This data package includes the underlying data files to replicate the data and charts presented in What caused the US pandemic-era inflation? PIIE Working Paper 23-4.

If you use the data, please cite as: Bernanke, Ben, and Olivier Blanchard. 2023. What caused the US pandemic-era inflation? PIIE Working Paper 23-4. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

The Consumer Price Index in the United States increased 0.20 percent in February of 2025 over the previous month. This dataset provides - United States Inflation Rate MoM - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

This dataset provides values for INFLATION RATE reported in several countries. The data includes current values, previous releases, historical highs and record lows, release frequency, reported unit and currency.

During the period beginning roughly in the mid-1980s until the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008), the U.S. economy experienced a time of relative economic calm, with low inflation and consistent GDP growth. Compared with the turbulent economic era which had preceded it in the 1970s and the early 1980s, the lack of extreme fluctuations in the business cycle led some commentators to suggest that macroeconomic issues such as high inflation, long-term unemployment and financial crises were a thing of the past. Indeed, the President of the American Economic Association, Professor Robert Lucas, famously proclaimed in 2003 that "central problem of depression prevention has been solved, for all practical purposes". Ben Bernanke, the future chairman of the Federal Reserve during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and 2022 Nobel Prize in Economics recipient, coined the term 'the Great Moderation' to describe this era of newfound economic confidence. The era came to an abrupt end with the outbreak of the GFC in the Summer of 2007, as the U.S. financial system began to crash due to a downturn in the real estate market.

Causes of the Great Moderation, and its downfall

A number of factors have been cited as contributing to the Great Moderation including central bank monetary policies, the shift from manufacturing to services in the economy, improvements in information technology and management practices, as well as reduced energy prices. The period coincided with the term of Fed chairman Alan Greenspan (1987-2006), famous for the 'Greenspan put', a policy which meant that the Fed would proactively address downturns in the stock market using its monetary policy tools. These economic factors came to prominence at the same time as the end of the Cold War (1947-1991), with the U.S. attaining a new level of hegemony in global politics, as its main geopolitical rival, the Soviet Union, no longer existed. During the Great Moderation, the U.S. experienced a recession twice, between July 1990 and March 1991, and again from March 2001 tom November 2001, however, these relatively short recessions did not knock the U.S. off its growth path. The build up of household and corporate debt over the early 2000s eventually led to the Global Financial Crisis, as the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble in 2007 reverberated across the financial system, with a subsequent credit freeze and mass defaults.

In economics, the inflation rate is a measure of the change in price of a basket of goods. The most common measure being the consumer price index. It is the percentage rate of change in price level over time, and also indicates the rate of decrease in the purchasing power of money. The annual rate of inflation for 2023, was 4.1 percent higher in the United States when compared to the previous year. More information on inflation and the consumer price index can be found on our dedicated topic page. Additionally, the monthly rate of inflation in the United States can be accessed here. Inflation and purchasing power Inflation is a key economic indicator, and gives economists and consumers alike a look at changes in prices in the wider economy. For example, if an average pair of socks costs 100 dollars one year and 105 dollars the following year, the inflation rate is five percent. This means the amount of goods an individual can purchase with a unit of currency has decreased. This concept is often referred to as purchasing power. The data presents the average rate of inflation in a year, whereas the monthly measure of inflation measures the change in prices compared with prices one year ago. For example, monthly inflation in the U.S. reached a peak in June 2022 at 9.1 percent. This means that prices were 9.1 percent higher than they were in June of 2021. The purchasing power is the extent to which a person has available funds to make purchases. The Big Mac Index has been published by The Economist since 1986 and exemplifies purchasing power on a global scale, allowing us to see note the differences between different countries currencies. Switzerland for example, has the most expensive Big Mac in the world, costing consumers 6.71 U.S. dollars as of July 2022, whereas a Big Mac cost 5.15 dollars in the United States, and 4.77 dollars in the Euro area. One of the most important tools in influencing the rate of inflation is interest rates. The Federal Reserve of the United States has the capacity to make changes to the federal interest rate . Changes to the rate of inflation are thought to be an imbalance between supply and demand. After COVID-19 related lockdowns came to an end there was a sudden increase in demand for goods and services with consumers having more funds than usual thanks to reduced spending during lockdown and government funded economic support. Additionally, supply-chain related bottlenecks also due to lockdowns around the world and the Russian invasion of Ukraine meant that there was a decrease in the supply of goods and services. By increasing the interest rate, the Federal Reserve aims to reduce spending, and thus bring demand back into balance with supply.

