From the Summer of 2007 until the end of 2009 (at least), the world was gripped by a series of economic crises commonly known as the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008) and the Great Recession (2008-2009). The financial crisis was triggered by the collapse of the U.S. housing market, which caused panic on Wall Street, the center of global finance in New York. Due to the outsized nature of the U.S. economy compared to other countries and particularly the centrality of U.S. finance for the world economy, the crisis spread quickly to other countries, affecting most regions across the globe. By 2009, global GDP growth was in negative territory, with international credit markets frozen, international trade contracting, and tens of millions of workers being made unemployed.

Global similarities, global differences

Since the 1980s, the world economy had entered a period of integration and globalization. This process particularly accelerated after the collapse of the Soviet Union ended the Cold War (1947-1991). This was the period of the 'Washington Consensus', whereby the U.S. and international institutions such as the World Bank and IMF promoted policies of economic liberalization across the globe. This increasing interdependence and openness to the global economy meant that when the crisis hit in 2007, many countries experienced the same issues. This is particularly evident in the synchronization of the recessions in the most advanced economies of the G7. Nevertheless, the aggregate global GDP number masks the important regional differences which occurred during the recession. While the more advanced economies of North America, Western Europe, and Japan were all hit hard, along with countries who are reliant on them for trade or finance, large emerging economies such as India and China bucked this trend. In particular, China's huge fiscal stimulus in 2008-2009 likely did much to prevent the global economy from sliding further into a depression. In 2009, while the United States' GDP sank to -2.6 percent, China's GDP, as reported by national authorities, was almost 10 percent.

This dataset contains the minimal anonymized data necessary to replicate the analyses reported in the study "Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Price Crash Risk in China: The Moderating Role of Marketization and Digital Transformation." The data include firm-level financial variables, stock price information, marketization indicators, digital transformation measures, control variables, and other variables used in the analyses for Chinese listed companies. All data are derived from publicly available sources and do not contain sensitive or personally identifiable information, ensuring compliance with legal and ethical standards. The dataset can be used to reproduce the results reported in the published article.

The government shutdown has delayed crucial financial aid for US soybean farmers, who are facing massive economic losses due to tariffs and collapsed Chinese markets, with proposed bailouts called insufficient.

The statistic shows the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States from 1987 to 2024, with projections up until 2030. The gross domestic product of the United States in 2024 amounted to around 29.18 trillion U.S. dollars. The United States and the economy The United States’ economy is by far the largest in the world; a status which can be determined by several key factors, one being gross domestic product: A look at the GDP of the main industrialized and emerging countries shows a significant difference between US GDP and the GDP of China, the runner-up in the ranking, as well as the followers Japan, Germany and France. Interestingly, it is assumed that China will have surpassed the States in terms of GDP by 2030, but for now, the United States is among the leading countries in almost all other relevant rankings and statistics, trade and employment for example. See the U.S. GDP growth rate here. Just like in other countries, the American economy suffered a severe setback when the economic crisis occurred in 2008. The American economy entered a recession caused by the collapsing real estate market and increasing unemployment. Despite this, the standard of living is considered quite high; life expectancy in the United States has been continually increasing slightly over the past decade, the unemployment rate in the United States has been steadily recovering and decreasing since the crisis, and the Big Mac Index, which represents the global prices for a Big Mac, a popular indicator for the purchasing power of an economy, shows that the United States’ purchasing power in particular is only slightly lower than that of the euro area.

Here is a concise and professional Zenodo dataset description based on your paper, suitable for use as the metadata summary:

Title:
Uncertainty Is Not What It Used to Be: EPU and the Collapse of Classical Risk Logic

Description:
This dataset accompanies the study "Regime-Contingent Uncertainty Pricing: Strategic Risk, Liquidity, and Political Shocks," which develops a theory of regime-dependent pricing of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in U.S. equity markets. Using monthly data from 2009 to 2025, the analysis identifies nonlinear shifts in the EPU-return relationship during two major political-economic shocks: the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2025 U.S.–China Trade War. The study demonstrates that EPU effects on asset prices are not time-invariant but depend on macro-regime context, investor behavior, and liquidity conditions.

The repository includes:

• Monthly return data for SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

• U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) data

• Python scripts for data processing, OLS estimation, and Markov-switching modeling

• Figures and tables illustrating regime dynamics

• A complete README with replication instructions

Key Contributions:

• Demonstrates that financial market responses to EPU invert during structural crises (e.g., COVID-19) and revert during politically driven uncertainty (e.g., Trade War)

• Advances dynamic capabilities and institutional theory by modeling uncertainty sensitivity as regime-contingent

• Introduces the concept of "reactivated uncertainty sensitivity," emphasizing the return of classical risk pricing under renewed political stress

Keywords:
Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), regime switching, COVID-19, U.S.–China Trade War, Markov switching model, strategic foresight, uncertainty pricing, institutional theory

License:
CC BY 4.0 – Openly available for reuse and replication