EU Carbon Permits fell to 78.75 EUR on October 6, 2025, down 0.52% from the previous day. Over the past month, EU Carbon Permits's price has risen 2.05%, and is up 27.51% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for EU Carbon Permits.

Carbon prices across multiple emissions trading systems worldwide are expected to increase during the period of 2026 to 2030, compared to 2022 to 2026. The average EU ETS carbon price is expected to be **** euros per metric ton of CO₂ during the period 2022 to 2025, but is projected to rise to almost 100 euros per metric ton of CO₂ during the period of 2026 to 2030, according to a survey of International Emissions Trading Association members. EU ETS carbon pricing broke the ** euros per metric ton of CO₂ barrier in February 2022, and in February 2023 it surpassed 100 euros per metric ton of CO₂.

The cost of UK ETS carbon permits (UKAs) was around *** GBP in February 2023, but prices have fallen considerably since then. Prices on January 16, 2025 were just ***** GBP, down ** percent from the same date the previous year. Formerly part of the EU ETS, the UK launched its own cap-and-trade system in 2021 following Brexit. Why has the UK’s carbon price fallen? Several factors have contributed to falling UK carbon prices, including mild winter weather and reduced power demand, as well as a surplus of carbon allowances on the market. While prices have recovered marginally from the record lows, they remain markedly below carbon prices on the EU ETS. The low cost of UK carbon permits has raised concerns that it could deter investment in renewable energy. Future of UK ETS The UK ETS covers emissions from domestic aviation and the industry and power sectors, amounting to some ** percent of the country’s annual GHG emissions. There are plans to expand the system over the coming years to cover CO₂ venting by the upstream oil and gas sector, domestic maritime emissions, and energy from waste and waste incineration. The UK is also looking to introduce a carbon border adjustment mechanism, which would place a carbon price on certain emissions-intensive industrial goods imported to the UK.

Descriptive statistics of the (daily) closing prices of the China’s national carbon market and crude oil futures market.

This dataset and accompanying Python code support the empirical study titled "From Biofuel Illusions to Systemic Risk Pricing: Reimagining Carbon Markets for Real Climate Mitigation." The project investigates whether investor sensitivity to carbon price risk changes under different market conditions—particularly during transitions between low- and high-volatility regimes. The goal is to uncover nonlinear dynamics in climate-related financial risk using regime-switching models.

The study leverages monthly equity returns for major European energy and industrial firms, simulated market index data (CAC 40), and historical carbon futures price data (ICE EUA). A Markov Regime-Switching (MRS) model is applied to estimate separate beta coefficients across volatility regimes.

This repository includes:

• ✅ Cleaned and aligned data for each firm and market series (CSV)

• ✅ Carbon Emissions Futures dataset processed to monthly returns

• ✅ Simulated CAC 40 market returns (CSV)

• ✅ carbon.py: Python script to reproduce the analysis in Google Colab or locally

Hydrogen Futures Price Index Market Outlook

According to our latest research, the global Hydrogen Futures Price Index market size reached USD 1.9 billion in 2024, reflecting robust demand and increasing investments across the hydrogen value chain. The market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 23.4% from 2025 to 2033, with the total market size forecasted to reach USD 13.1 billion by 2033. This remarkable growth is fueled by the accelerating transition to clean energy, rising adoption of hydrogen in various industrial applications, and the establishment of transparent pricing mechanisms for hydrogen trading worldwide.

A primary growth factor driving the Hydrogen Futures Price Index market is the global shift toward decarbonization and the increasing adoption of hydrogen as a clean energy carrier. Governments and industries are investing heavily in hydrogen infrastructure, aiming to reduce carbon emissions and achieve sustainability targets. The introduction of hydrogen futures contracts and indices provides market participants with price transparency and risk management tools, fostering confidence among investors. As more countries commit to net-zero targets and hydrogen becomes integral to their energy strategies, the demand for a standardized pricing benchmark is surging, further accelerating market expansion.

Another significant driver is the diversification of hydrogen production methods, particularly the rapid scaling of green and blue hydrogen. The proliferation of renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar, has enabled cost-effective production of green hydrogen through electrolysis. Simultaneously, advancements in carbon capture technologies are making blue hydrogen more viable. These developments are leading to a more dynamic and liquid hydrogen market, necessitating sophisticated futures price indices to facilitate trading, hedging, and investment decisions. The evolving regulatory landscape, coupled with increasing participation from financial institutions and commodity exchanges, is also enhancing market maturity and depth.