The inflation rate in the United States is expected to decrease to 2.1 percent by 2029. 2022 saw a year of exceptionally high inflation, reaching eight percent for the year. The data represents U.S. city averages. The base period was 1982-84. In economics, the inflation rate is a measurement of inflation, the rate of increase of a price index (in this case: consumer price index). It is the percentage rate of change in prices level over time. The rate of decrease in the purchasing power of money is approximately equal. According to the forecast, prices will increase by 2.9 percent in 2024. The annual inflation rate for previous years can be found here and the consumer price index for all urban consumers here. The monthly inflation rate for the United States can also be accessed here. Inflation in the U.S.Inflation is a term used to describe a general rise in the price of goods and services in an economy over a given period of time. Inflation in the United States is calculated using the consumer price index (CPI). The consumer price index is a measure of change in the price level of a preselected market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households. This forecast of U.S. inflation was prepared by the International Monetary Fund. They project that inflation will stay higher than average throughout 2023, followed by a decrease to around roughly two percent annual rise in the general level of prices until 2028. Considering the annual inflation rate in the United States in 2021, a two percent inflation rate is a very moderate projection. The 2022 spike in inflation in the United States and worldwide is due to a variety of factors that have put constraints on various aspects of the economy. These factors include COVID-19 pandemic spending and supply-chain constraints, disruptions due to the war in Ukraine, and pandemic related changes in the labor force. Although the moderate inflation of prices between two and three percent is considered normal in a modern economy, countries’ central banks try to prevent severe inflation and deflation to keep the growth of prices to a minimum. Severe inflation is considered dangerous to a country’s economy because it can rapidly diminish the population’s purchasing power and thus damage the GDP .

Inflation Rate in Japan decreased to 3.70 percent in February from 4 percent in January of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Japan Inflation Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

In the United States, year-on-year (YoY) inflation for online grocery products was approximately 13.6 percent as of October 2022. From June 2021 to October 2022, monthly inflation in this category was the highest in August 2022, at roughly 17 percent.

Inflationary market

Inflation has skyrocketed. In the United States, the inflation rate peaked at 8.3 percent as of June 2022. The last time the U.S. saw such high values was in 1990, when the inflation rate stood at 5.4 percent. But it's not all doom and gloom. According to a forecast, the global inflation rate will decrease to 4.85 percent in 2023 and continue to decline.

Ever-rising prices

Consumers are changing their shopping habits in response to the bleakest inflationary market the industry has seen in decades. Rising grocery prices are the main issue affecting online shoppers worldwide. While grocery products are the latest items to be cut off by consumers in times of instability, rising prices will cause shoppers to purchase less and find cheaper alternatives for fashion items. Moreover, in February 2022, roughly 62 percent of global buyers changed their purchase habits with alcoholic beverages, 57 percent with packaged food, and 44 percent with fresh food.

