worth US$ 159.3 million in 2024. The market is anticipated to reach US$ 815.0 million by 2034. The market is further expected to surge at a CAGR of 17.7% during the forecast period 2024 to 2034.

Country-wise Insights

Category-wise Insights

Report Scope

According to Cognitive Market Research, the global Voluntary Carbon Credit Trading market size was USD XX million in 2024. It will expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.70% from 2024 to 2031.

North America held the major market share for more than 40% of the global revenue with a market size of USD XX million in 2024 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.9% from 2024 to 2031.
Europe accounted for a market share of over 30% of the global revenue with a market size of USD XX million in 2024 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.2% from 2024 to 2031.
Asia Pacific held a market share of around 23% of the global revenue with a market size of USD XX million in 2024 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.7% from 2024 to 2031.
Latin America had a market share of more than 5% of the global revenue with a market size of USD XX million in 2024 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.1% from 2024 to 2031.
Middle East and Africa had a market share of around 2% of the global revenue and was estimated at a market size of USD XX million in 2024 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.4% from 2024 to 2031.
Renewable Energy held the highest Voluntary Carbon Credit Trading market revenue share in 2024.

Market Dynamics of Voluntary Carbon Credit Trading Market

Key Drivers for Voluntary Carbon Credit Trading Market

Rising Corporate Sustainability Goals to Drive the Market Growth

The Voluntary Carbon Credit Trading Market is expanding due in large part to companies' increasing commitment to sustainability. As companies set more aggressive goals to cut their carbon footprints, they are using carbon credits to offset emissions that are not completely avoidable. Growing demand from investors, consumers, and regulatory agencies to exhibit environmental responsibility is driving this trend. In order to improve their brand image, satisfy stakeholder expectations, and adhere to changing regulatory norms, businesses are incorporating carbon offsetting into their corporate plans. The pursuit of sustainability objectives increases demand for carbon credits and encourages investment in high-caliber, significant carbon reduction initiatives, which in turn drives innovation and market expansion.

Consumer and Investor Pressure is Expanding to Propel Market Growth

The Voluntary Carbon Credit Trading Market is growing at a fast rate due to pressure from investors and consumers. Customers are favoring companies that show a commitment to sustainability as environmental awareness grows. Additionally, companies with strong environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices, including reducing carbon footprints, are giving priority to investors. Companies are under dual pressure to use carbon credit trading as a way to offset their emissions and demonstrate their environmental stewardship. In order to fulfill these demands, companies are making investments in premium carbon credits, improving their transparency, and incorporating carbon offset plans into their daily operations. In addition to promoting market growth, this increased demand for reliable carbon credits also fosters the creation of creative and successful carbon reduction initiatives.

Restraint Factor for the Voluntary Carbon Credit Trading Market

Lack of Transparency and Standardization to Hinder Market Growth

The Voluntary Carbon Credit Trading Market's expansion is severely constrained by a lack of standards and transparency. The lack of consistent guidelines causes discrepancies in the reliability and quality of carbon credits, which makes it difficult for purchasers to determine their actual impact. The market is unstable and lacking in confidence when it comes to monitoring and confirming emissions reductions without standardized procedures. This lack of openness raises the possibility of problems like duplicate counting and might lead to doubts about the usefulness of carbon credits. In order to overcome these obstacles, efforts must be made to create transparent guidelines and increase market integrity. Only then can participant confidence soar and carbon credit trading become more widely accepted.

Impact of Covid-19 on the Voluntary Carbon Credit Trading Market

The Voluntary Carbon Credit Trading Market was affected by the COVID-19 epidemic in a complicated way. Lockdowns initially caused a drop in worldwi...

This study aims to investigate the price changes in the carbon trading market and the development of international carbon credits in-depth. To achieve this goal, operational principles of the international carbon credit financing mechanism are considered, and time series models were employed to forecast carbon trading prices. Specifically, an ARIMA(1,1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model, which combines the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, is established. Additionally, a multivariate dynamic regression Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Inputs (ARIMAX) model is utilized. In tandem with the modeling, a data index system is developed, encompassing various factors that influence carbon market trading prices. The random forest algorithm is then applied for feature selection, effectively identifying features with high scores and eliminating low-score features. The research findings reveal that the ARIMAX Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) model exhibits high forecasting accuracy for time series data. The model’s Mean Squared Error, Root Mean Squared Error, and Mean Absolute Error are reported as 0.022, 0.1344, and 0.1543, respectively, approaching zero and surpassing other evaluation models in predictive accuracy. The goodness of fit for the national carbon market price forecasting model is calculated as 0.9567, indicating that the selected features strongly explain the trading prices of the carbon emission rights market. This study introduces innovation by conducting a comprehensive analysis of multi-dimensional data and leveraging the random forest model to explore non-linear relationships among data. This approach offers a novel solution for investigating the complex relationship between the carbon market and the carbon credit financing mechanism.