The Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) online database on CDC WONDER provides counts and percentages of adverse event case reports after vaccination, received since January 1990 through last month. Data are available by symptom, vaccine product, manufacturer, onset interval, outcome category, year and month vaccinated, year and month reported, age, sex and state / territory. The Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System is a cooperative program for vaccine safety of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). VAERS is a post-marketing safety surveillance program, collecting information about adverse events (possible side effects) that occur after the administration of US licensed vaccines. Data are from the US Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS), Public Health Service (PHS), Food and Drug Administration (FDA)/ Centers for Disease Control (CDC), Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS).
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This case surveillance public use dataset has 19 elements for all COVID-19 cases shared with CDC and includes demographics, geography (county and state of residence), any exposure history, disease severity indicators and outcomes, and presence of any underlying medical conditions and risk behaviors.
Currently, CDC provides the public with three versions of COVID-19 case surveillance line-listed data: this 19 data element dataset with geography, a 12 data element public use dataset, and a 32 data element restricted access dataset.
The following apply to the public use datasets and the restricted access dataset: - Data elements can be found on the COVID-19 case report form located at www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/pui-form.pdf. - Data are considered provisional by CDC and are subject to change until the data are reconciled and verified with the state and territorial data providers. - Some data are suppressed to protect individual privacy. - Datasets will include all cases with the earliest date available in each record (date received by CDC or date related to illness/specimen collection) at least 14 days prior to the creation of the previously updated datasets. This 14-day lag allows case reporting to be stabilized and ensure that time-dependent outcome data are accurately captured. - Datasets are updated monthly. - Datasets are created using CDC’s Policy on Public Health Research and Nonresearch Data Management and Access and include protections designed to protect individual privacy. - For more information about data collection and reporting, please see wwwn.cdc.gov/nndss/data-collection.html. - For more information about the COVID-19 case surveillance data, please see www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/faq-surveillance.html.
Overview
The COVID-19 case surveillance database includes patient-level data reported by U.S. states and autonomous reporting entities, including New York City and the District of Columbia (D.C.), as well as U.S. territories and affiliates. On April 5, 2020, COVID-19 was added to the Nationally Notifiable Condition List and classified as "immediately notifiable, urgent (within 24 hours)" by a Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists (CSTE) Interim Position Statement (Interim-20-ID-01). CSTE updated the position statement on August 5, 2020 to clarify the interpretation of antigen detection tests and serologic test results within the case classification (Interim-20-ID-02). The statement also recommended that all states and territories enact laws to make COVID-19 reportable in their jurisdiction, and that jurisdictions conducting surveillance should submit case notifications to CDC. COVID-19 case surveillance data collected by jurisdictions are shared voluntarily with CDC. For more information, visit: wwwn.cdc.gov/nndss/conditions/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/case-definition/2020/08/05/.
COVID-19 Case Reports
COVID-19 case reports are routinely submitted to CDC by pu
Note: Reporting of new COVID-19 Case Surveillance data will be discontinued July 1, 2024, to align with the process of removing SARS-CoV-2 infections (COVID-19 cases) from the list of nationally notifiable diseases. Although these data will continue to be publicly available, the dataset will no longer be updated.
Authorizations to collect certain public health data expired at the end of the U.S. public health emergency declaration on May 11, 2023. The following jurisdictions discontinued COVID-19 case notifications to CDC: Iowa (11/8/21), Kansas (5/12/23), Kentucky (1/1/24), Louisiana (10/31/23), New Hampshire (5/23/23), and Oklahoma (5/2/23). Please note that these jurisdictions will not routinely send new case data after the dates indicated. As of 7/13/23, case notifications from Oregon will only include pediatric cases resulting in death.
This case surveillance public use dataset has 12 elements for all COVID-19 cases shared with CDC and includes demographics, any exposure history, disease severity indicators and outcomes, presence of any underlying medical conditions and risk behaviors, and no geographic data.
The COVID-19 case surveillance database includes individual-level data reported to U.S. states and aut
The Sexually Transmitted Disease (STD) Morbidity online databases on CDC WONDER contain case reports reported from the 50 United States and D.C., Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands and Guam. The online databases report the number of cases and disease incidence rates by year, state, disease, age, sex of patient, type of STD, and area of report, since 1984. Data are updated annually. Data are produced by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Public Health Service, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for HIV/AIDS, viral Hepatitis, STD and TB Prevention (NCHHSTP).
