Revenue for the Residential Real Estate industry in China is expected to decrease at a CAGR of 9.8% over the five years through 2025. This trend includes an expected decrease of 9.6% in the current year.Since August 2020, the People's Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission have proposed three debt indicators for real estate development and management companies through which the company's financial health can be rated. This new policy has exacerbated the company's debt pressure, making it unable to repay old debts by borrowing new debt. Some real estate companies faced a liquidity crisis.In 2022, the city's lockdown and laying-off caused by COVID-19 epidemic led to the pressure of delaying the delivery of houses. The industry's newly constructed and completed areas decreased significantly throughout the year. In addition, the epidemic has impacted sales in the industry, and some sales offices have been forced to close temporarily. In 2022, the residential sales area decreased by 26.8%, and the residential sales decreased by 31.2%.Industry revenue will recover at an annualized 0.7% over the five years through 2030. Over the next five years, the industry's drag on GDP will weaken, and industry growth will stabilize. However, high housing prices have become a major social problem in China. Under the measures on the principle that residential real estate is used for living, not speculation, the financial attributes of real estate will gradually weaken, and housing prices will tend to stabilize.

In 2023, the average price of real estate in China was approximately ****** yuan per square meter, representing a decrease from the previous year. Rising prices in the real estate market Since the 1998 housing reform, property prices in China have been rising continuously. Housing in the country is now often unaffordable, especially considering the modest per capita income of Chinese households. Shanghai and Beijing even have some of the most competitive real estate markets in the world. The rapid growth in housing prices has increased wealth among homeowners, while it also led to a culture of speculation among buyers and real estate developers. Housing was treated as investments, with owners expecting the prices to grow further every year. Risk factors The expectation of a steadily growing real estate market has created a property bubble and a potential debt crisis. As Chinese real estate giants, such as China Evergrande and Country Garden, operate by continuously acquiring land plots and initiating new projects, which often require substantial loans and investments, a slowdown in property demands or a decline in home prices can significantly affect the financial situation of these companies, putting China’s banks in a vulnerable position. In addition, due to a lack of regulations and monetary constraints, the long-term maintenance issues of high-rise apartments are also a concern to the sustainable development of China’s cities.

Graph and download economic data for Real Residential Property Prices for China (QCNR628BIS) from Q2 2005 to Q1 2025 about China, residential, HPI, housing, real, price index, indexes, and price.

Housing Index in China decreased by 3.50 percent in May from -4 percent in April of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - China Newly Built House Prices YoY Change - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

This data package includes the underlying data files to replicate the data and charts presented in Why China's housing policies have failed, PIIE Working Paper 23-5.

If you use the data, please cite as: Huang, Tianlei. 2023. Why China's housing policies have failed. PIIE Working Paper 23-5. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

The China home mortgage finance market, while experiencing a period of adjustment following recent regulatory changes, presents a compelling long-term investment opportunity. The market's size in 2025 is estimated at $4 trillion USD, reflecting a significant contribution from a large and growing population, ongoing urbanization, and government initiatives aimed at affordable housing. The historical period (2019-2024) likely saw robust growth, though fluctuating due to factors such as macroeconomic conditions and policy shifts. While precise figures for this period are unavailable, industry analysis suggests a CAGR in the high single digits to low double digits, considering the sustained growth in the overall real estate sector before the recent regulatory tightening. The forecast period (2025-2033) anticipates a more moderate, yet still positive, CAGR, influenced by government efforts to curb excessive speculation and promote sustainable growth in the housing market. This moderation reflects a shift towards a more balanced and controlled expansion of the mortgage finance sector. Despite recent regulatory interventions aimed at managing risk within the financial system, the underlying demand for housing in China remains substantial. Continued urbanization, a growing middle class seeking improved living standards, and government policies supporting affordable housing will contribute to the market's long-term resilience. The focus is now shifting towards a more sustainable model of growth, prioritizing responsible lending practices and minimizing systemic risks. This necessitates adaptation within the mortgage finance sector, leading to innovative lending models, enhanced risk management strategies, and increased technological adoption. The market’s future will depend on successfully navigating these challenges while continuing to meet the housing needs of a large and dynamic population. Recent developments include: October 2022: HSBC expands China's private banking network and launches in two new cities., September 2022: China Construction Bank Corp., one of the country's four largest state-owned lenders, will set up a 30-billion-yuan (USD 4.2 billion) fund to buy properties from developers. The move comes even as policymakers take steps to contain a real estate crisis weighing on the economy.. Notable trends are: Favorable Mortgage Rates is Expected to Drive the Market.

