Input Data for Figure 7.3 from Chapter 7 of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).

Figure 7.3 shows anomalies in global mean all-sky top-of-atmosphere (TOA) fluxes from CERES-EBAF Ed4.0 and various CMIP6 climate models in terms of reflected solar, emitted thermal and net TOA fluxes.

How to cite this dataset

When citing this dataset, please include both the data citation below (under 'Citable as') and the following citation for the report component from which the figure originates: Forster, P., T. Storelvmo, K. Armour, W. Collins, J.-L. Dufresne, D. Frame, D.J. Lunt, T. Mauritsen, M.D. Palmer, M. Watanabe, M. Wild, and H. Zhang, 2021: The Earth’s Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 923–1054, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.009.

Figure subpanels

The figure has 3 subpanels, with input data provided for panels a-c. A link to the code to plot the figure archived on Zenodo is provided in the Related Documents section of this catalogue record.

List of data provided

This dataset contains:

• Anomalies in global mean all-sky top-of-atmosphere (TOA) fluxes from CERES-EBAF Ed4.0 in terms of reflected solar, emitted thermal and net TOA fluxes.
• Anomalies in various CMIP6 climate models in terms of reflected solar, emitted thermal and net TOA fluxes.

(a) Global mean solar flux anomaly. (b) Global mean thermal flux anomaly. (c) Global mean net flux anomaly.

Anomalies in global mean all-sky top-of-atmosphere (TOA) fluxes from CERES-EBAF Ed4.0 are depicted as solid black lines. Anomalies in CMIP6 climate models are depicted as coloured lines. The multi-model means are additionally depicted as solid red lines.

Model fluxes stem from simulations driven with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and all known anthropogenic and natural forcings. Shown are anomalies of 12-month running means. All flux anomalies are defined as positive downwards, consistent with the sign convention used throughout this chapter. The correlations between the multi-model means (solid red lines) and the CERES records (solid black lines) for 12-month running means are: 0.85 for the global mean reflected solar; 0.73 for outgoing thermal radiation; and 0.81 for net TOA radiation. Figure adapted from Loeb et al. (2020).

The models from which the input data are derived are the following: - CERES - CESM2 - CanESM5 - EC-Earth3 - ECHAM - GFDL - HadGEM3 - IPSL - multimodel - EC-Earth3-Veg - ECHAM6.3 - GFDL-AM4 - IPSL-CM6A

Further details on data sources and processing are available in the chapter data table (Table 7.SM.14).

CMIP6 is the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. CERES stands for Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System. CERES-EBAF Ed4.0 is the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System - Energy Balanced and Filled data product version 4. CESM2 is the Community Earth System Model version 2. CanESM5 is the Canadian Earth System Model version 5. EC-Earth3 is the European Community Earth-system model version 3. ECHAM is an atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) from the MPI (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology). GFDL is the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. HadGEM3 is the Met Offfice Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 3. IPSL is the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace. EC-Earth3-Veg is the European Community Earth-system model version 3, with the Global Circulation Model (GCM) coupled to the dynamic vegetation model. ECHAM6.3 is version 6.2 of the atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) ECHAM from the MPI (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology). GFDL-AM4 is the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Atmosphere and Land Model version 4. IPSL-CM6A is the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Climate Model for CMIP6.

Data provided in relation to figure

Data provided in relation to Figure 7.3:

• Data file: Global_Net_Anomaly_Timeserie... For full abstract see: https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/6842c53c516746ea860e11512dc133c2.

Data for FAQ 7.3 Figure 1, from Chapter 7 of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).

FAQ 7.3 Figure 1 shows equilibrium climate sensitivity and future warming.

How to cite this dataset

When citing this dataset, please include both the data citation below (under 'Citable as') and the following citation for the report component from which the figure originates: Forster, P., T. Storelvmo, K. Armour, W. Collins, J.-L. Dufresne, D. Frame, D.J. Lunt, T. Mauritsen, M.D. Palmer, M. Watanabe, M. Wild, and H. Zhang, 2021: The Earth’s Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 923–1054, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.009.

Figure subpanels

The figure has 2 subpanels, with data provided for both panels.

List of data provided

This dataset contains:

• (left) Equilibrium climate sensitivities for the current generation (CMIP6) climate models, and the previous (CMIP5) generation. The assessed range in this Report (AR6) is also shown.

• (right) Climate projections of CMIP5, CMIP6 and AR6 for the very high-emissions scenarios RCP8.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively.

The thick horizontal lines represent the multi-model average and the thin horizontal lines represent the results of individual models. The boxes represent the model ranges for CMIP5 and CMIP6 and the range assessed in AR6.

Data provided in relation to figure

Data provided in relation to FAQ 7.3 Figure 1.

• Data file: ECS_Proj_CMIP5_CMIP6.csv

CMIP5 is the fifth stage of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. CMIP6 is the sixth stage of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.

Notes on reproducing the figure from the provided data

Data and figures are produced by the Jupyter Notebooks that live inside the notebooks directory. Also listed on the 'master' GitHub page linked in the documentation of this catalogue record are external GitHub repositories and locations within the contributed directory where code for figures have been supplied by other authors. These are provided "as-is" and are not guaranteed to be reproducible within this environment. For external GitHub locations, check out the relevant repository READMEs.

The notebook used to plot this figure and the input data used in the code are linked in the 'Related Documents' section. The input data to this code is also archived at CEDA.

Sources of additional information

The following weblinks are provided in the Related Documents section of this catalogue record: - Link to the figure on the IPCC AR6 website - Link to the report component containing the figure (Chapter 7) - Link to the Supplementary Material for Chapter 7, which contains details on the input data used in Table 7.SM.1 to 7.SM.7. - Link to the Jupyter notebook for plotting this figure from the Chapter 7 GitHub repository - Link to the code for the figure, archived on Zenodo