In June 2024, the European Central Bank (ECB) began reducing its fixed interest rate for the first time since 2016, implementing a series of cuts. The rate decreased from 4.5 percent to 3.15 percent by year-end: a 0.25 percentage point cut in June, followed by additional reductions in September, October, and December. The central bank implemented another cut in early 2025, setting the rate at 2.9 percent. This marked a significant shift from the previous rate hike cycle, which began in July 2022 when the ECB raised rates to 0.5 percent and subsequently increased them almost monthly, reaching 4.5 percent by December 2023 - the highest level since the 2007-2008 global financial crisis. How does this ensure liquidity? Banks typically hold only a fraction of their capital in cash, measured by metrics like the Tier 1 capital ratio. Since this ratio is low, banks prefer to allocate most of their capital to revenue-generating loans. When their cash reserves fall too low, banks borrow from the ECB to cover short-term liquidity needs. On the other hand, commercial banks can also deposit excess funds with the ECB at a lower interest rate. Reasons for fluctuations
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability. The Euro area inflation rate is, in theory, the key indicator guiding the ECB's actions. When the fixed interest rate is lower, commercial banks are more likely to borrow from the ECB, increasing the money supply and, in turn, driving inflation higher. When inflation rises, the ECB increases the fixed interest rate, which slows borrowing and helps to reduce inflation.

In January 2025, global inflation rates and central bank interest rates showed significant variation across major economies. Most economies initiated interest rate cuts from mid-2024 due to declining inflationary pressures. The U.S., UK, and EU central banks followed a consistent pattern of regular rate reductions throughout late 2024. In early 2025, Russia maintained the highest interest rate at 21 percent, while Japan retained the lowest at 0.5 percent. Varied inflation rates across major economies The inflation landscape varies considerably among major economies. China had the lowest inflation rate at 0.5 percent in January 2025. In contrast, Russia maintained a high inflation rate of 9.9 percent. These figures align with broader trends observed in early 2025, where China had the lowest inflation rate among major developed and emerging economies, while Russia's rate remained the highest. Central bank responses and economic indicators Central banks globally implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-23 to combat inflation. The European Central Bank exemplified this trend, raising rates from 0 percent in January 2022 to 4.5 percent by September 2023. A coordinated shift among major central banks began in mid-2024, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting further cuts through 2025 and 2026.

This data package includes the underlying data and files to replicate the calculations, charts, and tables presented in Public Debt and Low Interest Rates, PIIE Working Paper 19-4. If you use the data, please cite as: Blanchard, Olivier. (2019). Public Debt and Low Interest Rates. PIIE Working Paper 19-4. Peterson Institute for International Economics.

The benchmark interest rate in Australia was last recorded at 4.10 percent. This dataset provides - Australia Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has undergone significant changes since 2007, reflecting its response to major economic crises. From a modest 0.9 trillion U.S. dollars at the end of 2007, it ballooned to approximately 6.76 trillion U.S. dollars by March 2025. This dramatic expansion, particularly during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic - both of which resulted in negative annual GDP growth in the U.S. - showcases the Fed's crucial role in stabilizing the economy through expansionary monetary policies. Impact on inflation and interest rates The Fed's expansionary measures, while aimed at stimulating economic growth, have had notable effects on inflation and interest rates. Following the quantitative easing in 2020, inflation in the United States reached eight percent in 2022, the highest since 1991. However, by November 2024, inflation had declined to 2.7 percent. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of interest rate hikes, with the rate peaking at 5.33 percent in August 2023, before the first rate cut since September 2021 occurred in September 2024. Financial implications for the Federal Reserve The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and subsequent interest rate hikes have had significant financial implications. In 2023, the Fed reported a negative net income of 114.3 billion U.S. dollars, a stark contrast to the 58.84 billion U.S. dollars profit in 2022. This unprecedented shift was primarily due to rapidly rising interest rates, which caused the Fed's interest expenses to soar to over 281 billion U.S. dollars in 2023. Despite this, the Fed's net interest income on securities acquired through open market operations reached a record high of 174.53 billion U.S. dollars in the same year.

Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median (FEDTARMD) from 2025 to 2027 about projection, federal, median, rate, and USA.

The long-term interest rate on government debt is a key indicator of the economic health of a country. The rate reflects financial market actors' perceptions of the creditworthiness of the government and the health of the domestic economy, with a strong and robust economic outlook allowing governments to borrow for essential investments in their economies, thereby boosting long-term growth.

