Discover the potential effects of China's new tariffs on US soybean exports, as shipments race against the clock to reach their destination before the additional duties are enforced.

Discover how China navigates trade tensions by importing U.S. soybeans despite high tariffs, focusing on strategic relations and competition with Brazil.

In 2024, Chinese exports of trade goods to the United States amounted to about 438.95 billion U.S. dollars; a significant increase from 1985 levels, when imports from China amounted to about 3.86 billion U.S. dollars. U.S. exports to China Compared to U.S. imports from China, the value of U.S. exports to China in 2020 amounted to 427.23billion U.S. dollars. China is the United States’ largest trading partner, while China was the United States third largest goods export market. Some of the leading exports to China in the agricultural sector included soybeans, cotton, and pork products. Texas was the leading state that exported to China in 2020 based on total value of goods exports, at 16.9 billion U.S. dollars. U.S. - China trade war The trade war between the United States and China is an economic conflict between two of the world’s largest national economies. It started in 2018 when U.S. President Donald Trump started putting tariffs and trade barriers on China, with the intent to get China to conform to Trump’s wishes. President Trump claimed that China has unfair trade businesses. As a result of this trade war, it has caused a lot of tension between the U.S. and China. Nearly half of American companies impacted by the U.S.-China trade tariffs said that the trade war increased their cost of manufacturing. The healthcare product industry has suffered the most from the trade war in regards to reduced profits.

U.S. soybean exports could fall by 20% amid ongoing trade tensions with China, affecting prices and market dynamics.

Beijing raises tariffs on US farm goods, intensifying trade conflict with a focus on soybeans and other key exports.

Soybeans rose to 1,007.26 USd/Bu on July 24, 2025, up 0.15% from the previous day. Over the past month, Soybeans's price has fallen 1.75%, and is down 9.48% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Soybeans - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

US agricultural exports are under pressure from global trade tensions, experiencing potential cancellations and volatility as major markets respond to geopolitical shifts.

Abstract: The objective of this study was to analyze the bilateral trade between Brazil and the main actors in international commercialization of soybeans - Argentina, the United States and China - aiming to verify how the practice of certain intervention actions influence the trade dynamics of this commodity. In this sense, scenarios were simulated based on the commercial practices adopted by these countries, and the equilibrium results were obtained through the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) and analyzed on the basis of Game Theory. These results were used to construct the matrix of payoffs, associated to the commercial strategies of countries considered as players. The results showed that policies to encourage production are effective ways for governments to make countries more competitive and to obtain commercial gains from or in conjunction with others. It was noted that China could become a major competitor among the soybean exporters, depending on the policy adopted by the government and by Chinese institutions. It was concluded that market access is the main source of trade gains for the products of soybean complex, and that the elimination of tariffs on imports of these products brings significant gains to Brazil, the United States and to Argentina, as well as ways to subsidize production and/or exports.

Paraguayan soy farmers face a volatile global trade environment, with challenges from US-China tariffs and upcoming EU regulations, yet opportunities arise from potential market shifts and improved weather conditions.

Oil prices have hit a four-year low as the US-China trade war escalates, impacting global markets and leading to significant declines in crude oil and base metal prices.

In Q1 2025, the Soy Protein Isolate (SPI) market in the USA experienced fluctuating trends. Prices rose moderately in January as importers accelerated purchases ahead of the proposed 10% tariff on Chinese goods set for February. This frontloading, combined with the approaching Chinese Lunar New Year and rising energy costs, put additional strain on supply chains and pushed prices upward. Shipment delays, especially at the Port of Los Angeles, worsened due to congestion and wildfire-related disruptions, further driving up operational costs.