Reporting of new Aggregate Case and Death Count data was discontinued May 11, 2023, with the expiration of the COVID-19 public health emergency declaration. This dataset will receive a final update on June 1, 2023, to reconcile historical data through May 10, 2023, and will remain publicly available.

Aggregate Data Collection Process Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, data have been gathered through a robust process with the following steps:

• A CDC data team reviews and validates the information obtained from jurisdictions’ state and local websites via an overnight data review process.
• If more than one official county data source exists, CDC uses a comprehensive data selection process comparing each official county data source, and takes the highest case and death counts respectively, unless otherwise specified by the state.
• CDC compiles these data and posts the finalized information on COVID Data Tracker.
• County level data is aggregated to obtain state and territory specific totals.

This process is collaborative, with CDC and jurisdictions working together to ensure the accuracy of COVID-19 case and death numbers. County counts provide the most up-to-date numbers on cases and deaths by report date. CDC may retrospectively update counts to correct data quality issues.

Methodology Changes Several differences exist between the current, weekly-updated dataset and the archived version:

• Source: The current Weekly-Updated Version is based on county-level aggregate count data, while the Archived Version is based on State-level aggregate count data.
• Confirmed/Probable Cases/Death breakdown:  While the probable cases and deaths are included in the total case and total death counts in both versions (if applicable), they were reported separately from the confirmed cases and deaths by jurisdiction in the Archived Version.  In the current Weekly-Updated Version, the counts by jurisdiction are not reported by confirmed or probable status (See Confirmed and Probable Counts section for more detail).
• Time Series Frequency: The current Weekly-Updated Version contains weekly time series data (i.e., one record per week per jurisdiction), while the Archived Version contains daily time series data (i.e., one record per day per jurisdiction).
• Update Frequency: The current Weekly-Updated Version is updated weekly, while the Archived Version was updated twice daily up to October 20, 2022.

Important note: The counts reflected during a given time period in this dataset may not match the counts reflected for the same time period in the archived dataset noted above. Discrepancies may exist due to differences between county and state COVID-19 case surveillance and reconciliation efforts.

Confirmed and Probable Counts In this dataset, counts by jurisdiction are not displayed by confirmed or probable status. Instead, confirmed and probable cases and deaths are included in the Total Cases and Total Deaths columns, when available. Not all jurisdictions report probable cases and deaths to CDC.* Confirmed and probable case definition criteria are described here:

Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists (ymaws.com).

Deaths CDC reports death data on other sections of the website: CDC COVID Data Tracker: Home, CDC COVID Data Tracker: Cases, Deaths, and Testing, and NCHS Provisional Death Counts. Information presented on the COVID Data Tracker pages is based on the same source (to

Note: The cumulative case count for some counties (with small population) is higher than expected due to the inclusion of non-permanent residents in COVID-19 case counts.

Reporting of Aggregate Case and Death Count data was discontinued on May 11, 2023, with the expiration of the COVID-19 public health emergency declaration. Although these data will continue to be publicly available, this dataset will no longer be updated.

Aggregate Data Collection Process Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, data were reported through a robust process with the following steps:

• Aggregate county-level counts were obtained indirectly, via automated overnight web collection, or directly, via a data submission process.
• If more than one official county data source existed, CDC used a comprehensive data selection process comparing each official county data source to retrieve the highest case and death counts, unless otherwise specified by the state.
• A CDC data team reviewed counts for congruency prior to integration. CDC routinely compiled these data and post the finalized information on COVID Data Tracker.
• Cases and deaths are based on date of report and not on the date of symptom onset. CDC calculates rates in this data by using population estimates provided by the US Census Bureau Population Estimates Program (2019 Vintage).
• COVID-19 aggregate case and death data were organized in a time series that includes cumulative number of cases and deaths as reported by a jurisdiction on a given date. New case and death counts were calculated as the week-to-week change in reported cumulative cases and deaths (i.e., newly reported cases and deaths = cumulative number of cases/deaths reported this week minus the cumulative total reported the week before.

This process was collaborative, with CDC and jurisdictions working together to ensure the accuracy of COVID-19 case and death numbers. County counts provided the most up-to-date numbers on cases and deaths by report date. Throughout data collection, CDC retrospectively updated counts to correct known data quality issues. CDC also worked with jurisdictions after the end of the public health emergency declaration to finalize county data.

• Source: The weekly archived dataset is based on county-level aggregate count data
• Confirmed/Probable Cases/Death breakdown: Cumulative cases and deaths for each county are included. Total reported cases include probable and confirmed cases.
• Time Series Frequency: The weekly archived dataset contains weekly time series data (i.e., one record per week per county)

Important note: The counts reflected during a given time period in this dataset may not match the counts reflected for the same time period in the daily archived dataset noted above. Discrepancies may exist due to differences between county and state COVID-19 case surveillance and reconciliation efforts.

The surveillance case definition for COVID-19, a nationally notifiable disease, was first described in a position statement from the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists, which was later revised. However, there is some variation in how jurisdictions implement these case classifications. More information on how CDC collects COVID-19 case surveillance data can be found at FAQ: COVID-19 Data and Surveillance.

Confirmed and Probable Counts In this dataset, counts by jurisdiction are not displayed by confirmed or probable status. Instead, counts of confirmed and probable cases and deaths are included in the Total Cases and Total Deaths columns, when available. Not all jurisdictions report

Reporting of Aggregate Case and Death Count data was discontinued on May 11, 2023, with the expiration of the COVID-19 public health emergency declaration. Although these data will continue to be publicly available, this dataset will no longer be updated.

The surveillance case definition for COVID-19, a nationally notifiable disease, was first described in a position statement from the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists, which was later revised. However, there is some variation in how jurisdictions implemented these case definitions. More information on how CDC collects COVID-19 case surveillance data can be found at FAQ: COVID-19 Data and Surveillance.

Aggregate Data Collection Process Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, data were reported from state and local health departments through a robust process with the following steps:

• Aggregate county-level counts were obtained indirectly, via automated overnight web collection, or directly, via a data submission process.
• If more than one official county data source existed, CDC used a comprehensive data selection process comparing each official county data source to retrieve the highest case and death counts, unless otherwise specified by the state.
• A CDC data team reviewed counts for congruency prior to integration and set up alerts to monitor for discrepancies in the data.
• CDC routinely compiled these data and post the finalized information on COVID Data Tracker.
• County level data were aggregated to obtain state- and territory- specific totals.
• Counting of cases and deaths is based on date of report and not on the date of symptom onset. CDC calculates rates in these data by using population estimates provided by the US Census Bureau Population Estimates Program (2019 Vintage).
• COVID-19 aggregate case and death data are organized in a time series that includes cumulative number of cases and deaths as reported by a jurisdiction on a given date. New case and death counts are calculated as the week-to-week change in cumulative counts of cases and deaths reported (i.e., newly reported cases and deaths = cumulative number of cases/deaths reported this week minus the cumulative total reported the prior week.

This process was collaborative, with CDC and jurisdictions working together to ensure the accuracy of COVID-19 case and death numbers. County counts provided the most up-to-date numbers on cases and deaths by report date. Throughout data collection, CDC retrospectively updated counts to correct known data quality issues.

Description This archived public use dataset focuses on the cumulative and weekly case and death rates per 100,000 persons within various sociodemographic factors across all states and their counties. All resulting data are expressed as rates calculated as the number of cases or deaths per 100,000 persons in counties meeting various classification criteria using the US Census Bureau Population Estimates Program (2019 Vintage).

