The Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008), which began due to the collapse of the U.S. housing market, had a negative effect in many regions across the globe. The global recession which followed the crisis in 2008 and 2009 showed how interdependent and synchronized many of the world's economies had become, with the largest advanced economies showing very similar patterns of negative GDP growth during the crisis. Among the largest emerging economies (commonly referred to as the 'E7'), however, a different pattern emerged, with some countries avoiding a recession altogether. Some commentators have particularly pointed to 2008-2009 as the moment in which China emerged on the world stage as an economic superpower and a key driver of global economic growth. The Great Recession in the developing world While some countries, such as Russia, Mexico, and Turkey, experienced severe recessions due to their connections to the United States and Europe, others such as China, India, and Indonesia managed to record significant economic growth during the period. This can be partly explained by the decoupling from western financial systems which these countries undertook following the Asian financial crises of 1997, making many Asian nations more wary of opening their countries to 'hot money' from other countries. Other likely explanations of this trend are that these countries have large domestic economies which are not entirely reliant on the advanced economies, that their export sectors produce goods which are inelastic (meaning they are still bought during recessions), and that the Chinese economic stimulus worth almost 600 billion U.S. dollars in 2008/2009 increased growth in the region.

China: Economic growth forecast: The latest value from 2030 is 3.38 percent, a decline from 3.7 percent in 2029. In comparison, the world average is 3.25 percent, based on data from 182 countries. Historically, the average for China from 1980 to 2030 is 8.37 percent. The minimum value, 2.34 percent, was reached in 2020 while the maximum of 15.2 percent was recorded in 1984.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in China expanded 5.20 percent in the second quarter of 2025 over the same quarter of the previous year. This dataset provides - China GDP Annual Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The graph shows national debt in China related to gross domestic product until 2024, with forecasts to 2030. In 2024, gross national debt ranged at around 88 percent of the national gross domestic product. The debt-to-GDP ratio In economics, the ratio between a country's government debt and its gross domestic product (GDP) is generally defined as the debt-to-GDP ratio. It is a useful indicator for investors to measure a country's ability to fulfill future payments on its debts. A low debt-to-GDP ratio also suggests that an economy produces and sells a sufficient amount of goods and services to pay back those debts. Among the important industrial and emerging countries, Japan displayed one of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios. In 2024, the estimated national debt of Japan amounted to about 250 percent of its GDP, up from around 180 percent in 2004. One reason behind Japan's high debt load lies in its low annual GDP growth rate. Development in China China's national debt related to GDP grew slowly but steadily from around 23 percent in 2000 to 34 percent in 2012, only disrupted by the global financial crisis in 2008. In recent years, China increased credit financing to spur economic growth, resulting in higher levels of debt. China's real estate crisis and a difficult global economic environment require further stimulating measures by the government and will predictably lead to even higher debt growth in the years ahead.

According to a median projection in July 2025, China's GDP was expected to grow by *** percent in 2025. In the first quarter of 2020, the second-largest economy recorded the first contraction in decades due to the epidemic.  A root-to-branch shutdown of factories To curb the spread of the virus, the Chinese government imposed a lockdown in Wuhan, the epicenter, and other cities in Hubei province on January 23, 2020. A strict nationwide lockdown soon followed. Many factories remained closed in February, resulting in a plunge in manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). The shutdown of the “world’s factory” had severely disrupted global supply chains, especially automobile production. In March 2020, very few industrial sectors reported positive production growth.  The pharmaceuticals sector recorded a production increase, which was mainly driven by the global demand for vital medical supplies. China had exported over seven billion yuan worth of face masks. Ripple effects on global tourism Apart from the manufacturing industry, the prolonged closures of business had caused significant losses in various sectors in China. The travel and tourism sector was massively affected by a drastic decline in flight ticket sales  and hotel occupancy rates. The domestic tourism market expects a loss of 20 percent in revenues for 2020. Industry experts predicted that the global travel and tourism industry could lose about *** trillion U.S. dollars in that year. 

Rio Tinto's Q4 2024 iron ore shipments saw a slight decline due to reduced demand from China, aligning with market expectations. The company's annual exports remained strong, and it continues to advance growth projects globally.

China boasts the fastest growing GDP of all developed nations. Neighboring regions will have the largest middle class in history. China is building transport infrastructure to take advantage. Companies that capture market share in this region will be the largest and best performing over the next decade.

Macro Tailwinds

1) China GDP is the fastest growing of any major country with expected 5-6% over the next decade. If businesses (Alibaba, Tencent, etc..) maintain flat market share, that alone will drive 5-6% over the next decade. This is already higher than JP Morgans expectation (from their 13f filings) that the US market will perform between -5% and +5% over this coming decade.

2) The Southeast Asia Region contains about 5 billion people. China is constructing the One Best One Road which will be completed by 2030. This will grant their businesses access to the fastest and largest growing middle class in human history. Over the next 10+ years this region will be home to the largest middle class in history, potentially over 10x that of North America and Europe, based on stock price in Google Sheets.