NNDSS - In this Table, provisional cases* of notifiable diseases are displayed for United States, U.S. territories, and Non-U.S. residents. Notes: • These are weekly cases of selected infectious national notifiable diseases, from the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS). NNDSS data reported by the 50 states, New York City, the District of Columbia, and the U.S. territories are collated and published weekly as numbered tables available at https://www.cdc.gov/nndss/infectious-disease/index.html. Cases reported by state health departments to CDC for weekly publication are subject to ongoing revision of information and delayed reporting. Therefore, numbers listed in later weeks may reflect changes made to these counts as additional information becomes available. Case counts in the tables are presented as published each week. See also Guide to Interpreting Provisional and Finalized NNDSS Data. • Notices, errata, and other notes are available in the Notice To Data Users page https://www.cdc.gov/nndss/infectious-disease/notice-to-data-users.html. • The list of national notifiable infectious diseases and conditions and their national surveillance case definitions are available at https://ndc.services.cdc.gov/. This list incorporates the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists (CSTE) position statements approved by CSTE for national surveillance. Footnotes: *Case counts for reporting years 2024 and 2025 are provisional and subject to change. Cases are assigned to the reporting jurisdiction submitting the case to NNDSS, if the case's country of usual residence is the U.S., a U.S. territory, unknown, or null (i.e. country not reported); otherwise, the case is assigned to the 'Non-U.S. Residents' category. Country of usual residence is currently not reported by all jurisdictions or for all conditions. For further information on interpretation of these data, see https://www.cdc.gov/nndss/docs/Readers-Guide-WONDER-Tables-20210421-508.pdf. †Previous 52 week maximum and cumulative YTD are determined from periods of time when the condition was reportable in the jurisdiction (i.e., may be less than 52 weeks of data or incomplete YTD data). • Please refer to the Stacks publication for weekly updates to the footnote for influenza-associated pediatric mortality. U: Unavailable — The reporting jurisdiction was unable to send the data to CDC or CDC was unable to process the data. -: No reported cases — The reporting jurisdiction did not submit any cases to CDC. N: Not reportable — The disease or condition was not reportable by law, statute, or regulation in the reporting jurisdiction. NN: Not nationally notifiable — This condition was not designated as being nationally notifiable. NP: Nationally notifiable but not published. NC: Not calculated — There is insufficient data available to support the calculation of this statistic. Cum: Cumulative year-to-date counts. Max: Maximum — Maximum case count during the previous 52 weeks.
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After over two years of public reporting, the State Profile Report will no longer be produced and distributed after February 2023. The final release was on February 23, 2023. We want to thank everyone who contributed to the design, production, and review of this report and we hope that it provided insight into the data trends throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Data about COVID-19 will continue to be updated at CDC’s COVID Data Tracker.
The State Profile Report (SPR) is generated by the Data Strategy and Execution Workgroup in the Joint Coordination Cell, in collaboration with the White House. It is managed by an interagency team with representatives from multiple agencies and offices (including the United States Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the HHS Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, and the Indian Health Service). The SPR provides easily interpretable information on key indicators for each state, down to the county level.
It is a weekly snapshot in time that:
WONDER online databases include county-level Compressed Mortality (death certificates) since 1979; county-level Multiple Cause of Death (death certificates) since 1999; county-level Natality (birth certificates) since 1995; county-level Linked Birth / Death records (linked birth-death certificates) since 1995; state & large metro-level United States Cancer Statistics mortality (death certificates) since 1999; state & large metro-level United States Cancer Statistics incidence (cancer registry cases) since 1999; state and metro-level Online Tuberculosis Information System (TB case reports) since 1993; state-level Sexually Transmitted Disease Morbidity (case reports) since 1984; state-level Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting system (adverse reaction case reports) since 1990; county-level population estimates since 1970. The WONDER web server also hosts the Data2010 system with state-level data for compliance with Healthy People 2010 goals since 1998; the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System weekly provisional case reports since 1996; the 122 Cities Mortality Reporting System weekly death reports since 1996; the Prevention Guidelines database (book in electronic format) published 1998; the Scientific Data Archives (public use data sets and documentation); and links to other online data sources on the "Topics" page.
