In January 2025, global inflation rates and central bank interest rates showed significant variation across major economies. Most economies initiated interest rate cuts from mid-2024 due to declining inflationary pressures. The U.S., UK, and EU central banks followed a consistent pattern of regular rate reductions throughout late 2024. In early 2025, Russia maintained the highest interest rate at 21 percent, while Japan retained the lowest at 0.5 percent. Varied inflation rates across major economies The inflation landscape varies considerably among major economies. China had the lowest inflation rate at 0.5 percent in January 2025. In contrast, Russia maintained a high inflation rate of 9.9 percent. These figures align with broader trends observed in early 2025, where China had the lowest inflation rate among major developed and emerging economies, while Russia's rate remained the highest. Central bank responses and economic indicators Central banks globally implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-23 to combat inflation. The European Central Bank exemplified this trend, raising rates from 0 percent in January 2022 to 4.5 percent by September 2023. A coordinated shift among major central banks began in mid-2024, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting further cuts through 2025 and 2026.

China External Debt: NTR: PS: Bilateral Concessional data was reported at -131.671 USD mn in 2023. This records an increase from the previous number of -132.548 USD mn for 2022. China External Debt: NTR: PS: Bilateral Concessional data is updated yearly, averaging 16.565 USD mn from Dec 1981 (Median) to 2023, with 41 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.038 USD bn in 2005 and a record low of -145.667 USD mn in 2017. China External Debt: NTR: PS: Bilateral Concessional data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s China – Table CN.World Bank.IDS: External Debt: Net Flows and Net Transfers: Annual. Public sector bilateral debt includes loans from governments and their agencies (including central banks), loans from autonomous bodies, and direct loans from official export credit agencies. Concessional debt is defined as loans with an original grant element of 35 percent or more. The grant element of a loan is the grant equivalent expressed as a percentage of the amount committed. It is used as a measure of the overall cost of borrowing. The grant equivalent of a loan is its commitment (present) value, less the discounted present value of its contractual debt service; conventionally, future service payments are discounted at 5 percent. Net transfers are net flows minus interest payments during the year; negative transfers show net transfers made by the borrower to the creditor during the year. Data are in current U.S. dollars.

According to latest figures published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the average annual inflation rate in China ranged at around 0.2 percent in 2024 compared to the previous year. This was lower than formerly expected by the IMF. For 2025, projections by the IMF published in October 2024 expected the inflation rate to reach around 1.7 percent. The monthly inflation rate in China dropped to negative values in the second half of 2023 and remained comparatively low in 2024. Calculation of inflation The inflation rate is calculated based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for China. The CPI is computed using a product basket that contains a predefined range of products and services on which the average consumer spends money throughout the year. Included are expenses for groceries, clothes, rent, power, telecommunications, recreational activities, and raw materials (e.g. gas, oil), as well as federal fees and taxes. The product basked is adjusted every five years to reflect changes in consumer preference and has been updated in 2020 for the last time. The inflation rate is then calculated using changes in the CPI. As the inflation of a country is seen as a key economic indicator, it is frequently used for international comparison. China's inflation in comparison Among the main industrialized and emerging economies worldwide, China displayed comparatively low inflation in 2023 and 2024. In previous years, China's inflation ranged marginally above the inflation rates of established industrialized powerhouses such as the United States or the European Union. However, this changed in 2021, as inflation rates in developed countries rose quickly, while prices in China only increased moderately. According to IMF estimates for 2024, Zimbabwe was expected to be the country with the highest inflation rate, with a consumer price increase of about 561 percent compared to 2023. In 2023, Turkmenistan had the lowest price increase worldwide with prices actually decreasing by about 1.7 percent.

China External Debt: NTR: PRVG: Commercial Banks data was reported at -6.883 USD mn in 2020. This records an increase from the previous number of -14.169 USD mn for 2019. China External Debt: NTR: PRVG: Commercial Banks data is updated yearly, averaging -14.241 USD mn from Dec 1991 (Median) to 2020, with 24 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 259.000 USD mn in 2005 and a record low of -93.360 USD mn in 1996. China External Debt: NTR: PRVG: Commercial Banks data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s China – Table CN.World Bank.IDS: External Debt: Net Flows and Net Transfers: Annual. Private sector guaranteed by Public Sector commercial bank loans from private banks and other private financial institutions. Net transfers are net flows minus interest payments during the year; negative transfers show net transfers made by the borrower to the creditor during the year. Data are in current U.S. dollars.