Each county within jurisdictions is classified into multiple categories for each factor. All rates in this dataset are based on classification of counties by the characteristics of their population, not individual-level factors. This applies to each of the available factors observed in this dataset. Specific factors and their corresponding categories are detailed below.

Population-level factors Each unique population factor is detailed below. Please note that the “Classification” column describes each of the 12 factors in the dataset, including a data dict

Updates

• Notice of data discontinuation: Since the start of the pandemic, AP has reported case and death counts from data provided by Johns Hopkins University. Johns Hopkins University has announced that they will stop their daily data collection efforts after March 10. As Johns Hopkins stops providing data, the AP will also stop collecting daily numbers for COVID cases and deaths. The HHS and CDC now collect and visualize key metrics for the pandemic. AP advises using those resources when reporting on the pandemic going forward.

  • CDC Weekly case and death counts (national and state level)
  • CDC County level cases and deaths
  • HHS New hospital admissions
  • CDC NowCast COVID variant proportions (national and regional level)

• April 9, 2020

  • The population estimate data for New York County, NY has been updated to include all five New York City counties (Kings County, Queens County, Bronx County, Richmond County and New York County). This has been done to match the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 data, which aggregates counts for the five New York City counties to New York County.

• April 20, 2020

  • Johns Hopkins death totals in the US now include confirmed and probable deaths in accordance with CDC guidelines as of April 14. One significant result of this change was an increase of more than 3,700 deaths in the New York City count. This change will likely result in increases for death counts elsewhere as well. The AP does not alter the Johns Hopkins source data, so probable deaths are included in this dataset as well.

• April 29, 2020

  • The AP is now providing timeseries data for counts of COVID-19 cases and deaths. The raw counts are provided here unaltered, along with a population column with Census ACS-5 estimates and calculated daily case and death rates per 100,000 people. Please read the updated caveats section for more information.

• September 1st, 2020

  • Johns Hopkins is now providing counts for the five New York City counties individually.

• February 12, 2021

  • The Ohio Department of Health recently announced that as many as 4,000 COVID-19 deaths may have been underreported through the state’s reporting system, and that the "daily reported death counts will be high for a two to three-day period."
  • Because deaths data will be anomalous for consecutive days, we have chosen to freeze Ohio's rolling average for daily deaths at the last valid measure until Johns Hopkins is able to back-distribute the data. The raw daily death counts, as reported by Johns Hopkins and including the backlogged death data, will still be present in the new_deaths column.

• February 16, 2021

  - Johns Hopkins has reconciled Ohio's historical deaths data with the state.

  Overview

The AP is using data collected by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering as our source for outbreak caseloads and death counts for the United States and globally.

The Hopkins data is available at the county level in the United States. The AP has paired this data with population figures and county rural/urban designations, and has calculated caseload and death rates per 100,000 people. Be aware that caseloads may reflect the availability of tests -- and the ability to turn around test results quickly -- rather than actual disease spread or true infection rates.

This data is from the Hopkins dashboard that is updated regularly throughout the day. Like all organizations dealing with data, Hopkins is constantly refining and cleaning up their feed, so there may be brief moments where data does not appear correctly. At this link, you’ll find the Hopkins daily data reports, and a clean version of their feed.

The AP is updating this dataset hourly at 45 minutes past the hour.

To learn more about AP's data journalism capabilities for publishers, corporations and financial institutions, go here or email kromano@ap.org.

Queries

Use AP's queries to filter the data or to join to other datasets we've made available to help cover the coronavirus pandemic

• Filter cases by state here

• Rank states by their status as current hotspots. Calculates the 7-day rolling average of new cases per capita in each state: https://data.world/associatedpress/johns-hopkins-coronavirus-case-tracker/workspace/query?queryid=481e82a4-1b2f-41c2-9ea1-d91aa4b3b1ac

• Find recent hotspots within your state by running a query to calculate the 7-day rolling average of new cases by capita in each county: https://data.world/associatedpress/johns-hopkins-coronavirus-case-tracker/workspace/query?queryid=b566f1db-3231-40fe-8099-311909b7b687&showTemplatePreview=true

• Join county-level case data to an earlier dataset released by AP on local hospital capacity here. To find out more about the hospital capacity dataset, see the full details.

• Pull the 100 counties with the highest per-capita confirmed cases here

• Rank all the counties by the highest per-capita rate of new cases in the past 7 days here. Be aware that because this ranks per-capita caseloads, very small counties may rise to the very top, so take into account raw caseload figures as well.

Interactive

The AP has designed an interactive map to track COVID-19 cases reported by Johns Hopkins.

@(https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/nRyaf/15/)

Interactive Embed Code

<iframe title="USA counties (2018) choropleth map Mapping COVID-19 cases by county" aria-describedby="" id="datawrapper-chart-nRyaf" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/nRyaf/10/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important;" height="400"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">(function() {'use strict';window.addEventListener('message', function(event) {if (typeof event.data['datawrapper-height'] !== 'undefined') {for (var chartId in event.data['datawrapper-height']) {var iframe = document.getElementById('datawrapper-chart-' + chartId) || document.querySelector("iframe[src*='" + chartId + "']");if (!iframe) {continue;}iframe.style.height = event.data['datawrapper-height'][chartId] + 'px';}}});})();</script>

Caveats

• This data represents the number of cases and deaths reported by each state and has been collected by Johns Hopkins from a number of sources cited on their website.
• In some cases, deaths or cases of people who've crossed state lines -- either to receive treatment or because they became sick and couldn't return home while traveling -- are reported in a state they aren't currently in, because of state reporting rules.
• In some states, there are a number of cases not assigned to a specific county -- for those cases, the county name is "unassigned to a single county"
• This data should be credited to Johns Hopkins University's COVID-19 tracking project. The AP is simply making it available here for ease of use for reporters and members.
• Caseloads may reflect the availability of tests -- and the ability to turn around test results quickly -- rather than actual disease spread or true infection rates.
• Population estimates at the county level are drawn from 2014-18 5-year estimates from the American Community Survey.
• The Urban/Rural classification scheme is from the Center for Disease Control and Preventions's National Center for Health Statistics. It puts each county into one of six categories -- from Large Central Metro to Non-Core -- according to population and other characteristics. More details about the classifications can be found here.

Johns Hopkins timeseries data - Johns Hopkins pulls data regularly to update their dashboard. Once a day, around 8pm EDT, Johns Hopkins adds the counts for all areas they cover to the timeseries file. These counts are snapshots of the latest cumulative counts provided by the source on that day. This can lead to inconsistencies if a source updates their historical data for accuracy, either increasing or decreasing the latest cumulative count. - Johns Hopkins periodically edits their historical timeseries data for accuracy. They provide a file documenting all errors in their timeseries files that they have identified and fixed here

Attribution

This data should be credited to Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 tracking project

Analysis of ‘United States COVID-19 Cases and Deaths by State over Time’ provided by Analyst-2 (analyst-2.ai), based on source dataset retrieved from https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/94385ab5-449a-41ff-8253-15a9f6283539 on 12 February 2022.

--- Dataset description provided by original source is as follows ---

CDC reports aggregate counts of COVID-19 cases and death numbers daily online. Data on the COVID-19 website and CDC’s COVID Data Tracker are based on these most recent numbers reported by states, territories, and other jurisdictions. This data set of “United States COVID-19 Cases and Deaths by State over Time” combines this information. However, data are dependent on jurisdictions’ timely and accurate reporting.

