The region of present-day China has historically been the most populous region in the world; however, its population development has fluctuated throughout history. In 2022, China was overtaken as the most populous country in the world, and current projections suggest its population is heading for a rapid decline in the coming decades. Transitions of power lead to mortality The source suggests that conflict, and the diseases brought with it, were the major obstacles to population growth throughout most of the Common Era, particularly during transitions of power between various dynasties and rulers. It estimates that the total population fell by approximately 30 million people during the 14th century due to the impact of Mongol invasions, which inflicted heavy losses on the northern population through conflict, enslavement, food instability, and the introduction of bubonic plague. Between 1850 and 1870, the total population fell once more, by more than 50 million people, through further conflict, famine and disease; the most notable of these was the Taiping Rebellion, although the Miao an Panthay Rebellions, and the Dungan Revolt, also had large death tolls. The third plague pandemic also originated in Yunnan in 1855, which killed approximately two million people in China. 20th and 21st centuries There were additional conflicts at the turn of the 20th century, which had significant geopolitical consequences for China, but did not result in the same high levels of mortality seen previously. It was not until the overlapping Chinese Civil War (1927-1949) and Second World War (1937-1945) where the death tolls reached approximately 10 and 20 million respectively. Additionally, as China attempted to industrialize during the Great Leap Forward (1958-1962), economic and agricultural mismanagement resulted in the deaths of tens of millions (possibly as many as 55 million) in less than four years, during the Great Chinese Famine. This mortality is not observable on the given dataset, due to the rapidity of China's demographic transition over the entire period; this saw improvements in healthcare, sanitation, and infrastructure result in sweeping changes across the population. The early 2020s marked some significant milestones in China's demographics, where it was overtaken by India as the world's most populous country, and its population also went into decline. Current projections suggest that China is heading for a "demographic disaster", as its rapidly aging population is placing significant burdens on China's economy, government, and society. In stark contrast to the restrictive "one-child policy" of the past, the government has introduced a series of pro-fertility incentives for couples to have larger families, although the impact of these policies are yet to materialize. If these current projections come true, then China's population may be around half its current size by the end of the century.

In 2020, about 64.1 percent of the population in China was of working age between 15 and 59 years. The share of the working age Chinese population has been decreasing since the early 2010s and will shrink further in the coming decades.

From now until 2100, India and China will remain the most populous countries in the world, however China's population decline has already started, and it is on course to fall by around 50 percent in the 2090s; while India's population decline is projected to begin in the 2060s. Of the 10 most populous countries in the world in 2100, five will be located in Asia, four in Africa, as well as the United States. Rapid growth in Africa Rapid population growth across Africa will see the continent's population grow from around 1.5 billion people in 2024 to 3.8 billion in 2100. Additionally, unlike China or India, population growth in many of these countries is not expected to go into decline, and instead is expected to continue well into the 2100s. Previous estimates had projected these countries' populations would be much higher by 2100 (the 2019 report estimated Nigeria's population would exceed 650 million), yet the increased threat of the climate crisis and persistent instability is delaying demographic development and extending population growth. The U.S. as an outlier Compared to the nine other largest populations in 2100, the United States stands out as it is more demographically advanced, politically stable, and economically stronger. However, while most other so-called "advanced countries" are projected to see their population decline drastically in the coming decades, the U.S. population is projected to continue growing into the 2100s. This will largely be driven by high rates of immigration into the U.S., which will drive growth despite fertility rates being around 1.6 births per woman (below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman), and the slowing rate of life expectancy. Current projections estimate the U.S. will have a net migration rate over 1.2 million people per year for the remainder of the century.

In 2020, about 17.9 percent of the population in China had been 60 years and older. This share is growing rapidly and was estimated to reach 40 percent by 2050. China's aging population With China’s boomer generation growing old and life expectancy increasing at the same time, the number of people at an age of 60 or above nearly doubled between 2000 and 2020 and reached around 255 million. This development is even more pronounced for the age group of 80 and above, which nearly tripled and is expected to reach a size of roughly 132 million in 2050, up from only 32 million in 2020. At the same time, the share of the working-age population is forecasted to decrease gradually from 64 percent of the total population in 2020 to around 50 percent in 2050, which could pose a heavy economic strain on the social security system. The old-age dependency ratio, which denotes the relation of the old-age to the working-age population, is estimated to grow from 18.2 percent in 2020 to more than 50 percent in 2050, implying that by then, statistically, two working-age adults would have to support one elderly. Strain on the social security net During the last 15 years, China's government has successfully increased the coverage of the pension insurance and health insurance. Today, most of the people are covered by some kind of social insurance. Conditions in the pension system are generous, with a regular retirement age for males at 60 years and women at 50 or 55. With the number of retirees increasing quickly, the social insurance system is now under pressure. From an economic point of view, improving the productivity of China's economy would be the primary choice for mitigating alleged inconsistencies of the system. However, without increasing the burden on the working people while tightening payment conditions, balancing the social security net could prove to be challenging.

