According to latest figures, the Chinese population decreased by 1.39 million to around 1.408 billion people in 2024. After decades of rapid growth, China arrived at the turning point of its demographic development in 2022, which was earlier than expected. The annual population decrease is estimated to remain at moderate levels until around 2030 but to accelerate thereafter. Population development in China China had for a long time been the country with the largest population worldwide, but according to UN estimates, it has been overtaken by India in 2023. As the population in India is still growing, the country is very likely to remain being home of the largest population on earth in the near future. Due to several mechanisms put into place by the Chinese government as well as changing circumstances in the working and social environment of the Chinese people, population growth has subsided over the past decades, displaying an annual population growth rate of -0.1 percent in 2024. Nevertheless, compared to the world population in total, China held a share of about 17 percent of the overall global population in 2024. China's aging population In terms of demographic developments, the birth control efforts of the Chinese government had considerable effects on the demographic pyramid in China. Upon closer examination of the age distribution, a clear trend of an aging population becomes visible. In order to curb the negative effects of an aging population, the Chinese government abolished the one-child policy in 2015, which had been in effect since 1979, and introduced a three-child policy in May 2021. However, many Chinese parents nowadays are reluctant to have a second or third child, as is the case in most of the developed countries in the world. The number of births in China varied in the years following the abolishment of the one-child policy, but did not increase considerably. Among the reasons most prominent for parents not having more children are the rising living costs and costs for child care, growing work pressure, a growing trend towards self-realization and individualism, and changing social behaviors.

The graph shows the population growth in China from 2000 to 2024. In 2024, the Chinese population decreased by about 0.1 percent or 1.39 million to around 1.408 billion people. Declining population growth in China Due to strict birth control measures by the Chinese government as well as changing family and work situations of the Chinese people, population growth has subsided over the past decades. Although the gradual abolition of the one-child policy from 2014 on led to temporarily higher birth figures, growth rates further decreased in recent years. As of 2024, leading countries in population growth could almost exclusively be found on the African continent and the Arabian Peninsula. Nevertheless, as of mid 2024, Asia ranked first by a wide margin among the continents in terms of absolute population. Future development of Chinese population The Chinese population reached a maximum of 1,412.6 million people in 2021 but decreased by 850,000 in 2022 and another 2.08 million in 2023. Until 2022, China had still ranked the world’s most populous country, but it was overtaken by India in 2023. Apart from the population decrease, a clear growth trend in Chinese cities is visible. By 2024, around 67 percent of Chinese people lived in urban areas, compared to merely 36 percent in 2000.

China Population: Natural Growth Rate data was reported at -0.060 % in 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of 0.034 % for 2021. China Population: Natural Growth Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 1.203 % from Dec 1949 (Median) to 2022, with 74 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.333 % in 1963 and a record low of -0.457 % in 1960. China Population: Natural Growth Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by National Bureau of Statistics. The data is categorized under China Premium Database’s Socio-Demographic – Table CN.GA: Population: Natural Growth Rate: By Region.

About this dataset

Context

The dataset tabulates the China population over the last 20 plus years. It lists the population for each year, along with the year on year change in population, as well as the change in percentage terms for each year. The dataset can be utilized to understand the population change of China across the last two decades. For example, using this dataset, we can identify if the population is declining or increasing. If there is a change, when the population peaked, or if it is still growing and has not reached its peak. We can also compare the trend with the overall trend of United States population over the same period of time.

Key observations

In 2023, the population of China was 1,282, a 0.71% increase year-by-year from 2022. Previously, in 2022, China population was 1,273, a decline of 0.70% compared to a population of 1,282 in 2021. Over the last 20 plus years, between 2000 and 2023, population of China increased by 120. In this period, the peak population was 1,289 in the year 2020. The numbers suggest that the population has already reached its peak and is showing a trend of decline. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program (PEP).

Content

When available, the data consists of estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program (PEP).

Data Coverage:

• From 2000 to 2023

Variables / Data Columns

• Year: This column displays the data year (Measured annually and for years 2000 to 2023)
• Population: The population for the specific year for the China is shown in this column.
• Year on Year Change: This column displays the change in China population for each year compared to the previous year.
• Change in Percent: This column displays the year on year change as a percentage. Please note that the sum of all percentages may not equal one due to rounding of values.