Note: The cumulative case count for some counties (with small population) is higher than expected due to the inclusion of non-permanent residents in COVID-19 case counts.
Reporting of Aggregate Case and Death Count data was discontinued on May 11, 2023, with the expiration of the COVID-19 public health emergency declaration. Although these data will continue to be publicly available, this dataset will no longer be updated.
Aggregate Data Collection Process Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, data were reported through a robust process with the following steps:
This process was collaborative, with CDC and jurisdictions working together to ensure the accuracy of COVID-19 case and death numbers. County counts provided the most up-to-date numbers on cases and deaths by report date. Throughout data collection, CDC retrospectively updated counts to correct known data quality issues. CDC also worked with jurisdictions after the end of the public health emergency declaration to finalize county data.
Important note: The counts reflected during a given time period in this dataset may not match the counts reflected for the same time period in the daily archived dataset noted above. Discrepancies may exist due to differences between county and state COVID-19 case surveillance and reconciliation efforts.
The surveillance case definition for COVID-19, a nationally notifiable disease, was first described in a position statement from the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists, which was later revised. However, there is some variation in how jurisdictions implement these case classifications. More information on how CDC collects COVID-19 case surveillance data can be found at FAQ: COVID-19 Data and Surveillance.
Confirmed and Probable Counts In this dataset, counts by jurisdiction are not displayed by confirmed or probable status. Instead, counts of confirmed and probable cases and deaths are included in the Total Cases and Total Deaths columns, when available. Not all jurisdictions report
The Online Tuberculosis Information System (OTIS) on CDC WONDER contains information on verified tuberculosis (TB) cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) by state health departments, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico since 1993. These data were extracted from the CDC national TB surveillance system. OTIS reports case counts, incidence rates, population counts, percentage of cases that completed therapy within 1 year of diagnosis, and percentage of cases tested for drug susceptibility. Data for 22 variables are included in the data set, including: age groups, race / ethnicity, sex, vital status, year reported, state, metropolitan area, several patient risk factors, directly observed therapy, disease verification criteria and multi-drug resistant TB. Each year these data are updated with an additional year of cases plus revisions to cases reported in previous years. OTIS is produced by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Public Health Service, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for HIV/AIDS, viral Hepatitis, STD and TB Prevention (NCHHSTP).
Reporting of new Aggregate Case and Death Count data was discontinued May 11, 2023, with the expiration of the COVID-19 public health emergency declaration. This dataset will receive a final update on June 1, 2023, to reconcile historical data through May 10, 2023, and will remain publicly available.
Aggregate Data Collection Process Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, data have been gathered through a robust process with the following steps:
Methodology Changes Several differences exist between the current, weekly-updated dataset and the archived version:
Confirmed and Probable Counts In this dataset, counts by jurisdiction are not displayed by confirmed or probable status. Instead, confirmed and probable cases and deaths are included in the Total Cases and Total Deaths columns, when available. Not all jurisdictions report probable cases and deaths to CDC.* Confirmed and probable case definition criteria are described here:
Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists (ymaws.com).
Deaths CDC reports death data on other sections of the website: CDC COVID Data Tracker: Home, CDC COVID Data Tracker: Cases, Deaths, and Testing, and NCHS Provisional Death Counts. Information presented on the COVID Data Tracker pages is based on the same source (to
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After over two years of public reporting, the State Profile Report will no longer be produced and distributed after February 2023. The final release was on February 23, 2023. We want to thank everyone who contributed to the design, production, and review of this report and we hope that it provided insight into the data trends throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Data about COVID-19 will continue to be updated at CDC’s COVID Data Tracker.
The State Profile Report (SPR) is generated by the Data Strategy and Execution Workgroup in the Joint Coordination Cell, in collaboration with the White House. It is managed by an interagency team with representatives from multiple agencies and offices (including the United States Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the HHS Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, and the Indian Health Service). The SPR provides easily interpretable information on key indicators for each state, down to the county level.
