Replication data and code for all tables and figures in the paper as well as all robustness checks and figures in the online-only appendix. Requires Stata 14.2+ and R 4.1.2+ to run. Although central bank independence is a core tenet of monetary policy-making, it remains politically contested: In many emerging markets, populist governments are in frequent public conflict with the central bank. At other times, the same governments profess to respect the monetary authority’s independence. We model this conflict drawing on the crisis bargaining literature. Our model predicts that populist politicians will often bring a nominally independent central bank to heel without having to change its legal status. To provide evidence, we build a new data set of public pressure on central banks by classifying over 9000 analyst reports using machine learning. We find that populist politicians are more likely than non-populists to exert public pressure on the central bank, unless checked by financial markets, and also more likely to obtain interest rate concessions. Our findings underscore that de jure does not equal de facto central bank independence in the face of populist pressures.

Central Banking Systems Market Outlook

The global central banking systems market size is projected to witness significant growth, expanding from USD 12.3 billion in 2023 to an estimated USD 22.8 billion by 2032, reflecting a robust compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.8% over the forecast period. The growth of this market is driven by several factors, including the increasing digital transformation of financial institutions, the rising need for real-time processing capabilities, and the growing emphasis on financial stability and regulatory compliance. As central banks continue to modernize their operations to enhance efficiency and security, the market for central banking systems is poised for considerable expansion.

One of the primary growth factors of the central banking systems market is the escalating demand for advanced financial infrastructure. In an era where economies are increasingly interconnected, central banks are under pressure to implement sophisticated systems that can handle complex monetary policies, manage currency issuance, and oversee financial stability. As technology evolves, there is an increasing need for systems that offer real-time data analytics, support digital currencies, and provide robust cybersecurity measures. These advancements are essential for central banks to fulfill their mandates effectively, driving the demand for innovative central banking solutions.

Another significant growth factor is the global push towards digital currencies, particularly central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). As more countries explore the possibility of launching CBDCs, the need for advanced and secure central banking systems becomes more pronounced. These systems must be capable of supporting CBDC issuance and circulation while maintaining the integrity of traditional currency systems. Additionally, the growing prevalence of digital transactions necessitates the adoption of scalable and efficient payment systems by central banks. The convergence of these trends is propelling the demand for comprehensive central banking solutions that can accommodate both traditional and digital financial operations.

Furthermore, the increasing focus on financial stability and regulatory compliance is a crucial driver for the central banking systems market. In the wake of financial crises and market volatility, there is heightened scrutiny on how central banks manage risks and maintain stability. This has led to a surge in investments in systems that enhance transparency, improve risk management, and ensure compliance with international standards. By adopting advanced central banking systems, financial institutions can better monitor economic indicators, predict potential risks, and implement timely interventions to stabilize markets. Such capabilities are integral to upholding investor confidence and sustaining economic growth.

Regionally, the Asia Pacific is anticipated to be a key player in the central banking systems market, driven by rapid technological advancements and economic growth in countries like China and India. North America and Europe are also expected to see substantial growth, attributed to the modernization initiatives undertaken by their respective central banks. Meanwhile, Latin America and the Middle East & Africa are gradually recognizing the importance of upgrading their financial infrastructures, contributing to the overall market expansion. Each region's unique economic and regulatory landscape presents distinct opportunities and challenges for market participants.

Component Analysis

In the central banking systems market, components are broadly categorized into software, hardware, and services. Software solutions form the backbone of modern central banking operations, providing the necessary tools for managing monetary policy, currency issuance, and financial stability. These solutions include a wide range of applications, from core banking software to platforms facilitating digital currency transactions. The demand for such software is fueled by the need for scalable, secure, and flexible systems capable of handling increasing transaction volumes and supporting emerging financial instruments like CBDCs.

Hardware components, while not as prominent as software, play a vital role in the infrastructure of central banking systems. These include servers, data storage solutions, and networking equipment essential for maintaining robust and secure financial operations. As central banks embrace digital transformation, there is a growing need for advanced hardware that can support high-performance computing, data analytics, and secure com

The benchmark interest rate in Sweden was last recorded at 2 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Sweden Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

This analysis presents a rigorous exploration of financial data, incorporating a diverse range of statistical features. By providing a robust foundation, it facilitates advanced research and innovative modeling techniques within the field of finance.