Separately, CDC also regularly reports provisional death certificate data from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) on data.cdc.gov. Details are described on the NCHS website. Reporting the number of deaths by using death certificates ultimately provides more complete information but is a longer process; therefore, these numbers will be less than the death counts on the COVID-19 website.

Accuracy of Data
CDC tracks COVID-19 illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths to track trends, detect outbreaks, and monitor whether public health measures are working. However, counting exact numbers of COVID-19 cases is not possible. COVID-19 can cause mild illness, symptoms might not appear immediately, there are delays in reporting and testing, not everyone who is infected gets tested or seeks medical care, and there are differences in how completely states and territories report their cases.

COVID-19 is one of about 120 diseases or conditions health departments voluntarily report to CDC. State, local, and territorial public health departments verify and report cases to CDC. When there are differences between numbers of cases reported by CDC versus by health departments, data reported by health departments should be considered the most up to date. Health departments may update case data over time when they receive more complete and accurate information. The number of new cases reported each day fluctuates. There is generally less reporting on the weekends and holidays.

CDC reports death data on three other sections of the website: U.S. Cases & Deaths, COVID Data Tracker, and NCHS Provisional Death Counts. The U.S. Cases and Deaths webpages and COVID Data Tracker get their information from the same source (total case counts); however, NCHS Death Counts are based on death certificates that use information reported by physicians, medical examiners, or coroners in the cause-of-death section of each certificate. Data from each of these pages are considered provisional (not complete and pending verification) and are therefore subject to change. Counts from previous weeks are continually revised as more records are received and processed. Because not all jurisdictions report counts daily, counts may increase at different intervals.

Confirmed & Probable Counts
As of April 14, 2020, CDC case counts and death counts include both confirmed and probable cases and deaths. This change was made to reflect an interim COVID-19 position statement issued by the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists on April 5, 2020. The position statement included a case definition and made COVID-19 a nationally notifiable disease. Nationally notifiable disease cases are voluntarily reported to CDC by jurisdictions. Confirmed and probable case definition criteria are described here: https://wwwn.cdc.gov/nndss/conditions/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/case-definition/2020/. Not all jurisdictions report probable cases and deaths to CDC. When not available to CDC, it is noted as N/A. Please note that jurisdiction

--- Original source retains full ownership of the source dataset ---

This dataset contains forecasted weekly numbers of reported COVID-19 incident cases, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths in the United States, previously reported on COVID Data Tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home). These forecasts were generated using mathematical models by CDC partners in the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/doc/ensemble/). A CDC ensemble model was produced every week using the submitted models from that week at the national, and state/territory level.

This dataset is intended to mirror the observed and forecasted data, previously available for download on the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker. Mortality forecasts for both new and cumulative reported COVID-19 deaths were produced at the state and territory level and national level. Forecasts of new reported COVID-19 cases were produced at the county, state/territory, and national level. Please note that this dataset is not complete for every model, date, location or combination thereof. Specifically, county level submissions for COVID-19 incident cases were accepted, but not required, and are missing or incomplete for many models and dates. State and territory-level forecasts are more complete, but not all models submitted forecasts for all locations, dates, and targets (new reported deaths, new reported cases, and cumulative reported deaths). Forecasts for COVID-19 incident cases were discontinued in February 2022. Forecasts for COVID-19 cumulative and incident deaths were discontinued in March 2023.

February 2nd Update

The AP has requested a timeseries dataset reporting daily counts for distributed and administered vaccines in the U.S. from the CDC. In the absence of that dataset, we are storing daily snapshots of the cumulative counts provided by the CDC COVID Data Tracker and compiling a timeseries dataset here. This process has captured cumulative counts going back to January 4th and daily counts of new doses administered and distributed going back to January 5th. The timeseries dataset also includes seven-day rolling average calculations for the daily metrics.

We have identified a few instances of decreasing cumulative counts in this timeseries, which result in single-day negative counts. We are treating these instances as corrections, and include the negative counts in the rolling averages.

We are investigating the cumulative count decreases and will update the timeseries dataset if necessary with additional information from the CDC. When the CDC provides its own timeseries dataset we will make that available here.

Overview

The AP is using data provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to report vaccine doses distributed and administered in the United States.

This data is from the CDC's COVID Data Tracker, which is updated daily. However, keep in mind that healthcare providers can report doses to federal, state, territorial, and local agencies up to 72 hours after doses are administered.

To learn more about AP's data journalism capabilities for publishers, corporations and financial institutions, go here or email kromano@ap.org.

Interactive

The AP has designed an interactive map to track COVID-19 vaccine counts reported by The CDC. @(https://interactives.ap.org/embeds/TUVpf/14/)

Interactive Embed Code

<iframe title="Tracking US COVID vaccinations" aria-label="Map" id="datawrapper-chart-TUVpf" src="https://interactives.ap.org/embeds/TUVpf/14/" scrolling="no" width="100%" style="border:none" height="548"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");t&&(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}}))}();</script>

Caveats

From The CDC: - Numbers reported on CDC’s website are validated through a submission process with each jurisdiction and may differ from numbers posted on other websites. - Differences between reporting jurisdictions and CDC’s website may occur due to the timing of reporting and website updates. - The process used for reporting doses distributed or people vaccinated displayed by other websites may differ.

CDC COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker

Cumulative and Daily Counts of COVID-19 Vaccine Doses in the United States

By Nicky Forster [source]

About this dataset

The dataset contains data points such as the cumulative count of people who have received at least one dose of the vaccine, new doses administered on a specific date, cumulative count of doses distributed in the country, percentage of population that has completed the full vaccine series, cumulative count of Pfizer and Moderna vaccine doses administered in each state, seven-day rolling averages for new doses administered and distributed, among others.

It also provides insights into the vaccination status at both national and state levels. The dataset includes information on the percentage of population that has received at least one dose of the vaccine, percentage of population that has completed the full vaccine series, cumulative counts per 100k population for both distributed and administered doses.

Additionally, it presents data specific to each state, including their abbreviation and name. It outlines details such as cumulative counts per 100k population for both distributed and administered doses in each state. Furthermore, it indicates if there were instances where corrections resulted in single-day negative counts.

The dataset is compiled from daily snapshots obtained from CDC's COVID Data Tracker. Please note that there may be reporting delays by healthcare providers up to 72 hours after administering a dose.

This comprehensive dataset serves various purposes including tracking vaccination progress over time across different locations within the United States. It can be used by researchers, policymakers or anyone interested in analyzing trends related to COVID-19 vaccination efforts at both national and state levels

How to use the dataset

• Familiarize Yourself with the Columns: Take a look at the available columns in this dataset to understand what information is included. These columns provide details such as state abbreviations, state names, dates of data snapshots, cumulative counts of doses distributed and administered, people who have received at least one dose or completed the vaccine series, percentages of population coverage, manufacturer-specific data, and seven-day rolling averages.

• Explore Cumulative Counts: The dataset includes cumulative counts that show the total number of doses distributed or administered over time. You can analyze these numbers to track trends in vaccination progress in different states or regions.

• Analyze Daily Counts: The dataset also provides daily counts of new vaccine doses distributed and administered on specific dates. By examining these numbers, you can gain insights into vaccination rates on a day-to-day basis.

• Study Population Coverage Metrics: Metrics such as pct_population_received_at_least_one_dose and pct_population_series_complete give you an understanding of how much of each state's population has received at least one dose or completed their vaccine series respectively.