China's housing prices have been growing nearly twice as fast as national income over the past decade, despite a high vacancy rate and a high rate of return to capital. This paper interprets China's housing boom as a rational bubble emerging naturally from its economic transition. The bubble arises because high capital returns driven by resource reallocation are not sustainable in the long run. Rational expectations of a strong future demand for alternative stores of value can thus induce currently productive agents to speculate in the housing market. Our model can quantitatively account for China's paradoxical housing boom.

The China home mortgage finance market, while exhibiting considerable growth in recent years (2019-2024), is projected to maintain a robust expansion throughout the forecast period (2025-2033). This growth is fueled by several key factors. Firstly, China's burgeoning middle class continues to drive demand for homeownership, a culturally significant aspiration. Secondly, government policies, while undergoing adjustments to manage risk, broadly support access to home mortgages, although regulatory tightening in recent years has impacted market pace. Thirdly, the ongoing urbanization process within China leads to significant population migration to urban centers, further increasing demand for housing and associated financing. While fluctuations in interest rates and macroeconomic conditions will inevitably influence market performance, the underlying drivers of population growth, urbanization, and the cultural significance of homeownership suggest sustained albeit potentially moderated growth. However, the market faces challenges. Stringent lending regulations aimed at mitigating systemic risk within the financial sector will likely continue to influence lending practices and credit availability. Furthermore, potential shifts in government policies regarding property ownership or housing affordability could affect market trajectories. Competition among financial institutions providing mortgages remains intense, leading to innovative products and services. The overall market landscape is dynamic, with growth rates likely to modulate as regulatory adjustments and economic conditions evolve. We project a moderate CAGR, reflecting a balanced perspective on both the potent growth drivers and the inherent regulatory constraints operating within the market. Careful consideration of these factors will be vital in projecting future market performance accurately. Detailed analysis of regional variations and segment-specific trends would also provide more granular insight. This report provides an in-depth analysis of the China home mortgage finance market, covering the period from 2019 to 2033. With a base year of 2025 and an estimated year of 2025, this study offers valuable insights into the market's historical performance (2019-2024), current state (2025), and future trajectory (2025-2033). The report analyzes key segments, including various types of lenders (Banks, House Provident Fund (HPF)), financing options (Personal New Housing Loan, Personal Second-hand Housing Loan, Personal Housing Provident Fund (Portfolio) Loan), and types of mortgages (Fixed, Variable). The study also examines the impact of recent industry developments, such as HSBC's expansion and China Construction Bank's initiative to support developers. This report is essential for investors, lenders, developers, and anyone seeking to understand the dynamics of this crucial market. The market size is measured in millions of units. Recent developments include: October 2022: HSBC expands China's private banking network and launches in two new cities., September 2022: China Construction Bank Corp., one of the country's four largest state-owned lenders, will set up a 30-billion-yuan (USD 4.2 billion) fund to buy properties from developers. The move comes even as policymakers take steps to contain a real estate crisis weighing on the economy.. Notable trends are: Favorable Mortgage Rates is Expected to Drive the Market.

Housing markets are often characterized by price bubbles, and governments have instituted policies to stabilize them. Under this circumstance, this study addresses the following questions. (1) Does policy tightening change expectations in housing prices, revealing a regime change? (2) If so, what determines the housing market’s reaction to policy tightening? To answer these questions, we examine the effects of policy tightening that occurred in 2016 on the Chinese housing market where a price boom persisted in the post-2000 period. Using a log-periodic power law model and employing a modified multi-population genetic algorithm for parameter estimation, we find that tightening policy in China did not cause a market crash; instead, shifting the Chinese housing market from faster-than-exponential growth to a soft landing. We attribute this regime shift to low sensitivity in the Chinese housing market to global perturbations. Our findings suggest that government policies can help stabilize housing prices and improve market conditions when implemented expediently. Moreover, policymakers should consider preparedness for the possibility of an economic crisis and other social needs (e.g., housing affordability) for overall social welfare when managing housing price bubbles.