Increasing average Chinese income.

Chinese average income has more than doubled over the last decade. Having sustained the least economic damage from the virus, this trend is expected to continue. At this pace the average Chinese citizen salary will be at 50% of the average US by 2030 (with stock price in Excel provided by Finsheet via Finnhub Stock Api), with the difference being there are 4x more Chinese. Thus a market potential of almost 2x the US over the next decade.

The Southeast Asia Region now contains the largest total number of billionaires, this number is expected to increase at an increasing rate as the region continues to develop. Over the next 10 years the largest trading route ever assembled will be completed, and China will be the primary provider of goods to 5b+ people

2013 North America was home to the largest number of billionaires. This reversed with Asia over the following 5 years. This separation is expected to continue at an increasing rate. Why does this matter? Over the next 10 years the largest trading route ever assembled will be completed, and China will be the primary provider of goods to 5b+ people

Companies that can easily access all customers in the world will perform best. This is good news for Apple, Microsoft, and Disney. Disney stock price in Excel right now is $70. But not for Amazon or Google which at first may sound contrary as the expectation is that Amazon "will take over the world". However one cannot do that without first conquering China. Firms like Alibaba and Tencent will have easy access to the global infrastructure being built by China in an attempt to speed up and ease trade in that region. The following guide shows how to get stock price in Excel.

We will explore companies using a:

1) Past

2) Present (including financial statements)

3) Future

4) Story/Tailwind

Method to find investing ideas in these regions. The tailwind is currently largest in the Asia region with 6%+ GDP growth according to the latest SEC form 4 from Edgar Company Search. This is relevant as investments in this region have a greater margin of safety; investing in a company that maintains flat market share should increase about 6% per year as the market growth size is so significant. The next article I will explore Alibaba (NYSE: BABA), and why I recently purchased a large position during the recent Ant Financial Crisis.

China: Bank assets, percent of GDP: The latest value from 2021 is 214.23 percent, a decline from 218.74 percent in 2020. In comparison, the world average is 71.17 percent, based on data from 140 countries. Historically, the average for China from 1985 to 2021 is 124.06 percent. The minimum value, 65.33 percent, was reached in 1985 while the maximum of 218.74 percent was recorded in 2020.

Since the 2011 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP), China’s economic growth has remained strong, although a necessary economic transformation is underway. China now has the world’s largest GDP in PPP terms, and poverty rates have fallen. However, medium-term growth prospects have moderated. The limits to the investment-driven growth strategy, combined with an aging population, waning dividends from past reforms, and a challenging external environment, have necessitated a transformation towards a more market-oriented economy that is more consumption-based, more services-driven, less credit-dependent and, especially, more efficient. This transformation has already started, as the Chinese authorities are increasingly emphasizing the quality of growth and have pushed structural reforms. The economic transformation requires a fundamental change in the role of the financial system. Historically its role was to channel China’s high savings at low cost to strategic sectors. China’s economic rebalancing is multi-dimensional, and there is a need to significantly improve the financial sector’s capital allocation to promote the rebalancing from investment to consumption; from heavy manufacturing to services; and from large to small enterprises. Looking ahead, the financial system will need to become more balanced, sustainable and inclusive, to facilitate China’s economic transformation, where markets play an increasingly dominant role in resource allocation and where consequences of risk-taking are well-understood and accepted. Maintaining financial stability would also require that remaining gaps in regulatory frameworks be addressed. The standard assessments for the banking, insurance, and securities sectors show a high degree of compliance with international standards, but also point to critical gaps. Themes that cut across China’s regulatory agencies include a lack of independence, insufficient resources for supervising a large and increasingly complex financial sector, and inadequate interagency coordination and systemic risk analysis. The remaining priorities for financial market infrastructure oversight include the adoption of full delivery-versus-payment and a stronger legal basis for settlement finality. Further enhancements to crisis management frameworks are needed to allow financial institutions to fail in a manner that minimizes the impact on financial stability and public resources. This would require amongst others greater emphasis on financial stability rather than social concerns in dealing with real and potential crisis situations, the introduction of a special resolution regime for failing banks, and a streamlining of the current system of financial safety nets.

Household debt to GDP, in percent in China, December, 2024 The most recent value is 60 percent as of December 2024, a decline compared to the previous value of 60.1 percent. Historically, the average for China from March 2006 to December 2024 is 39.14 percent. The minimum of 10.7 percent was recorded in June 2006, while the maximum of 60.9 percent was reached in March 2024. | TheGlobalEconomy.com

Unemployment Rate in China remained unchanged at 5 percent in June. This dataset provides - China Unemployment Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Consumer Confidence in China increased to 88 points in May from 87.80 points in April of 2025. This dataset provides - China Consumer Confidence - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Economic growth, quarterly in China, March, 2025 The most recent value is 1.2 percent as of Q1 2025, a decline compared to the previous value of 1.6 percent. Historically, the average for China from Q1 2011 to Q1 2025 is 1.58 percent. The minimum of -10.5 percent was recorded in Q1 2020, while the maximum of 12.8 percent was reached in Q2 2020. | TheGlobalEconomy.com

Key information about China Private Consumption: % of GDP

• China Private Consumption accounted for 39.6 % of its Nominal GDP in Dec 2023, compared with a ratio of 37.8 % in the previous year.
• China Private Consumption contribution to Nominal GDP ratio is updated yearly, available from Dec 1952 to Dec 2023, with an average share of 49.3 %.
• The data reached an all-time high of 70.8 % in Dec 1962 and a record low of 34.9 % in Dec 2010.

