In 2023, the average price of real estate in China was approximately ****** yuan per square meter, representing a decrease from the previous year. Rising prices in the real estate market Since the 1998 housing reform, property prices in China have been rising continuously. Housing in the country is now often unaffordable, especially considering the modest per capita income of Chinese households. Shanghai and Beijing even have some of the most competitive real estate markets in the world. The rapid growth in housing prices has increased wealth among homeowners, while it also led to a culture of speculation among buyers and real estate developers. Housing was treated as investments, with owners expecting the prices to grow further every year. Risk factors The expectation of a steadily growing real estate market has created a property bubble and a potential debt crisis. As Chinese real estate giants, such as China Evergrande and Country Garden, operate by continuously acquiring land plots and initiating new projects, which often require substantial loans and investments, a slowdown in property demands or a decline in home prices can significantly affect the financial situation of these companies, putting China’s banks in a vulnerable position. In addition, due to a lack of regulations and monetary constraints, the long-term maintenance issues of high-rise apartments are also a concern to the sustainable development of China’s cities.

Revenue for the Residential Real Estate industry in China is expected to decrease at a CAGR of 9.8% over the five years through 2025. This trend includes an expected decrease of 9.6% in the current year.Since August 2020, the People's Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission have proposed three debt indicators for real estate development and management companies through which the company's financial health can be rated. This new policy has exacerbated the company's debt pressure, making it unable to repay old debts by borrowing new debt. Some real estate companies faced a liquidity crisis.In 2022, the city's lockdown and laying-off caused by COVID-19 epidemic led to the pressure of delaying the delivery of houses. The industry's newly constructed and completed areas decreased significantly throughout the year. In addition, the epidemic has impacted sales in the industry, and some sales offices have been forced to close temporarily. In 2022, the residential sales area decreased by 26.8%, and the residential sales decreased by 31.2%.Industry revenue will recover at an annualized 0.7% over the five years through 2030. Over the next five years, the industry's drag on GDP will weaken, and industry growth will stabilize. However, high housing prices have become a major social problem in China. Under the measures on the principle that residential real estate is used for living, not speculation, the financial attributes of real estate will gradually weaken, and housing prices will tend to stabilize.

Chinese housing prices rose by over 10 percent per year in real terms between 2003 and 2014 and are now between two and ten times higher than the construction cost of apartments. At the same time, Chinese developers built 100 billion square feet of residential real estate. This boom has been accompanied by a large increase in the number of vacant homes, held by both developers and households. This boom may turn out to be a housing bubble followed by a crash, yet that future is far from certain. The demand for real estate in China is so strong that current prices might be sustainable, especially given the sparse alternative investments for Chinese households, so long as the level of new supply is radically curtailed. Whether that happens depends on the policies of the Chinese government, which must weigh the benefits of price stability against the costs of restricting urban growth.

Market Size and Growth: The China luxury residential real estate market was valued at $146.25 million in 2025 and is projected to reach $170.78 million by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 6.28% during the forecast period. Strong economic growth, rising disposable incomes, and increasing urbanization are fueling the demand for luxury residential properties in major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou. Key Trends and Drivers: The market is characterized by growing demand for premium amenities, such as smart home systems, rooftop gardens, and concierge services. Government policies are also encouraging the development of luxury residential properties, with increased investment in infrastructure and incentives for foreign investors. Additionally, the rise of the high-net-worth individual (HNWI) population in China and the increasing interest in international buyers are driving the market upwards. However, factors such as strict government regulations, rising construction costs, and limited land supply may pose challenges for the industry. Recent developments include: December 2022: A joint venture led by Shui On Land has won the land-use rights to develop a residential project on a plot in Shanghai’s Yangpu district with a bid of RMB 2.38 billion (USD 340 million). The parties plan to develop the 16,993.8 square metre (182,920 square foot) parcel on Pingliang Street into a heritage preservation project incorporating a high-end, low-density residential community. A wholly owned subsidiary of Shui On holds 60% of the JV, with the remaining 40% held by state-owned developer Shanghai Yangshupu., November 2022: China’s largest lenders ready to pump over USD 162 Billion of credit into the country’s property developers, as Xi Jinping’s government retreats from tight controls on leverage in the real estate sector that had sparked a property crisis. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), China’s largest lender by assets, announced it was extending credit lines totalling RMB 655 Billion (USD 92 Billion) to 12 developers.. Key drivers for this market are: 4., Higher incomes support4.; Massive industry change. Potential restraints include: 4., High imbalance in population versus real estate index. Notable trends are: Growth of urbanization driving luxury residential real estate market.