The Euro and converging interest rates in the early 2000s

In the case of many Eurozone countries, the early 2000s were a time where this virtuous cycle of economic growth reduced the interest rates they paid on government debt to less than 5 percent, a dramatic change from the pre-Euro era of the 1990s. With the outbreak of the Global Financial Crisis and the subsequent deep recession, however, the economies of Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland were seen to be much weaker than previously assumed by lenders. Interest rates on their debt gradually began to rise during the crisis, before rapidly increasing beginning in 2010, as first Greece and then Ireland and Portugal lost the faith of financial markets.

The Eurozone crisis

This market adjustment was initially triggered due to revelations by the Greek government that the country's budget deficit was much larger than had been previously expected, with investors seeing the country as an unreliable debtor. The crisis, which became known as the Eurozone crisis, spread to Ireland and then Portugal, as lenders cut-off lending to highly indebted Eurozone members with weak fundamentals. During this period there was also intense speculation that due to unsustainable debt loads, some countries would have to leave the Euro currency area, further increasing the interest on their debt. Interest rates on their debt began to come back down after ECB Chief Mario Draghi signaled to markets that the central bank would intervene to keep the states within the currency area in his famous "whatever it takes" speech in Summer 2012.

The return of higher interest rates in the post-COVID era

Since this period of extremely high interest rates on government debt for these member states, the interest they are charged for borrowing has shrunk considerably, as the financial markets were flooded with "cheap money" due to the policy measures of central banks in the aftermath of the financial crisis, such as near-zero policy rates and quantitative easing. As interest rates have risen to combat inflation since 2022, so have the interest rates on government debt in the Eurozone also risen, however, these rises are modest compared to during the Eurozone crisis.

Graph and download economic data for 15-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE15US) from 1991-08-30 to 2025-03-20 about 15-year, fixed, mortgage, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

In 2023, personal savings amounted to 4.51 percent of the disposable income in the United States. The personal savings rate peaked in 2020, when U.S. households saved on average over 15 percent of their income. That year and in 2021, there were measures implemented to contain the spread of the COVID-19 virus which limited the ability of people to go out and spend their money, which resulted in people saving more than usual.

Savings during recessions During recessions, households often tend to increase their savings due to economic uncertainty and to compensate for any possible loss of income, which could occur, for example, in the case of falling into unemployment. For example, as seen in this statistic, the savings rate increased noticeably between 2007 and 2012, coinciding with a period of crisis. However, there are also factors that affect the amount of money that households can manage to set aside, such as inflation. Saving can be particularly difficult during periods when the inflation rate has been higher than the growth rates of wages.

Savings accounts The value of savings deposits and other checkable deposits in the U.S. amounted to roughly 11 trillion U.S. dollars in late 2023, even after a significant fall in the amount of money placed in those types of instruments. In other words, savings accounts are a type of financial asset that is very widely used among households to save money. Nevertheless, interest rates of savings’ accounts differ a lot from one financial institution to another. Some of the lesser-known online banks had the highest interest rates, while the major banks often offered lower interest rates.

The "Debt of the City of Paris" dataset presents the breakdown of Parisian debt in bank or bond format* in a few key figures. Bond debt represents issues of debt securities (bonds) made by the City of Paris on the financial markets to French or foreign institutional investors.

*as well as to the SIAAP (Syndicat Interdépartemental for Sanitation of the Paris Agglomeration)

Date
of issue
or date of
mobilization

Date of collection by the City of Paris

Last due date

End of life date of the loan

Initial capital

Amount originally subscribed.

Remaining capital due on 31/12 of the year of publication

As almost all of the City's loans are of the "in fine" type, the remaining capital due is generally equal to the nominal, i.e. the amount of the loan (except in the case of amortization within the year)

Type of interest rate

The Indexed rates are rates that are periodically adjusted according to market values

Index

City of Paris loans are indexed to different interest rates: Euribor (interbank rate of the Euro zone), the TAG (Annual rolling rate) and the T4M (Monthly Average Money Market Rate), the TAG and the T4M being derived from the Eonia (overnight rate)

Initial rate - Rate level

Rate paid for the 1st installment

Initial rate - Actuarial rate

Rate calculated over the duration of the loan

Amortization profile

Method of amortization of the loan: almost all of the City's loans are of the "in fine" type, that is to say repaid in full the last day of the contract

Possibility of repayment

Possibility left contractually to the City to withdraw from the loan by repaying it in advance

Category of loan

Classification of the loan according to the Gissler charter which establishes a classification according to the degree of risk of the loan for the local authority. Category A-1 represents the lowest level of risk.

