The Capital District of Bogotá welcomed more than *** million international tourists in Colombia in 2023, while Antioquia – with Medellín as capital – received roughly *** thousand foreign visitors arriving in the South American country that year. Bogotá: the main travel hub in Colombia With a population approximating ***** million inhabitants, Bogotá is not only the capital of Colombia but also its most populated city. In addition to that, its geographic location —right in the middle of the country's territory— has also enabled this metropolis to become the most important crossing point for international and domestic travelers. Bogotá’s International Airport is by a wide margin, the main point of entry into the Latin American country, handling more than *** million passengers each month in pre-pandemic times. Cartagena: the most attractive destination of the Colombian Caribbean coast With its Spanish colonial buildings of the walled city, the modern vibe of Boca Grande, and the colorful houses of Getsemaní, Cartagena attracts many international and domestic tourists each year. This Caribbean city is also Colombia's cruise tourism center, with more than *** thousand passenger arrivals per year in pre-pandemic times. Consequently, Bolívar ranks among the departments with the largest number of accommodation establishments in Colombia, with nearly *** thousand in total.

In 2022, the United States was the most common country of origin among international tourists in Colombia. That year, over *** thousand visitors from the North American country traveled to Colombian territory. That same year, Venezuela was the country of origin of nearly *** thousand foreigner travelers in its neighboring country, while Ecuador accounted for another *** thousand tourists to that same destination.

In 2021, the number of cruise passengers arriving in Colombia was lowest recorded since 2010, reaching only a little over nine thousand. In the previous year, this figure had dropped by more than 60 percent due to the travel industry's crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The port of Cartagena, the country's most important hub for this type of tourism, lost more than 300 thousand cruise passengers between 2019 and 2021.

Bogota, Medellin, and Cartagena were the most visited Colombian cities by international tourists between 2020 and 2022. In that latter year, the Colombian capital welcomed more *** million foreigners.

The five scenarios describe plausible changes in 15 external drivers of the socioecosystem of the Mar Menor and surrounding Campo de Cartagena between 1964 and 2070. These scenarios were developed for evaluation of their impacts on Key Performance Indicators of sustainability using a simulation model based on System Dynamics. This model, developed by Martínez-López et al (2022) can be consulted here.

Historic data combined with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from the IPCC report ‘Global warming of 1.5°C’ and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), were used as starting point to develop the model-specific scenarios. The five scenarios are based on SSP 1, SSP2, SSP4 and SSP5 in combination with emission scenarios that will keep global temperature rise below 1.5ºC. The BAU scenario represents a combination of SSP2 without any climate change.

The detailed documentation of SSPs from O’Neil et al (http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004) and subsequent expert interviews and input received during stakeholder workshops organised in the framework of the COASTAL project were used to prepare the region-specific time-series of the 15 variables for the Mar Menor and surrounding Campo de Cartagena.

The 15 external drivers are:

1. Agricultural revenue per hectare
2. Growth rate of agriculture
3. Percentage of nutrients that are metabolized by the native lagoon ecosystem
4. Average excess of fertilizer use
5. Yearly effectiveness in nutrients reduction of nutrients, soil and water retention measures
6. Electricity Price
7. Mean number of hours per day of photovoltaic electricity production
8. Photovoltaic energy facilities growth rate in Megawatts installed
9. Growth rate of tourism
10. Average percentage of groundwater desalinated
11. Agricultural water demand per hectare
12. Catchment water sources
13. Urban wastewater treatment plant effluents
14. Yearly average of sea water desalination
15. Amount of water transferred from the Tagus river (RCP15ATS)

The building boom (1998-2007) that took place along the Mediterranean coast of Spain, where the Region of Murcia is situated, produced an enormous increase in the extent and number of built-up areas, partly as a consequence of the demand on the part of retired people (mainly from the north of Europe) drawn, amongst other factors, by the climate. Indeed, the number of this type of resident increased 7.5-fold between 1991 and 20112 (Membrado Tena, 2015). Among the regions affected along the Spanish Mediterranean coast is the administrative area known as the “Comarca del Campo de Cartagena Mar Menor” (CCCMM), where the change from the classic “sun and beach” tourism to residential tourism is evident. The result here and in other areas along the coast is a radical transformation of the landscape. The absence of any planning and the rapid way in which such tourism has extended has hade a strong environmental impact. Some of the most negative consequences have been changes in soil use (IGN, 2006; Burriel, 2008; Gaja, 2008; Romero 2010; Rullán, 2011; the destruction of the landscape; drought in regions with water shortage (Vera, 2006); artificial soil sealing, with the consequent increase of flood risk. The area analysed is one of the most important tourism attractions of the province of Murcia due to its climatic characteristics, natural spaces and recreational potential. It is also an area where second homes have been built since the mid 1970s, especially around the Mar Menor lagoon.

The building boom (1998-2007) that took place along the Mediterranean coast of Spain, where the Region of Murcia is situated, produced an enormous increase in the extent and number of built-up areas, partly as a consequence of the demand on the part of retired people (mainly from the north of Europe) drawn, amongst other factors, by the climate. Indeed, the number of this type of resident increased 7.5-fold between 1991 and 20112 (Membrado Tena, 2015). Among the regions affected along the Spanish Mediterranean coast is the administrative area known as the “Comarca del Campo de Cartagena Mar Menor” (CCCMM), where the change from the classic “sun and beach” tourism to residential tourism is evident. The result here and in other areas along the coast is a radical transformation of the landscape. The absence of any planning and the rapid way in which such tourism has extended has hade a strong environmental impact. Some of the most negative consequences have been changes in soil use (IGN, 2006; Burriel, 2008; Gaja, 2008; Romero 2010; Rullán, 2011; the destruction of the landscape; drought in regions with water shortage (Vera, 2006); artificial soil sealing, with the consequent increase of flood risk. The area analysed is one of the most important tourism attractions of the province of Murcia due to its climatic characteristics, natural spaces and recreational potential. It is also an area where second homes have been built since the mid 1970s, especially around the Mar Menor lagoon.

In 2022, the city of Cartagena registered the highest occupancy rate of hotels in Colombia, with around ** percent. The island of San Andrés followed in that same high-season month, with a hotel occupancy also above ** percent.