Technological innovation and digitalization are playing a pivotal role in shaping the Hydrogen Futures Price Index market. The integration of advanced data analytics, blockchain, and AI-driven forecasting models is improving price discovery, transaction efficiency, and market transparency. These technologies are enabling real-time monitoring of hydrogen supply-demand dynamics, production costs, and carbon intensity, which are critical for accurate pricing. Furthermore, the emergence of digital trading platforms and smart contracts is streamlining the trading process, attracting a broader range of market participants, including utilities, industrial end-users, and institutional investors. This technological evolution is expected to sustain high growth rates and foster the development of new hydrogen-related financial products.

Regionally, Europe is leading the Hydrogen Futures Price Index market, accounting for the largest share in 2024, followed closely by Asia Pacific and North America. The European Union's ambitious hydrogen strategy, substantial investments in infrastructure, and the launch of hydrogen trading hubs are propelling market development. Meanwhile, Asia Pacific is experiencing rapid growth due to strong government support in countries like Japan, South Korea, and China, as well as increasing collaboration with global energy players. North America is also emerging as a key market, driven by technological advancements, favorable policies, and the presence of major energy companies. As regional markets mature, cross-border trading and harmonization of price indices are expected to gain momentum, fostering a globally integrated hydrogen market.

Product Type Analysis

The Hydrogen Futures Price Index market is segmented by product type into Green Hydrogen, Blue Hydrogen, Grey Hydrogen, and Others. Green hydrogen, produced via electrolysis using renewable energy, is gaining the most traction due to its zero-carbo

TraditionData’s Environmental Markets Data & Pricing service focuses on renewable energy and carbon markets, including the US Renewable and EU Biofuel benchmarks.

• Offers futures prices for US Renewable and Carbon markets and EU Biofuel benchmarks.
• End-of-day broker prices are based on daily market activity assessments.
• Historical data and detailed curve coverage are available upon request.

For more insights, visit Environmental Markets Data & Pricing.

European Union Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS) carbon allowances are estimated to average ** euros per metric ton of carbon dioxide (tCO₂e) in 2024. This figure is forecast to more than double by the end of the decade to roughly *** euros/tCO₂e, before reaching nearly *** euros/tCO₂e by 2035. EU-ETS carbon prices surpassed the 100 euros per metric ton threshold for the first time in February 2023.

The global trading of carbon credits market, currently valued at $1803 million (2025), is experiencing robust growth, projected to expand at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 21% from 2025 to 2033. This surge is primarily driven by increasing governmental regulations aimed at mitigating climate change, coupled with growing corporate social responsibility initiatives and a rising awareness among consumers regarding their environmental footprint. The personal application segment is witnessing significant traction, driven by individual efforts to offset their carbon emissions through voluntary carbon market participation. Simultaneously, the enterprise segment is expanding rapidly, fueled by companies seeking to meet their sustainability targets and comply with evolving emission reduction mandates. Within the types of carbon credits traded, forestry and renewable energy projects dominate the market, reflecting the significant role of nature-based solutions and clean energy transition in carbon emission reduction strategies. However, the market faces restraints, including the complexity of carbon credit verification and standardization, as well as concerns about the effectiveness and potential for double counting of emission reductions. The diverse regional landscape showcases North America and Europe as leading markets, benefiting from established regulatory frameworks and robust investor interest. Emerging economies in Asia-Pacific are also exhibiting substantial growth potential, presenting both opportunities and challenges relating to infrastructure development and policy implementation. The future growth trajectory will largely depend on the strengthening of international carbon markets, technological advancements in carbon accounting and monitoring, and the continued evolution of regulatory landscapes worldwide. The market is segmented across various applications (personal and enterprise) and types of projects (forestry, renewable energy, landfill methane, and others). The significant players in this dynamic market include South Pole Group, Aera Group, Terrapass, and several other established companies globally. The market's growth is closely tied to the expanding awareness of climate change and the increasing pressure on businesses and individuals to reduce their carbon footprint. Future market expansion will likely be influenced by technological advancements in carbon accounting, the development of more robust and transparent verification systems, and a global harmonization of carbon credit standards. Government policies and regulations play a crucial role in shaping market dynamics, influencing investment flows and driving adoption rates across various sectors.

The development of China’s National Carbon Market has strengthened the inherent link between the carbon market and the broader energy market, providing a potential for cross-market risk transmission resonance. Studying the risk spillover effects between China’s National Carbon Market and the crude oil futures market is of significant practical importance, both in terms of carbon market development and carbon risk management. Based on the Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform (MODWT), the price series are decomposed across multiple scales, and the risk spillover effects between the carbon market and the crude oil futures market are examined from both the time domain and the frequency domain. Methods such as wavelet energy decomposition, wavelet correlation, lead-lag analysis, and wavelet coherence are used to explore the mean spillover effects and volatility spillover effects (collectively referred to as risk spillover effects) across various scales. The study finds that China’s National Carbon Market exhibits a clear compliance-driven effect, with relatively low market liquidity. The crude oil futures market experiences frequent price fluctuations, primarily driven by long-term factors. In the time domain, the risk transmission resonance between the carbon market and the crude oil futures market is high, with significant positive correlations observed at the D1 to D4 scales, and noticeable mean spillover effects. In the frequency domain, at the D3 to D4 scales, the carbon market and the crude oil futures market exhibit similar volatility frequencies, indicating strong volatility spillover effects. Based on these findings, it is recommended that the trading volume of the carbon market be gradually increased to improve market liquidity. Furthermore, the risk monitoring and early warning mechanisms of China’s National Carbon Market should be improved. For carbon-emitting companies, enhancing awareness of carbon asset management and making informed investment and hedging decisions based on the correlation between the two markets is crucial.