Central Bank Discount Window Operations: Function, Importance, and Impact on Monetary Policy

Financial data:

• Historical daily stock prices (open, high, low, close, volume)

• Fundamental data (e.g., market capitalization, price to earnings P/E ratio, dividend yield, earnings per share EPS, price to earnings growth, debt-to-equity ratio, price-to-book ratio, current ratio, free cash flow, projected earnings growth, return on equity, dividend payout ratio, price to sales ratio, credit rating)

• Technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD, average directional index, aroon oscillator, stochastic oscillator, on-balance volume, accumulation/distribution A/D line, parabolic SAR indicator, bollinger bands indicators, fibonacci, williams percent range, commodity channel index)

Machine learning features:

• Feature engineering based on financial data and technical indicators

• Sentiment analysis data from social media and news articles

• Macroeconomic data (e.g., GDP, unemployment rate, interest rates, consumer spending, building permits, consumer confidence, inflation, producer price index, money supply, home sales, retail sales, bond yields)

Potential Applications:

• Stock price prediction

• Portfolio optimization

• Algorithmic trading

• Market sentiment analysis

• Risk management

Use Cases:

• Researchers investigating the effectiveness of machine learning in stock market prediction

• Analysts developing quantitative trading Buy/Sell strategies

• Individuals interested in building their own stock market prediction models

• Students learning about machine learning and financial applications

Additional Notes:

• The dataset may include different levels of granularity (e.g., daily, hourly)

• Data cleaning and preprocessing are essential before model training

• Regular updates are recommended to maintain the accuracy and relevance of the data

The benchmark interest rate in Turkey was last recorded at 43 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Turkey Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

This paper adopts and develops the “fear of floating” theory to explain the decision to implement a de facto peg, the choice of anchor currency among multiple key currencies, and the role of central bank independence for these choices. We argue that since exchange rate depreciations are passed-through into higher prices of imported goods, avoiding the import of inflation provides an important motive to de facto peg the exchange rate in import-dependent countries. This study shows that the choice of anchor currency is determined by the degree of dependence of the potentially pegging country on imports from the key currency country and on imports from the key currency area, consisting of all countries which have already pegged to this key currency. The fear of floating approach also predicts that countries with more independent central banks are more likely to de facto peg their exchange rate since independent central banks are more averse to inflation than governments and can de facto peg a country's exchange rate independently of the government.

This paper adopts and develops the ‘‘fear of floating’’ theory to explain the decision to implement a de facto peg, the choice of anchor currency among multiple key currencies, and the role of central bank independence for these choices. We argue that since exchange rate depreciations are passed-through into higher prices of imported goods, avoiding the import of inflation provides an important motive to de facto peg the exchange rate in import-dependent countries. This study shows that the choice of anchor currency is determined by the degree of dependence of the potentially pegging country on imports from the key currency country and on imports from the key currency area, consisting of all countries which have already pegged to this key currency. The fear of floating approach also predicts that countries with more independent central banks are more likely to de facto peg their exchange rate since independent central banks are more averse to inflation than governments and can de facto peg a country’s exchange rate independently of the government.

Billionaire John Paulson predicts gold prices will soar to $5,000 by 2028, citing central bank purchases and trade tensions as key factors.

Consumer-initiated cross-border payments are to grow nearly ***** as fast as its B2B counterpart between 2024 and 2032, although remaining small in comparison. This is according to a market model that aims to capture the full size of worldwide international payments, focusing especially on the business side of things. The B2B cross-border payments market, so the source estimates, is to increase by ** percent with B2B e-commerce being one of the main drivers within this segment. The source described consumer cross-border payments as “a significantly smaller market”, but it did predict this particular market would grow by roughly ** percent in seven years. Wholesale includes payments performed by banks, investors, and hedge funds. Banks listed several reasons on why they wanted to modernize international transactions, most notably lower costs and reaching new markets. Cross-border payments a bigger market than remittances International transactions covering B2B, B2C, and documentary trade comprised about ** percent of the total cross-border payments market in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa in 2022. This was for all three areas combined, with no separate figures being available. Remittances — the C2C segment — were worth around ** billion U.S. dollars that year for the region. Note this includes international business transactions, and does not exclusively cover C2C transactions alone. Commercial-based cross-border payments also outpaced consumer transactions in Asia-Pacific — the region with the highest value of cross-border transactions in the world. Several options to modernize international transactions A big theme for cross-border payments in 2023 is the question of how to help speed up processes and combat international payment system fragmentation. Central banks believed that CBDC held the most promise to make international payments more efficient. The potential of such digital variants of existing FX, such as the U.S. dollar or the euro, was regarded higher than other trends — such as linking real-time payment systems together, the use of stablecoins or the upcoming ISO 20022. Central banks do acknowledge potential legal issues or technical implementations. As this is still very much in testing, the uptake of CBDC worldwide was relatively low even in countries which had already launched such a virtual currency.

Inflation Nowcasting Monthly Month-Over-Month is a part of the Inflation Nowcasting indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland provides daily “nowcasts” of inflation for two popular price indexes, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). These nowcasts give a sense of where inflation is today. Released each business day.