• Utilize Manufacturer Data: The columns related to Pfizer and Moderna provide information about the number of doses administered for each manufacturer separately. By analyzing this data, you can compare vaccination rates between different vaccines.

• Consider Rolling Averages: The seven-day rolling average columns allow you to smooth out fluctuations in daily counts by calculating an average over a week's time window. This can help identify long-term trends more accurately.

• Compare States: You can compare vaccination progress between different states by filtering the dataset based on state names or abbreviations. This way, you can observe variations in distribution and administration rates among different regions.

• Visualize the Data: Creating charts and graphs will help you visualize the data more effectively. Plotting trends over time or comparing different metrics for various states can provide powerful visual representations of vaccination progress.

• Stay Informed: Keep in mind that this dataset is continuously updated as new data becomes available. Make sure to check for any updates or refreshed datasets to obtain the most recent information on COVID-19 vaccine distributions and administrations

Research Ideas

• Vaccination Analysis: This dataset can be used to analyze the progress of COVID-19 vaccinations in the United States. By examining the cumulative counts of doses distributed and administered, as well as the number of people who have received at least one dose or completed the vaccine series, researchers and policymakers can assess how effectively vaccines are being rolled out and monitor...

On March 10, 2023, the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center ceased its collecting and reporting of global COVID-19 data. For updated cases, deaths, and vaccine data please visit: World Health Organization (WHO)For more information, visit the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center.COVID-19 Trends MethodologyOur goal is to analyze and present daily updates in the form of recent trends within countries, states, or counties during the COVID-19 global pandemic. The data we are analyzing is taken directly from the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases Dashboard, though we expect to be one day behind the dashboard’s live feeds to allow for quality assurance of the data.DOI: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.125529863/7/2022 - Adjusted the rate of active cases calculation in the U.S. to reflect the rates of serious and severe cases due nearly completely dominant Omicron variant.6/24/2020 - Expanded Case Rates discussion to include fix on 6/23 for calculating active cases.6/22/2020 - Added Executive Summary and Subsequent Outbreaks sectionsRevisions on 6/10/2020 based on updated CDC reporting. This affects the estimate of active cases by revising the average duration of cases with hospital stays downward from 30 days to 25 days. The result shifted 76 U.S. counties out of Epidemic to Spreading trend and no change for national level trends.Methodology update on 6/2/2020: This sets the length of the tail of new cases to 6 to a maximum of 14 days, rather than 21 days as determined by the last 1/3 of cases. This was done to align trends and criteria for them with U.S. CDC guidance. The impact is areas transition into Controlled trend sooner for not bearing the burden of new case 15-21 days earlier.Correction on 6/1/2020Discussion of our assertion of an abundance of caution in assigning trends in rural counties added 5/7/2020. Revisions added on 4/30/2020 are highlighted.Revisions added on 4/23/2020 are highlighted.Executive SummaryCOVID-19 Trends is a methodology for characterizing the current trend for places during the COVID-19 global pandemic. Each day we assign one of five trends: Emergent, Spreading, Epidemic, Controlled, or End Stage to geographic areas to geographic areas based on the number of new cases, the number of active cases, the total population, and an algorithm (described below) that contextualize the most recent fourteen days with the overall COVID-19 case history. Currently we analyze the countries of the world and the U.S. Counties. The purpose is to give policymakers, citizens, and analysts a fact-based data driven sense for the direction each place is currently going. When a place has the initial cases, they are assigned Emergent, and if that place controls the rate of new cases, they can move directly to Controlled, and even to End Stage in a short time. However, if the reporting or measures to curtail spread are not adequate and significant numbers of new cases continue, they are assigned to Spreading, and in cases where the spread is clearly uncontrolled, Epidemic trend.We analyze the data reported by Johns Hopkins University to produce the trends, and we report the rates of cases, spikes of new cases, the number of days since the last reported case, and number of deaths. We also make adjustments to the assignments based on population so rural areas are not assigned trends based solely on case rates, which can be quite high relative to local populations.Two key factors are not consistently known or available and should be taken into consideration with the assigned trend. First is the amount of resources, e.g., hospital beds, physicians, etc.that are currently available in each area. Second is the number of recoveries, which are often not tested or reported. On the latter, we provide a probable number of active cases based on CDC guidance for the typical duration of mild to severe cases.Reasons for undertaking this work in March of 2020:The popular online maps and dashboards show counts of confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries by country or administrative sub-region. Comparing the counts of one country to another can only provide a basis for comparison during the initial stages of the outbreak when counts were low and the number of local outbreaks in each country was low. By late March 2020, countries with small populations were being left out of the mainstream news because it was not easy to recognize they had high per capita rates of cases (Switzerland, Luxembourg, Iceland, etc.). Additionally, comparing countries that have had confirmed COVID-19 cases for high numbers of days to countries where the outbreak occurred recently is also a poor basis for comparison.The graphs of confirmed cases and daily increases in cases were fit into a standard size rectangle, though the Y-axis for one country had a maximum value of 50, and for another country 100,000, which potentially misled people interpreting the slope of the curve. Such misleading circumstances affected comparing large population countries to small population counties or countries with low numbers of cases to China which had a large count of cases in the early part of the outbreak. These challenges for interpreting and comparing these graphs represent work each reader must do based on their experience and ability. Thus, we felt it would be a service to attempt to automate the thought process experts would use when visually analyzing these graphs, particularly the most recent tail of the graph, and provide readers with an a resulting synthesis to characterize the state of the pandemic in that country, state, or county.The lack of reliable data for confirmed recoveries and therefore active cases. Merely subtracting deaths from total cases to arrive at this figure progressively loses accuracy after two weeks. The reason is 81% of cases recover after experiencing mild symptoms in 10 to 14 days. Severe cases are 14% and last 15-30 days (based on average days with symptoms of 11 when admitted to hospital plus 12 days median stay, and plus of one week to include a full range of severely affected people who recover). Critical cases are 5% and last 31-56 days. Sources:U.S. CDC. April 3, 2020 Interim Clinical Guidance for Management of Patients with Confirmed Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). Accessed online. Initial older guidance was also obtained online. Additionally, many people who recover may not be tested, and many who are, may not be tracked due to privacy laws. Thus, the formula used to compute an estimate of active cases is: Active Cases = 100% of new cases in past 14 days + 19% from past 15-25 days + 5% from past 26-49 days - total deaths. On 3/17/2022, the U.S. calculation was adjusted to: Active Cases = 100% of new cases in past 14 days + 6% from past 15-25 days + 3% from past 26-49 days - total deaths. Sources: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e4.htm https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions If a new variant arrives and appears to cause higher rates of serious cases, we will roll back this adjustment. We’ve never been inside a pandemic with the ability to learn of new cases as they are confirmed anywhere in the world. After reviewing epidemiological and pandemic scientific literature, three needs arose. We need to specify which portions of the pandemic lifecycle this map cover. The World Health Organization (WHO) specifies six phases. The source data for this map begins just after the beginning of Phase 5: human to human spread and encompasses Phase 6: pandemic phase. Phase six is only characterized in terms of pre- and post-peak. However, these two phases are after-the-fact analyses and cannot ascertained during the event. Instead, we describe (below) a series of five trends for Phase 6 of the COVID-19 pandemic.Choosing terms to describe the five trends was informed by the scientific literature, particularly the use of epidemic, which signifies uncontrolled spread. The five trends are: Emergent, Spreading, Epidemic, Controlled, and End Stage. Not every locale will experience all five, but all will experience at least three: emergent, controlled, and end stage.This layer presents the current trends for the COVID-19 pandemic by country (or appropriate level). There are five trends:Emergent: Early stages of outbreak. Spreading: Early stages and depending on an administrative area’s capacity, this may represent a manageable rate of spread. Epidemic: Uncontrolled spread. Controlled: Very low levels of new casesEnd Stage: No New cases These trends can be applied at several levels of administration: Local: Ex., City, District or County – a.k.a. Admin level 2State: Ex., State or Province – a.k.a. Admin level 1National: Country – a.k.a. Admin level 0Recommend that at least 100,000 persons be represented by a unit; granted this may not be possible, and then the case rate per 100,000 will become more important.Key Concepts and Basis for Methodology: 10 Total Cases minimum threshold: Empirically, there must be enough cases to constitute an outbreak. Ideally, this would be 5.0 per 100,000, but not every area has a population of 100,000 or more. Ten, or fewer, cases are also relatively less difficult to track and trace to sources. 21 Days of Cases minimum threshold: Empirically based on COVID-19 and would need to be adjusted for any other event. 21 days is also the minimum threshold for analyzing the “tail” of the new cases curve, providing seven cases as the basis for a likely trend (note that 21 days in the tail is preferred). This is the minimum needed to encompass the onset and duration of a normal case (5-7 days plus 10-14 days). Specifically, a median of 5.1 days incubation time, and 11.2 days for 97.5% of cases to incubate. This is also driven by pressure to understand trends and could easily be adjusted to 28 days. Source