Whereas the population is expected to decrease somewhat until 2100 in Asia, Europe, and South America, it is predicted to grow significantly in Africa. While there were 1.5 billion inhabitants on the continent at the beginning of 2024, the number of inhabitants is expected to reach 3.8 billion by 2100. In total, the global population is expected to reach nearly 10.4 billion by 2100. Worldwide population In the United States, the total population is expected to steadily increase over the next couple of years. In 2024, Asia held over half of the global population and is expected to have the highest number of people living in urban areas in 2050. Asia is home to the two most populous countries, India and China, both with a population of over one billion people. However, the small country of Monaco had the highest population density worldwide in 2021. Effects of overpopulation Alongside the growing worldwide population, there are negative effects of overpopulation. The increasing population puts a higher pressure on existing resources and contributes to pollution. As the population grows, the demand for food grows, which requires more water, which in turn takes away from the freshwater available. Concurrently, food needs to be transported through different mechanisms, which contributes to air pollution. Not every resource is renewable, meaning the world is using up limited resources that will eventually run out. Furthermore, more species will become extinct which harms the ecosystem and food chain. Overpopulation was considered to be one of the most important environmental issues worldwide in 2020.

Since 1970, the median age of China’s population has continued to increase from around 20 years to around 37.5 years in 2020. According to estimates from the United Nations, the increasing trend will slow down when the median age will reach 50 years in the middle of the 21st century and will remain at around 60 years up to 2100. China’s aging population Although the median age of China’s population is still lower than in many developed countries, for example in Japan, the consequences of a rapidly aging population have already become a concern for the country’s future. As the most populated country in the world, the large labor force in China contributed to the country’s astonishing economic growth in the last decades. Nowadays however, the aging population is going to become a burden for China’s social welfare system and could change China’s economic situation. Reasons for the aging population Like in many other countries, increasing life expectancy is regarded as the main reason for the aging of the population. As healthcare and living standards have improved, life expectancy in China has also increased. In addition, the one-child policy led to a decreasing fertility rate in China, which further increased the share of older people in the society. Even though the one-child policy has been abolished in 2016, many young people are refraining from having children, largely due to the high costs of raising a child, career pressure and the pursuit of freedom.

This dataset contains key characteristics about the data described in the Data Descriptor Provincial and gridded population projection for China under shared socioeconomic pathways from 2010 to 2100. Contents:

    1. human readable metadata summary table in CSV format


    2. machine readable metadata file in JSON format 


      Versioning Note:Version 2 was generated when the metadata format was updated from JSON to JSON-LD. This was an automatic process that changed only the format, not the contents, of the metadata.

V1 dataset:Under the global framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), based on localized population and economic parameters, a Population Development Environment (PDE) model is adopted to construct population grid data for SSPs from 2020 to 2100; Using the Cobb Douglas model, construct economic data for SSPs from 2020 to 2100.The v1 dataset includes:Population grid data of the world, The Belt and Road region, and China, with a spatial resolution of 0.5°GDP grid data of the world, The Belt and Road region, and China, with a spatial resolution of 0.5 °Grid data on the output value of three industries in the Chinese region, with a spatial resolution of 0.1 °V2 dataset:Based on the data from the 7th National Population Census of China, starting from 2020, the parameters such as fertility rate, mortality rate, migration rate, and education level in the Population Development Environment (PDE) model were updated. Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-5), a new version (v2) of the total population and age and gender specific population projection dataset for China and its provinces from 2020 to 2100 was created. Based on the data from the 7th National Population Census and the 4th Economic Census of China, with 2020 as the starting year, the parameters of total factor productivity, capital stock, labor input, and capital elasticity coefficient in the Cobb Douglas model were updated. Under the shared SSP1-5, a new version (v2) of China and its provincial GDP projectiondataset from 2020 to 2100 was created.The v2 (2024 version) dataset includes:Total Population Data of China and Provinces (2020-2100)Population data by age and gender in China (2020-2100)China and Provincial GDP Data (2020-2100)

The graph shows the population aged 60 and older in China from 1950 to 2020, with forecasts up until 2100. In 2020, around 255.4 million Chinese had been 60 years or older.

Chart and table of China population density from 1950 to 2025. United Nations projections are also included through the year 2100.

