The Finance sector's operating environment was previously characterised by record-low interest rates. Nonetheless, high inflation prompted the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hike the cash rate from May 2022 onwards. This shift allowed financial institutions to impose higher loan charges, propelling their revenue. Banks raised interest rates quicker than funding costs in the first half of 2022-23, boosting net interest margins. However, sophisticated competition and digital disruption have reshaped the sector and nibbled at the Big Four's dominance, weighing on ADIs' performance. In the first half of 2025, the fierce competition has forced ADIs to trim lending rates even ahead of RBA moves to protect their slice of the mortgage market. Higher cash rates initially widened net interest margins, but the expiry of cheap TFF funding and a fierce mortgage war are now compressing spreads, weighing on ADIs' profitability. Although ANZ's 2024 Suncorp Bank takeover highlights some consolidation, the real contest is unfolding in tech. Larger financial institutions are combatting intensified competition from neobanks and fintechs by upscaling their technology investments, strengthening their strategic partnerships with cloud providers and technology consulting firms and augmenting their digital offerings. Notable examples include the launch of ANZ Plus by ANZ and Commonwealth Bank's Unloan. Meanwhile, investor demand for rental properties, elevated residential housing prices and sizable state-infrastructure pipelines have continued to underpin loan growth, offsetting the drag from weaker mortgage affordability and volatile business sentiment. Overall, subdivision revenue is expected to rise at an annualised 8.3% over the five years through 2024-25, to $524.6 billion. This growth trajectory includes an estimated 4.8% decline in 2024-25 driven by rate cuts in 2025, which will weigh on income from interest-bearing assets. The Big Four banks will double down on technology investments and partnerships to counter threats from fintech startups and neobanks. As cybersecurity risks and APRA regulations evolve, financial institutions will gear up to strengthen their focus on shielding sensitive customer data and preserving trust, lifting compliance and operational costs. In the face of fierce competition, evolving regulations and shifting customer preferences, consolidation through M&As is poised to be a viable trend for survival and growth, especially among smaller financial institutions like credit unions. While rate cuts will challenge profitability within the sector, expansionary economic policies are poised to stimulate business and mortgage lending activity, presenting opportunities for strategic growth in a dynamic market. These trends are why Finance subdivision revenue is forecast to rise by an annualised 1.1% over the five years through the end of 2029-30, to $554.9 billion

Mortgage lenders are dealing with the RBA's shift to a tighter monetary policy, as it fights heavy inflation. Since May 2022, the RBA has raised the benchmark cash rate, which flows to interest rates on home loans. This represents a complete reversal of the prevailing approach to monetary policy taken in recent years. Over the course of the pandemic, subdued interest rates, in conjunction with government incentives and relaxed interest rate buffers, encouraged strong mortgage uptake. With the RBA's policy reversal, authorised deposit-taking institutions will need to balance their interest rate spreads to ensure steady profit. A stronger cash rate means more interest income from existing home loans, but also steeper funding costs. Moreover, increasing loan rates mean that prospective homeowners are being cut out of the market, which will slow demand for new home loans. Overall, industry revenue is expected to rise at an annualised 0.4% over the past five years, including an estimated 2.2% jump in 2023-24, to reach $103.4 billion. APRA's regulatory controls were updated in January 2023, with new capital adequacy ratios coming into effect. The major banks have had to tighten up their capital buffers to protect against financial instability. Although the ‘big four’ banks control most home loans, other lenders have emerged to foster competition for new loanees. Technological advances have made online-only mortgage lending viable. However, lenders that don't take deposits are more reliant on wholesale funding markets, which will be stretched under a higher cash rate. Looking ahead, technology spending isn't slowing down, as consumers continue to expect secure and user-friendly online financial services. This investment is even more pressing, given the ongoing threat of cyber-attacks. Industry revenue is projected to inch upwards at an annualised 0.8% over the five years through 2028-29, to $107.7 billion.