It is a weekly snapshot in time that:
The AP has requested a timeseries dataset reporting daily counts for distributed and administered vaccines in the U.S. from the CDC. In the absence of that dataset, we are storing daily snapshots of the cumulative counts provided by the CDC COVID Data Tracker and compiling a timeseries dataset here. This process has captured cumulative counts going back to January 4th and daily counts of new doses administered and distributed going back to January 5th. The timeseries dataset also includes seven-day rolling average calculations for the daily metrics.
We have identified a few instances of decreasing cumulative counts in this timeseries, which result in single-day negative counts. We are treating these instances as corrections, and include the negative counts in the rolling averages.
We are investigating the cumulative count decreases and will update the timeseries dataset if necessary with additional information from the CDC. When the CDC provides its own timeseries dataset we will make that available here.
The AP is using data provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to report vaccine doses distributed and administered in the United States.
This data is from the CDC's COVID Data Tracker, which is updated daily. However, keep in mind that healthcare providers can report doses to federal, state, territorial, and local agencies up to 72 hours after doses are administered.
To learn more about AP's data journalism capabilities for publishers, corporations and financial institutions, go here or email kromano@ap.org.
The AP has designed an interactive map to track COVID-19 vaccine counts reported by The CDC. @(https://interactives.ap.org/embeds/TUVpf/14/)
<iframe title="Tracking US COVID vaccinations" aria-label="Map" id="datawrapper-chart-TUVpf" src="https://interactives.ap.org/embeds/TUVpf/14/" scrolling="no" width="100%" style="border:none" height="548"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");t&&(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}}))}();</script>
From The CDC: - Numbers reported on CDC’s website are validated through a submission process with each jurisdiction and may differ from numbers posted on other websites. - Differences between reporting jurisdictions and CDC’s website may occur due to the timing of reporting and website updates. - The process used for reporting doses distributed or people vaccinated displayed by other websites may differ.
This dataset of U.S. mortality trends since 1900 highlights the differences in age-adjusted death rates and life expectancy at birth by race and sex.
Age-adjusted death rates (deaths per 100,000) after 1998 are calculated based on the 2000 U.S. standard population. Populations used for computing death rates for 2011–2017 are postcensal estimates based on the 2010 census, estimated as of July 1, 2010. Rates for census years are based on populations enumerated in the corresponding censuses. Rates for noncensus years between 2000 and 2010 are revised using updated intercensal population estimates and may differ from rates previously published. Data on age-adjusted death rates prior to 1999 are taken from historical data (see References below).
Life expectancy data are available up to 2017. Due to changes in categories of race used in publications, data are not available for the black population consistently before 1968, and not at all before 1960. More information on historical data on age-adjusted death rates is available at https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/mortality/hist293.htm.
SOURCES
CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, historical data, 1900-1998 (see https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/mortality_historical_data.htm); CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, mortality data (see http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/deaths.htm); and CDC WONDER (see http://wonder.cdc.gov).
REFERENCES
National Center for Health Statistics, Data Warehouse. Comparability of cause-of-death between ICD revisions. 2008. Available from: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/mortality/comparability_icd.htm.
National Center for Health Statistics. Vital statistics data available. Mortality multiple cause files. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data_access/vitalstatsonline.htm.
Kochanek KD, Murphy SL, Xu JQ, Arias E. Deaths: Final data for 2017. National Vital Statistics Reports; vol 68 no 9. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2019. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_09-508.pdf.
Arias E, Xu JQ. United States life tables, 2017. National Vital Statistics Reports; vol 68 no 7. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2019. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_07-508.pdf.
National Center for Health Statistics. Historical Data, 1900-1998. 2009. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/mortality_historical_data.htm.
This landing page is part of the CDC Text Corpora for Learners program; this includes the compiled 33,576 CDC Text for Learners HTML mirrors of the MMWR Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report including its series: Weekly Reports, Recommendations and Reports, Surveillance Summaries, Supplements, and Notifiable Diseases, a subset of Weekly Reports, constructed ad hoc; EID Emerging Infectious Diseases; and PCD Preventing Chronic Disease
The data represented here is the tabulated metadata of the combined 33,567 articles of the MMWR, EID, and PCD collections whose contents are organized into three ZIP archived JSON files per collection. The JSON value output formats include UTF-8 HTML, UTF-8 markdown, and ASCII plain text.