On the 2025 Fortune China 500 ranking for real estate companies, China’s leading real estate developer Poly Real Estate ranked first with a total revenue of ************ U.S. dollars, followed by China Vanke and Country Garden. Real estate market in ChinaIn the last 20 years, China’s real estate market has experienced its most prosperous development. Land purchase has also become an important source of financial revenue for many local governments. The housing price increased so rapidly, especially in larger cities, that the government had to take measures to restrict investment. With the slowdown of China’s economic development and gradually saturated market, people are also afraid of the burst of the real estate bubble. While the real estate price in smaller cities tended to stay stable or even decrease, there is still growing potential for real estate prices in larger cities, especially the first-tier cities. China’s consumers are increasingly interested in the high-quality real estate products built by leading real estate developers. Leading real estate developers in ChinaCompared to the ranking in 2021, there were ***** new members entering the leading ten real estate developer club in 2022. The larger developers became stronger as they had advantages in land acquisitions, financing, marketing and pricing power which is difficult for smaller developers to catch up with. Thus, consolidation is also very common among China’s real estate developers. In 2022, *** real estate giants disappeared from the Fortune 500 ranking list, Evergrande and Sunac. Affected by the changing real estate market, they were facing cash flow problems and were affected heavily by the debt crisis.

This paper employs the mixed-frequency Granger causality test, reverse unconstrained mixed-frequency data sampling models, and Chinese data from January 2006 to June 2024 to test the nexus between consumer confidence and the macroeconomy. The results show that changes in the real estate market, GDP, and urban unemployment rate are Granger causes of consumer confidence. In reverse, consumer confidence is a Granger cause of the CPI. Second, GDP and the real estate market (CPI and urban unemployment rate) have a significant positive (negative) impact on consumer confidence, while the conditions of industrial production, interest rate, and stock market do not. Third, the “animal spirits” extracted from consumer confidence cannot lead to noticeable fluctuations in China’s macroeconomy. This suggests that the “animal spirits” will not dominate economic growth, even though they affect the macroeconomy slightly and inevitably. The results are robust after replacing the dependent variable and considering the influence of the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.

On the 2024 Fortune China 500 ranking for real estate companies, China’s leading real estate developer Poly Real Estate ranked first with a total revenue of 74 million U.S. dollars, followed by Greenland Holdings and Country Garden. Real estate market in China  In the last 20 years, China’s real estate market has experienced its most prosperous development. Land purchase has also become an important source of financial revenue for many local governments. The housing price increased so rapidly, especially in larger cities, that the government had to take measures to restrict investment. With the slowdown of China’s economic development and gradually saturated market, people are also afraid of the burst of the real estate bubble. While the real estate price in smaller cities tended to stay stable or even decrease, there is still growing potential for real estate prices in larger cities, especially the first-tier cities. China’s consumers are increasingly interested in the high-quality real estate products built by leading real estate developers. Leading real estate developers in China  Compared to the ranking in 2021, there were three new members entering the leading ten real estate developer club in 2022. The larger developers became stronger as they had advantages in land acquisitions, financing, marketing and pricing power which is difficult for smaller developers to catch up with. Thus, consolidation is also very common among China’s real estate developers. In 2022, two real estate giants disappeared from the fortune 500 ranking list, Evergrande and Sunac. Affected by the changing real estate market, they were facing cash flow problems and were affected heavily by the debt crisis.

This paper employs the mixed-frequency Granger causality test, reverse unconstrained mixed-frequency data sampling models, and Chinese data from January 2006 to June 2024 to test the nexus between consumer confidence and the macroeconomy. The results show that changes in the real estate market, GDP, and urban unemployment rate are Granger causes of consumer confidence. In reverse, consumer confidence is a Granger cause of the CPI. Second, GDP and the real estate market (CPI and urban unemployment rate) have a significant positive (negative) impact on consumer confidence, while the conditions of industrial production, interest rate, and stock market do not. Third, the “animal spirits” extracted from consumer confidence cannot lead to noticeable fluctuations in China’s macroeconomy. This suggests that the “animal spirits” will not dominate economic growth, even though they affect the macroeconomy slightly and inevitably. The results are robust after replacing the dependent variable and considering the influence of the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.