Insights into the magnitude and performance of an economy are crucial, with the growth rate of real GDP frequently used as a key indicator of economic health, highlighting the importance of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Additionally, remittances have drawn considerable global interest in recent years, particularly in The Gambia. This study introduces an innovative model, a hybrid of recurrent neural network and long-short-term memory (RNN-LSTM), to predict GDP growth based on remittance inflows in The Gambia. The model integrates data sourced both from the World Bank Development Indicators and the Central Bank of The Gambia (1966–2022). Pearson’s correlation was applied to detect and choose the variables that exhibit the strongest relationship with GDP and remittances. Furthermore, a parameter transfer learning technique was employed to enhance the model’s predictive accuracy. The hyperparameters of the model were fine-tuned through a random search process, and its effectiveness was assessed using RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and R2 metrics. The research results show, first, that it has good generalization capacity, with stable applicability in predicting GDP growth based on remittance inflows. Second, as compared to standalone models the suggested model surpassed in term of predicting accuracy attained the highest R2 score of 91.285%. Third, the predicted outcomes further demonstrated a strong and positive relationship between remittances and short-term economic growth. This paper addresses a critical research gap by employing artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to forecast GDP based on remittance inflows.

The inflation rate in the United States is expected to decrease to 2.1 percent by 2029. 2022 saw a year of exceptionally high inflation, reaching eight percent for the year. The data represents U.S. city averages. The base period was 1982-84. In economics, the inflation rate is a measurement of inflation, the rate of increase of a price index (in this case: consumer price index). It is the percentage rate of change in prices level over time. The rate of decrease in the purchasing power of money is approximately equal. According to the forecast, prices will increase by 2.9 percent in 2024. The annual inflation rate for previous years can be found here and the consumer price index for all urban consumers here. The monthly inflation rate for the United States can also be accessed here. Inflation in the U.S.Inflation is a term used to describe a general rise in the price of goods and services in an economy over a given period of time. Inflation in the United States is calculated using the consumer price index (CPI). The consumer price index is a measure of change in the price level of a preselected market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households. This forecast of U.S. inflation was prepared by the International Monetary Fund. They project that inflation will stay higher than average throughout 2023, followed by a decrease to around roughly two percent annual rise in the general level of prices until 2028. Considering the annual inflation rate in the United States in 2021, a two percent inflation rate is a very moderate projection. The 2022 spike in inflation in the United States and worldwide is due to a variety of factors that have put constraints on various aspects of the economy. These factors include COVID-19 pandemic spending and supply-chain constraints, disruptions due to the war in Ukraine, and pandemic related changes in the labor force. Although the moderate inflation of prices between two and three percent is considered normal in a modern economy, countries’ central banks try to prevent severe inflation and deflation to keep the growth of prices to a minimum. Severe inflation is considered dangerous to a country’s economy because it can rapidly diminish the population’s purchasing power and thus damage the GDP .

Companies operating in the third-party real estate industry have had to navigate numerous economic headwinds in recent years, notably rising interest rates, spiralling inflation and muted economic growth. Revenue is projected to sink at a compound annual rate of 0.6% over the five years through 2025, including an estimated jump of 1.2% in 2025 to €207.6 billion, while the average industry profit margin is forecast to reach 35.1%. Amid spiralling inflation, central banks across Europe ratcheted up interest rates, resulting in borrowing costs skyrocketing over the two years through 2023. In residential markets, elevated mortgage rates combined with tightening credit conditions eventually ate into demand, inciting a drop in house prices. Rental markets performed well when house prices were elevated (2021-2023), being the cheaper alternative for cash-strapped buyers. However, even lessors felt the pinch of rising mortgage rates, forcing them to hoist rent prices to cover costs and pricing out potential buyers. This led to a slowdown in rental markets in 2023, weighing on revenue growth. However, this has started to turn around in 2025 as interest rates have been falling across Europe in the two years through 2025, reducing borrowing costs for buyers and boosting property transactions. This has helped revenue to rebound slightly in 2025 as estate agents earn commission from property transactions. Revenue is forecast to swell at a compound annual rate of 3.7% over the five years through 2030 to €249.5 billion. Housing prices are recovering in 2025 as fixed-rate mortgages begin to drop and economic uncertainty subsides, aiding revenue growth in the short term. Over the coming years, PropTech—technology-driven innovations designed to improve and streamline the real estate industry—will force estate agents to adapt, shaking up the traditional real estate sector. A notable application of PropTech is the use of AI and data analytics to predict a home’s future value and speed up the process of retrofitting properties to become more sustainable.