The JSON files are located in the program's repository. This version was constructed on 2024-03-01 using source content retrieved on 2024-01-09.
The attached ZIP archives are part of the CDC Text Corpora for Learners program. This version, comprised of 33,567 articles, was constructed on 2024-03-01 using source content retrieved on 2024-01-09.
The attached three ZIP archives contain the 33,567 articles in 33,576 compiled HTML mirrors of the MMWR Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report including its series: Weekly Reports, Recommendations and Reports, Surveillance Summaries, Supplements, and Notifiable Diseases, a subset of Weekly Reports, constructed ad hoc; EID Emerging Infectious Diseases; and PCD Preventing Chronic Disease.There is one archive per series. The archive attachments are located in the About this Dataset section of this landing page. In that section when you click Show More, the attachments are located in the section Attachments.
The retrieval and organization of the files included making as few changes to raw sources as possible, to support as many downstream uses as possible.
The United States Cancer Statistics (USCS) online databases in WONDER provide cancer incidence and mortality data for the United States for the years since 1999, by year, state and metropolitan areas (MSA), age group, race, ethnicity, sex, childhood cancer classifications and cancer site. Report case counts, deaths, crude and age-adjusted incidence and death rates, and 95% confidence intervals for rates. The USCS data are the official federal statistics on cancer incidence from registries having high-quality data and cancer mortality statistics for 50 states and the District of Columbia. USCS are produced by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the National Cancer Institute (NCI), in collaboration with the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR). Mortality data are provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), National Vital Statistics System (NVSS).
Note: After May 3, 2024, this dataset will no longer be updated because hospitals are no longer required to report data on COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or occupancy data to HHS through CDC’s National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN). The related CDC COVID Data Tracker site was revised or retired on May 10, 2023.
Note: May 3,2024: Due to incomplete or missing hospital data received for the April 21,2024 through April 27, 2024 reporting period, the COVID-19 Hospital Admissions Level could not be calculated for CNMI and will be reported as “NA” or “Not Available” in the COVID-19 Hospital Admissions Level data released on May 3, 2024.
This dataset represents COVID-19 hospitalization data and metrics aggregated to county or county-equivalent, for all counties or county-equivalents (including territories) in the United States as of the initial date of reporting for each weekly metric. COVID-19 hospitalization data are reported to CDC’s National Healthcare Safety Network, which monitors national and local trends in healthcare system stress, capacity, and community disease levels for approximately 6,000 hospitals in the United States. Data reported by hospitals to NHSN and included in this dataset represent aggregated counts and include metrics capturing information specific to COVID-19 hospital admissions, and inpatient and ICU bed capacity occupancy.
Reporting information:
The AIDS Public Information Data Set (APIDS) for years 1981-2002 on CDC WONDER online database contains counts of AIDS (Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome) cases reported by state and local health departments, by demographics; location (region and selected metropolitan areas); case-definition; month/year and quarter-year of diagnosis, report, and death (if applicable); and HIV exposure group (risk factors for AIDS). Data are produced by the US Department of Health and Human Services (US DHHS), Public Health Service (PHS), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for HIV, STD and TB Prevention (NCHSTP), Division of HIV/AIDS Prevention (DHP).