Note: After May 3, 2024, this dataset will no longer be updated because hospitals are no longer required to report data on COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or occupancy data to HHS through CDC’s National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN). The related CDC COVID Data Tracker site was revised or retired on May 10, 2023.

Note: May 3,2024: Due to incomplete or missing hospital data received for the April 21,2024 through April 27, 2024 reporting period, the COVID-19 Hospital Admissions Level could not be calculated for CNMI and will be reported as “NA” or “Not Available” in the COVID-19 Hospital Admissions Level data released on May 3, 2024.

This dataset represents COVID-19 hospitalization data and metrics aggregated to county or county-equivalent, for all counties or county-equivalents (including territories) in the United States as of the initial date of reporting for each weekly metric. COVID-19 hospitalization data are reported to CDC’s National Healthcare Safety Network, which monitors national and local trends in healthcare system stress, capacity, and community disease levels for approximately 6,000 hospitals in the United States. Data reported by hospitals to NHSN and included in this dataset represent aggregated counts and include metrics capturing information specific to COVID-19 hospital admissions, and inpatient and ICU bed capacity occupancy.

Reporting information:

• As of December 15, 2022, COVID-19 hospital data are required to be reported to NHSN, which monitors national and local trends in healthcare system stress, capacity, and community disease levels for approximately 6,000 hospitals in the United States. Data reported by hospitals to NHSN represent aggregated counts and include metrics capturing information specific to hospital capacity, occupancy, hospitalizations, and admissions. Prior to December 15, 2022, hospitals reported data directly to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) or via a state submission for collection in the HHS Unified Hospital Data Surveillance System (UHDSS).
• While CDC reviews these data for errors and corrects those found, some reporting errors might still exist within the data. To minimize errors and inconsistencies in data reported, CDC removes outliers before calculating the metrics. CDC and partners work with reporters to correct these errors and update the data in subsequent weeks.
• Many hospital subtypes, including acute care and critical access hospitals, as well as Veterans Administration, Defense Health Agency, and Indian Health Service hospitals, are included in the metric calculations provided in this report. Psychiatric, rehabilitation, and religious non-medical hospital types are excluded from calculations.
• Data are aggregated and displayed for hospitals with the same Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) Certification Number (CCN), which are assigned by CMS to counties based on the CMS Provider of Services files.
• Full details on COVID-19 hospital data reporting guidance can be found here: https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf

Calculation of county-level hospital metrics:

• County-level hospital data are derived using calculations performed at the Health Service Area (HSA) level. An HSA is defined by CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics as a geographic area containing at least one county which is self-contained with respect to the population’s provision of routine hospital care. Every county in the United States is assigned to an HSA, and each HSA must contain at least one hospital. Therefore, use of HSAs in the calculation of local hospital metrics allows for more accurate characterization of the relationship between health care utilization and health status at the local level.
• Data presented at the county-level represent admissions, hospital inpatient and ICU bed capacity and occupancy among hospitals within the selected HSA. Therefore, admissions, capacity, and occupancy are not limited to residents of the selected HSA.
• For all county-level hospital metrics listed below the values are calculated first for the entire HSA, and then the HSA-level value is then applied to each county within the HSA.
• For all county-level hospital metrics listed below the values are calculated first for the entire HSA, and then the HSA-level value is then applied to each county within the HSA.

Metric details:

• Time period: data for the previous MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) will update weekly on Mondays as soon as they are reviewed and verified, usually before 8 pm ET. Updates will occur the following day when reporting coincides with a federal holiday. Note: Weekly updates might be delayed due to delays in reporting. All data are provisional. Because these provisional counts are subject to change, including updates to data reported previously, adjustments can occur. Data may be updated since original publication due to delays in reporting (to account for data received after a given Thursday publication) or data quality corrections.
• New hospital admissions (count): Total number of admissions of patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in the previous week (including both adult and pediatric admissions) in the entire jurisdiction
• New Hospital Admissions Rate Value (Admissions per 100k): Total number of new admissions of patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in the past week (including both adult and pediatric admissions) for the entire jurisdiction divided by 2019 intercensal population estimate for that jurisdiction multiplied by 100,000. (Note: This metric is used to determine each county’s COVID-19 Hospital Admissions Level for a given week).
• New COVID-19 Hospital Admissions Rate Level: qualitative value of new COVID-19 hospital admissions rate level [Low, Medium, High, Insufficient Data]
• New hospital admissions percent change from prior week: Percent change in the current weekly total new admissions of patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 per 100,000 population compared with the prior week.
• New hospital admissions percent change from prior week level: Qualitative value of percent change in hospital admissions rate from prior week [Substantial decrease, Moderate decrease, Stable, Moderate increase, Substantial increase, Insufficient data]
• COVID-19 Inpatient Bed Occupancy Value: Percentage of all staffed inpatient beds occupied by patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 (including both adult and pediatric patients) within the in the entire jurisdiction is calculated as an average of valid daily values within the past week (e.g., if only three valid values, the average of those three is taken). Averages are separately calculated for the daily numerators (patients hospitalized with confirmed COVID-19) and denominators (staffed inpatient beds). The average percentage can then be taken as the ratio of these two values for the entire jurisdiction.
• COVID-19 Inpatient Bed Occupancy Level: Qualitative value of inpatient beds occupied by COVID-19 patients level [Minimal, Low, Moderate, Substantial, High, Insufficient data]
• COVID-19 Inpatient Bed Occupancy percent change from prior week: The absolute change in the percent of staffed inpatient beds occupied by patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 represents the week-over-week absolute difference between the average occupancy of patients with confirmed COVID-19 in staffed inpatient beds in the past week, compared with the prior week, in the entire jurisdiction.
• COVID-19 ICU Bed Occupancy Value: Percentage of all staffed inpatient beds occupied by adult patients with confirmed COVID-19 within the entire jurisdiction is calculated as an average of valid daily values within the past week (e.g., if only three valid values, the average of those three is taken). Averages are separately calculated for the daily numerators (adult patients hospitalized with confirmed COVID-19) and denominators (staffed adult ICU beds). The average percentage can then be taken as the ratio of these two values for the entire jurisdiction.
• COVID-19 ICU Bed Occupancy Level: Qualitative value of ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patients level [Minimal, Low, Moderate, Substantial, High, Insufficient data]
• COVID-19 ICU Bed Occupancy percent change from prior week: The absolute change in the percent of staffed ICU beds occupied by patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 represents the week-over-week absolute difference between the average occupancy of patients with confirmed COVID-19 in staffed adult ICU beds for the past week, compared with the prior week, in the in the entire jurisdiction.
• For all metrics, if there are no data in the specified locality for a given week, the metric value is displayed as “insufficient data”.

