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TwitterDeveloping and emerging market economies have increased their debt exposure to China in recent years. Despite its initial promise, many borrowers of Chinese loans face difficulties in meeting these loan obligations. Under what circumstances do Chinese borrowers in debt distress turn to the International Monetary Fund? Our starting point is that Chinese loans are tied into projects that promise to generate sufficient revenue to repay these loans. We expect that governments turn to the IMF for bailout funding when a severe shock erodes the value of the underlying loan collateral, requiring mobilizing revenues and implementing austerity measures. Without alternative financing options, the IMF becomes the most viable option to weather financial distress. We expect governments to accept a `whatever-it-takes' number of loan conditions. Using cross-country time series analysis for up to 162 countries between 2000 and 2018, we show that defaults on Chinese debt trigger IMF programs only when a country experiences a severe adverse shock. Countries tapping the IMF also accept a greater number of loan conditions. From a policy perspective, current financial distress in borrowing countries underscores the urgency to design and deploy targeted governance reform measures beyond program safeguards and loan conditions to mitigate the built-up of macro-financial vulnerabilities, independent of where the money is coming from.
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TwitterWhat drives elite capital flight into offshore destinations? While existing literature focuses on regulatory gaps or global tax competition, international bailouts themselves can catalyze elite capital flight. Specifically, we examine how two instruments of the Global Financial Safety Net (GFSN)—the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the People’s Bank of China (PBoC)’s swap lines—impact elite incentives to move wealth offshore. We develop a two-dimensional framework centered on Disbursement Control and Elite Threat Perception to theorize when and how elites extract and expatriate wealth. Using data from 201 countries between 1990 and 2018, we find that the anticipation of IMF programs increases offshore bank deposits by 14.2%, consistent with elites responding to rising threat perception. By contrast, the introduction of PBoC swap lines increases offshore deposits by 92.3%, reflecting extraction under low disbursement control, enabling moral hazard. We illustrate the core mechanisms of our argument through mini-case studies of Angola, Tajikistan, and Mongolia. Our findings reveal a structural vulnerability in the GFSN stemming from regulatory fragmentation and uncoordinated oversight.
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TwitterAttribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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The government shutdown has delayed crucial financial aid for US soybean farmers, who are facing massive economic losses due to tariffs and collapsed Chinese markets, with proposed bailouts called insufficient.
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TwitterMore and more Danish e-commerce businesses seemed to be expecting to use bailouts or help packages due to the coronavirus outbreak over the past weeks. However, half of the surveyed respondents still did not expect to use bailouts as of March 30, 2020.
Originating in Wuhan, China, the novel coronavirus has spread globally and has hit the Nordic countries.
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TwitterThe statistic lists the 20 countries with the lowest inflation rate in 2024. In 2023, China ranked 6th with an inflation rate of about 0.21 percent compared to the previous year. Inflation rates and the financial crisis Due to relatively stagnant worker wages as well as a hesitation from banks to so easily distribute loans to the ordinary citizen, inflation has remained considerably low. Low inflation rates are most apparent in European countries, which stems from the on-going Eurozone debt crisis as well as from the global financial crisis of 2008. With continuous economical struggles and a currently sensitive economic situation throughout Europe, precautions were taken in order to maintain stability and to prevent consequential breakdowns, such as those in Greece and Spain. Additionally, the average European consumer had to endure financial setbacks, causing doubt in the general future of the entire European Union, as evident in the consumer confidence statistics, which in turn raised the question, if several handpicked countries should step out of the EU in order to improve its economic position. Greece, while perhaps experiencing the largest economic drought out of all European countries, improved on its inflation rate. The situation within the country is slowly improving itself as a result of a recent bailout as well as economic stimulus packages issued by the European Union. Furthermore, the Greek government managed its revenues and expenses more competently in comparison to the prime of the global and the Greek financial crisis, with annual expenses only slightly exceeding yearly revenues.
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TwitterDeveloping and emerging market economies have increased their debt exposure to China in recent years. Despite its initial promise, many borrowers of Chinese loans face difficulties in meeting these loan obligations. Under what circumstances do Chinese borrowers in debt distress turn to the International Monetary Fund? Our starting point is that Chinese loans are tied into projects that promise to generate sufficient revenue to repay these loans. We expect that governments turn to the IMF for bailout funding when a severe shock erodes the value of the underlying loan collateral, requiring mobilizing revenues and implementing austerity measures. Without alternative financing options, the IMF becomes the most viable option to weather financial distress. We expect governments to accept a `whatever-it-takes' number of loan conditions. Using cross-country time series analysis for up to 162 countries between 2000 and 2018, we show that defaults on Chinese debt trigger IMF programs only when a country experiences a severe adverse shock. Countries tapping the IMF also accept a greater number of loan conditions. From a policy perspective, current financial distress in borrowing countries underscores the urgency to design and deploy targeted governance reform measures beyond program safeguards and loan conditions to mitigate the built-up of macro-financial vulnerabilities, independent of where the money is coming from.