Good to know

Margin of Error

Data in the dataset are based on the estimates and are subject to sampling variability and thus a margin of error. Neilsberg Research recommends using caution when presening these estimates in your research.

Custom data

If you do need custom data for any of your research project, report or presentation, you can contact our research staff at research@neilsberg.com for a feasibility of a custom tabulation on a fee-for-service basis.

Inspiration

Neilsberg Research Team curates, analyze and publishes demographics and economic data from a variety of public and proprietary sources, each of which often includes multiple surveys and programs. The large majority of Neilsberg Research aggregated datasets and insights is made available for free download at https://www.neilsberg.com/research/.

Recommended for further research

This dataset is a part of the main dataset for China Population by Year. You can refer the same here

Actual value and historical data chart for China Population Growth Annual Percent

In 2023, the natural growth rate of the population across China varied between 7.96 people per 1,000 inhabitants (per mille) in Tibet and -6.92 per mille in Heilongjiang province. The national total population growth rate turned negative in 2022 and ranged at -1.48 per mille in 2023. Regional disparities in population growth The natural growth rate is the difference between the birth rate and the death rate of a certain region. In China, natural population growth reached the highest values in the western regions of the country. These areas have a younger population and higher fertility rates. Although the natural growth rate does not include the direct effects of migration, migrants are often young people in their reproductive years, and their movement may therefore indirectly affect the birth rates of their home and host region. This is one of the reasons why Guangdong province, which received a lot of immigrants over the last decades, has a comparatively high population growth rate. At the same time, Jilin, Liaoning, and Heilongjiang province, all located in northeast China, suffer not only from low fertility, but also from emigration of young people searching for better jobs elsewhere. The impact of uneven population growth The current distribution of natural population growth rates across China is most likely to remain in the near future, while overall population decline is expected to accelerate. Regions with less favorable economic opportunities will lose their inhabitants faster. The western regions with their high fertility rates, however, have only small total populations, which limits their effect on China’s overall population size.

Population: Natural Growth Rate: Guangdong data was reported at 0.369 % in 2024. This records an increase from the previous number of 0.276 % for 2023. Population: Natural Growth Rate: Guangdong data is updated yearly, averaging 0.725 % from Dec 2000 (Median) to 2024, with 25 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 0.992 % in 2000 and a record low of 0.276 % in 2023. Population: Natural Growth Rate: Guangdong data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by National Bureau of Statistics. The data is categorized under China Premium Database’s Socio-Demographic – Table CN.GA: Population: Natural Growth Rate: By Region.

In 2020, about 17.9 percent of the population in China had been 60 years and older. This share is growing rapidly and was estimated to reach 40 percent by 2050. China's aging population With China’s boomer generation growing old and life expectancy increasing at the same time, the number of people at an age of 60 or above nearly doubled between 2000 and 2020 and reached around 255 million. This development is even more pronounced for the age group of 80 and above, which nearly tripled and is expected to reach a size of roughly 132 million in 2050, up from only 32 million in 2020. At the same time, the share of the working-age population is forecasted to decrease gradually from 64 percent of the total population in 2020 to around 50 percent in 2050, which could pose a heavy economic strain on the social security system. The old-age dependency ratio, which denotes the relation of the old-age to the working-age population, is estimated to grow from 18.2 percent in 2020 to more than 50 percent in 2050, implying that by then, statistically, two working-age adults would have to support one elderly. Strain on the social security net During the last 15 years, China's government has successfully increased the coverage of the pension insurance and health insurance. Today, most of the people are covered by some kind of social insurance. Conditions in the pension system are generous, with a regular retirement age for males at 60 years and women at 50 or 55. With the number of retirees increasing quickly, the social insurance system is now under pressure. From an economic point of view, improving the productivity of China's economy would be the primary choice for mitigating alleged inconsistencies of the system. However, without increasing the burden on the working people while tightening payment conditions, balancing the social security net could prove to be challenging.

China Population: Number of Natural Growth data was reported at -0.850 Person mn in 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of 0.480 Person mn for 2021. China Population: Number of Natural Growth data is updated yearly, averaging 12.085 Person mn from Dec 1950 (Median) to 2022, with 70 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 22.700 Person mn in 1963 and a record low of -3.040 Person mn in 1960. China Population: Number of Natural Growth data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by National Bureau of Statistics. The data is categorized under China Premium Database’s Socio-Demographic – Table CN.GA: Population: No of Birth, Death, Natural Growth, Birth Rate, Death Rate and Natural Growth Rate, Life Expectancy, Dependency Ratio.