Notes: June 15, 2023: Due to incomplete or missing hospital data received for the June 4, 2023, through June 10, 2023, reporting period, the COVID-19 Hospital Admissions Level could not be calculated for CNMI and AS and will be reported as “NA” or “Not Available” in the COVID-19 Hospital Admissions Level data released on June 15, 2023.

July 10, 2023: Due to incomplete or missing hospital data received for the June 25, 2023, through July 1, 2023, reporting period, the COVID-19 Hospital Admissions Level could not be calculated for CNMI and AS and will be reported as “NA” or “Not Available” in the COVID-19 Hospital Admissions Level data released on July 10, 2023.

July 17, 2023: Due to incomplete or missing hospital data received for the July 2, 2023, through July 8, 2023, reporting

COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths by state as of July 28, 2020 from https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html and https://usafacts.org/visualizations/coronavirus-covid-19-spread-map The state numbers listed by the CDC are aggregated from the USAFact county data.The CDC reports healthcare personnel cases and infections (120,467 and 587 as of August 1, 2020; accessed August 2, 2020) but does not disaggregate the numbers by state.Healthcare worker deaths by state as of July 28, 2020 pulled from https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/927976#vp_1

Between the beginning of January 2020 and June 14, 2023, of the 1,134,641 deaths caused by COVID-19 in the United States, around 307,169 had occurred among those aged 85 years and older. This statistic shows the number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths in the U.S. from January 2020 to June 2023, by age.

Announcement Beginning October 20, 2022, CDC will report and publish aggregate case and death data from jurisdictional and state partners on a weekly basis rather than daily. As a result, community transmission levels data reported on data.cdc.gov will be updated weekly on Thursdays, typically by 8 PM ET, instead of daily. This public use dataset has 7 data elements reflecting historical data for community transmission levels for all available counties. This dataset contains historical data for the county level of community transmission and includes updated data submitted by states and jurisdictions. Each day, the dataset is appended to contain the most recent day's data. This dataset includes data from January 1, 2021. Transmission level is set to low, moderate, substantial, or high using the calculation rules below. Currently, CDC provides the public with two versions of COVID-19 county-level community transmission level data: this dataset with the levels for each county from January 1, 2021 (Historical Changes dataset) and a dataset with the levels as originally posted (Originally Posted dataset), updated daily with the most recent day’s data. Methods for calculating county level of community transmission indicator The County Level of Community Transmission indicator uses two metrics: (1) total new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 persons in the last 7 days and (2) percentage of positive SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic nucleic acid amplification tests (NAAT) in the last 7 days. For each of these metrics, CDC classifies transmission values as low, moderate, substantial, or high (below and here). If the values for each of these two metrics differ (e.g., one indicates moderate and the other low), then the higher of the two should be used for decision-making. CDC core metrics of and thresholds for community transmission levels of SARS-CoV-2 Total New Case Rate Metric: "New cases per 100,000 persons in the past 7 days" is calculated by adding the number of new cases in the county (or other administrative level) in the last 7 days divided by the population in the county (or other administrative level) and multiplying by 100,000. "New cases per 100,000 persons in the past 7 days" is considered to have transmission level of Low (0-9.99); Moderate (10.00-49.99); Substantial (50.00-99.99); and High (greater than or equal to 100.00). Test Percent Positivity Metric: "Percentage of positive NAAT in the past 7 days" is calculated by dividing the number of positive tests in the county (or other administrative level) during the last 7 days by the total number of tests resulted over the last 7 days. "Percentage of positive NAAT in the past 7 days" is considered to have transmission level of Low (less than 5.00); Moderate (5.00-7.99); Substantial (8.00-9.99); and High (greater than or equal to 10.00). If the two metrics suggest different transmission levels, the higher level is selected. If one metric is missing, the other metric is used for the indicator. Transmission categories include: Low Transmission Threshold: Counties with fewer than 10 total cases per 100,000 population in the past 7 days, and a NAAT percent test positivity in the past 7 days below 5%; Moderate Transmission Threshold: Counties with 10-49 total cases per 100,000 population in the past 7 days or a NAAT test percent positivity in the past 7 days of 5.0-7.99%; Substantial Transmission Threshold: Counties with 50-99 total cases per 100,000 population in the past 7 days or a NAAT test percent positivity in the past 7 days of 8.0-9.99%; High Transmission Threshold: Counties with 100

