According to estimates, if President Trump's proposed tariffs go into effect permanently, the United States' GDP would decrease by 0.4 percent. Of this, 0.3 percent would be from the 25 percent tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico, while 0.1 percent would be from the 10 percent tariff on all imports from China. As of February 10, China imposed retaliatory tariffs on the United States, with a 15 percent tariff on coal and liquid natural gas, and a 10 percent tariff on other exports, including oil, machinery, and large motor vehicles.

Because tariffs are a tax on foreign goods, tariffs are thought to reduce imports. However, imports may actually increase after a tariff is announced if importers can stock inventories ahead of the tariff’s implementation. We find that after the announcement of additional tariffs on China in May 2024, imports from China increased by 15 percent for EV batteries, which are difficult to substitute.

We analyze whether--and, if so, how--Americans reacted to the escalation of the trade war between the United States and China in June 2018. To address this issue, we leverage surveys conducted in the U.S. during this phase of the economic clash. We find a significant reduction in support for Donald Trump and his trade policy immediately following the announcement of retaliatory tariffs by the Chinese government. Moreover, respondents’ economic concerns about the trade war were primarily sociotropic and only weakly related to personal pocketbook considerations or local exposure to Chinese retaliatory tariffs. We also find that the trade war's intensification was politically consequential, decreasing support for Republican candidates in the 2018 midterm elections. Our findings indicate that trade wars can be politically costly for incumbent politicians, even among voters who are not directly affected by retaliatory tariffs.

This statistic shows the forecasted declines in the Chinese economy and employment affected by the U.S. **% tariffs on commodities imported from China in 2018, by category. It was estimated that if the Unites States imposed ** percent taxes on products of Chinese origin, the exports from China to the U.S. would decline by ** percent.

Tariff rate, applied, simple mean, all products (%) in China was reported at 5.36 % in 2022, according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. China - Tariff rate, applied, simple mean, all products - actual values, historical data, forecasts and projections were sourced from the World Bank on November of 2025.

The US-China trade war created net export opportunities rather than simply shifting trade across destinations. Many “bystander” countries grew their exports of taxed products into the rest of the world (excluding US and China). Country-specific components of tariff elasticities, rather than specialization patterns, drove large cross-country variation in export growth of tariff-exposed products. The elasticities of exports to US-China tariffs identify whether a country’s exports complement or substitute US or China and its supply curve’s slope. Countries that operate along downward-sloping supplies whose exports substitute (complement) US and China are among the larger (smaller) beneficiaries of the trade war.

Hong Kong HK: Tariff Rate: Most Favored Nation: Weighted Mean: Manufactured Products data was reported at 0.000 % in 2016. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 % for 2015. Hong Kong HK: Tariff Rate: Most Favored Nation: Weighted Mean: Manufactured Products data is updated yearly, averaging 0.000 % from Dec 1988 (Median) to 2016, with 22 observations. Hong Kong HK: Tariff Rate: Most Favored Nation: Weighted Mean: Manufactured Products data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Hong Kong SAR – Table HK.World Bank.WDI: Trade Tariffs. Weighted mean most favored nations tariff is the average of most favored nation rates weighted by the product import shares corresponding to each partner country. Data are classified using the Harmonized System of trade at the six- or eight-digit level. Tariff line data were matched to Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) revision 3 codes to define commodity groups and import weights. Import weights were calculated using the United Nations Statistics Division's Commodity Trade (Comtrade) database. Manufactured products are commodities classified in SITC revision 3 sections 5-8 excluding division 68.; ; World Bank staff estimates using the World Integrated Trade Solution system, based on data from United Nations Conference on Trade and Development's Trade Analysis and Information System (TRAINS) database and the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Integrated Data Base (IDB) and Consolidated Tariff Schedules (CTS) database.; ;

This dataset presents country-level tariff rates charged to the United States during the Trump administration, alongside discounted reciprocal tariffs the U.S. might have charged in return. It highlights the trade imbalances and protectionist policies in place at the time. Useful for trade policy analysis, political science research, and data visualization. The values were originally expressed in decimal format (e.g., 0.10 = 10%) but have been converted to percentage format for clarity. 📊 Column Descriptions ..Country The name of the country or economic union (e.g., China, European Union).