In 2023, the average ratio of nonperforming real estate corporate loans of the leading Chinese banks stood at **** percent, a slight increase compared to the previous year. The ongoing real estate crisis changes the dynamic of the industry, which is why banks have to engage in risk management strategies to adapt to the new reality.

This paper employs the mixed-frequency Granger causality test, reverse unconstrained mixed-frequency data sampling models, and Chinese data from January 2006 to June 2024 to test the nexus between consumer confidence and the macroeconomy. The results show that changes in the real estate market, GDP, and urban unemployment rate are Granger causes of consumer confidence. In reverse, consumer confidence is a Granger cause of the CPI. Second, GDP and the real estate market (CPI and urban unemployment rate) have a significant positive (negative) impact on consumer confidence, while the conditions of industrial production, interest rate, and stock market do not. Third, the “animal spirits” extracted from consumer confidence cannot lead to noticeable fluctuations in China’s macroeconomy. This suggests that the “animal spirits” will not dominate economic growth, even though they affect the macroeconomy slightly and inevitably. The results are robust after replacing the dependent variable and considering the influence of the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.

This paper employs the mixed-frequency Granger causality test, reverse unconstrained mixed-frequency data sampling models, and Chinese data from January 2006 to June 2024 to test the nexus between consumer confidence and the macroeconomy. The results show that changes in the real estate market, GDP, and urban unemployment rate are Granger causes of consumer confidence. In reverse, consumer confidence is a Granger cause of the CPI. Second, GDP and the real estate market (CPI and urban unemployment rate) have a significant positive (negative) impact on consumer confidence, while the conditions of industrial production, interest rate, and stock market do not. Third, the “animal spirits” extracted from consumer confidence cannot lead to noticeable fluctuations in China’s macroeconomy. This suggests that the “animal spirits” will not dominate economic growth, even though they affect the macroeconomy slightly and inevitably. The results are robust after replacing the dependent variable and considering the influence of the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.

The graph shows national debt in China related to gross domestic product until 2024, with forecasts to 2030. In 2024, gross national debt ranged at around 88 percent of the national gross domestic product. The debt-to-GDP ratio In economics, the ratio between a country's government debt and its gross domestic product (GDP) is generally defined as the debt-to-GDP ratio. It is a useful indicator for investors to measure a country's ability to fulfill future payments on its debts. A low debt-to-GDP ratio also suggests that an economy produces and sells a sufficient amount of goods and services to pay back those debts. Among the important industrial and emerging countries, Japan displayed one of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios. In 2024, the estimated national debt of Japan amounted to about 250 percent of its GDP, up from around 180 percent in 2004. One reason behind Japan's high debt load lies in its low annual GDP growth rate. Development in China China's national debt related to GDP grew slowly but steadily from around 23 percent in 2000 to 34 percent in 2012, only disrupted by the global financial crisis in 2008. In recent years, China increased credit financing to spur economic growth, resulting in higher levels of debt. China's real estate crisis and a difficult global economic environment require further stimulating measures by the government and will predictably lead to even higher debt growth in the years ahead.

In 2023, the total investment in residential housing in Shanghai reached ****** billion yuan, representing an increase from the previous year. Since the housing market reform of the 1990s, investments in residential real estate in Shanghai skyrocketed, from less than **** billion yuan in 1991 to almost ** billion yuan in 2000. The figure grew further at a moderate speed until 2008, before substantial investments poured into the real estate sector after the global financial crisis.

As of December 2022, the value of total assets of the Chinese real estate developer Evergrande dropped to around **** trillion yuan. Between 2015 and 2020, the enterprise’s assets grew significantly, almost tripling within a five year period.

Missed bond payments

In late September 2021, Evergrande missed a payment of a U.S. dollar-denominated offshore bond which put the spotlight on the company’s dire financial situation. Evergrande Group has amassed more than *** trillion yuan of debt which was around two percent of China’s GDP. Real estate has been an important sector of the county’s economy and a systemic crisis would seriously impact economic development.