The Chinese economy has undergone a long-term transition reform, but there is still a planned economy characteristic in the financial sector, which is financial repression. Due to the existence of financial repression, China’s actual interest rate level should be lower than the Consumer Price Index (CPI). However, based on official China’s interest rates and CPI, over half of the years China’s actual interest rate remained higher than CPI by our calculation from 1999 to 2022. This is inconsistent with the financial repression that exists in China, and the main reason is the calculation methods of China’s CPI. China’s CPI measurement system originated from the planned economy era, which did not fully consider the rise in housing purchase prices, so the current CPI measurement system can be more realistically presented by taking the rise in housing prices into consider. The core idea of this study is to mining relevant official statistical data and calculate the proportion of Chinese residents’ expenditure on purchasing houses to their total expenditure. By taking the proportion of house purchases as the weight of house price factor, and taking the proportion of other consumption as the weight of official CPI, the Generalized CPI (GCPI) is formulated. The GCPI is then compared with market interest rates to determine the actual interest rate situation in China over the past 20 years. This study has found that if GCPI is used as a measure, China’s real interest rates have been negative for most years since 1999. Chinese residents have suffered the negative effects of financial repression over the past 20 years, and their property income cannot keep up with the actual losses caused by inflation. Therefore, it is believed that China’s CPI calculation method should be adjusted to take into account the rise in housing prices, so China’s actual inflation level could be more accurately reflected. In view of the above, deepening interest rate marketization reform and expand channels for financial investment are the future development goals of China’s financial system.

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China External Debt: NTR: PPG: Bilateral data was reported at -977.398 USD mn in 2023. This records an increase from the previous number of -1.598 USD bn for 2022. China External Debt: NTR: PPG: Bilateral data is updated yearly, averaging -18.019 USD mn from Dec 1981 (Median) to 2023, with 43 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.816 USD bn in 1995 and a record low of -4.796 USD bn in 2015. China External Debt: NTR: PPG: Bilateral data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s China – Table CN.World Bank.IDS: External Debt: Net Flows and Net Transfers: Annual. Bilateral debt includes loans from governments and their agencies (including central banks), loans from autonomous bodies, and direct loans from official export credit agencies. Net transfers are net flows minus interest payments during the year; negative transfers show net transfers made by the borrower to the creditor during the year. Data are in current U.S. dollars.

The graph shows per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in China until 2023, with forecasts until 2029. In 2023, per capita GDP reached around 12,600 U.S. dollars in China. That year, the overall GDP of China had amounted to 17.8 trillion U.S. dollars. Per capita GDP in China Gross domestic product is a commonly-used economic indicator for measuring the state of a country's economy. GDP is the total market value of goods and services produced in a country within a given period of time, usually a year. Per capita GDP is defined as the GDP divided by the total number of people in the country. This indicator is generally used to compare the economic prosperity of countries with varying population sizes.In 2010, China overtook Japan and became the world’s second-largest economy. As of 2023, it was the largest exporter and the second largest importer in the world. However, one reason behind its economic strength lies within its population size. China has to distribute its wealth among 1.4 billion people. By 2023, China's per capita GDP was only about one fourth as large as that of main industrialized countries. When compared to other emerging markets, China ranked second among BRIC countries in terms of GDP per capita. Future development According to projections by the IMF, per capita GDP in China will escalate from around 12,600 U.S. dollars in 2022 to 17,700 U.S. dollars in 2029. Major reasons for this are comparatively high economic growth rates combined with negative population growth. China's economic structure is also undergoing changes. A major trend lies in the shift from an industry-based to a service-based economy.

In January 2020, prior to the onset of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, three of the seven largest economies by GDP had negative yields for two-year government bonds (Japan, Germany and France). With the onset of the pandemic, two-year bond yields in these countries actually rose slightly - in contrast to the other major economies, where yields fell over this period. As of December 2024, yields for two-year government bonds exhibited fluctuations across all countries. Notably, Japan showed a slight upward trend, while China experienced a modest decline.Negative yields assume that investors lack confidence in economic growth, meaning many investments (such as stocks) may lose value. Therefore, it is preferable to take a small loss on government debt that carries almost no risk to the investor, than risk a larger loss on other investments. As both the yen and euro are considered very safe assets, Japanese, German and French bonds were already being held by many investors prior to the pandemic as a hedge against economic downturn. Therefore, with the announcement of fiscal responses to the pandemic by many governments around March 2020, the value of these assets rose as confidence increased (slightly) that the worst case may be avoided. At the same time, yields on bonds with a higher return fell, as investors sought out investments with a higher return that were still considered safe.

China External Debt: NTR: GG: Bonds data was reported at -21.994 USD bn in 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of 13.533 USD bn for 2021. China External Debt: NTR: GG: Bonds data is updated yearly, averaging 1.321 USD bn from Dec 1993 (Median) to 2022, with 28 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 45.092 USD bn in 2020 and a record low of -21.994 USD bn in 2022. China External Debt: NTR: GG: Bonds data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s China – Table CN.World Bank.IDS: External Debt: Net Flows and Net Transfers: Annual. General government debt from bonds that are either publicly issued or privately placed. Net transfers are net flows minus interest payments during the year; negative transfers show net transfers made by the borrower to the creditor during the year. Data are in current U.S. dollars.