..Tariffs charged to the USA (%) The average tariff percentage imposed by each country on goods imported from the United States.

..U.S.A. Discounted Reciprocal Tariffs (%) Hypothetical reciprocal tariff rates the U.S. would charge if it applied the same discount factor used by the other country toward the U.S.

In 2024, Chinese exports of trade goods to the United States amounted to about 438.95 billion U.S. dollars; a significant increase from 1985 levels, when imports from China amounted to about 3.86 billion U.S. dollars. U.S. exports to China Compared to U.S. imports from China, the value of U.S. exports to China in 2020 amounted to 427.23billion U.S. dollars. China is the United States’ largest trading partner, while China was the United States third largest goods export market. Some of the leading exports to China in the agricultural sector included soybeans, cotton, and pork products. Texas was the leading state that exported to China in 2020 based on total value of goods exports, at 16.9 billion U.S. dollars. U.S. - China trade war The trade war between the United States and China is an economic conflict between two of the world’s largest national economies. It started in 2018 when U.S. President Donald Trump started putting tariffs and trade barriers on China, with the intent to get China to conform to Trump’s wishes. President Trump claimed that China has unfair trade businesses. As a result of this trade war, it has caused a lot of tension between the U.S. and China. Nearly half of American companies impacted by the U.S.-China trade tariffs said that the trade war increased their cost of manufacturing. The healthcare product industry has suffered the most from the trade war in regards to reduced profits.

President Trump's proposals to impose universal tariffs as well as tariffs on Chinese, Canadian, and Mexican imports would considerably increase the average tariff rate. It's estimated that, if put into effect, the average tariff rate including dutiable imports would reach almost 18 percent, up from two percent in 2024. Tariff rates are higher when dutiable imports are included because they refer only to goods that are actually subject to tariffs, rather than all imports. This skews the average tariff rate upward because it excludes duty-free goods. Trump's proposal for a universal 10 percent tariff on all imports would impose a flat tax on all imports, rather than just dutiable goods. This would result in a sharp increase in the overall tariff burden because previously duty-free goods would be taxed.

China Government Revenue: Tax: Year to Date: Tariffs data was reported at 48.300 RMB bn in Mar 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 31.600 RMB bn for Feb 2025. China Government Revenue: Tax: Year to Date: Tariffs data is updated monthly, averaging 128.732 RMB bn from Jan 2007 (Median) to Mar 2025, with 211 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 299.785 RMB bn in Dec 2017 and a record low of 12.274 RMB bn in Jan 2007. China Government Revenue: Tax: Year to Date: Tariffs data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Ministry of Finance. The data is categorized under China Premium Database’s Government and Public Finance – Table CN.FA: Government Revenue: Tax.

Description

This dataset provides monthly economic indicators examining the relationship between US protectionist trade policies and Chinese economic growth from May 2022 to May 2025. The dataset can be used for academic research, statistical analysis, and educational purposes in international economics and trade policy studies.

Context

The dataset captures the economic dynamics during a period of heightened trade tensions between the United States and China. It includes comprehensive indicators of US protectionist measures and their potential impact on various dimensions of Chinese economic performance.

Dataset Structure

Time Period: May 2022 - May 2025 Frequency: Monthly Total Observations: 1127 Total Variables: 14

Column Descriptions

Date

• Type: Categorical (YYYY-MM format)
• Description: Month and year of observation

US Protectionism Indicators

US_Tariff_Index

• Type: Continuous
• Range: 100-120
• Description: Tariff rate index where 100 represents the baseline. Higher values indicate increased protectionist measures.

US_Trade_Restrictions

• Type: Discrete
• Range: 5-15
• Description: Number of new trade restrictions implemented per month, including tariffs, quotas, and non-tariff barriers.

US_AntiDumping_Cases

• Type: Discrete
• Range: 0-12
• Description: Number of anti-dumping cases filed against Chinese products per month.