COVID-19 Trends MethodologyOur goal is to analyze and present daily updates in the form of recent trends within countries, states, or counties during the COVID-19 global pandemic. The data we are analyzing is taken directly from the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases Dashboard, though we expect to be one day behind the dashboard’s live feeds to allow for quality assurance of the data.Revisions added on 4/23/2020 are highlighted.Revisions added on 4/30/2020 are highlighted.Discussion of our assertion of an abundance of caution in assigning trends in rural counties added 5/7/2020. Correction on 6/1/2020Methodology update on 6/2/2020: This sets the length of the tail of new cases to 6 to a maximum of 14 days, rather than 21 days as determined by the last 1/3 of cases. This was done to align trends and criteria for them with U.S. CDC guidance. The impact is areas transition into Controlled trend sooner for not bearing the burden of new case 15-21 days earlier.Reasons for undertaking this work:The popular online maps and dashboards show counts of confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries by country or administrative sub-region. Comparing the counts of one country to another can only provide a basis for comparison during the initial stages of the outbreak when counts were low and the number of local outbreaks in each country was low. By late March 2020, countries with small populations were being left out of the mainstream news because it was not easy to recognize they had high per capita rates of cases (Switzerland, Luxembourg, Iceland, etc.). Additionally, comparing countries that have had confirmed COVID-19 cases for high numbers of days to countries where the outbreak occurred recently is also a poor basis for comparison.The graphs of confirmed cases and daily increases in cases were fit into a standard size rectangle, though the Y-axis for one country had a maximum value of 50, and for another country 100,000, which potentially misled people interpreting the slope of the curve. Such misleading circumstances affected comparing large population countries to small population counties or countries with low numbers of cases to China which had a large count of cases in the early part of the outbreak. These challenges for interpreting and comparing these graphs represent work each reader must do based on their experience and ability. Thus, we felt it would be a service to attempt to automate the thought process experts would use when visually analyzing these graphs, particularly the most recent tail of the graph, and provide readers with an a resulting synthesis to characterize the state of the pandemic in that country, state, or county.The lack of reliable data for confirmed recoveries and therefore active cases. Merely subtracting deaths from total cases to arrive at this figure progressively loses accuracy after two weeks. The reason is 81% of cases recover after experiencing mild symptoms in 10 to 14 days. Severe cases are 14% and last 15-30 days (based on average days with symptoms of 11 when admitted to hospital plus 12 days median stay, and plus of one week to include a full range of severely affected people who recover). Critical cases are 5% and last 31-56 days. Sources:U.S. CDC. April 3, 2020 Interim Clinical Guidance for Management of Patients with Confirmed Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). Accessed online. Initial older guidance was also obtained online. Additionally, many people who recover may not be tested, and many who are, may not be tracked due to privacy laws. Thus, the formula used to compute an estimate of active cases is: Active Cases = 100% of new cases in past 14 days + 19% from past 15-30 days + 5% from past 31-56 days - total deaths.We’ve never been inside a pandemic with the ability to learn of new cases as they are confirmed anywhere in the world. After reviewing epidemiological and pandemic scientific literature, three needs arose. We need to specify which portions of the pandemic lifecycle this map cover. The World Health Organization (WHO) specifies six phases. The source data for this map begins just after the beginning of Phase 5: human to human spread and encompasses Phase 6: pandemic phase. Phase six is only characterized in terms of pre- and post-peak. However, these two phases are after-the-fact analyses and cannot ascertained during the event. Instead, we describe (below) a series of five trends for Phase 6 of the COVID-19 pandemic.Choosing terms to describe the five trends was informed by the scientific literature, particularly the use of epidemic, which signifies uncontrolled spread. The five trends are: Emergent, Spreading, Epidemic, Controlled, and End Stage. Not every locale will experience all five, but all will experience at least three: emergent, controlled, and end stage.This layer presents the current trends for the COVID-19 pandemic by country (or appropriate level). There are five trends:Emergent: Early stages of outbreak. Spreading: Early stages and depending on an administrative area’s capacity, this may represent a manageable rate of spread. Epidemic: Uncontrolled spread. Controlled: Very low levels of new casesEnd Stage: No New cases These trends can be applied at several levels of administration: Local: Ex., City, District or County – a.k.a. Admin level 2State: Ex., State or Province – a.k.a. Admin level 1National: Country – a.k.a. Admin level 0Recommend that at least 100,000 persons be represented by a unit; granted this may not be possible, and then the case rate per 100,000 will become more important.Key Concepts and Basis for Methodology: 10 Total Cases minimum threshold: Empirically, there must be enough cases to constitute an outbreak. Ideally, this would be 5.0 per 100,000, but not every area has a population of 100,000 or more. Ten, or fewer, cases are also relatively less difficult to track and trace to sources. 21 Days of Cases minimum threshold: Empirically based on COVID-19 and would need to be adjusted for any other event. 21 days is also the minimum threshold for analyzing the “tail” of the new cases curve, providing seven cases as the basis for a likely trend (note that 21 days in the tail is preferred). This is the minimum needed to encompass the onset and duration of a normal case (5-7 days plus 10-14 days). Specifically, a median of 5.1 days incubation time, and 11.2 days for 97.5% of cases to incubate. This is also driven by pressure to understand trends and could easily be adjusted to 28 days. Source used as basis:Stephen A. Lauer, MS, PhD *; Kyra H. Grantz, BA *; Qifang Bi, MHS; Forrest K. Jones, MPH; Qulu Zheng, MHS; Hannah R. Meredith, PhD; Andrew S. Azman, PhD; Nicholas G. Reich, PhD; Justin Lessler, PhD. 2020. The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application. Annals of Internal Medicine DOI: 10.7326/M20-0504.New Cases per Day (NCD) = Measures the daily spread of COVID-19. This is the basis for all rates. Back-casting revisions: In the Johns Hopkins’ data, the structure is to provide the cumulative number of cases per day, which presumes an ever-increasing sequence of numbers, e.g., 0,0,1,1,2,5,7,7,7, etc. However, revisions do occur and would look like, 0,0,1,1,2,5,7,7,6. To accommodate this, we revised the lists to eliminate decreases, which make this list look like, 0,0,1,1,2,5,6,6,6.Reporting Interval: In the early weeks, Johns Hopkins' data provided reporting every day regardless of change. In late April, this changed allowing for days to be skipped if no new data was available. The day was still included, but the value of total cases was set to Null. The processing therefore was updated to include tracking of the spacing between intervals with valid values.100 News Cases in a day as a spike threshold: Empirically, this is based on COVID-19’s rate of spread, or r0 of ~2.5, which indicates each case will infect between two and three other people. There is a point at which each administrative area’s capacity will not have the resources to trace and account for all contacts of each patient. Thus, this is an indicator of uncontrolled or epidemic trend. Spiking activity in combination with the rate of new cases is the basis for determining whether an area has a spreading or epidemic trend (see below). Source used as basis:World Health Organization (WHO). 16-24 Feb 2020. Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Obtained online.Mean of Recent Tail of NCD = Empirical, and a COVID-19-specific basis for establishing a recent trend. The recent mean of NCD is taken from the most recent fourteen days. A minimum of 21 days of cases is required for analysis but cannot be considered reliable. Thus, a preference of 42 days of cases ensures much higher reliability. This analysis is not explanatory and thus, merely represents a likely trend. The tail is analyzed for the following:Most recent 2 days: In terms of likelihood, this does not mean much, but can indicate a reason for hope and a basis to share positive change that is not yet a trend. There are two worthwhile indicators:Last 2 days count of new cases is less than any in either the past five or 14 days. Past 2 days has only one or fewer new cases – this is an extremely positive outcome if the rate of testing has continued at the same rate as the previous 5 days or 14 days. Most recent 5 days: In terms of likelihood, this is more meaningful, as it does represent at short-term trend. There are five worthwhile indicators:Past five days is greater than past 2 days and past 14 days indicates the potential of the past 2 days being an aberration. Past five days is greater than past 14 days and less than past 2 days indicates slight positive trend, but likely still within peak trend time frame.Past five days is less than the past 14 days. This means a downward trend. This would be an

Effective September 27, 2023, this dataset will no longer be updated. Similar data are accessible from wonder.cdc.gov.

Deaths involving COVID-19, pneumonia, and influenza reported to NCHS by sex, age group, and jurisdiction of occurrence.

Context

Estimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to COVID-19, beyond the number of deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19.

Content

Estimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to COVID-19, beyond the number of deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19. Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between observed numbers of deaths and expected numbers. This visualization provides weekly data on excess deaths by the jurisdiction of occurrence. Counts of deaths in more recent weeks are compared with historical trends to determine whether the number of deaths is significantly higher than expected.

Estimates of excess deaths can be calculated in a variety of ways and will vary depending on the methodology and assumptions about how many deaths are expected to occur. Estimates of excess deaths presented in this webpage were calculated using Farrington surveillance algorithms (1). For each jurisdiction, a model is used to generate a set of expected counts, and the upper bound of the 95% Confidence Intervals (95% CI) of these expected counts is used as a threshold to estimate excess deaths. Observed counts are compared to these upper bound estimates to determine whether a significant increase in deaths has occurred. Provisional counts are weighted to account for potential underreporting in the most recent weeks. However, data for the most recent week(s) are still likely to be incomplete. Only about 60% of deaths are reported within 10 days of the date of death, and there is considerable variation by jurisdiction. More detail about the methods, weighting, data, and limitations can be found in the Technical Notes.