China External Debt: NTR: PPG: Other Private Creditors data was reported at -632.039 USD mn in 2022. This records an increase from the previous number of -643.499 USD mn for 2021. China External Debt: NTR: PPG: Other Private Creditors data is updated yearly, averaging -363.158 USD mn from Dec 1981 (Median) to 2022, with 42 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 5.019 USD bn in 1992 and a record low of -4.370 USD bn in 2011. China External Debt: NTR: PPG: Other Private Creditors data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s China – Table CN.World Bank.IDS: External Debt: Net Flows and Net Transfers: Annual. Public and publicly guaranteed other private credits from manufacturers, exporters, and other suppliers of goods, and bank credits covered by a guarantee of an export credit agency. Net transfers are net flows minus interest payments during the year; negative transfers show net transfers made by the borrower to the creditor during the year. Data are in current U.S. dollars.

Germany’s affluent segment (including HNW and mass affluent individuals) has experienced robust growth in recent years. Affluent individuals accounted for almost a quarter of the total adult population in 2020 and held 84.5% of the country's total onshore liquid assets in 2020. German investors remain strongly biased towards deposits, with the asset class constituting over two thirds of overall balances and limiting the growth of the investment market. Between the Coronavirus Crash, the US-China trade war, and Brexit, many investors put any additional savings into negative interest-bearing but safe bank deposits. The overall retail and saving investments are expected to grow in Germany over the upcoming period, owing to the country’s economic recovery and vaccine rollout deriving investors confidence. Further, the country’s savings and investments market is expected to grow observing a growing preference for robo-advisory by the HNW investors. This demand has also been accelerated by the outbreak of the pandemic that has been a catalyst in increasing the use of digital products and services. Read More

China External Debt: NTR: Long-Term data was reported at -90.464 USD bn in 2023. This records an increase from the previous number of -125.101 USD bn for 2022. China External Debt: NTR: Long-Term data is updated yearly, averaging 5.302 USD bn from Dec 1981 (Median) to 2023, with 43 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 147.860 USD bn in 2020 and a record low of -125.101 USD bn in 2022. China External Debt: NTR: Long-Term data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s China – Table CN.World Bank.IDS: External Debt: Net Flows and Net Transfers: Annual. Net transfers are net flows minus interest payments during the year; negative transfers show net transfers made by the borrower to the creditor during the year. Long-term external debt is defined as debt that has an original or extended maturity of more than one year and that is owed to nonresidents by residents of an economy and repayable in currency, goods, or services. Data are in current U.S. dollars.

China External Debt: NTR: GG: Multilateral data was reported at -978.741 USD mn in 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of 283.141 USD mn for 2021. China External Debt: NTR: GG: Multilateral data is updated yearly, averaging 198.549 USD mn from Dec 1982 (Median) to 2022, with 41 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.808 USD bn in 1995 and a record low of -3.010 USD bn in 2003. China External Debt: NTR: GG: Multilateral data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s China – Table CN.World Bank.IDS: External Debt: Net Flows and Net Transfers: Annual. General government multilateral loans include loans and credits from the World Bank, regional development banks, and other multilateral and intergovernmental agencies. Excluded are loans from funds administered by an international organization on behalf of a single donor government; these are classified as loans from governments. Net transfers are net flows minus interest payments during the year; negative transfers show net transfers made by the borrower to the creditor during the year. Data are in current U.S. dollars.

China External Debt: NTR: Public and Publicly Guaranteed (PPG): The International Bank for Reconstuction and Development (IBRD) data was reported at -1.363 USD bn in 2023. This records a decrease from the previous number of -505.804 USD mn for 2022. China External Debt: NTR: Public and Publicly Guaranteed (PPG): The International Bank for Reconstuction and Development (IBRD) data is updated yearly, averaging 88.642 USD mn from Dec 1983 (Median) to 2023, with 41 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 703.959 USD mn in 1997 and a record low of -1.363 USD bn in 2023. China External Debt: NTR: Public and Publicly Guaranteed (PPG): The International Bank for Reconstuction and Development (IBRD) data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s China – Table CN.World Bank.IDS: External Debt: Net Flows and Net Transfers: Annual. Public and publicly guaranteed debt outstanding from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) is nonconcessional. Nonconcessional debt excludes loans with an original grant element of 35 percent or more. Net transfers are net flows minus interest payments during the year; negative transfers show net transfers made by the borrower to the creditor during the year. Data are in current U.S. dollars.

The gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of all major economies included except China was negative in 2020 following the COVID-19 pandemic. Growth rates were positive again in 2021, but stagnated in some countries in 2023 amid high inflation rates. What does GDP measure? GDP is the sum of all consumption, investment, government spending, and net exports in an economy. As such, different things drive the growth of each of these countries. Germany benefits from a high value of net exports, also known as its trade balance. Drawbacks of GDP growth as a metric GDP measures growth, but it does not capture welfare gains correctly in many cases. For example, carbon dioxide emissions often go hand in hand with a growing GDP. These emissions are from industry, such as coal power plants, or consumption, such as driving cars, but GDP does not measure the damage from these activities. Also, national debt is not incorporated into GDP.

China External Debt: NTR: General Government Sector data was reported at -23.477 USD bn in 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of 13.199 USD bn for 2021. China External Debt: NTR: General Government Sector data is updated yearly, averaging 955.627 USD mn from Dec 1981 (Median) to 2022, with 42 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 43.539 USD bn in 2020 and a record low of -23.477 USD bn in 2022. China External Debt: NTR: General Government Sector data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s China – Table CN.World Bank.IDS: External Debt: Net Flows and Net Transfers: Annual. General government is an external obligation of a public debtor, including the national government, a political subdivision (or an agency of either), and autonomous public bodies. Publicly guaranteed debt is an external obligation of a private debtor that is guaranteed for repayment by a public entity. Net transfers are net flows minus interest payments during the year; negative transfers show net transfers made by the borrower to the creditor during the year. Long-term external debt is defined as debt that has an original or extended maturity of more than one year and that is owed to nonresidents by residents of an economy and repayable in currency, goods, or services. Data are in current U.S. dollars.

China External Debt: NTR: PPG: Bilateral Concessional data was reported at -132.548 USD mn in 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of -97.767 USD mn for 2021. China External Debt: NTR: PPG: Bilateral Concessional data is updated yearly, averaging 18.629 USD mn from Dec 1981 (Median) to 2022, with 40 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.038 USD bn in 2005 and a record low of -145.667 USD mn in 2017. China External Debt: NTR: PPG: Bilateral Concessional data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s China – Table CN.World Bank.IDS: External Debt: Net Flows and Net Transfers: Annual. Bilateral debt includes loans from governments and their agencies (including central banks), loans from autonomous bodies, and direct loans from official export credit agencies. Concessional debt is defined as loans with an original grant element of 35 percent or more. The grant element of a loan is the grant equivalent expressed as a percentage of the amount committed. It is used as a measure of the overall cost of borrowing. The grant equivalent of a loan is its commitment (present) value, less the discounted present value of its contractual debt service; conventionally, future service payments are discounted at 5 percent. Net transfers are net flows minus interest payments during the year; negative transfers show net transfers made by the borrower to the creditor during the year. Data are in current U.S. dollars.

China External Debt: NTR: Private Non-Guaranteed data was reported at -137.039 USD bn in 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of 15.530 USD bn for 2021. China External Debt: NTR: Private Non-Guaranteed data is updated yearly, averaging 4.158 USD bn from Dec 1992 (Median) to 2022, with 31 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 86.420 USD bn in 2020 and a record low of -137.039 USD bn in 2022. China External Debt: NTR: Private Non-Guaranteed data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s China – Table CN.World Bank.IDS: External Debt: Net Flows and Net Transfers: Annual. Private nonguaranteed external debt is an external obligation of a private debtor that is not guaranteed for repayment by a public entity. Net transfers are net flows minus interest payments during the year; negative transfers show net transfers made by the borrower to the creditor during the year. Long-term external debt is defined as debt that has an original or extended maturity of more than one year and that is owed to nonresidents by residents of an economy and repayable in currency, goods, or services. Data are in current U.S. dollars.

Government bond spreads as of October 30, 2024, varied widely among the largest economies when compared to German Bunds and U.S. Treasury notes. Australia's bond spread was the higest against both, with 217.6 basis points (bps) over Germany and 27.1 bps over the U.S. In contrast, China and Japan display negative spreads, with Japan having the lowest spread at -328.1 bps against U.S. Treasuries. Italy, the United Kingdom, and Canada showed moderate spreads. Positive bond spreads indicate that a country’s government bonds have higher yields compared to the benchmark bonds - in this case, the German Bunds and U.S. Treasury notes. Higher spreads often signal perceived higher risk or economic uncertainty, as investors demand greater returns for holding these bonds. expectations. Conversely, negative spreads mean that these bonds offer lower yields than the benchmark. Negative spreads often indicate strong investor confidence, safe-haven status, or lower inflation expectations, as investors are willing to accept lower returns for the perceived stability of these bonds.