This analysis presents a rigorous exploration of financial data, incorporating a diverse range of statistical features. By providing a robust foundation, it facilitates advanced research and innovative modeling techniques within the field of finance.

How accurate is machine learning in stock market? (TD Stock Forecast)

Financial data:

• Historical daily stock prices (open, high, low, close, volume)

• Fundamental data (e.g., market capitalization, price to earnings P/E ratio, dividend yield, earnings per share EPS, price to earnings growth, debt-to-equity ratio, price-to-book ratio, current ratio, free cash flow, projected earnings growth, return on equity, dividend payout ratio, price to sales ratio, credit rating)

• Technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD, average directional index, aroon oscillator, stochastic oscillator, on-balance volume, accumulation/distribution A/D line, parabolic SAR indicator, bollinger bands indicators, fibonacci, williams percent range, commodity channel index)

Machine learning features:

• Feature engineering based on financial data and technical indicators

• Sentiment analysis data from social media and news articles

• Macroeconomic data (e.g., GDP, unemployment rate, interest rates, consumer spending, building permits, consumer confidence, inflation, producer price index, money supply, home sales, retail sales, bond yields)

Potential Applications:

• Stock price prediction

• Portfolio optimization

• Algorithmic trading

• Market sentiment analysis

• Risk management

Use Cases:

• Researchers investigating the effectiveness of machine learning in stock market prediction

• Analysts developing quantitative trading Buy/Sell strategies

• Individuals interested in building their own stock market prediction models

• Students learning about machine learning and financial applications

Additional Notes:

• The dataset may include different levels of granularity (e.g., daily, hourly)

• Data cleaning and preprocessing are essential before model training

• Regular updates are recommended to maintain the accuracy and relevance of the data

Announce the minimum guaranteed interest rate on the first business day of each month.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 1-Month Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS1MO) from 2001-07-31 to 2025-03-25 about 1-month, bills, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

This analysis presents a rigorous exploration of financial data, incorporating a diverse range of statistical features. By providing a robust foundation, it facilitates advanced research and innovative modeling techniques within the field of finance.

S&P 500: A Bull or a Bear?

Financial data:

• Historical daily stock prices (open, high, low, close, volume)

• Fundamental data (e.g., market capitalization, price to earnings P/E ratio, dividend yield, earnings per share EPS, price to earnings growth, debt-to-equity ratio, price-to-book ratio, current ratio, free cash flow, projected earnings growth, return on equity, dividend payout ratio, price to sales ratio, credit rating)

• Technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD, average directional index, aroon oscillator, stochastic oscillator, on-balance volume, accumulation/distribution A/D line, parabolic SAR indicator, bollinger bands indicators, fibonacci, williams percent range, commodity channel index)

Machine learning features:

• Feature engineering based on financial data and technical indicators

• Sentiment analysis data from social media and news articles

• Macroeconomic data (e.g., GDP, unemployment rate, interest rates, consumer spending, building permits, consumer confidence, inflation, producer price index, money supply, home sales, retail sales, bond yields)

Potential Applications:

• Stock price prediction

• Portfolio optimization

• Algorithmic trading

• Market sentiment analysis

• Risk management

Use Cases:

• Researchers investigating the effectiveness of machine learning in stock market prediction

• Analysts developing quantitative trading Buy/Sell strategies

• Individuals interested in building their own stock market prediction models

• Students learning about machine learning and financial applications

Additional Notes:

• The dataset may include different levels of granularity (e.g., daily, hourly)

• Data cleaning and preprocessing are essential before model training

• Regular updates are recommended to maintain the accuracy and relevance of the data

Personal savings in the United States reached a value of 911 billion U.S. dollars in 2023, which is significantly higher than in 2022. Personal savings peaked in 2020 at nearly 2.7 trillion U.S. dollars. Those figures remained very high until 2021. The excess savings during the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. and other countries were the main reason for that increase, as the measures implemented to contain the spread of the virus had an impact on consumer spending.