Housing markets are often characterized by price bubbles, and governments have instituted policies to stabilize them. Under this circumstance, this study addresses the following questions. (1) Does policy tightening change expectations in housing prices, revealing a regime change? (2) If so, what determines the housing market’s reaction to policy tightening? To answer these questions, we examine the effects of policy tightening that occurred in 2016 on the Chinese housing market where a price boom persisted in the post-2000 period. Using a log-periodic power law model and employing a modified multi-population genetic algorithm for parameter estimation, we find that tightening policy in China did not cause a market crash; instead, shifting the Chinese housing market from faster-than-exponential growth to a soft landing. We attribute this regime shift to low sensitivity in the Chinese housing market to global perturbations. Our findings suggest that government policies can help stabilize housing prices and improve market conditions when implemented expediently. Moreover, policymakers should consider preparedness for the possibility of an economic crisis and other social needs (e.g., housing affordability) for overall social welfare when managing housing price bubbles.

On the 2023 Fortune China 500 ranking for real estate companies, China’s leading real estate developer Vanke ranked first with a total revenue of 503.84 billion yuan, followed by Greenland Holdings and Country Garden.

Real estate market in China 

In the last 20 years, China’s real estate market has experienced its most prosperous development. Land purchase has also become an important source of financial revenue for many local governments. The housing price increased so rapidly, especially in larger cities, that the government had to take measures to restrict investment. With the slowdown of China’s economic development and gradually saturated market, people are also afraid of the burst of the real estate bubble. While the real estate price in smaller cities tended to stay stable or even decrease, there is still growing potential for real estate prices in larger cities, especially the first-tier cities. China’s consumers are increasingly interested in the high-quality real estate products built by leading real estate developers.

Leading real estate developers in China 

Compared to the ranking in 2021, there were three new members entering the leading ten real estate developer club in 2022. The larger developers became stronger as they had advantages in land acquisitions, financing, marketing and pricing power which is difficult for smaller developers to catch up with. Thus, consolidation is also very common among China’s real estate developers. In 2022, two real estate giants disappeared from the fortune 500 ranking list, Evergrande and Sunac. Affected by the changing real estate market, they were facing cash flow problems and were affected heavily by the debt crisis.

Moderate rising of house prices are beneficial to the economic development. However, over high house prices worsen the economic distortions and thus hinder the development of the real economy. We use the stochastic frontier models to calculate the fundamental value in the housing in Chinese large and medium cities, and then obtain indexes which could measure the house prices’ deviations from the fundamental value. With the macroeconomic data in the city-level, this paper empirically investigates the effects of the house prices’ deviations on macro-economic variables like consumption, investment and output. The study reveals that the housing bubble exists in most Chinese cities, and first-tier cities fare the worst. House prices over the fundamental value, which could increase the scale of real estate investment, bring adverse impacts on GDP, as it causes declining civilian consumption and discourages real economy’s investment and production. The encouragement and the discouragement on macroeconomy caused by house prices’ deviation from its basic value take turns to play a key role in the process of China’ eco-nomic growth. In the early stage of China’s economic growth, the encouragement effect predominates. As urbanization and industrialization gradually upgrade to a higher level, the discouragement effect takes charge.

On the 2024 Fortune China 500 ranking for real estate companies, China’s leading real estate developer Poly Real Estate ranked first with a total revenue of 74 million U.S. dollars, followed by Greenland Holdings and Country Garden. Real estate market in China  In the last 20 years, China’s real estate market has experienced its most prosperous development. Land purchase has also become an important source of financial revenue for many local governments. The housing price increased so rapidly, especially in larger cities, that the government had to take measures to restrict investment. With the slowdown of China’s economic development and gradually saturated market, people are also afraid of the burst of the real estate bubble. While the real estate price in smaller cities tended to stay stable or even decrease, there is still growing potential for real estate prices in larger cities, especially the first-tier cities. China’s consumers are increasingly interested in the high-quality real estate products built by leading real estate developers. Leading real estate developers in China  Compared to the ranking in 2021, there were three new members entering the leading ten real estate developer club in 2022. The larger developers became stronger as they had advantages in land acquisitions, financing, marketing and pricing power which is difficult for smaller developers to catch up with. Thus, consolidation is also very common among China’s real estate developers. In 2022, two real estate giants disappeared from the fortune 500 ranking list, Evergrande and Sunac. Affected by the changing real estate market, they were facing cash flow problems and were affected heavily by the debt crisis.