On March 10, 2023, the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center ceased its collecting and reporting of global COVID-19 data. For updated cases, deaths, and vaccine data please visit: World Health Organization (WHO)For more information, visit the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center.COVID-19 Trends MethodologyOur goal is to analyze and present daily updates in the form of recent trends within countries, states, or counties during the COVID-19 global pandemic. The data we are analyzing is taken directly from the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases Dashboard, though we expect to be one day behind the dashboard’s live feeds to allow for quality assurance of the data.DOI: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.125529863/7/2022 - Adjusted the rate of active cases calculation in the U.S. to reflect the rates of serious and severe cases due nearly completely dominant Omicron variant.6/24/2020 - Expanded Case Rates discussion to include fix on 6/23 for calculating active cases.6/22/2020 - Added Executive Summary and Subsequent Outbreaks sectionsRevisions on 6/10/2020 based on updated CDC reporting. This affects the estimate of active cases by revising the average duration of cases with hospital stays downward from 30 days to 25 days. The result shifted 76 U.S. counties out of Epidemic to Spreading trend and no change for national level trends.Methodology update on 6/2/2020: This sets the length of the tail of new cases to 6 to a maximum of 14 days, rather than 21 days as determined by the last 1/3 of cases. This was done to align trends and criteria for them with U.S. CDC guidance. The impact is areas transition into Controlled trend sooner for not bearing the burden of new case 15-21 days earlier.Correction on 6/1/2020Discussion of our assertion of an abundance of caution in assigning trends in rural counties added 5/7/2020. Revisions added on 4/30/2020 are highlighted.Revisions added on 4/23/2020 are highlighted.Executive SummaryCOVID-19 Trends is a methodology for characterizing the current trend for places during the COVID-19 global pandemic. Each day we assign one of five trends: Emergent, Spreading, Epidemic, Controlled, or End Stage to geographic areas to geographic areas based on the number of new cases, the number of active cases, the total population, and an algorithm (described below) that contextualize the most recent fourteen days with the overall COVID-19 case history. Currently we analyze the countries of the world and the U.S. Counties. The purpose is to give policymakers, citizens, and analysts a fact-based data driven sense for the direction each place is currently going. When a place has the initial cases, they are assigned Emergent, and if that place controls the rate of new cases, they can move directly to Controlled, and even to End Stage in a short time. However, if the reporting or measures to curtail spread are not adequate and significant numbers of new cases continue, they are assigned to Spreading, and in cases where the spread is clearly uncontrolled, Epidemic trend.We analyze the data reported by Johns Hopkins University to produce the trends, and we report the rates of cases, spikes of new cases, the number of days since the last reported case, and number of deaths. We also make adjustments to the assignments based on population so rural areas are not assigned trends based solely on case rates, which can be quite high relative to local populations.Two key factors are not consistently known or available and should be taken into consideration with the assigned trend. First is the amount of resources, e.g., hospital beds, physicians, etc.that are currently available in each area. Second is the number of recoveries, which are often not tested or reported. On the latter, we provide a probable number of active cases based on CDC guidance for the typical duration of mild to severe cases.Reasons for undertaking this work in March of 2020:The popular online maps and dashboards show counts of confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries by country or administrative sub-region. Comparing the counts of one country to another can only provide a basis for comparison during the initial stages of the outbreak when counts were low and the number of local outbreaks in each country was low. By late March 2020, countries with small populations were being left out of the mainstream news because it was not easy to recognize they had high per capita rates of cases (Switzerland, Luxembourg, Iceland, etc.). Additionally, comparing countries that have had confirmed COVID-19 cases for high numbers of days to countries where the outbreak occurred recently is also a poor basis for comparison.The graphs of confirmed cases and daily increases in cases were fit into a standard size rectangle, though the Y-axis for one country had a maximum value of 50, and for another country 100,000, which potentially misled people interpreting the slope of the curve. Such misleading circumstances affected comparing large population countries to small population counties or countries with low numbers of cases to China which had a large count of cases in the early part of the outbreak. These challenges for interpreting and comparing these graphs represent work each reader must do based on their experience and ability. Thus, we felt it would be a service to attempt to automate the thought process experts would use when visually analyzing these graphs, particularly the most recent tail of the graph, and provide readers with an a resulting synthesis to characterize the state of the pandemic in that country, state, or county.The lack of reliable data for confirmed recoveries and therefore active cases. Merely subtracting deaths from total cases to arrive at this figure progressively loses accuracy after two weeks. The reason is 81% of cases recover after