In 2023, the growth rate by migration of the registered resident population in the Shanghai municipality was ***** per mille. In that year, the natural growth rate of the registered population in Shanghai was minus **** per mille.

Since 1970, the median age of China’s population has continued to increase from around ** years to around **** years in 2020. According to estimates from the United Nations, the increasing trend will slow down when the median age will reach ** years in the middle of the 21st century and will remain at around ** years up to 2100. China’s aging population Although the median age of China’s population is still lower than in many developed countries, for example in Japan, the consequences of a rapidly aging population have already become a concern for the country’s future. As the most populated country in the world, the large labor force in China contributed to the country’s astonishing economic growth in the last decades. Nowadays however, the aging population is going to become a burden for China’s social welfare system and could change China’s economic situation. Reasons for the aging population Like in many other countries, increasing life expectancy is regarded as the main reason for the aging of the population. As healthcare and living standards have improved, life expectancy in China has also increased. In addition, the one-child policy led to a decreasing fertility rate in China, which further increased the share of older people in the society. Even though the one-child policy has been abolished in 2016, many young people are refraining from having children, largely due to the high costs of raising a child, career pressure and the pursuit of freedom.

Population: Natural Growth Rate: Henan data was reported at -0.094 % in 2023. This records a decrease from the previous number of -0.008 % for 2022. Population: Natural Growth Rate: Henan data is updated yearly, averaging 0.518 % from Dec 2000 (Median) to 2023, with 24 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 0.714 % in 2000 and a record low of -0.094 % in 2023. Population: Natural Growth Rate: Henan data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by National Bureau of Statistics. The data is categorized under China Premium Database’s Socio-Demographic – Table CN.GA: Population: Natural Growth Rate: By Region.

Population: Natural Growth Rate: Xinjiang data was reported at 0.093 % in 2023. This records an increase from the previous number of 0.077 % for 2022. Population: Natural Growth Rate: Xinjiang data is updated yearly, averaging 1.086 % from Dec 2000 (Median) to 2023, with 24 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.217 % in 2000 and a record low of 0.056 % in 2021. Population: Natural Growth Rate: Xinjiang data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by National Bureau of Statistics. The data is categorized under China Premium Database’s Socio-Demographic – Table CN.GA: Population: Natural Growth Rate: By Region.

Population: Natural Growth Rate: Sichuan data was reported at -0.302 % in 2024. This records an increase from the previous number of -0.312 % for 2023. Population: Natural Growth Rate: Sichuan data is updated yearly, averaging 0.297 % from Dec 2000 (Median) to 2024, with 25 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 0.510 % in 2000 and a record low of -0.312 % in 2023. Population: Natural Growth Rate: Sichuan data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by National Bureau of Statistics. The data is categorized under China Premium Database’s Socio-Demographic – Table CN.GA: Population: Natural Growth Rate: By Region.

In 2024, around 21.83 million permanent residents were living in the administrative area of Beijing municipality. Back in 2017, the Beijing municipal government had announced plans to limit Beijing's population to 23 million by 2020 in order to mitigate the contradiction between rapid population growth and resource and environment restrictions.

Population: Usual Residence: Natural Growth Rate: Shaanxi: Xian data was reported at 0.360 ‰ in 2023. This records a decrease from the previous number of 0.780 ‰ for 2022. Population: Usual Residence: Natural Growth Rate: Shaanxi: Xian data is updated yearly, averaging 4.435 ‰ from Dec 2000 (Median) to 2023, with 24 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 7.200 ‰ in 2017 and a record low of 0.360 ‰ in 2023. Population: Usual Residence: Natural Growth Rate: Shaanxi: Xian data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Xian Municipal Bureau of Statistics. The data is categorized under China Premium Database’s Socio-Demographic – Table CN.GE: Population: Prefecture Level City: Usual Residence: Natural Growth Rate. Birth rate,death rate and natural growth rate of population are estimated by Xi'an Bureau of Statistics on the basis of population censuses, the one percent sample survey on population, or annual sample surveys on population changes.