Ripple effect

The news of the financial predicament that one of China’s largest property developers has found itself in sent ripples through the real estate industry. For many years, the property sector was booming and the demand for housing was high. This allowed property developers to get away with speculative investments. Since the sector constitutes a significant share of the economy, the Chinese government implemented regulations to put a limit on enterprises’ reliance on debt financing.

In 2022, the Chinese property development company Sunac reported total liabilities of around ************ yuan and total assets of nearly *** trillion yuan. The Chinese real estate sector is witnessing a crisis sparked by the debt difficulties of Evergrande Group and other property developers. The challenges raised concerns and affected investor confidence, property sales, and revenues across the sector.

Housing markets are often characterized by price bubbles, and governments have instituted policies to stabilize them. Under this circumstance, this study addresses the following questions. (1) Does policy tightening change expectations in housing prices, revealing a regime change? (2) If so, what determines the housing market’s reaction to policy tightening? To answer these questions, we examine the effects of policy tightening that occurred in 2016 on the Chinese housing market where a price boom persisted in the post-2000 period. Using a log-periodic power law model and employing a modified multi-population genetic algorithm for parameter estimation, we find that tightening policy in China did not cause a market crash; instead, shifting the Chinese housing market from faster-than-exponential growth to a soft landing. We attribute this regime shift to low sensitivity in the Chinese housing market to global perturbations. Our findings suggest that government policies can help stabilize housing prices and improve market conditions when implemented expediently. Moreover, policymakers should consider preparedness for the possibility of an economic crisis and other social needs (e.g., housing affordability) for overall social welfare when managing housing price bubbles.

The revenue of Chinese property development company Sunac dropped further to around ** billion yuan in 2024 from the peak of ***** billion yuan in 2020. The Chinese real estate sector is witnessing a crisis sparked by the debt difficulties of Evergrande Group and other property developers. The challenge raised concerns and affected investor confidence, property sales, and revenues across the sector.

Title: Firm-Level Analysis of Bubble Formation in Chinese Real Estate Equities Economic Modelling This study investigates evidence of bubble preponderance in China’s real estate sector and seeks to identify the main determinants of exuberance in the equity prices of listed developers, relative to their dividend-based fundamentals. In contrast to the focus on property prices and rents that characterizes prior research, we emphasize real estate equity prices and firm-specific metrics. This shift in perspective, and the corresponding use of a dividend-based proxy, separates speculative-driven bubbles from those linked to fundamentals and thus enables us to better interpret the nature of exuberance as well as assess the alignment—or misalignment—between prices and fundamentals. Our empirical examination, based on the equity prices of 25 publicly listed developers included in the BICHODVP Chinese benchmark real estate index, detects bubbles in developer equity prices as well as the presence of common bubble dynamics among BICHODVP index components. Additionally, by incorporating firm-specific characteristics and macroeconomic variables, we provide a more granular understanding of how company characteristics—especially corporate valuation multiples and leverage—interact with broader market and policy conditions to generate equity price bubbles in the real estate sector.

Moderate rising of house prices are beneficial to the economic development. However, over high house prices worsen the economic distortions and thus hinder the development of the real economy. We use the stochastic frontier models to calculate the fundamental value in the housing in Chinese large and medium cities, and then obtain indexes which could measure the house prices’ deviations from the fundamental value. With the macroeconomic data in the city-level, this paper empirically investigates the effects of the house prices’ deviations on macro-economic variables like consumption, investment and output. The study reveals that the housing bubble exists in most Chinese cities, and first-tier cities fare the worst. House prices over the fundamental value, which could increase the scale of real estate investment, bring adverse impacts on GDP, as it causes declining civilian consumption and discourages real economy’s investment and production. The encouragement and the discouragement on macroeconomy caused by house prices’ deviation from its basic value take turns to play a key role in the process of China’ eco-nomic growth. In the early stage of China’s economic growth, the encouragement effect predominates. As urbanization and industrialization gradually upgrade to a higher level, the discouragement effect takes charge.

In 2022, the Chinese property development company Sunac reported total assets of nearly *** trillion yuan, dropping by over ***** percent compared to the year prior. The Chinese real estate sector is witnessing a crisis sparked by the debt difficulties of Evergrande Group and other property developers. The challenges raised concerns and affected investor confidence, property sales, and revenues across the sector.