• Source: data.cdc.gov
• Publisher: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, cdc.gov
• Homepage URL: https://data.cdc.gov/d/xkkf-xrst
• License: https://www.usa.gov/government-works
• Contact Email: cdcinfo@cdc.gov
• Public Access Level: Public

Additional information

Dashboard: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

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Acknowledgements

Thanks to:
- data.cdc.gov - healthdata.gov

References

• Noufaily A, Enki DG, Farrington P, Garthwaite P, Andrews N, Charlett A. An Improved Algorithm for Outbreak Detection in Multiple Surveillance Systems. Statistics in Medicine 2012;32(7):1206-1222.
• Salmon M, Schumacher D, Hohle M. Monitoring Count Time Series in R: Aberration Detection in Public Health Surveillance. Journal of Statistical Software 2016;70(10):1-35.
• Rue H, Martino S, Chopin N. Approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models using integrated nested Laplace approximations (with discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B 2009;71(2):319-392.
• Spencer MR, Ahmad F. Timeliness of death certificate data for mortality surveillance and provisional estimates. National Center for Health Statistics. 2016. http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/report001.pdf.pdf icon

This file contains COVID-19 death counts and rates by month and year of death, jurisdiction of residence (U.S., HHS Region) and demographic characteristics (sex, age, race and Hispanic origin, and age/race and Hispanic origin). United States death counts and rates include the 50 states, plus the District of Columbia.

Deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19, coded to ICD–10 code U07.1. Number of deaths reported in this file are the total number of COVID-19 deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and may not represent all deaths that occurred in that period. Counts of deaths occurring before or after the reporting period are not included in the file.

Data during recent periods are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death.

Death counts should not be compared across jurisdictions. Data timeliness varies by state. Some states report deaths on a daily basis, while other states report deaths weekly or monthly.

The ten (10) United States Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) regions include the following jurisdictions. Region 1: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont; Region 2: New Jersey, New York; Region 3: Delaware, District of Columbia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia; Region 4: Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee; Region 5: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Wisconsin; Region 6: Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas; Region 7: Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska; Region 8: Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Wyoming; Region 9: Arizona, California, Hawaii, Nevada; Region 10: Alaska, Idaho, Oregon, Washington.

Rates were calculated using the population estimates for 2021, which are estimated as of July 1, 2021 based on the Blended Base produced by the US Census Bureau in lieu of the April 1, 2020 decennial population count. The Blended Base consists of the blend of Vintage 2020 postcensal population estimates, 2020 Demographic Analysis Estimates, and 2020 Census PL 94-171 Redistricting File (see https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology/2020-2021/methods-statement-v2021.pdf).

Rate are based on deaths occurring in the specified week and are age-adjusted to the 2000 standard population using the direct method (see https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr70/nvsr70-08-508.pdf). These rates differ from annual age-adjusted rates, typically presented in NCHS publications based on a full year of data and annualized weekly age-adjusted rates which have been adjusted to allow comparison with annual rates. Annualization rates presents deaths per year per 100,000 population that would be expected in a year if the observed period specific (weekly) rate prevailed for a full year.

Sub-national death counts between 1-9 are suppressed in accordance with NCHS data confidentiality standards. Rates based on death counts less than 20 are suppressed in accordance with NCHS standards of reliability as specified in NCHS Data Presentation Standards for Proportions (available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/series/sr_02/sr02_175.pdf.).

Note: After May 3, 2024, this dataset will no longer be updated because hospitals are no longer required to report data on COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or occupancy data to HHS through CDC’s National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN). The related CDC COVID Data Tracker site was revised or retired on May 10, 2023.

This dataset represents weekly COVID-19 hospitalization data and metrics aggregated to national, state/territory, and regional levels. COVID-19 hospitalization data are reported to CDC’s National Healthcare Safety Network, which monitors national and local trends in healthcare system stress, capacity, and community disease levels for approximately 6,000 hospitals in the United States. Data reported by hospitals to NHSN and included in this dataset represent aggregated counts and include metrics capturing information specific to COVID-19 hospital admissions, and inpatient and ICU bed capacity occupancy.

Reporting information:

• As of December 15, 2022, COVID-19 hospital data are required to be reported to NHSN, which monitors national and local trends in healthcare system stress, capacity, and community disease levels for approximately 6,000 hospitals in the United States. Data reported by hospitals to NHSN represent aggregated counts and include metrics capturing information specific to hospital capacity, occupancy, hospitalizations, and admissions. Prior to December 15, 2022, hospitals reported data directly to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) or via a state submission for collection in the HHS Unified Hospital Data Surveillance System (UHDSS).
• While CDC reviews these data for errors and corrects those found, some reporting errors might still exist within the data. To minimize errors and inconsistencies in data reported, CDC removes outliers before calculating the metrics. CDC and partners work with reporters to correct these errors and update the data in subsequent weeks.
• Many hospital subtypes, including acute care and critical access hospitals, as well as Veterans Administration, Defense Health Agency, and Indian Health Service hospitals, are included in the metric calculations provided in this report. Psychiatric, rehabilitation, and religious non-medical hospital types are excluded from calculations.
• Data are aggregated and displayed for hospitals with the same Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) Certification Number (CCN), which are assigned by CMS to counties based on the CMS Provider of Services files.
• Full details on COVID-19 hospital data reporting guidance can be found here: https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf

Metric details:

• Time Period: timeseries data will update weekly on Mondays as soon as they are reviewed and verified, usually before 8 pm ET. Updates will occur the following day when reporting coincides with a federal holiday. Note: Weekly updates might be delayed due to delays in reporting. All data are provisional. Because these provisional counts are subject to change, including updates to data reported previously, adjustments can occur. Data may be updated since original publication due to delays in reporting (to account for data received after a given Thursday publication) or data quality corrections.
• New COVID-19 Hospital Admissions (count): Number of new admissions of patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in the previous week (including both adult and pediatric admissions) in the entire jurisdiction.
• New COVID-19 Hospital Admissions (7-Day Average): 7-day average of new admissions of patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in the previous week (including both adult and pediatric admissions) in the entire jurisdiction.
• Cumulative COVID-19 Hospital Admissions: Cumulative total number of admissions of patients with labo

The website allow to visualize on a map and download the number of confirmed or probable cases and deaths in the last 7 days and since January 21, 2020, by count or by rates for cases (cases/100,000 people) and deaths (deaths/100,000). It also contains information about the number of test, percentage of positivity and level of community transmission. The data are reported by U.S. states, U.S. territories, New York City, and the District of Columbia from the previous day.

United States CDC: COVID-19: No. of Specimens Tested: CDC Labs data was reported at 0.000 Unit in 11 May 2020. This records a decrease from the previous number of 10.000 Unit for 10 May 2020. United States CDC: COVID-19: No. of Specimens Tested: CDC Labs data is updated daily, averaging 33.000 Unit from Jan 2020 (Median) to 11 May 2020, with 115 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 310.000 Unit in 01 Feb 2020 and a record low of 0.000 Unit in 11 May 2020. United States CDC: COVID-19: No. of Specimens Tested: CDC Labs data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under High Frequency Database’s Disease Outbreaks – Table US.D001: Center for Disease Control and Prevention: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-2019). As of March 12, the dates associated with the specimens tested by CDC Labs have been updated to reflect the date the specimen was received by CDC, instead of when they were collected from the patient. Use of the specimen received date better reflects when specimens became available for testing by the CDC Labs. Non-respiratory specimens were excluded. For CDC labs, the date represents the date specimen was received at CDC. Results reported as of 4:00 pm ET on March 30 were included. All data are preliminary and may change as more reports are received. As of 14 March 2020, public health laboratories using the CDC assay are no longer required by FDA to submit samples to CDC for confirmation. CDC is maintaining surge capacity while focusing on other support to state public health and on improving options for diagnostics for use in the public health sector. Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when specimens are accessioned, testing is performed, and results are reported. Range extended from 4 days to 7 days on March 26.