Chart and table of Hong Kong Sar China population density from 1950 to 2025. United Nations projections are also included through the year 2100.

Population Grid for China under SSP2RCP8.5 from 2010 to 2100

The Country-Level Population and Downscaled Projections Based on Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B2 Scenario, 1990-2100, were based on the UN 1998 Medium Long Range Projection for the years 1995 to 2100. The official version projects population for 8 regions of the world including Africa, Asia (minus India and China), India, China, Europe, Latin America, Northern America, and Oceania. This data set is produced and distributed by the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN).

In 2020, about 12.65 percent of the population in China was of an age of 65 years and over. The share of the population aged 65 and older has been increasing since the 1970s and is expected to grow further until the late 2080s.

Population Grid for China under SSP4RCP6 from 2010 to 2100

The graph shows the population aged 80 and over in China from 1950 to 2020, with forecasts up until 2100. In 2020, about 32.3 million people in China had been 80 years and over.

This data set is aimed at the Chinese scenario, and constructs sub national population forecast data with detailed demographic attributes such as age, gender and education level, and the corresponding grid data set. This data is based on the five SSP scenario storylines. On the basis of considering the national fertility policy and the population ceiling policy of super cities, it estimates the information of population factors such as population size, age, sex and education level of 31 provinces in China from 2010 to 2100 under the SSPs scenario year by year, and establishes a 1km spatial resolution grid population dataset, which makes up for the vacancy of China's provinces and grid data, To meet the research needs of high spatial resolution.

According to latest figures, the Chinese population decreased by 1.39 million to around 1.408 billion people in 2024. After decades of rapid growth, China arrived at the turning point of its demographic development in 2022, which was earlier than expected. The annual population decrease is estimated to remain at moderate levels until around 2030 but to accelerate thereafter. Population development in China China had for a long time been the country with the largest population worldwide, but according to UN estimates, it has been overtaken by India in 2023. As the population in India is still growing, the country is very likely to remain being home of the largest population on earth in the near future. Due to several mechanisms put into place by the Chinese government as well as changing circumstances in the working and social environment of the Chinese people, population growth has subsided over the past decades, displaying an annual population growth rate of -0.1 percent in 2024. Nevertheless, compared to the world population in total, China held a share of about 18 percent of the overall global population in 2022. China's aging population In terms of demographic developments, the birth control efforts of the Chinese government had considerable effects on the demographic pyramid in China. Upon closer examination of the age distribution, a clear trend of an aging population becomes visible. In order to curb the negative effects of an aging population, the Chinese government abolished the one-child policy in 2015, which had been in effect since 1979, and introduced a three-child policy in May 2021. However, many Chinese parents nowadays are reluctant to have a second or third child, as is the case in most of the developed countries in the world. The number of births in China varied in the years following the abolishment of the one-child policy, but did not increase considerably. Among the reasons most prominent for parents not having more children are the rising living costs and costs for child care, growing work pressure, a growing trend towards self-realization and individualism, and changing social behaviors.

In 2020, the child and old-age dependency ratios in China ranged at around 25.9 and 18.2 percent respectively, summing up to a total dependency ratio of 44.1 percent. While the child dependency ratio is expected to drop slightly and then remain stable, the old-age dependency ratio will rise steadily in coming decades. Age demographics in China With a populace of 1.4 billion people by the end of 2023, China stands the country with the second largest population in the world. Since its foundation in 1949, the PRC has experienced high population growth. With the beginning of the reform period in the end of the 1970s, population growth decreased steadily. Finally, China's population size peaked in 2021 and entered a declining path. Falling birth rates in combination with higher life expectancy led to a continuously increasing median age of the population in China over the past five decades. The median age of the Chinese population is expected to rise further and to reach 50 years by the middle of the century. Development of the dependency ratio China has enjoyed a continuously growing work force since the late 1970s. Simultaneously, the total dependency ratio in China decreased from 80 percent in 1970 to about 37 percent in 2010. However, an important turning point was reached in 2011, as the total dependency ratio was set to increase again after 30 years of population bonus. As can be seen from the above graph, until 2100, child-dependency is estimated to remain steady around 15 to 20 percent. Old-age dependency on the other hand is expected to grow from about 12 percent in 2010 to 69 percent in 2060, implying a growing number of senior citizens that need support from the working population. The shift of age demographics in the near future in China is bound to have ineligible economical and social impacts. To learn more about age demographics in China, take a look at our dossier aging population in China.

In 2020, about 17.95 percent of the population in China was in child age between 0 and 14 years. The share of the children in the population has been decreasing since the 1970s and is expected to shrink further in the coming two decades until it reaches a level of less than ten percent of the total population.