Coal fell to 104.75 USD/T on October 6, 2025, down 0.24% from the previous day. Over the past month, Coal's price has fallen 0.99%, and is down 31.54% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Coal - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on October of 2025.

‘Mean % change’ is the change, through 2100, in the number of FIA plots considered suitable potential habitat (based on associations shown in S1 Table), across all 1000 simulations in each main scenario relative to the baseline, across a species’ range, In the Climate Change Only section, results presented in columns for ‘High tail’ and ‘Low tail’ of DF (Douglas-fir) change represent our prediction interval around the mean (see Methods). In the Carbon Pricing + Climate Change section, ‘High CP’ represents the mean % change from the high carbon price version of that scenario, with ‘(+high DF)’ the additional prediction interval from the high tail of DF change. ‘Low CP’ represents the mean % change from the low carbon price version of that scenario, with ‘(+low DF)’ the additional prediction interval from the low tail of DF change (see Methods for additional description).

Lithium traded flat at 73,550 CNY/T on September 30, 2025. Over the past month, Lithium's price has fallen 7.67%, and is down 3.86% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Lithium - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on October of 2025.

Voluntary carbon offset prices could reach as high as *** U.S. dollars per ton of carbon dioxide (USD/tCO₂) by 2050 if integrity issues within the market are resolved. However, if the market continues to operate without rigorous standards, and integrity issues remain a concern for companies, then carbon offset credits would trade at just ** USD/tCO₂ in 2050. Meanwhile, prices would soar to *** USD/tCO₂ by 2030 if the market is restricted to only carbon removals.

Conserving forests to provide ecosystem services and biodiversity will be a key environmental challenge as society strives to adapt to climate change. The ecosystem services and biodiversity that forests provide will be influenced by the behaviors of numerous individual private landowners as they alter their use of forests in response to climate change and any future carbon pricing policies that emerge. We evaluated the impact of forest landowners’ likely adaptation behaviors on potential habitat for 35 terrestrial, forest-dependent vertebrates across three U.S. Pacific states. In particular, we couple a previously estimated empirical-economic model of forest management with spatially explicit species’ range and habitat associations to quantify the effects of adaptation to climate change and carbon pricing on potential habitat for our focal species (amphibians, birds and mammals) drawn from state agency lists of species of conservation concern. We show that both climate change and carbon pricing policies would likely encourage adaptation away from currently prevalent coniferous forest types, such as Douglas-fir, largely through harvest and planting decisions. This would reduce potential habitat for a majority of the focal species we studied across all three vertebrate taxa. The total anticipated habitat loss for amphibians, birds and mammals considered species of state concern would exceed total habitat gained, and the net loss in habitat per decade would accelerate over time. Carbon payments to forest landowners likely would lead to unintended localized habitat losses especially in Douglas-fir dominant forest types, and encourage more hardwoods on private forest lands. Our study highlights potential tradeoffs that could arise from pricing one ecosystem service (e.g., carbon) while leaving others (e.g., wildlife habitat) unpriced. Our study demonstrates the importance of anticipating potential changes in ecosystem services and biodiversity resulting from forest landowners’ climate adaptation behavior and accounting for a broader set of environmental benefits and costs when designing policies to address climate change.

Green Power Capacity Futures Market Outlook

According to our latest research, the global Green Power Capacity Futures market size reached USD 15.2 billion in 2024, driven by increasing demand for renewable energy hedging instruments and the growing adoption of green power procurement strategies by utilities and corporates. The market is projected to grow at a robust CAGR of 18.7% from 2025 to 2033, reaching an estimated USD 82.3 billion by 2033. This significant growth is propelled by the ongoing global energy transition, policy mandates for carbon neutrality, and the maturation of financial instruments tailored for renewable energy capacity trading.