Inflation Rate in Turkey decreased to 39.05 percent in February from 42.12 percent in January of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Turkey Inflation Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Graph and download economic data for Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy in U.S. City Average (CPILFENS) from Jan 1957 to Feb 2025 about core, all items, urban, consumer, CPI, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

In December 2024, inflation amounted to 2.9 percent, while wages grew by 4.2 percent. The inflation rate has not exceeded the rate of wage growth since January 2023. Inflation in 2022 The high rates of inflation in 2022 meant that the real terms value of American wages took a hit. Many Americans report feelings of concern over the economy and a worsening of their financial situation. The inflation situation in the United States is one that was experienced globally in 2022, mainly due to COVID-19 related supply chain constraints and disruption due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The monthly inflation rate for the U.S. reached a 40-year high in June 2022 at 9.1 percent, and annual inflation for 2022 reached eight percent. Without appropriate wage increases, Americans will continue to see a decline in their purchasing power. Wages in the U.S. Despite the level of wage growth reaching 6.7 percent in the summer of 2022, it has not been enough to curb the impact of even higher inflation rates. The federally mandated minimum wage in the United States has not increased since 2009, meaning that individuals working minimum wage jobs have taken a real terms pay cut for the last twelve years. There are discrepancies between states - the minimum wage in California can be as high as 15.50 U.S. dollars per hour, while a business in Oklahoma may be as low as two U.S. dollars per hour. However, even the higher wage rates in states like California and Washington may be lacking - one analysis found that if minimum wage had kept up with productivity, the minimum hourly wage in the U.S. should have been 22.88 dollars per hour in 2021. Additionally, the impact of decreased purchasing power due to inflation will impact different parts of society in different ways with stark contrast in average wages due to both gender and race.

Inflation Rate in Thailand decreased to 1.08 percent in February from 1.32 percent in January of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Thailand Inflation Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Inflation Rate in Pakistan decreased to 1.50 percent in February from 2.40 percent in January of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Pakistan Inflation Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

This dataset provides values for INFLATION RATE reported in several countries. The data includes current values, previous releases, historical highs and record lows, release frequency, reported unit and currency.

In a survey conducted in the United States in May 2022, the vast majority of respondents (93 percent) said that inflation affected their decision to buy and sell pre-owned goods. The main reason driving recommerce demand was the concern to save money and hunt for bargains.

Inflation, GDP deflator (annual %) in American Samoa was reported at 14.15 % in 2022, according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. American Samoa - Inflation, GDP deflator (annual %) - actual values, historical data, forecasts and projections were sourced from the World Bank on March of 2025.

According to a survey conducted between July 9 and July 11, 2022, 45 percent of Americans thought that Joe Biden was highly responsible for the current trend in the inflation rate. This is compared to 26 percent of Americans who said President Biden did not have a lot of responsibility for the current inflation rate.

Inflation in the U.S. Global events in 2022 had a significant impact on the United States. Inflation rose from 1.4 percent in January 2021 to 9.1 percent in June 2022. Significantly higher prices of basic goods led to increased concern over the state of the economy, and the ability to cover increasing monthly costs with the same income. Low interest rates, COVID-19-related supply constraints, corporate profiteering, and strong consumer spending had already put pressure on prices before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Despite rising wages on paper, the rapid growth of consumer prices resulted in an overall decline in real hourly earnings in the first half of 2022.

How much control does Joe Biden have over inflation? The bulk of economic performance and the inflation rate is determined by factors outside the President’s direct control, but U.S. presidents are often held accountable for it. Some of those factors are market forces, private business, productivity growth, the state of the global economy, and policies of the Federal Reserve. Although high-spending decisions such as the 2021 COVID-19 relief bill may have contributed to rising inflation rates, the bill has been seen by economists as a necessary intervention for preventing a recession at the time, as well as being of significant importance to low-income workers impacted by the pandemic.

The most important tool for curbing inflation and controlling the U.S. economy is the Federal Reserve. The Reserve has the ability to set, raise, and lower interest rates and determine the wider monetary policy for the United States – something out of the president’s control. In June 2022, the Reserve announced it would raise interest rates 0.75 percent for the second time that year – hoisting the rate to a target range of 2.25 to 2.5 percent – in an attempt to slow consumer demand and balance demand with supply. However, it can often take time before the impacts of interventions by the Federal Reserve are seen in the public’s day-to-day lives. Most economists expect this wave of inflation to pass in a year to 18 months.