Saving before and after the 2008 financial crisisDuring the periods of growth and certain economic stability in the pre-2008 crisis period, there were falling savings rates. People were confident the good times would stay and felt comfortable borrowing money. Credit was easily accessible and widely available, which encouraged people to spend money. However, in times of austerity, people generally tend to their private savings due to a higher economic uncertainty. That was also the case in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. Savings and inflationThe economic climate of high inflation and rising Federal Reserve interest rates in the U.S. made it increasingly difficult to save money in 2022. Not only does inflation affect the ability of people to save, but reversely, consumer behavior also affects inflation. On the one hand, prices can increase when the production costs are higher. That can be the case, for example, when the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil or other raw materials increases. On the other hand, when people have a lot of savings and the economy is strong, high levels of consumer demand can also increase the final price of products.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS30) from 1977-02-15 to 2025-03-24 about 30-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet ballooned following its announcement to carry out quantitative easing to increase the liquidity of U.S. banks in early 2020. The balance sheet continued to grow in the following period as well, with a downward trend in 2023. As of February 29, 2024, the Fed's balance sheet amounted to roughly 7.6 trillion U.S. dollars. The most drastic increase in the observed period took place in the first half of 2020. This measure was taken to increase the money supply and stimulate economic growth in the wake of the damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The Federal Reserve was not the only institution that implemented an expansionary monetary policy in response to the pandemic. For instance, the European Central Bank expanded its money supply in March 2020 and kept doing so over the following months. How do central banks increase the amount of money in circulation? Central banks can increase the money circulating in the economy in many ways. For instance, they can decrease banks’ reserve requirements to stimulate lending or decrease the interest rates to reduce the cost of borrowing for commercial banks. Alternatively, central banks can engage in open market operations (OMO) and buy securities such as government bonds from commercial banks or institutions. By conducting open market operations, the Federal Reserve expanded its balance sheet by seven trillion U.S. dollars between 2007 and 2023. All these measures aim to increase bank loans to entrepreneurs and consumers in order to stimulate employment and economic growth. Impact of COVID-19 on the U.S. economy The COVID-19 pandemic had a tremendous impact on national economies worldwide, and the United States was no exception. During the early months of the crisis, many lost their jobs, mostly those in lower-income categories. As a consequence, many Americans found it difficult to pay their rent and cover basic household expenses. Furthermore, in April 2022, most small business owners claimed that the pandemic had a large or moderate negative effect on their businesses. Overall, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States decreased by roughly 2.2 percent in 2020. In the following years, however, it increased notably, surpassing 25 trillion U.S. dollars in 2022.

Inflation Rate in Japan decreased to 3.70 percent in February from 4 percent in January of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Japan Inflation Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Tajikistan TJ: External Debt: INT: IMF Charges data was reported at 0.096 USD mn in 2016. This records an increase from the previous number of 0.057 USD mn for 2015. Tajikistan TJ: External Debt: INT: IMF Charges data is updated yearly, averaging 0.000 USD mn from Dec 1970 (Median) to 2016, with 47 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 6.674 USD mn in 2000 and a record low of 0.000 USD mn in 1995. Tajikistan TJ: External Debt: INT: IMF Charges data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Tajikistan – Table TJ.World Bank: External Debt: Disbursements and Interest Payment. IMF charges cover interest payments with respect to all uses of IMF resources, excluding those resulting from drawings in the reserve tranche. Data are in current U.S. dollars.; ; World Bank, International Debt Statistics.; Sum;

Microenterprise sectors are a dominant feature in urban areas of low- and middle-income countries. As much as a third of the labor force in these economies is self-employed. Those involved in retail trade—street vendors and owners of small shops and restaurants—are a plurality of small scale enterprises. These vendors earn their living using their own labor and small amounts of capital. They generally lack access to loans from formal financial institutions, relying on their own savings and perhaps informal loans from family members or friends. Surveys indicate that the lack of access to finance is one of their most often mentioned complaints.

This study uses data from the Mexican National Survey of Microenterprises (ENAMIN) to estimate returns to capital. A randomized experiment was designed to generate data which allow a consistent measure of returns to capital in microenterprises. Data was collected from a panel of microenterprises in the city of Leon, in Mexico over a period of five quarters. The baseline survey was carried out in November 2005. After the first through fourth rounds of the survey, treatments were administered in the form of either cash or equipment to randomly selected enterprises in the sample. The treatments generate shocks to capital stock which are random, uncorrelated with either the ability of the enterprise owner or the prospects for the business.

An unbiased estimate of returns to capital has important policy implications in several areas. First, the returns from investment determine the interest rates which borrowers are willing to pay to microlending organizations. Higher returns imply a higher likelihood of developing financially sustainable microlenders. Second, if returns are low below some investment threshold, then these low returns may act as an entry barrier, preventing high ability entrepreneurs without access to capital from entering. If, on the other hand, returns to capital are high at very low levels of investment, then capital-constrained entrepreneurs should be able to enter and grow to a desired size by reinvesting profits earned in the enterprise. In that case, capital constraints will have short term costs, but fewer long term effects on outcomes. High returns at low very low capital stock levels suggest that credit constraints will not lead to poverty traps.