One of the most influential growth factors for the Green Power Capacity Futures market is the accelerating global shift toward decarbonization and clean energy integration. Governments across the world are implementing ambitious renewable energy targets, carbon pricing mechanisms, and supportive regulatory frameworks that incentivize both the production and consumption of green power. This policy momentum, combined with increasing investor and corporate focus on Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) criteria, is compelling energy market participants to seek sophisticated risk management tools such as green power futures. The ability of these instruments to provide price certainty, hedge against market volatility, and facilitate long-term power purchase agreements is making them indispensable in the evolving energy landscape.

Another key driver is the rapid technological advancement and cost reduction in renewable power generation, particularly in wind and solar segments. As the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for renewables continues to decline, the share of variable and intermittent energy sources in the grid is rising, creating new challenges and opportunities in power market operations. Green Power Capacity Futures enable market participants to manage the inherent risks associated with these fluctuations, ensuring financial stability and operational predictability. Moreover, the increasing sophistication of trading platforms, including the integration of blockchain and AI-driven analytics, is enhancing transparency, liquidity, and efficiency in green power futures markets, thereby attracting a broader spectrum of participants from utilities to institutional investors.

The growing participation of corporate buyers and independent power producers (IPPs) is further fueling the expansion of the Green Power Capacity Futures market. Large industrial and commercial consumers are increasingly seeking to meet their sustainability commitments through direct procurement of renewable energy, often facilitated by futures contracts. These contracts allow buyers to lock in prices, hedge against future cost increases, and demonstrate compliance with renewable portfolio standards or voluntary green energy targets. The rise of green energy certificates and the convergence of physical and financial power markets are also contributing to the proliferation of customized futures products, tailored to the specific risk profiles and procurement strategies of diverse end-users.

From a regional perspective, Europe and North America continue to lead the Green Power Capacity Futures market in terms of trading volumes, regulatory maturity, and product innovation. However, the Asia Pacific region is emerging as a high-growth market, driven by rapid renewable energy capacity additions in China, India, and Southeast Asia. Regional exchanges are launching new green power futures products, and cross-border trading initiatives are gaining traction, reflecting the globalization of renewable energy finance. The interplay of regional policy frameworks, grid integration challenges, and market liberalization efforts will shape the competitive dynamics and growth trajectory of the global Green Power Capacity Futures market in the coming decade.

The concept of a Renewable Energy Hedge Contract is becoming increasingly important in the context of green power futures. These contracts are designed to provide financial stability and predictability for both producers and consumers of renewable energy by locking in prices for future power delivery. As renewable energy sources like wind and solar become more prevalent, their inherent variability poses challenges for grid operators and market p

The global Carbon Pricing Software market is projected to reach a valuation of approximately USD 3.5 billion by 2033, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.4% from 2025 to 2033.

There were approximately ***** companies worldwide using internal carbon pricing (ICP) as of 2021. Meanwhile, some ***** companies were planning to implement an ICP in the next two years. The number of companies using or planning to use an ICP more than doubled between 2017 and 2021.Setting an internal price on carbon allows companies to assign a monetary value to their greenhouse gas emissions, helping them plan for a low carbon future.

Steel fell to 3,005 CNY/T on October 1, 2025, down 0.89% from the previous day. Over the past month, Steel's price has fallen 2.31%, and is down 10.83% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Steel - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on October of 2025.

The global carbon tax market is experiencing robust growth, driven by increasing global awareness of climate change and the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Governments worldwide are implementing carbon pricing mechanisms, including carbon taxes, to incentivize businesses and individuals to adopt cleaner technologies and practices. This market is projected to reach a significant size, estimated at $150 billion in 2025, based on current market trends and adoption rates. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for the period 2025-2033 is estimated to be 8%, reflecting the expected intensification of climate policies and technological advancements in carbon capture and emission reduction. Key segments driving growth include carbon dioxide taxes in the industrial sector, followed by transportation and agriculture. The market is geographically diverse, with significant contributions from North America and Europe, though the Asia-Pacific region is anticipated to show accelerated growth due to rapid industrialization and increasing government regulations. While the implementation of effective carbon tax systems faces challenges such as economic impact on certain industries and the complexity of cross-border regulations, the long-term trajectory points toward consistent growth due to increasing international cooperation on climate action and evolving technological solutions for carbon emission mitigation. The leading revenue generators in the carbon tax market are governmental tax agencies like the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), Canada Revenue Agency, and similar entities across the globe. These agencies play a crucial role in the implementation and enforcement of carbon tax policies, shaping market dynamics. The market's future trajectory will be significantly influenced by evolving international agreements, technological advancements in renewable energy, and the evolving geopolitical landscape, all of which have the potential to accelerate or decelerate the rate of carbon tax adoption and enforcement globally. Further research into specific regional implementations and economic impacts is needed to refine these projections and to offer a more nuanced analysis for specific market segments. However, the overarching trend remains clear: significant expansion of the carbon tax market is anticipated for the foreseeable future.