As of December 2024, the inflation rate in the European Union was 2.7 percent, with prices rising fastest in Romania, which had an inflation rate of 5.5 percent. By contrast, both Ireland and Italy saw low inflation rates during the same period, with Ireland having the lowest inflation rate in the EU during this month. The rate of inflation in the EU in the October 2022 was higher than at any other time, with the peak prior to 2021 recorded in July 2008 when prices were growing by 4.4 percent year-on-year. Before the recent rises in inflation, price rises in the EU had been kept at relatively low levels, with the inflation rate remaining below three percent between January 2012 and August 2021. Rapid recovery and energy costs driving inflation The reopening of the European economy in 2021 following the sudden shock of COVID-19 in 2020 is behind many of the factors that have caused prices to rise so quickly in 2022. Global supply chains have not yet recovered from production issues, travel restrictions, and workforce problems brought about by the pandemic. Rising energy costs have only served to exacerbate supply problems, particularly with regard to the transport sector, which had the highest inflation rate of any sector in the EU in December 2021. High inflation rates mirrored in the U.S. The high inflation rates seen in Europe have been reflected in other parts of the world. In the United States, for example, the consumer price index reached a 40-year-high of seven percent in December 2021, influenced by many of the same factors driving European inflation. Nevertheless, it is hoped that once these supply chain issues ease, inflation levels will start to fall throughout the course of 2022.

Graph and download economic data for Personal Consumption Expenditures: Chain-type Price Index (PCEPI) from Jan 1959 to Jan 2025 about chained, headline figure, PCE, consumption expenditures, consumption, personal, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

The Volcker Shock was a period of historically high interest rates precipitated by Federal Reserve Chairperson Paul Volcker's decision to raise the central bank's key interest rate, the Fed funds effective rate, during the first three years of his term. Volcker was appointed chairperson of the Fed in August 1979 by President Jimmy Carter, as replacement for William Miller, who Carter had made his treasury secretary. Volcker was one of the most hawkish (supportive of tighter monetary policy to stem inflation) members of the Federal Reserve's committee, and quickly set about changing the course of monetary policy in the U.S. in order to quell inflation. The Volcker Shock is remembered for bringing an end to over a decade of high inflation in the United States, prompting a deep recession and high unemployment, and for spurring on debt defaults among developing countries in Latin America who had borrowed in U.S. dollars.

Monetary tightening and the recessions of the early '80s

Beginning in October 1979, Volcker's Fed tightened monetary policy by raising interest rates. This decision had the effect of depressing demand and slowing down the U.S. economy, as credit became more expensive for households and businesses. The Fed funds rate, the key overnight rate at which banks lend their excess reserves to each other, rose as high as 17.6 percent in early 1980. The rate was allowed to fall back below 10 percent following this first peak, however, due to worries that inflation was not falling fast enough, a second cycle of monetary tightening was embarked upon starting in August of 1980. The rate would reach its all-time peak in June of 1981, at 19.1 percent. The second recession sparked by these hikes was far deeper than the 1980 recession, with unemployment peaking at 10.8 percent in December 1980, the highest level since The Great Depression. This recession would drive inflation to a low point during Volcker's terms of 2.5 percent in August 1983.

The legacy of the Volcker Shock

By the end of Volcker's terms as Fed Chair, inflation was at a manageable rate of around four percent, while unemployment had fallen under six percent, as the economy grew and business confidence returned. While supporters of Volcker's actions point to these numbers as proof of the efficacy of his actions, critics have claimed that there were less harmful ways that inflation could have been brought under control. The recessions of the early 1980s are cited as accelerating deindustrialization in the U.S., as manufacturing jobs lost in 'rust belt' states such as Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania never returned during the years of recovery. The Volcker Shock was also a driving factor behind the Latin American debt crises of the 1980s, as governments in the region defaulted on debts which they had incurred in U.S. dollars. Debates about the validity of using interest rate hikes to get inflation under control have recently re-emerged due to the inflationary pressures facing the U.S. following the Coronavirus pandemic and the Federal Reserve's subsequent decision to embark on a course of monetary tightening.