In 2024, about 60.9 percent of the Chinese population was between 16 and 59 years old. Apart from the information given on broad age groups in this statistic, some more information is provided by a timeline for the age distribution and a population breakdown by smaller age groups. Demographic development in China China ranked as the second most populous country in the world with a population of nearly 1.41 billion as of mid 2024, surpassed only by India. As the world population reached more than eight billion in mid 2024, China represented almost one fifth of the global population. China's population increased exponentially between the 1950s and the early 1980s due to Mao Zedong's population policy. To tackle the problem of overpopulation, a one-child policy was implemented in 1979. Since then, China's population growth has slowed from more than two percent per annum in the 1970s to around 0.5 percent per annum in the 2000s, and finally turned negative in 2022. China's aging population One outcome of the strict population policy is the acceleration of demographic aging trends. According to the United Nations, China's population median age has more than doubled over the last five decades, from 18 years in 1970 to 37.5 years in 2020. Few countries have aged faster than China. The dramatic aging of the population is matched by slower growth. The total fertility rate, measuring the number of children a woman can expect to have in her life, stood at just around 1.2 children. This incremental decline in labor force could lead to future challenges for the Chinese government, causing instability in current health care and social insurance mechanisms. To learn more about demographic development of the rural and urban population in China, please take a look at our reports on population in China and aging population in China.

From now until 2100, India and China will remain the most populous countries in the world, however China's population decline has already started, and it is on course to fall by around 50 percent in the 2090s; while India's population decline is projected to begin in the 2060s. Of the 10 most populous countries in the world in 2100, five will be located in Asia, four in Africa, as well as the United States. Rapid growth in Africa Rapid population growth across Africa will see the continent's population grow from around 1.5 billion people in 2024 to 3.8 billion in 2100. Additionally, unlike China or India, population growth in many of these countries is not expected to go into decline, and instead is expected to continue well into the 2100s. Previous estimates had projected these countries' populations would be much higher by 2100 (the 2019 report estimated Nigeria's population would exceed 650 million), yet the increased threat of the climate crisis and persistent instability is delaying demographic development and extending population growth. The U.S. as an outlier Compared to the nine other largest populations in 2100, the United States stands out as it is more demographically advanced, politically stable, and economically stronger. However, while most other so-called "advanced countries" are projected to see their population decline drastically in the coming decades, the U.S. population is projected to continue growing into the 2100s. This will largely be driven by high rates of immigration into the U.S., which will drive growth despite fertility rates being around 1.6 births per woman (below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman), and the slowing rate of life expectancy. Current projections estimate the U.S. will have a net migration rate over 1.2 million people per year for the remainder of the century.

According to official figures, around 24.8 million permanent residents were living in the administrative area of Shanghai municipality in 2024. This was 71,900 people less than in the previous year. Population development in Shanghai During the economic reform and opening-up period, Shanghai’s population more than doubled and reached 24.5 million in 2013. However, the limits of demographic growth in Chinese megacities became increasingly apparent since the beginning of the 21st century. In 2017, the Shanghai municipal government planned to limit Shanghai's population and to keep the population within the 25 million-threshold until 2035. As a result, the total population has remained relatively stable since 2013. Furthermore, inhabitants are unevenly distributed across the city districts, with the central urban areas having population densities of around 20,000 people or more per square kilometer. Current demographic shifts Under the conditions of restricted demographic inflows, the effect of population aging becomes increasingly apparent in Shanghai. The city traditionally had a low birth rate compared to other regions in China. In recent years, the number of deaths exceeded the number of births, a development that most probably started in 2020. This development is also reflected in the share of people aged 65 and over which increased steadily in recent times. If migration barriers are not lowered, population decrease in Shanghai is likely in the future.

Population: Natural Growth Rate: Beijing data was reported at 0.001 % in 2024. This records an increase from the previous number of -0.050 % for 2023. Population: Natural Growth Rate: Beijing data is updated yearly, averaging 0.263 % from Dec 2000 (Median) to 2024, with 25 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 0.483 % in 2014 and a record low of -0.050 % in 2023. Population: Natural Growth Rate: Beijing data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by National Bureau of Statistics. The data is categorized under China Premium Database’s Socio-Demographic – Table CN.GA: Population: Natural Growth Rate: By Region.