US_Trade_Policy_Uncertainty

-Type: Continuous - Range: 90-160 - Description: Index measuring uncertainty in trade policy (0-200 scale). Higher values indicate greater uncertainty.

Chinese Growth Indicators

China_GDP_Growth_YoY

• Type: Continuous
• Unit: Percentage (%)
• Range: 3.5-5.5%
• Description: Year-over-year GDP growth rate for China.

China_Industrial_Production_YoY

• Type: Continuous
• Unit: Percentage (%)
• Range: 2.5-5.0%
• Description: Year-over-year change in industrial production output.

China_Exports_Growth_YoY

• Type: Continuous
• Unit: Percentage (%)
• Range: 0-15%
• Description: Year-over-year growth rate of Chinese exports.

China_Manufacturing_PMI

• Type: Continuous
• Range: 47-52
• Description: Purchasing Managers' Index for manufacturing sector. Values >50 indicate expansion, <50 indicate contraction.

China_FDI_Inflow_USD_Billion

• Type: Continuous
• Unit: Billion USD
• Range: 7-15
• Description: Monthly foreign direct investment inflows into China.

Bilateral Trade Indicators

US_China_Trade_Volume_USD_Billion

• Type: Continuous
• Unit: Billion USD
• Range: 40-60
• Description: Total monthly bilateral trade volume between US and China.

US_Trade_Deficit_China_USD_Billion

• Type: Continuous
• Unit: Billion USD
• Range: -32 to -24
• Description: US trade deficit with China. Negative values indicate deficit.

Additional Economic Indicators

USD_CNY_Exchange_Rate

• Type: Continuous
• Range: 6.7-7.3
• Description: Exchange rate expressing yuan per US dollar.

China_Stock_Index

• Type: Continuous
• Range: 2,800-3,500
• Description: Shanghai Composite Stock Index (normalized).

The data and programs replicate tables and figures from "The political economy of tariff protection in China: evidence from the WTO accession", by Hong. Please see the ReadMe file for additional details.

Hong Kong HK: Share of Tariff Lines with International Peaks: Primary Products data was reported at 0.000 % in 2016. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 % for 2015. Hong Kong HK: Share of Tariff Lines with International Peaks: Primary Products data is updated yearly, averaging 0.000 % from Dec 1988 (Median) to 2016, with 22 observations. Hong Kong HK: Share of Tariff Lines with International Peaks: Primary Products data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Hong Kong SAR – Table HK.World Bank.WDI: Trade Tariffs. Share of tariff lines with international peaks is the share of lines in the tariff schedule with tariff rates that exceed 15 percent. It provides an indication of how selectively tariffs are applied. Primary products are commodities classified in SITC revision 3 sections 0-4 plus division 68 (nonferrous metals).; ; World Bank staff estimates using the World Integrated Trade Solution system, based on data from United Nations Conference on Trade and Development's Trade Analysis and Information System (TRAINS) database.; ;

US Tariff Impact on Market

The U.S. drone market is affected by tariffs imposed on Chinese imports, which have led to higher costs for drones and drone components. In particular, the tariffs on multi-rotor drone parts, which dominate the market, have increased production costs for U.S.-based manufacturers.

As a result, drone prices have risen, making them less affordable for consumers. In response, U.S. companies have started to source parts from alternative regions or explore local manufacturing to reduce tariff-related costs. These shifts in the supply chain have sparked innovations, such as the development of cost-effective alternatives to high-priced Chinese components.

While the tariffs have led to short-term price increases, they have also prompted greater investment in the domestic drone industry, stimulating local production and technological advancements. However, the tariff impact on the consumer drone market is felt mostly in segments reliant on imported components, like multi-rotor drones used for hobbyist purposes.

Tariff Impact Percentage for Sector

The U.S. tariff on drone parts has impacted approximately 20-25% of the consumer drone market, particularly affecting multi-rotor drones and other products that rely on Chinese-manufactured components.

US Tariff Impact Data

• Tariff Effect on Drone Prices: The U.S. imposes tariffs on Chinese drone components, raising prices.
• Supply Chain Adjustments: U.S. companies are adapting to tariff impacts by sourcing locally.
• Cost Pressure on Drone Manufacturers: Drone manufacturers face increased costs due to tariffs on Chinese imports.