As of February 2020, 33 percent of Indonesian respondents believed that number of COVID-19 cases would go up locally. Shortly after Indonesia's President confirmed the first two cases in Indonesia at the beginning of March 2020, Indonesia's central bank, Bank Indonesia, said the country’s economic growth could still arise to 5.4 percent despite the ongoing spread of the coronavirus. For further information about the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, please visit our dedicated Facts and Figures page.

In 2024, the national debt of India amounted to around 3.16 trillion U.S. dollars. Projections show an upward trend, with a significant increase each year. Honor thy national debtNational debt, also called government debt or public debt, is money owed by the federal government. It can be divided into internal debt, (which is owed to lenders in the country) and external debt (which is owed to foreign lenders). National debt is created and increased by using government bonds, for example, or by borrowing money from other nations due to financial struggles (well-known case in point: Greece). A quite complex issue, national debt is expected to be paid back in accordance with certain regulations overseen by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), a financial organization owned by central banks. India’s debt is rising, but so is its economic growthIndia’s liabilities have increased significantly, and forecasts show no end in sight. While India is a fast-growing economy and considered one of the main emerging economies, the so-called BRIC countries, India has been investing and borrowing money from commercial banks as well as several non-banking finance companies, and its national debt today makes up almost 70 percent of its GDP. Luckily, even though the national debt is forecast to increase, this share of GDP is predicted to decrease, as is the trade deficit in the long run, despite a significant jump back into the red in 2017.

Leaders in financial services worldwide predicted 2024 would be a more risky year than the two previous ones, mostly due to external factors. The directors and executives surveyed especially cited macroeconomics - interest rates and inflation - as a major concern going into the new year. The source also adds that the general level of uncertainty in 2024 was higher than in 2023: The top risk of 2024 had an average score of **** out of 10, rather than the main risk of 2023 having an average of ****.

Deep-water demersal fishes are an important component of continental shelf and slope ecosystems and play an important role in the economies of many countries. Strong and predictable relationships of fishes with seabed habitats, in conjunction with rapid advances in acoustic seabed mapping capabilities, indicate there is great potential for using habitats as proxies or ‘surrogates’ to predict species distribution and abundance patterns at broad regional scales. However, few studies have evaluated this potential in complex seabed environments. In this study, we examined the spatial distributions, assemblage composition, and benthic habitat associations of deep-water demersal fish species over three spatial scales across Cordell Bank, a deep-water bank in central California. Demersal fishes were counted and habitats quantified from 60 strip-transects allocated over the extent of the bank using in situ observer and video-recorded data from the two-person Delta submersible. Both abundance and distribution of demersal fish species on Cordell Bank were strongly correlated with spatial location and habitat composition on the bank. Habitat structure was heterogeneous at several spatial scales. At broad scales, the rocky bank itself contained the highest diversity of both habitats and fishes. At intermediate scales, transition zones (10-100s of m wide) between the bank and continental slope and shelf sediments supported a diverse and characteristic suite of fish species. Habitats were also heterogeneous at finer-scales (1-10s of m) within these broad-scale zones, and fish responses to these habitat characteristics were taxon-specific, and often contingent on the spatial configuration of fine scale habitats within the broader-scale landscape. The results of this study indicate that for many species it is not sufficient to just know the fine-scale habitat association to predict fish assemblages.

In 2024, the average annual inflation rate in China ranged at around 0.2 percent compared to the previous year. For 2025, projections by the IMF expect slightly negative inflation. The monthly inflation rate in China dropped to negative values in the first quarter of 2025. Calculation of inflation The inflation rate is calculated based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for China. The CPI is computed using a product basket that contains a predefined range of products and services on which the average consumer spends money throughout the year. Included are expenses for groceries, clothes, rent, power, telecommunications, recreational activities, and raw materials (e.g. gas, oil), as well as federal fees and taxes. The product basked is adjusted every five years to reflect changes in consumer preference and has been updated in 2020 for the last time. The inflation rate is then calculated using changes in the CPI. As the inflation of a country is seen as a key economic indicator, it is frequently used for international comparison. China's inflation in comparison Among the main industrialized and emerging economies worldwide, China displayed comparatively low inflation in 2023 and 2024. In previous years, China's inflation ranged marginally above the inflation rates of established industrialized powerhouses such as the United States or the European Union. However, this changed in 2021, as inflation rates in developed countries rose quickly, while prices in China only increased moderately. According to IMF estimates for 2024, Zimbabwe was expected to be the country with the highest inflation rate, with a consumer price increase of about 561 percent compared to 2023. In 2023, Turkmenistan had the lowest price increase worldwide with prices actually decreasing by about 1.7 percent.

The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4.50 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.