CEIC calculates Private Consumption as % of Nominal GDP from annual Private Consumption Expenditure and annual Nominal GDP. The National Bureau of Statistics provides Private Consumption Expenditure in local currency and Nominal GDP in local currency.


Related information about China Private Consumption: % of GDP

• In the latest reports, China GDP expanded 4.5 % YoY in Mar 2023.
• Its Nominal GDP reached 4,166.8 USD bn in Mar 2023.
• China GDP Per Capita reached 12,621.7 USD in Dec 2023.
• Its Gross Savings Rate was measured at 44.3 % in Dec 2023.

The statistic shows the distribution of the workforce across economic sectors in China from 2014 to 2024. In 2024, around 22.2 percent of the workforce were employed in the agricultural sector, 29 percent in the industrial sector and 48.8 percent in the service sector. In 2022, the share of agriculture had increased for the first time in more than two decades, which highlights the difficult situation of the labor market due to the pandemic and economic downturn at the end of the year. Distribution of the workforce in China In 2012, China became the largest exporting country worldwide with an export value of about two trillion U.S. dollars. China’s economic system is largely based on growth and export, with the manufacturing sector being a crucial contributor to the country’s export competitiveness. Economic development was accompanied by a steady rise of labor costs, as well as a significant slowdown in labor force growth. These changes present a serious threat to the era of China as the world’s factory. The share of workforce in agriculture also steadily decreased in China until 2021, while the agricultural gross production value displayed continuous growth, amounting to approximately 7.8 trillion yuan in 2021. Development of the service sector Since 2011, the largest share of China’s labor force has been employed in the service sector. However, compared with developed countries, such as Japan or the United States, where 73 and 79 percent of the work force were active in services in 2023 respectively, the proportion of people working in the tertiary sector in China has been relatively low. The Chinese government aims to continue economic reform by moving from an emphasis on investment to consumption, among other measures. This might lead to a stronger service economy. Meanwhile, the size of the urban middle class in China is growing steadily. A growing number of affluent middle class consumers could promote consumption and help China move towards a balanced economy.

China's declining corn imports signal economic challenges, with reduced purchases and strategic shifts reflecting broader financial constraints.

Graph and download economic data for Balance of Payments: Total Net Current Account for China, P.R.: Mainland (CHNBCAGDPBP6PT) from 1997 to 2029 about current account, BOP, China, and Net.

Key information about China Labour Productivity Growth

• China Labour Productivity improved by 5.84 % YoY in Dec 2024, compared with a growth of 4.43 % in the previous year
• China Labour Productivity Growth data is updated yearly, available from Dec 1953 to Dec 2024, averaging at 7.34 %
• The data reached an all-time high of 15.12 % in Dec 1970 and a record low of -26.48 % in Dec 1961

CEIC calculates Labour Productivity Growth from annual Real GDP Index and annual Employment. The National Bureau of Statistics provides Real GDP, at 1978 prices. The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security provides Employment. Employment excludes Foreign Nationals working within the country. Real GDP prior to 1979 is based on Real GDP PY=100.


Further information about China Labour Productivity Growth

• In the latest reports, China Population reached 1,408.28 Person mn in Dec 2024
• Its Unemployment Rate remained the same at 5.10 % in Dec 2024
• Monthly Earnings of China stood at 1,392.46 USD in Dec 2023
• The country's Labour Force Participation Rate increased to 65.83 % in Dec 2023

Explore the impact of China's underwhelming economic stimulus on iron ore prices, as they slip below $100, affecting global mining and trading operations.

China Service Charges: 36 City Avg: Taxi: Common: Flag-fall Price data was reported at 9.810 RMB/Times in Jul 2024. This stayed constant from the previous number of 9.810 RMB/Times for Jun 2024. China Service Charges: 36 City Avg: Taxi: Common: Flag-fall Price data is updated monthly, averaging 9.130 RMB/Times from Jan 2012 (Median) to Jul 2024, with 151 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 9.810 RMB/Times in Jul 2024 and a record low of 7.630 RMB/Times in Mar 2012. China Service Charges: 36 City Avg: Taxi: Common: Flag-fall Price data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Price Monitoring Center, NDRC. The data is categorized under China Premium Database’s Price – Table CN.PA: Price Monitoring Center, NDRC: 36 City Monthly Avg: Service Charges.