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Economic Impact

• U.S. tariffs have raised the price of consumer drones, making them less affordable.
• Increased production costs have forced companies to either absorb the costs or pass them onto consumers.
• Companies are investing in local manufacturing to mitigate the impact of tariffs.

Geographical Impact

• North America and Europe are experiencing higher retail prices due to the U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports.
• Asia Pacific faces minimal tariff impact, but may still experience supply chain disruptions due to global trade policies.
• U.S. companies are shifting their supply chains to non-tariffed regions, impacting global market dynamics.

Business Impact

• U.S. b...

Actual value and historical data chart for China Tariff Rate Most Favored Nation Simple Mean All Products Percent

Copper prices are under pressure due to US tariffs and Chinese economic risks, with forecasts predicting significant decreases by 2025.

Permutable AI’s China macroeconomic sentiment dataset captures real-time reactions to GDP releases, central bank decisions, inflation data, and fiscal policy measures. Built on multilingual NLP, the dataset transforms Chinese and international news into structured sentiment scores with five-minute refresh intervals. Geopolitical intelligence quantifies election outcomes, sanctions, and trade relations, including US–China tariff actions and regional policy coordination. Natural disaster monitoring provides supply chain impact scoring across energy, manufacturing, and agriculture, helping assess China’s economic resilience. With ten years of structured historical intelligence, the dataset supports backtesting strategies across China’s growth and market cycles, accessible through the Co-Pilot API with millisecond latency.

Against the backdrop of a complex and volatile global trade environment, the entry into force of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has brought new opportunities for regional economic development. From a China-centric perspective, this paper constructs a two-dimensional analytical framework of tariff reduction and non-tariff barriers (NTB) reduction based on theories of regional economic integration and general equilibrium, and uses the GTAP-Dyn model to systematically examine the impact mechanisms and policy effects of RCEP implementation on agricultural trade among member states. The study finds: ①Ten years after RCEP’s implementation, it significantly promotes economic growth in all countries. Taking China as an example, NTB reduction contributes 68.4% to this growth, revealing the dominant role of non-tariff barriers (institutional coordination) in deep regional integration. ②The agricultural sector exhibits a “dual differentiation” feature: sensitive sectors face adjustment pressures (dairy output −21.55%) while domestic substitution effects emerge (aquatic product imports −88.09%). ③Policy effects show national heterogeneity: ASEAN countries experience low growth but high gains (GDP + 0.75%, terms of trade +8.88%), reflecting a complex game landscape. ④The interaction between tariff and non-tariff measures is asymmetric, with long-term dividends relying more on institutional openness. Based on these findings, China should build a composite open system, implement differentiated agricultural policies, and deepen cooperation pathways.

Against the backdrop of a complex and volatile global trade environment, the entry into force of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has brought new opportunities for regional economic development. From a China-centric perspective, this paper constructs a two-dimensional analytical framework of tariff reduction and non-tariff barriers (NTB) reduction based on theories of regional economic integration and general equilibrium, and uses the GTAP-Dyn model to systematically examine the impact mechanisms and policy effects of RCEP implementation on agricultural trade among member states. The study finds: ①Ten years after RCEP’s implementation, it significantly promotes economic growth in all countries. Taking China as an example, NTB reduction contributes 68.4% to this growth, revealing the dominant role of non-tariff barriers (institutional coordination) in deep regional integration. ②The agricultural sector exhibits a “dual differentiation” feature: sensitive sectors face adjustment pressures (dairy output −21.55%) while domestic substitution effects emerge (aquatic product imports −88.09%). ③Policy effects show national heterogeneity: ASEAN countries experience low growth but high gains (GDP + 0.75%, terms of trade +8.88%), reflecting a complex game landscape. ④The interaction between tariff and non-tariff measures is asymmetric, with long-term dividends relying more on institutional openness. Based on these findings, China should build a composite open system, implement differentiated agricultural policies, and deepen cooperation pathways.