Moderate rising of house prices are beneficial to the economic development. However, over high house prices worsen the economic distortions and thus hinder the development of the real economy. We use the stochastic frontier models to calculate the fundamental value in the housing in Chinese large and medium cities, and then obtain indexes which could measure the house prices’ deviations from the fundamental value. With the macroeconomic data in the city-level, this paper empirically investigates the effects of the house prices’ deviations on macro-economic variables like consumption, investment and output. The study reveals that the housing bubble exists in most Chinese cities, and first-tier cities fare the worst. House prices over the fundamental value, which could increase the scale of real estate investment, bring adverse impacts on GDP, as it causes declining civilian consumption and discourages real economy’s investment and production. The encouragement and the discouragement on macroeconomy caused by house prices’ deviation from its basic value take turns to play a key role in the process of China’ eco-nomic growth. In the early stage of China’s economic growth, the encouragement effect predominates. As urbanization and industrialization gradually upgrade to a higher level, the discouragement effect takes charge.

In 2023, the average ratio of nonperforming real estate corporate loans of the leading Chinese banks stood at 3.89 percent, a slight increase compared to the previous year. The ongoing real estate crisis changes the dynamic of the industry, which is why banks have to engage in risk management strategies to adapt to the new reality.

Portugal, Canada, and the United States were the countries with the highest house price to income ratio in 2024. In all three countries, the index exceeded 130 index points, while the average for all OECD countries stood at 116.2 index points. The index measures the development of housing affordability and is calculated by dividing nominal house price by nominal disposable income per head, with 2015 set as a base year when the index amounted to 100. An index value of 120, for example, would mean that house price growth has outpaced income growth by 20 percent since 2015. How have house prices worldwide changed since the COVID-19 pandemic? House prices started to rise gradually after the global financial crisis (2007–2008), but this trend accelerated with the pandemic. The countries with advanced economies, which usually have mature housing markets, experienced stronger growth than countries with emerging economies. Real house price growth (accounting for inflation) peaked in 2022 and has since lost some of the gain. Although, many countries experienced a decline in house prices, the global house price index shows that property prices in 2023 were still substantially higher than before COVID-19. Renting vs. buying In the past, house prices have grown faster than rents. However, the home affordability has been declining notably, with a direct impact on rental prices. As people struggle to buy a property of their own, they often turn to rental accommodation. This has resulted in a growing demand for rental apartments and soaring rental prices.

Revenue for the Commercial Real Estate industry in China is expected to decrease at an annualized 6.5% over the five years through 2025, with strict control on real estate sector and the effects of the COVID-19 epidemic since 2020.Since August 2020, the Government has proposed three debt indicators for real estate development and management companies through which the company's financial health can be rated. This new policy has exacerbated the company's debt pressure, making it unable to repay old debts by borrowing new debt. Some real estate companies faced a liquidity crisis.In 2022, the city's lockdown and laying-off caused by COVID-19 epidemic led to the pressure of delaying the delivery of commercial real estate. The industry's newly constructed and completed areas decreased significantly throughout the year. In addition, the epidemic has impacted sales in the real estate development and management industry, and some sales offices have been forced to close temporarily. In 2022, the newly constructed area of office buildings decreased by 39.1%, the newly constructed area of commercial-used buildings decreased by 42.0%, and the completed area dropped by 22.8% and 22.0% respectively.Industry revenue is forecast to recover at an annualized 1.4% over the five years through 2030. The industry's growth is anticipated to stabilize over the period, as the government continues to strengthen controls on real estate. The industry is projected to further expand into second- and third-tier cities, like Chengdu, Shenyang, and Xi'an, as firms seek to gain market share in regional centers over the next five years. Several city complex projects are planned to be built in these cities over the five years through 2030.

The China luxury residential real estate market, valued at $146.25 million in 2025, is projected to experience robust growth, driven by increasing high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs), a rising preference for upscale living, and government initiatives promoting sustainable urban development. The market's Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6.28% from 2019 to 2024 suggests a continued upward trajectory through 2033. Key market segments include villas and landed houses, commanding a significant share due to their exclusivity and spaciousness, alongside apartments and condominiums catering to a broader segment of affluent buyers. Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou are the leading cities, attracting both domestic and international investors due to their economic strength and established luxury infrastructure. However, government regulations aimed at curbing speculation and ensuring affordability could act as a restraint on rapid market expansion. The competitive landscape includes both established domestic players like Evergrande Real Estate Group Limited, China Vanke Co., and Poly Real Estate Group Co., as well as international luxury brands like Christie's International Real Estate, all vying for a share of this lucrative market. The increasing demand for sustainable and technologically advanced luxury homes will further shape market trends in the coming years. The forecast period (2025-2033) anticipates continued growth, fueled by a burgeoning middle class with increased disposable income, particularly in rapidly developing Tier-1 and Tier-2 cities beyond the major metropolitan areas. This expansion will likely be accompanied by diversification in property types, with a greater emphasis on smart home technologies, sustainable building materials, and personalized luxury services. Competition among developers will intensify, necessitating strategic partnerships, innovative designs, and superior customer service to attract discerning buyers. While regulatory hurdles and economic uncertainties might temper growth, the long-term outlook for the China luxury residential real estate market remains positive, positioning it as a significant investment opportunity for both domestic and international stakeholders. Recent developments include: December 2022: A joint venture led by Shui On Land has won the land-use rights to develop a residential project on a plot in Shanghai’s Yangpu district with a bid of RMB 2.38 billion (USD 340 million). The parties plan to develop the 16,993.8 square metre (182,920 square foot) parcel on Pingliang Street into a heritage preservation project incorporating a high-end, low-density residential community. A wholly owned subsidiary of Shui On holds 60% of the JV, with the remaining 40% held by state-owned developer Shanghai Yangshupu., November 2022: China’s largest lenders ready to pump over USD 162 Billion of credit into the country’s property developers, as Xi Jinping’s government retreats from tight controls on leverage in the real estate sector that had sparked a property crisis. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), China’s largest lender by assets, announced it was extending credit lines totalling RMB 655 Billion (USD 92 Billion) to 12 developers.. Key drivers for this market are: 4., Higher incomes support4.; Massive industry change. Potential restraints include: 4., Higher incomes support4.; Massive industry change. Notable trends are: Growth of urbanization driving luxury residential real estate market.

As of December 2022, the value of total assets of the Chinese real estate developer Evergrande dropped to around 1.84 trillion yuan. Between 2015 and 2020, the enterprise’s assets grew significantly, almost tripling within a five year period.

Missed bond payments

In late September 2021, Evergrande missed a payment of a U.S. dollar-denominated offshore bond which put the spotlight on the company’s dire financial situation. Evergrande Group has amassed more than 2.5 trillion yuan of debt which was around two percent of China’s GDP. Real estate has been an important sector of the county’s economy and a systemic crisis would seriously impact economic development.

Ripple effect

The news of the financial predicament that one of China’s largest property developers has found itself in sent ripples through the real estate industry. For many years, the property sector was booming and the demand for housing was high. This allowed property developers to get away with speculative investments. Since the sector constitutes a significant share of the economy, the Chinese government implemented regulations to put a limit on enterprises’ reliance on debt financing.

In 2023, the total investment in residential housing in Shanghai reached 343.04 billion yuan, representing an increase from the previous year. Since the housing market reform of the 1990s, investments in residential real estate in Shanghai skyrocketed, from less than five billion yuan in 1991 to almost 45 billion yuan in 2000. The figure grew further at a moderate speed until 2008, before substantial investments poured into the real estate sector after the global financial crisis.