experiencing mild symptoms in 10 to 14 days. Severe cases are 14% and last 15-30 days (based on average days with symptoms of 11 when admitted to hospital plus 12 days median stay, and plus of one week to include a full range of severely affected people who recover). Critical cases are 5% and last 31-56 days. Sources:U.S. CDC. April 3, 2020 Interim Clinical Guidance for Management of Patients with Confirmed Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). Accessed online. Initial older guidance was also obtained online. Additionally, many people who recover may not be tested, and many who are, may not be tracked due to privacy laws. Thus, the formula used to compute an estimate of active cases is: Active Cases = 100% of new cases in past 14 days + 19% from past 15-25 days + 5% from past 26-49 days - total deaths. On 3/17/2022, the U.S. calculation was adjusted to: Active Cases = 100% of new cases in past 14 days + 6% from past 15-25 days + 3% from past 26-49 days - total deaths. Sources: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e4.htm https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions If a new variant arrives and appears to cause higher rates of serious cases, we will roll back this adjustment. We’ve never been inside a pandemic with the ability to learn of new cases as they are confirmed anywhere in the world. After reviewing epidemiological and pandemic scientific literature, three needs arose. We need to specify which portions of the pandemic lifecycle this map cover. The World Health Organization (WHO) specifies six phases. The source data for this map begins just after the beginning of Phase 5: human to human spread and encompasses Phase 6: pandemic phase. Phase six is only characterized in terms of pre- and post-peak. However, these two phases are after-the-fact analyses and cannot ascertained during the event. Instead, we describe (below) a series of five trends for Phase 6 of the COVID-19 pandemic.Choosing terms to describe the five trends was informed by the scientific literature, particularly the use of epidemic, which signifies uncontrolled spread. The five trends are: Emergent, Spreading, Epidemic, Controlled, and End Stage. Not every locale will experience all five, but all will experience at least three: emergent, controlled, and end stage.This layer presents the current trends for the COVID-19 pandemic by country (or appropriate level). There are five trends:Emergent: Early stages of outbreak. Spreading: Early stages and depending on an administrative area’s capacity, this may represent a manageable rate of spread. Epidemic: Uncontrolled spread. Controlled: Very low levels of new casesEnd Stage: No New cases These trends can be applied at several levels of administration: Local: Ex., City, District or County – a.k.a. Admin level 2State: Ex., State or Province – a.k.a. Admin level 1National: Country – a.k.a. Admin level 0Recommend that at least 100,000 persons be represented by a unit; granted this may not be possible, and then the case rate per 100,000 will become more important.Key Concepts and Basis for Methodology: 10 Total Cases minimum threshold: Empirically, there must be enough cases to constitute an outbreak. Ideally, this would be 5.0 per 100,000, but not every area has a population of 100,000 or more. Ten, or fewer, cases are also relatively less difficult to track and trace to sources. 21 Days of Cases minimum threshold: Empirically based on COVID-19 and would need to be adjusted for any other event. 21 days is also the minimum threshold for analyzing the “tail” of the new cases curve, providing seven cases as the basis for a likely trend (note that 21 days in the tail is preferred). This is the minimum needed to encompass the onset and duration of a normal case (5-7 days plus 10-14 days). Specifically, a median of 5.1 days incubation time, and 11.2 days for 97.5% of cases to incubate. This is also driven by pressure to understand trends and could easily be adjusted to 28 days. Source
An archive of estimated trend categories, probabilities of epidemic growth, and Rt, updated weekly for COVID-19 and flu. Estimates are based on emergency department visits reported to the National Syndromic Surveillance Program (NSSP), and generated using a model that includes nowcasting to adjust for incomplete reports on the most recent dates. See the visuals supported by these data, and more information about the data, models and methods at https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-modeling-and-forecasting/rt-estimates/index.html, and https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/data/activity-levels.html.
For a semi-technical overview of the modeling methods used to generate these estimates see https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-behind-the-model/php/data-research/rt-estimates/index.html.
For the code used to run the models, see https://github.com/CDCgov/cfa-epinow2-pipeline.
The Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) online database on CDC WONDER provides counts and percentages of adverse event case reports after vaccination, received since January 1990 through last month. Data are available by symptom, vaccine product, manufacturer, onset interval, outcome category, year and month vaccinated, year and month reported, age, sex and state / territory. The Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System is a cooperative program for vaccine safety of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). VAERS is a post-marketing safety surveillance program, collecting information about adverse events (possible side effects) that occur after the administration of US licensed vaccines. Data are from the US Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS), Public Health Service (PHS), Food and Drug Administration (FDA)/ Centers for Disease Control (CDC), Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS).